• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.177-192
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• 2016

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.99-122
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• 2019

According to the recent IDC (International Data Corporation) report, as from 2025, the total volume of data is estimated to reach ten times higher than that of 2016, corresponding to 163 zettabytes. then the main body of generating information is moving more toward corporations than consumers. So-called "the wave of Big-data" is arriving, and the following aftermath affects entire industries and firms, respectively and collectively. Therefore, effective management of vast amounts of data is more important than ever in terms of the firm. However, there have been no previous studies that measure the effects of big data investment, even though there are number of previous studies that quantitatively the effects of IT investment. Therefore, we quantitatively analyze the Big-data investment effects, which assists firm's investment decision making. This study applied the Event Study Methodology, which is based on the efficient market hypothesis as the theoretical basis, to measure the effect of the big data investment of firms on the response of market investors. In addition, five sub-variables were set to analyze this effect in more depth: the contents are firm size classification, industry classification (finance and ICT), investment completion classification, and vendor existence classification. To measure the impact of Big data investment announcements, Data from 91 announcements from 2010 to 2017 were used as data, and the effect of investment was more empirically observed by observing changes in corporate value immediately after the disclosure. This study collected data on Big Data Investment related to Naver 's' News' category, the largest portal site in Korea. In addition, when selecting the target companies, we extracted the disclosures of listed companies in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market. During the collection process, the search keywords were searched through the keywords 'Big data construction', 'Big data introduction', 'Big data investment', 'Big data order', and 'Big data development'. The results of the empirically proved analysis are as follows. First, we found that the market value of 91 publicly listed firms, who announced Big-data investment, increased by 0.92%. In particular, we can see that the market value of finance firms, non-ICT firms, small-cap firms are significantly increased. This result can be interpreted as the market investors perceive positively the big data investment of the enterprise, allowing market investors to better understand the company's big data investment. Second, statistical demonstration that the market value of financial firms and non - ICT firms increases after Big data investment announcement is proved statistically. Third, this study measured the effect of big data investment by dividing by company size and classified it into the top 30% and the bottom 30% of company size standard (market capitalization) without measuring the median value. To maximize the difference. The analysis showed that the investment effect of small sample companies was greater, and the difference between the two groups was also clear. Fourth, one of the most significant features of this study is that the Big Data Investment announcements are classified and structured according to vendor status. We have shown that the investment effect of a group with vendor involvement (with or without a vendor) is very large, indicating that market investors are very positive about the involvement of big data specialist vendors. Lastly but not least, it is also interesting that market investors are evaluating investment more positively at the time of the Big data Investment announcement, which is scheduled to be built rather than completed. Applying this to the industry, it would be effective for a company to make a disclosure when it decided to invest in big data in terms of increasing the market value. Our study has an academic implication, as prior research looked for the impact of Big-data investment has been nonexistent. This study also has a practical implication in that it can be a practical reference material for business decision makers considering big data investment.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.23-38
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• 2016

Previous studies on information systems (IS) and finance suggest that information on stock message boards influence the investment decisions of individual investors. However, how information on online stock message boards influences an individual investor's buy or sell decisions is unclear. To address this research question, we investigate the relationship between a number of posts on stock message boards and order imbalance in stock markets. Order imbalance is defined as the difference between the daily sum of buy-side shares traded and the daily sum of sell-side shares traded. Therefore, order imbalance can suggest the direction of trades and the strength of the direction with trading volumes. In this regard, this study examines how the number of posts (information on stock message boards) influences order imbalance (stock trading behavior). We collected about 46,077 messages of 40 companies on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided based on in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the relationship between the numbers of posts and trading volumes. We also collected order imbalance data on individual investors. We then integrated the balanced panel data sets and analyzed them through vector regression. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior order imbalance. We believe that our findings contribute to knowledge in IS and finance. Furthermore, this study suggests that investors should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market sentiments.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.317-340
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• 2023

In a business context, ESG is defined as the use of environmental, social, and governance factors to assess a firm's progress in terms of sustainability. Social media has enabled the public to actively share firms' good and/or bad deeds, increasing public interest in ESG management. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association of firm performances with the respective sentiments towards each of environmental, social, and governance activities, as well as comprehensive ESG sentiments, which encompass all environmental, social, and governance sentiments. This study used panel regression models to examine the relationship between social media ESG sentiment and the Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) of 143 companies listed on the KOSPI 200. We collected data from 2018 to 2021, including sentiment data from a variety of social media channels, such as online communities, Instagram, blogs, Twitter, and other news. The results indicated that firm performance is significantly related to respective ESG and comprehensive ESG sentiments. This study has several implications. By using data from various social media channels, it presents an unbiased view of public ESG sentiment, rather than relying on ESG ratings, which may be influenced by rating agencies. Furthermore, the findings can be used to help firms determine the direction of their ESG management. Therefore, this study provides theoretical and practical insights for researchers and firms interested in ESG management.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.21-33
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• 2014

When the negative event is published, the company tends to go through the negative impact on the firm performance. Especially, with the SNS, the negative event is instantly spread on indefinite region so the impact seems bigger than the period before the SNS media appearance. It seems that everyone considers the SNS media impact on the firm performance quite big. However, there has been no empirical study on the impact comparison on the firm performance between pre and post SNS media occurrence periods. This study tries to empirically compare the impact of the negative event on the firm performance between pre and post SNS media appearance. Our study starts fromthe basic but not verified question; Does really the negative event have more negative impact in the post-SNS-occurrence period than in the pre-SNS-occurrence period? In order to examine the impact of the negative publicity on firm performance in two eras, pre and post SNS media appearance, we used CAR (Cumulative Abnormal Resturns) model. By using this model, we could verify the statistical significance of cumulative abnormal returns in market between before and after the events. For event samples, we focused on food manufacturers and collected the negative events from 1991 to 2003 for pre-SNS occurrence period, and from 2010 to 2013 for post-SNS occurrence period. Based on the listed food companies at KOSPI, we researched Naver News Library (newslibrary.naver.com) and Naver News (news.naver.com) for all the individual negative events published for both periods. Firm returns data were collected from TS 2000 (KOCO Info) and market portfolio data were collected from KRX Exchange. Through our empirical analysis, our finding is interesting to note that the type of events differently influences on the firm performance. With the SNS, the health-related events have influence on the firm performance 'after the event day' whereas the company behavior trust events have influence 'before the event day'. Our findings have implications for management. When a negative event directly related to or threatening customers or their life such as health, it is crucial to fix up the situation right after the event occurs. On the other hand, when a negative event is not publicly available information such as company behavior trust, it is important for marketers to strengthen the firms' trust reputation and control the bad WOM before the event.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.559-575
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• 2014

Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.