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Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

A Study on the Reproducibility of 3D Shape Model of Garden Cultural Heritage using Photogrammetry with SNS Photographs - Focused on Soswaewon Garden, Damyang(Scenic Site No.40) - (SNS 사진과 사진측량을 이용한 정원유산의 3차원 형상 재현 가능성 연구 - 명승 제40호 담양 소쇄원(潭陽 瀟灑園)을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Choong-Sik;Lee, Sang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2018
  • This study examined photogrammetric reconstruction techniques that can measure the original form of a cultural property utilizing photographs taken in the past. During the research process, photographs taken in the past as well as photograph on the internet of Soswaewon Garden in Damyang(scenic site 40) were collected and utilized. The landscaping structures of Maedae, Aiyangdan, Ogokmun Wall, and Yakjak and natural scenery Gwangseok, of which photographs can be taken from any 360 degree direction from a close distance or a far distance without any barriers in the way, were selected and tested for the possibility of reproducing three-dimensional shapes. The photography method of 151 landscape photographs (58.6%) from internet portal sites for the aforementioned five landscape subjects containing information on the date the photograph was taken, focal length, and exposure were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that the majority of the photographs tend to focus on important parts of each subject. In addition, we discovered that there are two or three photography methods that internet users preferred in regards to each landscape subject. For the purposes of the experiment, photographs in which a single scene consistently appears for each landscape subject and it was determined that there was a high level of preference related to the photography method were analyzed, and three-dimensional mesh shape model was produced with a photoscan program to analyze the reproducibility of three-dimensional shapes. Based on the results of the reproduction, it was relatively possible to reproduce three-dimensional shapes for artifacts such as Ogukmun wall, Maedae, and Aeyangdan, but it was impossible to reproduce three-dimensional images for natural scenery or an object that has similar texture such as Yakjak and Gwangseok. As a result of experimentation related to the reconstruction of three-dimensional shapes with the photographs taken on site using a photography method similar to that of the photographs selected as previously mentioned, there was success related to reproducing the three-dimensional shapes of Yakjak and Gwangseok, of which it was not possible to do so through the photographs that had been collected previously. In addition, through comparison of past and present images, it was possible to measure the exact sizes as well as discover any changes that have taken place. If past photographs taken by tourists or landscape architects of cultural properties can be obtained, the three-dimensional shapes from a particular period of time can be reproduced. If this technology becomes widespread, it will increase the level of accuracy and reliability in regards to measuring the past shapes of cultural landscape properties and examining any changes to the properties.

Collaboration Strategies of Fashion Companies and Customer Attitudes (시장공사적협동책략화소비자태도(时装公司的协同策略和消费者态度))

  • Chun, Eun-Ha;Niehm, Linda S.
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.4-14
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    • 2010
  • Collaboration strategies entail information sharing and other varied forms of cooperation that are mutually beneficial to the company and stakeholder groups. This study addresses the specific types of collaboration used in the fashion industry while also examining strategies that have been most successful for fashion companies and perceived benefits of collaboration from the customer perspective. In the present study we define fashion companies and brands as collaborators and their partners or stakeholders as collaboratees. We define collaboration as a cooperative relationship where more than two companies, brands or individuals provide customers with beneficial outcomes utilizing their own competitive advantages on an equal basis. Collaboration strategies entail information sharing and other varied forms of cooperation that are mutually beneficial to the company and stakeholder groups. Through collaboration, fashion companies have pursued both tangible differentiation, such as design and technology applications, and intangible differentiation such as emotional and psychological benefits to customers. As a result, collaboration within the fashion industry has become an important, value creating concept. This qualitative study utilized case studies and in-depth interview methodologies to examine customers' attitudes concerning collaboration in the fashion industry. A total of 173 collaboration cases were identified in Korean and international markets from 1998 through December 2008, focusing on fashion companies. Cases were collected from documented data including websites and industry data bases and top ranked portal search sites such as: Rankey.com; Naver, Daum, and Nate; and representative fashion information websites, Samsungdesignnet and Firstviewkorea. Cases were collected between November 2008 and February 2009. Cases were selected for the analysis where one or more partners were associated with the production of fashion products (excluding textile production), retail fashion products, or designer services. Additional collaboration case information was obtained from news articles, periodicals, internet portal sites and fashion information sites as conducted in prior studies (Jeong and Kim 2008; Park and Park 2004; Yoon 2005). In total, 173 cases were selected for analysis that clearly exhibited the benefits and outcomes of collaboration efforts and strategies between fashion companies and stakeholders. Findings show that the overall results show that for both partners (collaborator and collaboratee) participating in collaboration, that the major benefits are reduction of costs and risks by sharing resource such as design power, image, costs, technology and targets, and creation of synergy. Regarding types of collaboration outcomes, product/design was most important (55%), followed by promotion (21%), price (20%), and place (4%). This result shows that collaboration plays an important role in giving life to products and designs, particularly in the fashion industry which seeks for creative and newness. To be successful in collaboration efforts, results of the depth interviews in this study confirm that fashion companies should have a clear objective on why they are doing the collaboration. After setting the objective, they should select collaboratees that match their brand image and target market, make quality co-products that have definite concepts and differentiating factors, and also pay attention to increasing brand awareness. Based on depth interviews with customers, customer benefits were categorized into six factors: pursuit for individual character; pursuit for brand; pursuit for scarcity; pursuit for fashion; pursuit for economic efficiency; and pursuit for sociality. Customers also placed more importance on image, reputation, and trust of brands regarding the cases shown in the interviews. They also commented that strong branding should come first before other marketing strategies. However, success factors recognized by experts and customers in this study showed different results by subcategories. Thus, target customers and target market should be studied from various dimensions to develop appropriate strategies for successful collaboration.

Simultaneous Effect between eWOM and Revenues: Korea Movie Industry (온라인 구전과 영화 매출 간 상호영향에 관한 연구: 한국 영화 산업을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Jungho;Shim, Bum Jun;Kim, Byung-Do
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • Motion pictures are so typical experience goods that consumers tend to look for more credible information. Hence, movie audiences consider movie viewers' reviews more important than the information provided by the film distributor. Recently many portal sites allow consumers to post their reviews and opinions so that other people check the number of consumer reviews and scores before going to the theater. There are a few previous researches studying the electronic word of mouth(eWOM) effect in the movie industry. They found that the volume of eWOM influenced the revenue of the movie significantly but the valence of eWOM did not affect it much (Liu 2006). The goal of our research is also to investigate the eWOM effects in general. But our research is different from the previous studies in several aspects. First, we study the eWOM effect in Korean movie industry. In other words, we would like to check whether we can generalize the results of the previous research across countries. The similar econometric models are applied to Korean movie data that include 746,282 consumer reviews on 439 movies. Our results show that both the valence(RATING) and the volume(LNMSG) of the eWOM influence weekly movie revenues. This result is different from the previous research findings that the volume only influences the revenue. We conjectured that the difference of self construal between Asian and American culture may explain this difference (Kitayama 1991). Asians including Koreans have more interdependent self construal than American, so that they are easily affected by other people's thought and suggestion. Hence, the valence of the eWOM affects Koreans' choice of the movie. Second, we find the critical defect of the previous eWOM models and, hence, attempt to correct it. The previous eWOM model assumes that the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) is an independent variable affecting the movie revenue (LNREV). However, the revenue can influence the volume of the eWOM. We think that treating the volume of eWOM as an independent variable a priori is too restrictive. In order to remedy this problem, we employed a simultaneous equation in which the movie revenue and the volume of the eWOM can affect each other. That is, our eWOM model assumes that the revenue (LNREV) and the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) have endogenous relationship where they influence each other. The results from this simultaneous equation model showed that the movie revenue and the eWOM volume interact each other. The movie revenue influences the eWOM volume for the entire 8 weeks. The reverse effect is more complex. Both the volume and the valence of eWOM affect the revenue in the first week, but only the volume affect the revenue for the rest of the weeks. In the first week, consumers may be curious about the movie and look for various kinds of information they can trust, so that they use the both the quantity and quality of consumer reviews. But from the second week, the quality of the eWOM only affects the movie revenue, implying that the review ratings are more important than the number of reviews. Third, our results show that the ratings by professional critics (CRATING) had negative effect to the weekly movie revenue (LNREV). Professional critics often give low ratings to the blockbuster movies that do not have much cinematic quality. Experienced audiences who watch the movie for fun do not trust the professionals' ratings and, hence, tend to go for the low-rated movies by them. In summary, applied to the Korean movie ratings data and employing a simultaneous model, our results are different from the previous eWOM studies: 1) Koreans (or Asians) care about the others' evaluation quality more than quantity, 2) The volume of eWOM is not the cause but the result of the revenue, 3) Professional reviews can give the negative effect to the movie revenue.

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The Establishment and Design of the Science Class in Cyber Space (사이버과학교실시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Kim, Mi-Young;Kweon, Hyo-Soon;Park, Hye-Ock
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.28-45
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    • 2006
  • As society has changed to being more knowledge-based, it is indispensable that Internet usage is incorporated into education. Therefore, the e-learning system is being developed in order to provide a proper environment. However, many LCMS that were developed, currently are not based on SCORM, the world e-learning standard, nor KEM, the Korea Educational Metadata of Korea Education & Research Information Service(KERIS), and hence, it is difficult to share learning contents developed from such varied environments. National Science Museum, a non-educational institution, also provides the educational science exhibits in reality or in cyber space, which cannot be produced by elementary schools, and secondary schools. Consequently, new systems are necessary, whose modules should be divided into four, for example, 'teachers', 'learners', 'managers', and 'instructors', and be associated with each other so that they are able to integrate and manage such systems, and be used in school education as well. Therefore, in this study, more advanced LMS and LCMS, which are the web-portal sites used for a cyber science class at the National Science Museum, were designed and established. These sites were surely based on the KEM, and the SCORM.

A Study for Extension of BIM/GIS Interoperability Platform linked External Open Data (외부개방데이터 연계를 통한 BIM/GIS 상호운용 플랫폼확장에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Seung-Hwa;Hong, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2017
  • Because the 'Internet of Things' and sensor network technology have become a new generation industry competitiveness with a development of Information Communication Technology, each local autonomous entity is trying to adopt a Smart City quickly. This requires an integrated platform inside of a smart city operation center. Established Smart City platform provides various services using CCTV information and ITS transportation information based on a two-dimensional map. The provision of advanced Smart City services will necessitate three-dimensional map information, building and facilities unit information, linked information with public data portal for service to the public. In this paper, the authors reviewed development trends of Smart City integrated platform and proposed mashup methods between BIM/GIS interoperability platform and external open data. BIM/GIS platform can provide spatial information services for indoor and outdoor seamlessly because it was developed based on GIS spatial data with BIM data. The linked external open data are V-World data, Seoul Open Data, and Architectural Data Open. Finally, the authors proposed the direction of development for BIM/GIS integrated platform to provide advanced Smart City services.

Monitoring Seasonal Influenza Epidemics in Korea through Query Search (인터넷 검색어를 활용한 계절적 유행성 독감 발생 감지)

  • Kwon, Chi-Myung;Hwang, Sung-Won;Jung, Jae-Un
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2014
  • Seasonal influenza epidemics cause 3 to 5 millions severe illness and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. To prepare better controls on severe influenza epidemics, many studies have been proposed to achieve near real-time surveillance of the spread of influenza. Korea CDC publishes clinical data of influenza epidemics on a weekly basis typically with a 1-2-week reporting lag. To provide faster detection of epidemics, recently approaches using unofficial data such as news reports, social media, and search queries are suggested. Collection of such data is cheap in cost and is realized in near real-time. This research aims to develop regression models for early detecting the outbreak of the seasonal influenza epidemics in Korea with keyword query information provided from the Naver (Korean representative portal site) trend services for PC and mobile device. We selected 20 key words likely to have strong correlations with influenza-like illness (ILI) based on literature review and proposed a logistic regression model and a multiple regression model to predict the outbreak of ILI. With respect of model fitness, the multiple regression model shows better results than logistic regression model. Also we find that a mobile-based regression model is better than PC-based regression model in estimating ILI percentages.

A Study on Information Users' Needs and Information Seeking Behavior of Doctoral Researchers in Digital Age (디지털 환경에서 학술연구자들의 정보요구 및 이용행태에 관한 연구 - 인문사회분야와 과학기술분야의 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Kim, Jay-Hoon;Hwang, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.189-208
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    • 2011
  • In the digital environment where the Internet and IT change rapidly, researchers have utilized scientific information by relying on more complex and various media than before. This study performed a group interview with thirteen questions derived from five categories in order to understand information needs and information seeking behaviors of Korean doctoral researchers in this information environment. The five categories are (1) identifying information resource usage pattern, (2) attitude towards information resources and reasons for use, (3) IT skills and information literacy, (4) physical library use vs electronic access, and (5) attitudes toward the digital library. In particular, this study focused on analyzing similarities and differences of two groups of researchers selected equally in the humanities and social sciences and in science and technology by doing the interview. The research showed that there are no differences in the goal of using scientific information, information literacy, the ratio of using written materials to electronic resources, and routes of acquiring research ideas or knowledge, but there are differences in materials used for studies or researches and in favorite scientific portal sites.

The Development of Travel Demand Nowcasting Model Based on Travelers' Attention: Focusing on Web Search Traffic Information (여행자 관심 기반 스마트 여행 수요 예측 모형 개발: 웹검색 트래픽 정보를 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-185
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    • 2017
  • Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.