• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.87 no.3
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• pp.358-365
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• 1998

To offer the basic information for sustainable production of forest resources and conservation of the global environment, change in potential natural vegetation (PNV) associated with climate change due to doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide ($2{\times}CO_2$) was estimated with the global natural vegetation mapping system based an K${\ddot{o}}$ppen scheme. The system interpolates climate data spherically to each grid cell, determines the vegetation types onto the grid cell, and produces potential vegetation map and area on the globe and continents. The climate data consist of the current, ($1{\times}CO_2$) climate prior to AD 1958 observed at some 2,000 stations and the doubling ($2{\times}CO_2$) climate estimated from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan. The vegetation zone under the $2{\times}CO_2$ climate scenario expanded mainly toward the poles due to the rise in temperature. The changed PNV area on the globe amounts to 1/3 (4.91 billion (G) ha) of the total land area (15.04 Gha). Kappa statistic for judging agreement between the patterns of vegetation distribution under $1{\times}CO_2$ climate and $2{\times}CO_2$ climates shows good agreement (0.63) for the globe as a whole. The most stable areas are desert and ice. The potential forest area (PFA) was estimated at 6.82 Gha of the land area in $2{\times}CO_2$ climate scenario. In terms of continental changes in PFA, North America and Asis are increased under the $2{\times}CO_2$ climate. However, the potential forest arms of the other continents are decreased by the climate. Europe has no change in the PFA. Especially, the expansion of desert area in Oceania would be accelerated by the $2{\times}CO_2$ climate.