• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.123-139
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• 2019

The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.31-41
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• 2015

The telecommunication industry has been considered as a national fundamental infrastructure. However, due to the rapid evolution of technology and the change of industry market conditions, the telecommunication infrastructure needs no more huge space for facility and it leads its use to the mixed-use development based on private investment. This study intends to examine the financial feasibility of the development project for the optimal alternative use of telecommunication facility purpose site as a case study based on two types: contributed acceptance and multi-level designation. The NPA and IRR has been analyzed by the simulation of stochastic variables including rent price and its variation rate, vacancy rate, construction cost, capitalization rate and discount rate. The research finding indicates that the two types of development are satisfied with the financial feasibility and it is noteworthy that the rent price turns out to be the most critical factor for the project. Accordingly, it is expected that these research finding can be applied for providing the solid cases of financial feasibility analysis for the development project in limited use of telecommunication facility purpose site.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.15-21
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• 2007

This paper proposes an improved methodology for estimating traffic accident cost savings in the transport appraisal. Four major problems from the existing framework are identified and their alternatives are suggested. First, casualties in the established approach are classified by just two types of 'killed' and 'injured'. This study supplies the indices of fatality further details. Namely, road victims are regrouped by 'killed', 'seriously injured', 'slightly injured', and 'accident reports'. Those of railways are similarly sorted by 'killed', 'seriously injured', and 'slightly injured'. Second, damage only accidents are not satisfactorily considered in the current arrangement. The accidents should be considered as one of the accident types and the social cost of them should also be evaluated. Third, the unit cost of accidents is given by the total value. The unit cost is consisted of several elements and each loss would be useful for a policy frame. This study breaks down the total figure into four pieces of costs, namely production loss, medical treatment, property loss, and administrative costs. Finally, there is inconsistency in the audit between roads and railways. Road accidents are analyzed by road types. On the other hand, patronage or others is the classification rule of rail accident costs. This paper suggests a way that the accident costs of two modes can be coherently estimated based on the level of services by each mode. The result of this study is expected to help frame more cautious social overhead capital investment policies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.37-49
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• 1981

The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.159-176
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• 1996

This study is aimed at reviewing the methods of joint cost allocation and allocating the joint cost of estuary dam with specially repect to Kumgang Large-scale Agricultural Comprehensive Development Project. Apart from the water resource development project propelled by Water Resource Development Corporation in connection with Law of Multipurpose Dam Development, the Largescale Comprehensive Agricultural Development Projects couldn't ins-titutionally be carried out cost allocation of common facilities, even though it were concerned with irrigation, municipal and industrical water supply, flood control, sightseeing and industrial zone development components. To decrease farmer's burden of the project costs and, operation and maintenance costs, the joint costs of common facilities like estuary dam included in agricultural development projects have to be allocated by suitable method as alternative cost-remaining benefit method and the analytical activity should be supported by revising the concerned laws as Rural Development and Promotion and, Rural Rearrangement conpatible with the law for multipurpose dam development. Kumgang Agricultural Comprehensive Development Project was selected as a case study for the estimation of socio-economic benefits by project components and joint cost allocation of the estuary dam. The main results of the study are as follows; Joint cost allocation and unit charges by components 1. The project area will be 25,554ha with total project cost of 624,860 million won including the estuary dam cost of 120,843 million won. The project costs were ex-pressed by 1994 constant price. 2. Total quantity of water was estimated 365 million tons which were consisted of 245 million tons for irrigation, 73 million tons for municipal water and 47 million tons for industrial water. 3. The rates of joint cost allocation were amounted to 34.2% for agriculture, 2.5% for sightseeing, 45.7% for transportation, 11.8% for M & I water supply and 5.8% for flood control respectively. 4. The unit financial charges by project components were estimated at 7.88 won per ton for irrigation, 16.11won for M & I water, 1,686won per vehicle one pass, 977won per Pyeong according to the capital recovery method. The financial charges using straitline method for depreciation were estimated at 7.88won per ton for irrigation, 9.12won per ton for M & I water, 624won per vehicle one pass for transportation and 331won per Pyeong for sightseeing area. 5. The unit economic charges by project components were estimated at 21.1 won per ton for irrigation, 15.2won for M & I water, 977won per vehicle one pass, 977won per Pyeong according to the capital recovery method. The economic charges using straitline method for depreciation were estimated at 11.72won per ton for irrigation, 8.61won per ton for M & I water, 331won per vehicle one pass for transportation. Policy recommendation 1. The unit operation and maintenance costs for irrigation water in the paddy field couldn't be imposed as the water resource cost untreated. 2. The dam costs including investment cost and O & M cost, as a joint cost, had to be allocated by each benefited components as transportation, M & I water supply, flood control, irrigation and drainage, and sightseeing. But the agricultural comprehensive project have been dealt as an irrigation project without any appraisal socio-economic benefits and any allocating the joint cost of estuary dam. 3. All the associated project benefits and costs must be evaluated based on accounting principle and rent recovery rate of the project costs and O & M costs should be regulated by the laws concerned. 4. The rural development and promotion law and rural rearrangement law have to be revised comprising joint cost allocation considering free rider problems. 5. The government subsidy for the agricultural base development project has to be covered all the project costs. In case of common facilities representing joint cost allocation problems, all the allocated casts for other purposes like transportation and M & I water supply etc. should be recovered for formation in investment fund for agricultural base development and to procure O & M costs for irrigation facilities.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.233-265
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• 1996

We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

• Korean Association of Arts Management
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• no.51
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• pp.135-166
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• 2019

Recently, the Japan Cultural Agency announced a plan for revitalizing the art market represented by reading museums (advanced art museums) to promote industry through strengthening the sustainability and economics of art museums. Along with these policy announcements, the Japanese cultural system and Bypyeongje are divided into pros and cons, and there has been a heightened opposition, which is now in a state where policy promotion has been temporarily suspended. The opposite reason is that it does not meet the museum's inherent purpose of preservation and lore, and the reason for favoring that commercialism can ruin the art world is that the Japanese art society is other than art museums and museums Also, it consists of non-profit organizations, art festival administration organizations, support staff, volunteers, etc., but because of the high subsidy bias, no real labor costs are paid, which means that it is virtually neglected. Also, there is a vigilance that the art society itself, which reduces its reliance on subsidies in response to social changes, can survive. Seeing that the situation is not much different from Japan, Korea is also actively discussing new establishments of the National Art Bank, performing art appraisal and evaluation functions for revitalizing art works, art loan, art trust, etc. There is. As it is difficult to solve realistic problems with subsidies from the future situation, it is difficult for us to expand investment in culture, and culture and economy are united and linked. You will find a plan to make it operational. In this regard, it is thought that the examination of the cultural and economic agency's strategy, represented by the Japanese advanced art museums, gives us a meaningful suggestion.