• Title/Summary/Keyword: Investment Performance

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Predicting the Direction of the Stock Index by Using a Domain-Specific Sentiment Dictionary (주가지수 방향성 예측을 위한 주제지향 감성사전 구축 방안)

  • Yu, Eunji;Kim, Yoosin;Kim, Namgyu;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the amount of unstructured data being generated through a variety of social media has been increasing rapidly, resulting in the increasing need to collect, store, search for, analyze, and visualize this data. This kind of data cannot be handled appropriately by using the traditional methodologies usually used for analyzing structured data because of its vast volume and unstructured nature. In this situation, many attempts are being made to analyze unstructured data such as text files and log files through various commercial or noncommercial analytical tools. Among the various contemporary issues dealt with in the literature of unstructured text data analysis, the concepts and techniques of opinion mining have been attracting much attention from pioneer researchers and business practitioners. Opinion mining or sentiment analysis refers to a series of processes that analyze participants' opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions about selected products, services, organizations, social issues, and so on. In other words, many attempts based on various opinion mining techniques are being made to resolve complicated issues that could not have otherwise been solved by existing traditional approaches. One of the most representative attempts using the opinion mining technique may be the recent research that proposed an intelligent model for predicting the direction of the stock index. This model works mainly on the basis of opinions extracted from an overwhelming number of economic news repots. News content published on various media is obviously a traditional example of unstructured text data. Every day, a large volume of new content is created, digitalized, and subsequently distributed to us via online or offline channels. Many studies have revealed that we make better decisions on political, economic, and social issues by analyzing news and other related information. In this sense, we expect to predict the fluctuation of stock markets partly by analyzing the relationship between economic news reports and the pattern of stock prices. So far, in the literature on opinion mining, most studies including ours have utilized a sentiment dictionary to elicit sentiment polarity or sentiment value from a large number of documents. A sentiment dictionary consists of pairs of selected words and their sentiment values. Sentiment classifiers refer to the dictionary to formulate the sentiment polarity of words, sentences in a document, and the whole document. However, most traditional approaches have common limitations in that they do not consider the flexibility of sentiment polarity, that is, the sentiment polarity or sentiment value of a word is fixed and cannot be changed in a traditional sentiment dictionary. In the real world, however, the sentiment polarity of a word can vary depending on the time, situation, and purpose of the analysis. It can also be contradictory in nature. The flexibility of sentiment polarity motivated us to conduct this study. In this paper, we have stated that sentiment polarity should be assigned, not merely on the basis of the inherent meaning of a word but on the basis of its ad hoc meaning within a particular context. To implement our idea, we presented an intelligent investment decision-support model based on opinion mining that performs the scrapping and parsing of massive volumes of economic news on the web, tags sentiment words, classifies sentiment polarity of the news, and finally predicts the direction of the next day's stock index. In addition, we applied a domain-specific sentiment dictionary instead of a general purpose one to classify each piece of news as either positive or negative. For the purpose of performance evaluation, we performed intensive experiments and investigated the prediction accuracy of our model. For the experiments to predict the direction of the stock index, we gathered and analyzed 1,072 articles about stock markets published by "M" and "E" media between July 2011 and September 2011.

The Effect on Air Transport Sector by Korea-China FTA and Aviation Policy Direction of Korea (한·중 FTA가 항공운송 부문에 미치는 영향과 우리나라 항공정책의 방향)

  • Lee, Kang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.83-138
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    • 2017
  • Korea-China FTA entered into force on the 20th of December 2015, and one year elapsed after its effectuation as the FTA with China, our country's largest trading partner. Therefore, this study looks at the trends of air transport trade between Korea and China, and examines the contents of concessions to the air transport services sector in Korea-China FTA, and analyzes the impact on the air transport sector by Korea-China FTA, and proposes our country's aviation policy direction in order to respond to such impact. In 2016 the trends of air transport trade between Korea and China are as follows : The export amount of air transport trade to China was 40.03 billion dollars, down by 9.3% from the last year, and occupied 32.2% of the total export amount to China. The import amount of air transport trade from China was 24.26 billion dollars, down by 9.1% from the last year, and occupied 27.7% of the total import amount from China. The contents of concessions to the air transport services sector in Korea-China FTA are as follows : China made concessions to the aircraft repair and maintenance services and the computer reservation system services with limitations on market access and national treatment in the air transport services sector of the China Schedule of Specific Commitments of Korea-China FTA Chapter 8 Annex. Korea made concessions to the computer reservation system services, selling and marketing of air transport services, and aircraft repair and maintenance without limitations on market access and national treatment in the air transport services sector of the Korea Schedule of Specific Commitments of Korea-China FTA Chapter 8 Annex. The impact on the air transport sector by Korea-China FTA are as follows : As for the impact on the air passenger market, in 2016 the arrival passengers of the international flight from China were 9.96 million, up by 20.6% from the last year, and the departure passengers to China were 9.90 million, up by 34.8% from the last year. As for the impact on the air cargo market, in 2016 the exported goods volumes of air cargo to China were 105,220.2 tons, up by 6.6% from the last year, and imported goods volumes from China were 133,750.9 tons, up by 12.3% from the last year. Among the major items of exported air cargo to China, the exported goods volumes of benefited items in the Tariff Schedule of China of Korea-China FTA were increased, and among the major items of imported air cargo from China, the imported goods volumes of benefited items in the Tariff Schedule of Korea of Korea-China FTA were increased. As for the impact on the logistics market, in 2016 the handling performance of exported air cargo to China by domestic forwarders were 119,618 tons, down by 2.1% from the last year, and the handling performance of imported air cargo from China were 79,430 tons, down by 4.4% from the last year. In 2016 the e-commerce export amount to China were 109.16 million dollars, up by 27.7% from the last year, and the e-commerce import amount from China were 89.43 million dollars, up by 72% from the last year. The author proposes the aviation policy direction of Korea according to Korea-China FTA as follows : First, the open skies between Korea and China shall be pushed ahead. In June 2006 Korea and China concluded the open skies agreement within the scope of the third freedom and fourth freedom of the air for passenger and cargo in Sandong Province and Hainan Province of China, and agreed the full open skies of flights between the two countries from the summer season in 2010. However, China protested against the interpretation of the draft of the memorandum of understanding to the air services agreement, therefore the further open skies did not take place. Through the separate aviation talks with China from Korea-China FTA, the gradual and selective open skies of air passenger market and air cargo market shall be pushed ahead. Second, the competitiveness of air transport industry and airport shall be secured. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's air transport industry, the support system for the strengthening of national air carriers' competitiveness shall be prepared, and the new basis for competition of national air carriers shall be made, and the strategic network based on national interest shall be built. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's airports, particularly Incheon Airport, the competitiveness of the network for aviation demand creation shall be strengthened, and the airport facilities and safety infrastructure shall be expanded, and the new added value through the airport shall be created, and the world's No.1 level of services shall be maintained. Third, the competitiveness of aviation logistics enterprises shall be strengthened. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's aviation logistics enterprises, as the upbringing strategy of higher added value in response to the industry trends changes, the new logistics market shall be developed, and the logistics infrastructure shall be expanded, and the logistics professionals shall be trained. Additionally, as the expanding strategy of global logistics market, the support system for overseas investment of logistics enterprises shall be built, and according to expanding the global transport network, the international cooperation shall be strengthened, and the network infrastructure shall be secured. As for the strengthening methods of aviation logistics competitiveness of Incheon Airport, the enterprises' demand of moving in the logistics complex shall be responded, and the comparative advantage in the field of new growth cargo shall be preoccupied, and the logistics hub's capability shall be strengthened, and the competitiveness of cargo processing speed in the airport shall be advanced. Forth, in the subsequent negotiation of Korea-China FTA, the further opening of air transport services sector shall be secured. In the subsequent negotiation being initiated within two years after entry into force of Korea-China FTA, it is necessary to ask for the further opening of the concessions of computer reservation system services, and aircraft repair and maintenance services in which the concessions level of air transport services sector by China is insufficient compared to the concessions level in the existing FTA concluded by China. In conclusion, in order to respond to the impact on Korea's air passenger market, air cargo market and aviation logistics market by Korea-China FTA, the following policy tasks shall be pushed ahead : Taking into consideration of national air carriers' competitiveness and nation's benefits, the gradual and selective open skies shall be pushed ahead, and the support system to strengthen the competitiveness of air transport industry and airport shall be built, and entry into aviation logistics market by logistics enterprises shall be expanded, and the preparations to ask for the further opening of air transport services sector, low in the concessions level by China shall be made.

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