• Title/Summary/Keyword: Intrusion prediction

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Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment: Radionuclide Release Sensitivity to Diminished Brine and Gas Flows to/from Transuranic Waste Disposal Areas

  • Day, Brad A.;Camphouse, R.C.;Zeitler, Todd R.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.450-457
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    • 2017
  • Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository releases are evaluated through the application of modified parameters to simulate accelerated creep closure, include capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and increase brine and gas saturation in the operations and experimental (OPS/EXP) areas. The modifications to the repository model result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the OPS/EXP areas. Brine flows up the borehole during a hypothetical drilling intrusion are nearly identical and brine flows up the shaft are decreased. The modified parameters essentially halt the flow of gas from the southern waste areas to the northern nonwaste areas, except as transported through the marker beds and anhydrite layers. The combination of slightly increased waste region pressures and very slightly decreased brine saturations result in a modest increase in spallings and no significant effect on direct brine releases, with total releases from the Culebra and cutting and caving releases unaffected. Overall, the effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository are insignificant, with total low-probability mean releases minimally increased. It is concluded that the modified OPS/EXP area parameters have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases.

A Study on Traffic Anomaly Detection Scheme Based Time Series Model (시계열 모델 기반 트래픽 이상 징후 탐지 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Kang-Hong;Lee, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.5B
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    • pp.304-309
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    • 2008
  • This paper propose the traffic anomaly detection scheme based time series model. We apply ARIMA prediction model to this scheme and transform the value of the abnormal symptom into the probability value to maximize the traffic anomaly symptom detection. For this, we have evaluated the abnormal detection performance for the proposed model using total traffic and web traffic included the attack traffic. We will expect to have an great effect if this scheme is included in some network based intrusion detection system.

The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

Comparison of Development Mechanisms of Two Heavy Snowfall Events Occurred in Yeongnam and Yeongdong Regions of the Korean Peninsula (영동과 영남 지역에서 발생한 두 대설의 발달 메커니즘 비교)

  • Park, Ji-Hun;Kim, Kyung-Eak;Heo, Bok-Haeng
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.9-36
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    • 2009
  • Two heavy snowfall events occurred in Yeongnam and Yeongdong regions of the Korean Peninsula during the period from 4 to 6 March 2005 are analyzed. The events were developed by two different meso-scale snow clouds associated with an extratropical low passing over the Western Pacific. Based on synoptic data, GOES-9 satellite images, and precipitation amount data, the events were named as Sokcho and Busan cases, respectively. We analyzed the development mechanism of the events using meterological variables from the NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) /NCAR(National Centers for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data such as potential vorticity(PV), divergence, tropopause undulation, static stability, and meridional wind circulation. The present analyses show that in the case of Sokcho, the cyclonic circulation in the lower atmosphere in the strong baroclinic region induced the cyclonic circulation in the upper atmosphere. The cyclonic circulation in the lower and upper atmosphere caused a heavy snowfall in the Sokcho region. In the case of Busan, the strong cyclonic circulation in the upper atmosphere was initiated by the stratospheric air intrusion with the high positive PV into the troposphere during the tropopause folding. The upper strong cyclonic circulation enhanced the cyclonic circulation in the lower disturbed atmosphere due to the extratropical low. This lower cyclonic circulation in turn, intensified the upper cyclonic circulation, that caused a heavy snowfall in the Busan region.

Numerical Analysis of Wave Agitations in Arbitrary Shaped Harbors by Hybrid Element Method (복합요소법을 이용한 항내 파낭 응답 수치해석)

  • 정원무;편종근;정신택;정경태
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.34-44
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    • 1992
  • A numerical model using Hybrid Element Method(HEM) is presented for the prediction of wave agitations in a harbor which are induced by the intrusion and transformation of incident short-period waves. A linear mild-slope equation including bottom friction is used as the governing equation and a partial absorbing boundary condition is used on solid boundaries. Functional derived in the present paper is based on the Chen and Mei(1974)'s concept which uses finite element net in the inner region and analytical solution of Helmholtz equation in the outer region. Final simultaneous equations are solved using the Gaussian Elimination Method. The model appears to be reasonably good from the comparison of numerical calculation with hydraulic experimental results of short-wave diffraction through a breakwater gap(Pos and Kilner, 1987). The problem of requring large computational memory could be overcome using 8-noded isoparametric elements.

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A Study for Joint Freezing in Concrete Pavement (콘크리트포장의 줄눈의 잠김에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Woo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1 s.7
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    • pp.165-176
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    • 2001
  • Joints in jointed concrete Pavement are designed to control against randomly occurred cracks within slabs, which may be caused by temperature or moisture variation. The advantage of these artificial cracks (joints) over naturally occurred cracks are easy access of protections, such as installation of joint seal and load transfer mechanism. The potential benefits of joint seals are to prevent infiltration of surface water through the joint into underlying soil and intrusion of incompressible materials (debris, fine size aggregate) in to the joint, which may prevent weakening of underlying soils and spallings due to excessive compressive stress, respectively. For the adequate design of joint seal, horizontal variation of joint widths (horizontal joint movements) are essential inputs. Based on long-term in-situ joint movement data of sixteen jointed concrete pavement sections in Long Term Performance Pavement Seasonal Monitoring Program (LTPP SMP), it was indicated that considerable Portion of joints showed no horizontal movements with change in temperature. This Phenomenon is called 'Joint Freezing'. Possible cause for joint freezing is that designed penetrated cracks do not occur at a joint. In this study, a model for the prediction of the ratio of freezing joints in a particular pavement sections is proposed. In addition, possible effects of joint freezing against pavement performance are addressed.

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An Optimal Implementation of Object Tracking Algorithm for DaVinci Processor-based Smart Camera (다빈치 프로세서 기반 스마트 카메라에서의 객체 추적 알고리즘의 최적 구현)

  • Lee, Byung-Eun;Nguyen, Thanh Binh;Chung, Sun-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2009
  • DaVinci processors are popular media processors for implementing embedded multimedia applications. They support dual core architecture: ARM9 core for video I/O handling as well as system management and peripheral handling, and DSP C64+ core for effective digital signal processing. In this paper, we propose our efforts for optimal implementation of object tracking algorithm in DaVinci-based smart camera which is being designed and implemented by our laboratory. The smart camera in this paper is supposed to support object detection, object tracking, object classification and detection of intrusion into surveillance regions and sending the detection event to remote clients using IP protocol. Object tracking algorithm is computationally expensive since it needs to process several procedures such as foreground mask extraction, foreground mask correction, connected component labeling, blob region calculation, object prediction, and etc. which require large amount of computation times. Thus, if it is not implemented optimally in Davinci-based processors, one cannot expect real-time performance of the smart camera.

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A Study of Radon Concentration in First Floor and Basement and Prediction of Annual Exposure Rate in Korea (국내 실내 라돈농도와 연간 피폭선량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Dae;Kim, Yoon-Shin;Son, Bu-Soon;Kim, Dae-Seon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.311-317
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate Rn concentration and annual radiation exposure level in the basement and first floor. The Rn Cup monitors were placed in different environments such as shopping stage, office building, Apartment, Hospital, house in Seoul from Match 1996 to April 1997 and CR-39 films were collected every two months. The mean radon concentration in the basement of house($88.6\;Bq/m^3$) showed the highest level among the areas, while radon concentration on the first floor of house($50.5\;Bq/m^3$) showed the higher than other areas. The annual radiation exposure dose that person on the floor / in the basement of differential place in the seoul can be exposed during living was estimated from 24.11 to 87.64 mRem/yr. This radiation dose is significantly lower than 130mRem maximum radiation dosage from the radon nuclide prescribed by the ICRP, with respect to the overall average exposure of the working adult. this study indicated that possible radon sources on the first floor / in the basement areas are radon intrusion from soil gas, construction materials, or ground water leaking. Further study is needed to quantitatively assess major contributions of radon-222 and health effect to radon exposure.

On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008 (폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Ryu, Chan-Su;Suh, Ae-Sook;Park, Jong-Seo;Chung, Hyo-Sang
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2009
  • The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

Prediction for Pore Structure of Cement Mortar Exposed to Freezing-Thawing Action by Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity Measurement (초음파 속도 측정을 통한 동결·융해 작용을 받는 시멘트 모르타르의 공극 구조 예측)

  • Pang, Gi-Sung;Lee, Kwang-Myong
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, the effect of freezing-thawing action on the dynamic modulus and porosity was examined by ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurement. UPV was measured every 30 cycles during the freezing-thawing test, and dynamic modulus and porosity of cement mortar were calculated by relationship among UPV, porosity and dynamic modulus. Porosity analysis was also performed to compare with calculated porosity by mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP). From the test, it was found that dynamic modulus of cement mortar was decreased 13% after 300 cycles. The calculated porosity was increased about 30% compared with the initial porosity before freezing-thawing action. The calculated porosity showed similar increase tendency with the porosity measured by MIP. So, it can be concluded that the porosity change of cementitious materials by freezing-thawing action can be predicted by UPV measurement.