• Title/Summary/Keyword: K2(K2)

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Measuring the Public Service Quality Using Process Mining: Focusing on N City's Building Licensing Complaint Service (프로세스 마이닝을 이용한 공공서비스의 품질 측정: N시의 건축 인허가 민원 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2019
  • As public services are provided in various forms, including e-government, the level of public demand for public service quality is increasing. Although continuous measurement and improvement of the quality of public services is needed to improve the quality of public services, traditional surveys are costly and time-consuming and have limitations. Therefore, there is a need for an analytical technique that can measure the quality of public services quickly and accurately at any time based on the data generated from public services. In this study, we analyzed the quality of public services based on data using process mining techniques for civil licensing services in N city. It is because the N city's building license complaint service can secure data necessary for analysis and can be spread to other institutions through public service quality management. This study conducted process mining on a total of 3678 building license complaint services in N city for two years from January 2014, and identified process maps and departments with high frequency and long processing time. According to the analysis results, there was a case where a department was crowded or relatively few at a certain point in time. In addition, there was a reasonable doubt that the increase in the number of complaints would increase the time required to complete the complaints. According to the analysis results, the time required to complete the complaint was varied from the same day to a year and 146 days. The cumulative frequency of the top four departments of the Sewage Treatment Division, the Waterworks Division, the Urban Design Division, and the Green Growth Division exceeded 50% and the cumulative frequency of the top nine departments exceeded 70%. Higher departments were limited and there was a great deal of unbalanced load among departments. Most complaint services have a variety of different patterns of processes. Research shows that the number of 'complementary' decisions has the greatest impact on the length of a complaint. This is interpreted as a lengthy period until the completion of the entire complaint is required because the 'complement' decision requires a physical period in which the complainant supplements and submits the documents again. In order to solve these problems, it is possible to drastically reduce the overall processing time of the complaints by preparing thoroughly before the filing of the complaints or in the preparation of the complaints, or the 'complementary' decision of other complaints. By clarifying and disclosing the cause and solution of one of the important data in the system, it helps the complainant to prepare in advance and convinces that the documents prepared by the public information will be passed. The transparency of complaints can be sufficiently predictable. Documents prepared by pre-disclosed information are likely to be processed without problems, which not only shortens the processing period but also improves work efficiency by eliminating the need for renegotiation or multiple tasks from the point of view of the processor. The results of this study can be used to find departments with high burdens of civil complaints at certain points of time and to flexibly manage the workforce allocation between departments. In addition, as a result of analyzing the pattern of the departments participating in the consultation by the characteristics of the complaints, it is possible to use it for automation or recommendation when requesting the consultation department. In addition, by using various data generated during the complaint process and using machine learning techniques, the pattern of the complaint process can be found. It can be used for automation / intelligence of civil complaint processing by making this algorithm and applying it to the system. This study is expected to be used to suggest future public service quality improvement through process mining analysis on civil service.

Implementation Strategy for the Elderly Care Solution Based on Usage Log Analysis: Focusing on the Case of Hyodol Product (사용자 로그 분석에 기반한 노인 돌봄 솔루션 구축 전략: 효돌 제품의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2019
  • As the aging phenomenon accelerates and various social problems related to the elderly of the vulnerable are raised, the need for effective elderly care solutions to protect the health and safety of the elderly generation is growing. Recently, more and more people are using Smart Toys equipped with ICT technology for care for elderly. In particular, log data collected through smart toys is highly valuable to be used as a quantitative and objective indicator in areas such as policy-making and service planning. However, research related to smart toys is limited, such as the development of smart toys and the validation of smart toy effectiveness. In other words, there is a dearth of research to derive insights based on log data collected through smart toys and to use them for decision making. This study will analyze log data collected from smart toy and derive effective insights to improve the quality of life for elderly users. Specifically, the user profiling-based analysis and elicitation of a change in quality of life mechanism based on behavior were performed. First, in the user profiling analysis, two important dimensions of classifying the type of elderly group from five factors of elderly user's living management were derived: 'Routine Activities' and 'Work-out Activities'. Based on the dimensions derived, a hierarchical cluster analysis and K-Means clustering were performed to classify the entire elderly user into three groups. Through a profiling analysis, the demographic characteristics of each group of elderlies and the behavior of using smart toy were identified. Second, stepwise regression was performed in eliciting the mechanism of change in quality of life. The effects of interaction, content usage, and indoor activity have been identified on the improvement of depression and lifestyle for the elderly. In addition, it identified the role of user performance evaluation and satisfaction with smart toy as a parameter that mediated the relationship between usage behavior and quality of life change. Specific mechanisms are as follows. First, the interaction between smart toy and elderly was found to have an effect of improving the depression by mediating attitudes to smart toy. The 'Satisfaction toward Smart Toy,' a variable that affects the improvement of the elderly's depression, changes how users evaluate smart toy performance. At this time, it has been identified that it is the interaction with smart toy that has a positive effect on smart toy These results can be interpreted as an elderly with a desire to meet emotional stability interact actively with smart toy, and a positive assessment of smart toy, greatly appreciating the effectiveness of smart toy. Second, the content usage has been confirmed to have a direct effect on improving lifestyle without going through other variables. Elderly who use a lot of the content provided by smart toy have improved their lifestyle. However, this effect has occurred regardless of the attitude the user has toward smart toy. Third, log data show that a high degree of indoor activity improves both the lifestyle and depression of the elderly. The more indoor activity, the better the lifestyle of the elderly, and these effects occur regardless of the user's attitude toward smart toy. In addition, elderly with a high degree of indoor activity are satisfied with smart toys, which cause improvement in the elderly's depression. However, it can be interpreted that elderly who prefer outdoor activities than indoor activities, or those who are less active due to health problems, are hard to satisfied with smart toys, and are not able to get the effects of improving depression. In summary, based on the activities of the elderly, three groups of elderly were identified and the important characteristics of each type were identified. In addition, this study sought to identify the mechanism by which the behavior of the elderly on smart toy affects the lives of the actual elderly, and to derive user needs and insights.

The Characteristics and Performances of Manufacturing SMEs that Utilize Public Information Support Infrastructure (공공 정보지원 인프라 활용한 제조 중소기업의 특징과 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Keun-Hwan;Kwon, Taehoon;Jun, Seung-pyo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2019
  • The small and medium sized enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) are already at a competitive disadvantaged when compared to large companies with more abundant resources. Manufacturing SMEs not only need a lot of information needed for new product development for sustainable growth and survival, but also seek networking to overcome the limitations of resources, but they are faced with limitations due to their size limitations. In a new era in which connectivity increases the complexity and uncertainty of the business environment, SMEs are increasingly urged to find information and solve networking problems. In order to solve these problems, the government funded research institutes plays an important role and duty to solve the information asymmetry problem of SMEs. The purpose of this study is to identify the differentiating characteristics of SMEs that utilize the public information support infrastructure provided by SMEs to enhance the innovation capacity of SMEs, and how they contribute to corporate performance. We argue that we need an infrastructure for providing information support to SMEs as part of this effort to strengthen of the role of government funded institutions; in this study, we specifically identify the target of such a policy and furthermore empirically demonstrate the effects of such policy-based efforts. Our goal is to help establish the strategies for building the information supporting infrastructure. To achieve this purpose, we first classified the characteristics of SMEs that have been found to utilize the information supporting infrastructure provided by government funded institutions. This allows us to verify whether selection bias appears in the analyzed group, which helps us clarify the interpretative limits of our study results. Next, we performed mediator and moderator effect analysis for multiple variables to analyze the process through which the use of information supporting infrastructure led to an improvement in external networking capabilities and resulted in enhancing product competitiveness. This analysis helps identify the key factors we should focus on when offering indirect support to SMEs through the information supporting infrastructure, which in turn helps us more efficiently manage research related to SME supporting policies implemented by government funded institutions. The results of this study showed the following. First, SMEs that used the information supporting infrastructure were found to have a significant difference in size in comparison to domestic R&D SMEs, but on the other hand, there was no significant difference in the cluster analysis that considered various variables. Based on these findings, we confirmed that SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure are superior in size, and had a relatively higher distribution of companies that transact to a greater degree with large companies, when compared to the SMEs composing the general group of SMEs. Also, we found that companies that already receive support from the information infrastructure have a high concentration of companies that need collaboration with government funded institution. Secondly, among the SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure, we found that increasing external networking capabilities contributed to enhancing product competitiveness, and while this was no the effect of direct assistance, we also found that indirect contributions were made by increasing the open marketing capabilities: in other words, this was the result of an indirect-only mediator effect. Also, the number of times the company received additional support in this process through mentoring related to information utilization was found to have a mediated moderator effect on improving external networking capabilities and in turn strengthening product competitiveness. The results of this study provide several insights that will help establish policies. KISTI's information support infrastructure may lead to the conclusion that marketing is already well underway, but it intentionally supports groups that enable to achieve good performance. As a result, the government should provide clear priorities whether to support the companies in the underdevelopment or to aid better performance. Through our research, we have identified how public information infrastructure contributes to product competitiveness. Here, we can draw some policy implications. First, the public information support infrastructure should have the capability to enhance the ability to interact with or to find the expert that provides required information. Second, if the utilization of public information support (online) infrastructure is effective, it is not necessary to continuously provide informational mentoring, which is a parallel offline support. Rather, offline support such as mentoring should be used as an appropriate device for abnormal symptom monitoring. Third, it is required that SMEs should improve their ability to utilize, because the effect of enhancing networking capacity through public information support infrastructure and enhancing product competitiveness through such infrastructure appears in most types of companies rather than in specific SMEs.

Effects of Boliing, Steaming, and Chemical Treatment on Solid Wood Bending of Quercus acutissima Carr. and Pinus densiflora S. et. Z. (자비(煮沸), 증자(蒸煮) 및 약제처리(藥劑處理)가 상수리나무와 소나무의 휨가공성(加工性)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • So, Won-Tek
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.19-62
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    • 1985
  • This study was performed to investigate: (i) the bending processing properties of silk worm oak (Quercus acutissima Carr.) and Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora S. et Z.) by boiling and steaming treatments; (ii) the effects of interrelated factors - sapwood and heartwood, annual ring placement, softening temperature and time, moisture content. and wood defects on bending processing properties; (iii) the changing rates of bending radii after release from a tension strap, and (iv) the improving methods of bending process by treatment with chemicals. The size of specimens tested was $15{\times}15{\times}350mm$ for boiling and steaming treatments and $5{\times}10{\times}200mm$ for treatments with chemicals. The specimens were green for boiling treatments and dried to 15 percent for steaming treatments. The specimens for treatments with chemicals were soaked in saturated urea solution, 35 percent formaldehyde solution, 25 percent polyethylene glycol -400 solution, and 25 percent ammonium hydroxide solution for 5 days and immediately followed the bending process, respectively. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The internal temperature of silk worm oak and Korean red pine by boiling and steaming time was raised slowly to $30^{\circ}C$ but rapidly from $30^{\circ}C$ to $80-90^{\circ}C$ and then slowly from $80-90^{\circ}C$ to $100^{\circ}C$. 2. The softening time required to the final temperature was directly proportional to the thickness of specimen. The time required from $25^{\circ}C$ to $100^{\circ}C$ for 15mm-squared specimen was 9.6-11.2 minutes in silk worm oak and 7.6-8.1 minutes in Korean red pine. 3. The moisture content (M.C.) of specimen by steaming time was increased rapidly first 4 minutes in the both species, and moderately from 4 to 20 minutes and then slowly and constantly in silk worm oak, and moderately from 4 to 15 minutes and then slowly and constantly in Korean red pine. The M.C. of 15mm-squared specimen in 50 minutes of steaming was increased to 18.0 percent in the oak and 22.4 percent in the pine from the initial conditioned M.C. of 15 percent The rate of moisture adsorption measured was therefore faster in the pine than in the oak. 4. The mechanical properties of the both species were decreased significantly with the increase of boiling rime. The decrement by the boiling treatment for 60 minutes was measured to 36.6-45.0 percent in compressive strength, 12.5-17.5 percent in tensile strength, 31.6-40.9 percent in modulus of rupture, and 23.3-34.6 percent in modulus of elasticity. 5. The minimum bending radius (M.B.R.) of sapwood and heartwood was 60-80 mm and 90 mm in silk worm oak, and 260 - 300 mm and 280 - 300 mm in Korean red pine, respectively. Therefore, the both species showed better bending processing properties in sapwood than in heartwood. 6. The M.B.R. of edge-grained and flat-grained specimen in suk worm oak was 60-80 mm, but the M.B.R. in Korean red pine was 240-280 mm and 260-360 mm, respectively. Comparing the M.B.R. of edge-grained with flat-grained specimen, in the pine the edge-grained showed better bending processing property than the flat-grained. 7. The bending processing properties of the both species were improved by the rising of softening temperature from $40^{\circ}C$ to $100^{\circ}C$. The minimum softening temperature for bending was $90^{\circ}C$ in silk worm oak and $80^{\circ}C$ in Korean red pine, and the dependency of softening temperature for bending was therefore higher in the oak than in the pine. 8. The bending processing properties of the both species were improved by the increase of softening time as well as temperature, but even after the internal temperature of specimen reaching to the final temperature, somewhat prolonged softening was required to obtain the best plastic conditions. The minimum softening time for bending of 15 mm-squared silk worm oak and Korean red pine specimen was 15 and 10 minutes in the boiling treatment, and 30 and 20 minutes in the steaming treatment, respectively. 9. The optimum M.C. for bending of silk worm oak was 20 percent, and the M.C. above fiber saturation point rather degraded the bending processing property, whereas the optimum M.C. of Korean red pine needed to be above 30 percent. 10. The bending works in the optimum conditions obtained as seen in Table 24 showed that the M.B.R. of silk worm oak and Korean red pine was 80 mm and 240 mm in the boiling treatment, and 50 mm and 280 mm in the steaming treatment, respectively. Therefore, the bending processing property of the oak was better in the steaming than in the boiling treatment, but that of the pine better in the boiling than in the steaming treatment. 11. In the bending without a tension strap, the radio r/t of the minimum bending radius t to the thickness t of silk worm oak and Korean red pine specimen amounted to 16.0 and 21.3 in the boiling treatment, and 17.3 and 24.0 in the steaming treatment, respectively. But in the bending with a tension strap, the r/t of the oak and the pine specimen decreased to 5.3 and 16.0 in t he boiling treatment, and 3.3 and 18.7 in the steaming treatment, respectively. Therefore, the bending processing properties of the both species were significantly improved by the strap. 12. The effect of pin knot on the degradation of bending processing property was very severe in silk worm oak by side, e.g. 90 percent of the oak specimens with pin knot on the concave side were ruptured when bent to a 100 mm radius but only 10 percent of the other specimens with pin knot on the convex side were ruptured. 13. The changing rate in the bending radius of specimen bent to a 300 mm radius after 30 days of exposure to room temperature conditions was measured to 4.0-10.3 percent in the boiling treatment and 13,0-15.0 percent in the steaming treatment. Therefore, the degree of spring back after release was higher in the steaming than in the boiling treatment. And the changing rate of moisture-proofing treated specimen by expoxy resin coating was only -1.0.0 percent. 14. Formaldehyde, 35 percent solution, and 25 percent polyethylene glycol-400 solution found no effect on the plasticization of the both species, but saturated urea solution and 25 percent ammonium hydroxide solution found significant effect in comparison to non-treated specimen. But the effect of the treatment with chemicals alone was inferior to that of the steaming treatment, and the steaming treatment after the treatment with chemicals improved 10-24 percent over the bending processing property of steam-bent specimen. 15. Three plasticity coefficients - load-strain coefficient, strain coefficient, and energy coefficient - were evaluated to be appropriate for the index of bending processing property because the coefficients had highly significant correlation with the bending radius. The fitness of the coefficients as the index was good at load-strain coefficient, energy coefficient, and strain coefficient, in order.

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The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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Effect of Low Temperature Treatment of Seed Bulb and Planting Date on Plant Growth and Yield in Garlic (마늘의 파종기별(播種期別) 저온처리(低溫處理)의 차이(差異)가 생육(生育) 및 수량(收量)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Shin, Seong Lyon;Lee, Woo Sung
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.6
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    • pp.49-69
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    • 1988
  • In order to develop a cropping system that can produce garlic in the period of short supply from March to April, effects of low temperature treatment of seed bulbs and planting dates, starting date of low temperature treatment, days of low temperature treatment on plant growth, maturity and yield were studied in Southern strain, 'Namhae' and in Northern strain, 'Euiseong' of garlic (Allium sativum). The results obtained were as follows. In Sorthern strain, sprouting was significantly enhanced by low temperature treatment only in Sep. 14, and Sep. 29 plantings. Days to sprout were least in 30 days of low temperature treatment of Sep. 14 planting and in 45 days treatment of Sep. 29 planting. When considering on the beginning date of low temperature treatment, a marked difference was observed between treatments started before July 31 and after Aug. 15. Sprouting was most enhanced in 45 days low temperature treatment of Aug. 15 and Aug. 30 plantings. In Northern strain, sprouting was en hanced by low temperature treatment in planting from Sep. 29 to Nov. 13 and low temperature treatment for 60 days was most effective. Effect of low temperature treatment on early plant growth was observed in Sep. 14 and Sep. 29 plantings, but the effect on plant growth at intermediate stage or thereafter was observed in up to Oct. 29 plantings. Optimun days for low temperature treatment on growth enhancement was 45 and 60 days in Southern strain and 60 days in Northern strain in each planting dates. In Southern strain, the longer the low temperature treatment and the later the planting date the less the number of leaves developed. In Northern strain, normal leaves were not developed in plantings from Sep. 14 to Nov. 13. In Southern strain, clove differentiation and bulbing were earlist in 45 and 60 days treatment of Sep. 14, Sep. 29, and Oct. 14 planting initiated on July 31 and Aug. 15. In Northern strain, clove differentiation and bulbing were earlist in 60 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting initiated on Aug. 15 and Aug. 30. In treatment initiated later than above, longer the low temperature treatment the earlier the clove differentiation and bulbing in both Southern and Northern strains. The earlier the initiation date and the longer of low temperature treatment, the earlier bolting in southern strain. In Northern strain, bolting was most enhanced in 45 and 60 days of low temperature treatment initiated on Aug. 15 and Aug. 30. The longer the low temperature treatment in plantings thereafter, the earlier the bolting. The earlier the planting date garlic bulbs. Harvest date was earliest in 45 and 60 days low temperature treatment started from July 31 to Aug. 30 in Southern strain, and it was in 60 and 90 days low temperature treatment initiated from July 31 to Aug. 30 in Northern strain. Bulb weight was heaviest in 45 days low temperature treatment of Oct. 14 planting and next was in 45 days treatment of Sep. 29 planting in Southern strain. In Northern strain, bulb weight was heaviest in 60 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting and next was in 45 days treatment of Oct. 14 planting. When considered in the aspect of the beginning date of low temperature treatment, bulb weight was heaviest in 45 days treatment started on Aug. 30 in Southern strain and in 60 days treatment started on Aug. 15 in Northern strain. A high negative correlation between days to harvest and plant height on January 12, and a high positive correlation between days to harvest and days clove differentiation were observed. This indicates that enhanced plant growth and clove differentiation induced by low temperature treatment advanced the harvest date. A high negative correlation between bulb weight and days to clove differentiation, days to harvest suggests that the enhanced clove differentiation result and in heavier bulb weight. From the above results, it suggested that early crop of garlic can be harvested by planting at the period of Sep. 29 to Oct. 14 after 45 days of low temperature treatment of seed bulbs of Southern strain. Then harvest date can be shortened by 30 days compared to control and garlic can be harvested in early April.

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Territorial Expansion the King Võ (Võ Vương, 1738-1765) in the Mekong Delta: Variation of Tám Thực Chi Kế (strategy of silkworm nibbling) and Dĩ Man Công Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians) in the Way to Build a New World Order (무왕(武王, 1738-1765) 시기 메콩 델타에서의 영토 확장 추이: 제국으로 가는 길, '잠식지계(蠶食之計)'와 '이만공만(以蠻攻蠻)'의 변주)

  • CHOI, Byung Wook
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.37-76
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    • 2017
  • $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh has two faces in the history of territorial expansion of Vietnam into the Mekong delta. One is his heroic contribution to the $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ family gaining control over the large part of the Mekong delta. The other is his role to make the eyes of readers of Vietnamese history be fixed only to the present territory of Vietnam. To the readers, $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh's achievement of territorial expansion was the final stage of the nam $ti{\acute{\hat{e}}n$ of Vietnam. In fact, however, his achievement was partial. This study pays attention to the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ instead of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh in the history of the territorial expansion in the Mekong delta. King's goal was more ambitious. And the ambition was propelled by his dream to build a new world, and its order, in which his new capital, $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ was to be the center with his status as an emperor. To improve my assertion, three elements were examined in this article. First is the nature of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's new kingship. Second is the preparation and the background of the military operation in the Mekong Delta. The nature of the new territory is the third element of the discussion. In 1744, six years after this ascending to the throne, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương declared he was a king. Author points out this event as the departure of the southern kingdom from the traditional dynasties based on the Red River delta. Besides, the government system, northern custom and way of dressings were abandoned and new southern modes were adopted. $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương had enough tributary kingdoms such as Cambodia, Champa, Thủy $X{\tilde{a}}$, Hoả $X{\tilde{a}}$, Vạn Tượng, and Nam Chưởng. Compared with the $L{\hat{e}}$ empire, the number of the tributary kingdoms was higher and the number was equivalent to that of the Đại Nam empire of the 19th century. In reality, author claims, the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ real intention was to become an emperor. Though he failed in using the title of emperor, he distinguished himself by claiming himself as the Heaven King, $Thi{\hat{e}}n$ Vương. Cambodian king's attack on the thousands of Cham ethnics in Cambodian territory was an enough reason to the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ military intervention. He considered these Cham men and women as his amicable subjects, and he saw them a branch of the Cham communities in his realm. He declared war against Cambodia in 1750. At the same time he sent a lengthy letter to the Siamese king claiming that the Cambodia was his exclusive tributary kingdom. Before he launched a fatal strike on the Mekong delta which had been the southern part of Cambodia, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương renovated his capital $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ to the level of the new center of power equivalent to that of empire for his sake. Inflation, famine, economic distortion were also the features of this time. But this study pays attention more to the active policy of the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ as an empire builder than to the economic situation that has been told as the main reason for King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ annexation of the large part of the Mekong delta. From the year of 1754, by the initiative of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh, almost whole region of the Mekong delta within the current border line was incorporated into the territory of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương within three years, though the intention of the king was to extend his land to the right side of the Mekong Basin beyond the current border such as Kampong Cham, Prey Vieng, and Svai Rieng. The main reason was $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's need to expand his territory to be matched with that of his potential empire with the large number of the tributary kingdoms. King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ strategy was the variation of 'silkworm nibbling' and 'to strike barbarians by barbarians.' He ate the land of Lower Cambodia, the region of the Mekong delta step by step as silkworm nibbles mulberry leave(general meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực), but his final goal was to eat all(another meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực) the part of the Mekong delta including the three provinces of Cambodia mentioned above. He used Cham to strike Cambodian in the process of getting land from Long An area to $Ch{\hat{a}}u$ Đốc. This is a faithful application of the Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians). In addition he used Chinese refugees led by the Mạc family or their quasi kingdom to gain land in the region of $H{\grave{a}}$ $Ti{\hat{e}}n$ and its environs from the hand of Cambodian king. This is another application of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man. In sum, author claims a new way of looking at the origin of the imperial world order which emerged during the first half of the 19th century. It was not the result of the long history of Đại Việt empires based on the Red River delta, but the succession of the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ new world based on $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$. The same ways of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man and $T{\acute{a}}m$ Thực Chi $K{\acute{\hat{e}}}$ were still used by $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ descendents. His grandson Gia Long used man such as Thai, Khmer, Lao, Chinese, and European to win another man the '$T{\hat{a}}y$ Sơn bandits' that included many of Chinese pirates, Cham, and other mountain peoples. His great grand son Minh Mạng constructed a splendid empire. At the same time, however, Minh Mạng kept expanding the size of his empire by eating all the part of Cambodia and Cham territories.

Effect of Different PE Mulching Duration on the Competition Ability of Sesame Growing in Association with Various Weed Communities (비닐피복기간(被覆期間)이 잡초군락형성(雜草群落形成)에 참깨의 경합력(競合力)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Lee, J.I.;Kang, C.W.;Kwon, Y.W.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 1986
  • This experiment was conducted to determine the influence of weed competition in sesame and the periods for weed control. Competition periods (days), for which sesame was seeded under transparent polyethylene film at May 15, were 10, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, and full growth season of sesame. Weed control periods (days), for which sesame was seeded under black polyethylene film at June 15, were 10, 15, 30, 45, 60, and full growth season of sesame. Dominant weeds were Ponulaca oleracea, Digitaria sanguinalis, Acalypha australis, L. Cyperus arnuricus, Arenaria aesrphllifolia, Cardamine flexucosa, Mollugo Stricta and Digitaria eschaemum. The number of weeds was maximum at the 30 days after planting. Broad leaf weeds were dominant than grass weeds, and then decreased the total number of weeds by the reason of major decrease of broad leaf weeds. However, the weight of weeds increased continuously. No weeds appeared until the 15 days after planting and the weight of broad leaf weeds was heavier than that of grass weeds until 45 days after planting. However, grass weeds were heavier than broad leaf weeds after 60 days after planting. The hazards of weeds on the growth and development appeared seriously from the 60 to 75 days after planting, but main yield reduction appeared from 30 days after planting. Therefore once more hand weeding should be practiced within 30 days after planting to minimize yield decrease. Serious hazards by weed growing appeared by removing black PE film after 15 to 30 days after planting in growth characteristics and 30 days later in grain yield. Leaf growth showed maximum from 45 to 60 days after planting and then decreased as compared with the continuous increase of stem and root in optimum planting, transparent PE film mulch and hand weeding. Leaf growth didn't show reducing in PE film mulch and weedy check but total weight of weeds increased and growth of sesame decreased as compared to PE film mulch and hand weeding. Leaf, stem and root growth of sesame, and weed weight under black PE film mulch showed same tendancy and lower growth of sesame as compared with optimum planting, transparent PE film mulch. Correlation between sesame yield and weeds weight were r =$ -0.874^{**}$ in the optimum planting and r = $-0.712^{**}$ in the late planting, so that the more weeds increase, the lesser sesame yield.

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The Liability for Space Activity of Launching State of Space Object and Improvement of Korea's Space Policy (우주물체 발사국의 우주활동에 대한 책임과 우리나라 우주정책의 개선방향)

  • Lee, Kang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.295-347
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    • 2013
  • Korea launched the science satellite by the first launch vehicle Naro-ho(KSLV-1) at the Naro Space Center located at Oinarodo, Cohenggun Jellanamdo in August, 2009 and October, 2010. However, the first and second launch failed. At last, on January 30, 2013 the third launch of the launch vehicle Naro-ho has successfully launched and the Naro science satellite penetrated into the space orbit. Owing to the succeed of the launch of Naro-ho, Korea joined the space club by the eleventh turn following the United States, Russia, Japan and China. The United Nations adopted the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the Rescue Agreement of 1968, the Liability Convention of 1972, the Regislation Convention of 1976, and Moon Agreement of 1979. Korea ratified the above space-related treaties except the Moon Agreement. Such space-related treaties regulate the international liability for the space activity by the launching state of the space object. Especially the Outer Space Treaty regulates the principle concerning the state's liability for the space activity. Each State Party to the Treaty that launches or procures the launching of an object into outer space is internationally liable for damage to another State Party or to its natural or judicial persons by such object or its component parts on the earth, in air space or in outer space. Under the Liability Convention, a launching state shall be absolutely liable to pay compensation for damage caused by its space object on the surface of the earth or to aircraft in flight. The major nations of the world made national legislations to observe the above space-related treaties, and to promote the space development, and to regulate the space activity. In Korea, the United States, Russia and Japan, the national space-related legislation regulates the government's liability of the launching state of the space object. The national space-related legislations of the major nations are as follows : the Outer Space Development Promotion Act and Outer Space Damage Compensation Act of Korea, the National Aeronautic and Space Act and Commercial Space Launch Act of the United States, the Law on Space Activity of Russia, and the Law concerning Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and Space Basic Act of Japan. In order to implement the government's liability of the launching state of space object under space-related treaties and national legislations, and to establish the standing as a strong space nation, Korea shall improve the space-related policy, laws and system as follows : Firstly, the legal system relating to the space development and the space activity shall be maintained. For this matter, the legal arrangement and maintenance shall be made to implement the government's policy and regulation relating to the space development and space activity. Also the legal system shall be maintained in accordance with the elements for consideration when enacting the national legislation relevant to the peaceful exploration and use of outer space adopted by UN COPUOS. Secondly, the liability system for the space damage shall be improved. For this matter, the articles relating to the liability for the damage and the right of claiming compensation for the expense already paid for the damage in case of the joint launch and consigned launch shall be regulated newly. Thirdly, the preservation policy for the space environment shall be established. For this matter, the consideration and preservation policy of the environment in the space development and use shall be established. Also the rule to mitigate the space debris shall be adopted. Fourthly, the international cooperation relating to the space activity shall be promoted. For this matter, the international cooperation obligation of the nation in the exploration and use of outer space shall be observed. Also through the international space-related cooperation, Korea shall secure the capacity of the space development and enter into the space advanced nation.

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