• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• v.54 no.4
• /
• pp.611-622
• /
• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.379-402
• /
• 2021

Traditional approaches for structural health monitoring (SHM) seldom take ambient uncertainty (temperature, humidity, ambient vibration) into consideration, while their impacts on structural responses are substantial, leading to a possibility of raising false alarms. A few predictors model-based approaches deal with these uncertainties through complex numerical models running online, rendering the SHM approach to be compute-intensive, slow, and sometimes not practical. Also, with model-based approaches, the imperative need for a precise understanding of the structure often poses a problem for not so well understood complex systems. The present study employs a data-based approach coupled with Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to correlate recorded response time histories under varying temperature conditions to corresponding damage scenarios. EMD decomposes the response signal into a finite set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). A two-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (2DCNN) is further trained to associate these IMFs to the respective damage cases. The use of IMFs in place of raw signals helps to reduce the impact of sensor noise while preserving the essential spatio-temporal information less-sensitive to thermal effects and thereby stands as a better damage-sensitive feature than the raw signal itself. The proposed algorithm is numerically tested on a single span bridge under varying temperature conditions for different damage severities. The dynamic strain is recorded as the response since they are frame-invariant and cheaper to install. The proposed algorithm has been observed to be damage sensitive as well as sufficiently robust against measurement noise.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.579-586
• /
• 2018

Short-term prediction of travel speed has been widely studied using data-driven non-parametric techniques. There is, however, a lack of research on the prediction aimed at urban areas due to their complex dynamics stemming from traffic signals and intersections. The purpose of this study is to develop a hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting urban travel speed. The EEMD decomposes the time-series data of travel speed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residue. The decomposed IMFs represent local characteristics of time-scale components and they are predicted using an ANN, respectively. The IMFs can be predicted more accurately than their original travel speed since they mitigate the complexity of the original data such as non-linearity, non-stationarity, and oscillation. The predicted IMFs are summed up to represent the predicted travel speed. To evaluate the proposed method, the travel speed data from the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) in Daegu City are used. Performance evaluations are conducted targeting on the links that are particularly hard to predict. The results show the developed model has the mean absolute error rate of 10.41% in the normal condition and 25.35% in the break down for the 15-min-ahead prediction, respectively, and it outperforms the simple ANN model. The developed model contributes to the provision of the reliable traffic information in urban transportation management systems.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2015

This paper proposes an analytical mode decomposition (AMD) and Hilbert transform method for structural nonlinearity quantification and damage detection under earthquake loads. The measured structural response is first decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF) using the proposed AMD method. Each IMF is an amplitude modulated-frequency modulated signal with narrow frequency bandwidth. Then, the instantaneous frequencies of the decomposed IMF can be defined with Hilbert transform. However, for a nonlinear structure, the defined instantaneous frequencies from the decomposed IMF are not equal to the instantaneous frequencies of the structure itself. The theoretical derivation in this paper indicates that the instantaneous frequency of the decomposed measured response includes a slowly-varying part which represents the instantaneous frequency of the structure and rapidly-varying part for a nonlinear structure subjected to earthquake excitations. To eliminate the rapidly-varying part effects, the instantaneous frequency is integrated over time duration. Then the degree of nonlinearity index, which represents the damage severity of structure, is defined based on the integrated instantaneous frequency in this paper. A one-story hysteretic nonlinear structure with various earthquake excitations are simulated as numerical examples and the degree of nonlinearity index is obtained. Finally, the degree of nonlinearity index is estimated from the experimental data of a seven-story building under four earthquake excitations. The index values for the building subjected to a low intensity earthquake excitation, two medium intensity earthquake excitations, and a large intensity earthquake excitation are calculated as 12.8%, 23.0%, 23.2%, and 39.5%, respectively.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.48 no.12
• /
• pp.981-993
• /
• 2015

The analysis of hydrologic time series data is crucial for the effective management of water resources. Therefore, it has been widely used for the long-term forecasting of hydrologic variables. In tradition, time series analysis has been used to predict a time series without considering exogenous variables. However, many studies using decomposition have been widely carried out with the assumption that one data series could be mixed with several frequent factors. In this study, the empirical mode decomposition method was performed for decomposing a hydrologic time series data into several components, and each component was applied to the time series models, autoregressive moving average (ARMA). After constructing the time series models, the forecasting values are added to compare the results with traditional time series model. Finally, the forecasted estimates from ARMA model with empirical mode decomposition method showed better performance than sole traditional ARMA model indicated from comparing the root mean square errors of the two methods.

• Journal of KIISE
• /
• v.41 no.12
• /
• pp.1050-1057
• /
• 2014

Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based brain-computer interfaces (BCI) can be used for a number of purposes in a variety of industries, such as to replace body parts like hands and feet or to improve user convenience. In this paper, we propose a method to decompose and extract motor imagery EEG signal using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT). The EEG signal classification consists of the following three steps. First, during signal decomposition, the EMD is used to generate Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) from the EEG signal. Then during feature extraction, the power spectral density (PSD) is used to identify the frequency band of the IMFs generated. The FFT is used to extract the features for motor imagery from an IMF that includes mu rhythm. Finally, during classification, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used to classify the features of the motor imagery EEG signal. 10-fold cross-validation was then used to estimate the generalization capability of the given classifier., and the results show that the proposed method has an accuracy of 84.50% which is higher than that of other methods.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.22 no.5
• /
• pp.587-609
• /
• 2018

There is greater significance in identifying the incipient damages in structures at the time of their initiation as timely rectification of these minor incipient cracks can save huge maintenance cost. However, the change in the global dynamic characteristics of a structure due to these subtle damages are insignificant enough to detect using the majority of the current damage diagnostic techniques. Keeping this in view, we propose a hybrid damage diagnostic technique for detection of minor incipient damages in the structures. In the proposed automated hybrid algorithm, the raw dynamic signatures obtained from the structure are decomposed to uni-modal signals and the dynamic signature are reconstructed by identifying and combining only the uni-modal signals altered by the minor incipient damage. We use these reconstructed signals for damage diagnostics using ARMAX model. Numerical simulation studies are carried out to investigate and evaluate the proposed hybrid damage diagnostic algorithm and their capability in identifying minor/incipient damage with noisy measurements. Finally, experimental studies on a beam are also presented to compliment the numerical simulations in order to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed algorithm.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.115-131
• /
• 2017

Classical flutter of wind turbine blades indicates a type of aeroelastic instability with fully attached boundary layer where a torsional blade mode couples to a flapwise bending mode, resulting in a mutual rapid growth of the amplitudes. In this paper the monitoring problem of onset of flutter is investigated from a detection point of view. The criterion is stated in terms of the exceeding of a defined envelope process of a specific maximum torsional vibration threshold. At a certain instant of time, a limited part of the previously measured torsional vibration signal at the tip of blade is decomposed through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method, and the 1st Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) is assumed to represent the response in the flutter mode. Next, an envelope time series of the indicated modal response is obtained in terms of a Hilbert transform. Finally, a flutter onset criterion is proposed, based on the indicated envelope process. The proposed online flutter monitoring method provided a practical and direct way to detect onset of flutter during operation. The algorithm has been illustrated by a 907-DOFs aeroelastic model for wind turbines, where the tower and the drive train is modelled by 7 DOFs, and each blade by means of 50 3-D Bernoulli-Euler beam elements.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.26-31
• /
• 2016

In this paper, we proposed a scheme to mitigate noises based on the EMD scheme for heterogeneous communication systems. Noise-corrupted data can be decomposed into a finite number of IMF components. Using the EMD method, we can mitigate noise with eliminate noise-corrupted IMF components. We proposed iteration stop rule for reduce EMD computation time. Simulation results show that proposed EMD scheme based on proposed algorithm for iteration stop rule efficiently mitigates 3 types of noise and reduces its computational time.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.41 no.3
• /
• pp.121-133
• /
• 2019

Natural variability associated with a variety of large-scale climate modes causes regional differences in sea level rise (SLR), which is particularly remarkable in the Pacific Ocean. Because the superposition of the natural variability and the background anthropogenic trend in sea level can potentially threaten to inundate low-lying and heavily populated coastal regions, it is important to quantify sea level variability associated with internal climate variability and understand their interaction when projecting future SLR impacts. This study seeks to identify the dominant modes of sea level variability in the tropical Pacific and quantify how these modes contribute to regional sea level changes, particularly on the two strong El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ events that occurred in the winter of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. To do so, an adaptive data analysis approach, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), was undertaken with regard to two datasets of altimetry-based and in situ-based steric sea levels. Using this EEMD analysis, we identified distinct internal modes associated with El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varying from 1.5 to 7 years and low-frequency variability with a period of ~12 years that were clearly distinct from the secular trend. The ENSO-scale frequencies strongly impact on an east-west dipole of sea levels across the tropical Pacific, while the low-frequency (i.e., decadal) mode is predominant in the North Pacific with a horseshoe shape connecting tropical and extratropical sea levels. Of particular interest is that the low-frequency mode resulted in different responses in regional SLR to ENSO events. The low-frequency mode contributed to a sharp increase (decrease) of sea level in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific in the 2015/2016 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ but made a negative contribution to the sea level signals in the 1997/1998 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. This indicates that the SLR signals of the ENSO can be amplified or depressed at times of transition in the low-frequency mode in the tropical Pacific.