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Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

Local Shape Analysis of the Hippocampus using Hierarchical Level-of-Detail Representations (계층적 Level-of-Detail 표현을 이용한 해마의 국부적인 형상 분석)

  • Kim Jeong-Sik;Choi Soo-Mi;Choi Yoo-Ju;Kim Myoung-Hee
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.11A no.7 s.91
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    • pp.555-562
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    • 2004
  • Both global volume reduction and local shape changes of hippocampus within the brain indicate their abnormal neurological states. Hippocampal shape analysis consists of two main steps. First, construct a hippocampal shape representation model ; second, compute a shape similarity from this representation. This paper proposes a novel method for the analysis of hippocampal shape using integrated Octree-based representation, containing meshes, voxels, and skeletons. First of all, we create multi-level meshes by applying the Marching Cube algorithm to the hippocampal region segmented from MR images. This model is converted to intermediate binary voxel representation. And we extract the 3D skeleton from these voxels using the slice-based skeletonization method. Then, in order to acquire multiresolutional shape representation, we store hierarchically the meshes, voxels, skeletons comprised in nodes of the Octree, and we extract the sample meshes using the ray-tracing based mesh sampling technique. Finally, as a similarity measure between the shapes, we compute $L_2$ Norm and Hausdorff distance for each sam-pled mesh pair by shooting the rays fired from the extracted skeleton. As we use a mouse picking interface for analyzing a local shape inter-actively, we provide an interaction and multiresolution based analysis for the local shape changes. In this paper, our experiment shows that our approach is robust to the rotation and the scale, especially effective to discriminate the changes between local shapes of hippocampus and more-over to increase the speed of analysis without degrading accuracy by using a hierarchical level-of-detail approach.

Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture Content, Soil Penetration Resistance and Crop Yield on the Leveled Upland in the Reclaimed Highland (고령지 개간지 밭의 토양수분과 경도 및 작물수량의 공간변이성)

  • Park, Chol-Soo;Yang, Su-Chan;Lee, Gye-jun;Lee, Jeong-Tae;Kim, Hak-Min;Park, Sang-Hoo;Kim, Dae-Hoon;Jung, Ah-Yeong;Hwang, Seon-Woong
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.123-135
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    • 2006
  • Spatial variability and distribution map of soil properties and the relationships between soil properties and crop yields are not well characterized in agroecosystems that have been land leveled to facilitate more cultivation of the new reclaimed sloping highland. Potato, onion, carrot, Chinese cabbage and radish were grown on the coarse sandy loam soil in 2004. Soil moisture content, soil penetration resistance and crop yield were sampled in the $10m{\times}50m$ field consisted of five plots. Sampling sites of each cultivation plot were 33 for the soil moisture, 11 for the soil penetration and 33 for the crop yield. The results of semivariance analysis, most of models were shown spherical equation. The significant ranges of each spatial variability model for the soil moisture, soil penetration and crop yield were broad as 33-35 meters in the potato cultivation plot, and that in the Chinese cabbage cultivation plot was narrow as 5-6 meters. The coefficient of variances (C.V.) of moisture, penetration and yield were various from 14 to 59 percents in five cultivation plots. The highest C.V. of potato yield was 59 percents, and that of the radish cultivation plot was as low as 14 percents. The required sample numbers for the determination of soil moisture content, soil penetration resistance and crop yield with error 10% at 0.05 significant level were ranged 8-40 for soil moisture, 7-25 for soil penetration and 424-4,678 for crop yield. The variogram and distribution map by kriging described field characteristics well so that the spatial variability would be useful for soil management for better efficiency and precision agriculture in the reclaimed highland.

A Study on the Acceptance of Convergence System of Broadcasting, and Telecommunication, and Their Relative Efficiency Focusing on IPFV (방송과 통신 융합시스템의 수용 및 상대적 효능에 관한 연구: IPTV를 중심으로)

  • Um, Myoung-Yong;Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Jai-Beam
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.25-49
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    • 2009
  • Advances in technology have resulted in the emergence of new information systems. The convergence of IT and manufacturing sectors has blurred the boundaries among industries. Also, such convergence has become established as a paradigm to build a new area. Especially the convergence of broadcasting and telecommunication, notably in the case of IPTV (Internet Protocol Television), is among the most salient examples of its kind in recent years as a major case of disruptive technology innovation. Despite its much fanfare, such convergence, however, has not fulfilled the expectation; it has not produced positive economic effects while negatively affecting the growth of IPIV. Stakeholders in and around IPIV including telecommunication companies, broadcasting corporations, and government bodies wish to gain control of IPTV under their wings. IPTV has drifted in the midst of conflicts among the stakeholders in and around IPTV, particularly telecommunication and broadcasting organizations in a broad sense. Our empirical research intends to deal with how audiences accept IPTV and how firms provide IPTV services to utilize their resources. Three research questions in this paper include, first, whether Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) can sufficiently explain the acceptance of IPTV as an information system. The second question concerns with empirically testing the playful aspect of IPTV to increase its audience acceptance. Last, but not least, this paper deals with how firms can efficiently and effectively allocate their limited resources to increase IPTV viewers. To answer those three main questions of our study, we collect data from 197 current subscribers of high speed internet service and/or cable/satellite television. Empirical results show that 'perceived usefulness (PU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' are significant. Also, 'perceived ease of use' is significantly related to 'perceived usefulness.' Perceived ease of handling IPTV without much effort can positively influence the perceived value of IPTV. In this regard, engineers and designers of IPTV should pay more attention to the user-friendly interface of IPTV. In addition, 'perceived playfulness (PP)' of IPTV is positively related to 'intention to use'. Flow, fun and entertainment have recently gained greater attention in the research concerned with information systems. Such attention is due to the changing features of information systems in recent years that combine the functional and leisure attributes. These results give practical implications to the design of IPTV that reflects not just leisure but also functional elements. This paper also investigates the relationship between 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' and 'perceived playfulness (PP).' PEU is positively related to pp. Audiences without fear can be attracted more easily to the user-friendly IPTV, thereby perceiving the fun and entertainment with ease. Practical implications from this finding are that, to attract more interest and involvement from the audience, IPTV needs to be designed with similar or even more user friendly interface. Of the factors related to 'intention to use', 'perceived usefulness (PU)' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' have greater impacts than 'perceived playfulness (PP).' Between PU and PEU, their impacts on 'intention to use' are not significantly different statistically. Managerial implications of this finding are that firms in preparation for the launch of IPTV service should prioritize the functions and interface of IPTV. This empirical paper also provides further insight into the ways in which firms can strategically allocate their limited resources so as to appeal to viewers, both current and potential, of IPTV.

Depth Control and Sweeping Depth Stability of the Midwater Trawl (중층트롤의 깊이바꿈과 소해심도의 안정성)

  • 장지원
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1973
  • For regulating the depth of midwater trawl nets towed at the optimum constant speed, the changes in the shape of warps caused by adding a weight on an arbitrary point of the warp of catenary shape is studied. The shape of a warp may be approximated by a catenary. The resultant inferences under this assumption were experimented. Accordingly feasibilities for the application of the result of this study to the midwater trawl nets were also discussed. A series of experiments for basic midwater trawl gear models in water tank and a couple of experiments of a commercial scale gears at sea which involve the properly designed depth control devices having a variable attitude horizontal wing were carried out. The results are summarized as follows: 1. According to the dimension analysis the depth y of a midwater trawl net is introduced by $$y=kLf(\frac{W_r}{R_r},\;\frac{W_o}{R_o},\;\frac{W_n}{R_n})$$) where k is a constant, L the warp length, f the function, and $W_r,\;W_o$ and $W_n$ the apparent weights of warp, otter board and the net, respectively, 2. When a boat is towing a body of apparent weight $W_n$ and its drag $D_n$ by means of a warp whose length L and apparent weight $W_r$ per unit length, the depth y of the body is given by the following equation, provided that the shape of a warp is a catenary and drag of the warp is neglected in comparison with the drag of the body: $$y=\frac{1}{W_r}\{\sqrt{{D_n^2}+{(W_n+W_rL)^2}}-\sqrt{{D_n^2+W_n}^2\}$$ 3. The changes ${\Delta}y$ of the depth of the midwater trawl net caused by changing the warp length or adding a weight ${\Delta}W_n$_n to the net, are given by the following equations: $${\Delta}y{\approx}\frac{W_n+W_{r}L}{\sqrt{D_n^2+(W_n+W_{r}L)^2}}{\Delta}L$$ $${\Delta}y{\approx}\frac{1}{W_r}\{\frac{W_n+W_rL}{\sqrt{D_n^2+(W_n+W_{r}L)^2}}-{\frac{W_n}{\sqrt{D_n^2+W_n^2}}\}{\Delta}W_n$$ 4. A change ${\Delta}y$ of the depth of the midwater trawl net by adding a weight $W_s$ to an arbitrary point of the warp takes an equation of the form $${\Delta}y=\frac{1}{W_r}\{(T_{ur}'-T_{ur})-T_u'-T_u)\}$$ Where $$T_{ur}^l=\sqrt{T_u^2+(W_s+W_{r}L)^2+2T_u(W_s+W_{r}L)sin{\theta}_u$$ $$T_{ur}=\sqrt{T_u^2+(W_{r}L)^2+2T_uW_{r}L\;sin{\theta}_u$$ $$T_{u}^l=\sqrt{T_u^2+W_s^2+2T_uW_{s}\;sin{\theta}_u$$ and $T_u$ represents the tension at the point on the warp, ${\theta}_u$ the angle between the direction of $T_u$ and horizontal axis, $T_u^2$ the tension at that point when a weights $W_s$ adds to the point where $T_u$ is acted on. 5. If otter boards were constructed lighter and adequate weights were added at their bottom to stabilize them, even they were the same shapes as those of bottom trawls, they were definitely applicable to the midwater trawl gears as the result of the experiments. 6. As the results of water tank tests the relationship between net height of H cm velocity of v m/sec, and that between hydrodynamic resistance of R kg and the velocity of a model net as shown in figure 6 are respectively given by $$H=8+\frac{10}{0.4+v}$$ $$R=3+9v^2$$ 7. It was found that the cross-wing type depth control devices were more stable in operation than that of the H-wing type as the results of the experiments at sea. 8. The hydrodynamic resistance of the net gear in midwater trawling is so large, and regarded as nearly the drag, that sweeping depth of the gear was very stable in spite of types of the depth control devices. 9. An area of the horizontal wing of the H-wing type depth control device was $1.2{\times}2.4m^2$. A midwater trawl net of 2 ton hydrodynamic resistance was connected to the devices and towed with the velocity of 2.3 kts. Under these conditions the depth change of about 20m of the trawl net was obtained by controlling an angle or attack of $30^{\circ}$.

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