• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.319-320
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• 2012

International oil prices is the world's leading macroeconomic indicators. Rising international oil price has been worsening. profitability of construction company including material cost as well stagnation in housing market. Thus, according to fluctuations in international oil prices has cost index need to see any change happening there. in this study, 2000 to 2011 interest rates, exchange rates and oil price fluctuations in construction cost is to compare the impact.

• 무역학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.69-86
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• 2018

본 연구는 1999년부터 2013년까지 300개 개별상품의 소매가격자료를 사용하여 원유가격이 가격분산에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 실증분석 결과에 따르면 원유가격 상승은 미국내 도시 간 가격분산은 증가시키는 반면, World, OECD 등 국가 간 가격분산에는 유의미한 영향을 미치는 않는 것으로 추정된다. 이는 국내 지역 간 차익거래가 원유가격 변화에 따른 수송비용의 변화에 민감하게 반응하는 반면, 국가 간 가격분산은 소득 격차 및 소비자 선호 등 기타 요인에 의해 주로 결정된다는 것을 의미한다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.459-474
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• 2008

Under violent competition to secure international raw materials, safe supply and demand of crude oil that only relies on import among main raw materials is an important task for Korean economic development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of price change of international crude oil on merchandise balance. It also presents political suggestions in preparation for national economic development and safety and develops an organized and long-term overseas resources development program. As the time-series data which had the 1st difference contribute to dismissal of the null hypothesis successfully, we carry out a multivariate cointegration test developed by Johansen (1988) and find that at least one cointegration vector exists. And, when Impulse Response Function is introduced, as the crude oil import price shows a negative impact from Step 2, then an extreme change, a positive impact since Step 13, is maintained and a safe result appears.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제41권
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• pp.169-183
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• 2009

This study has been conducted under the background of the high rocketed international oil price in the mid of the 2008 year. Korean logistics industry then suffered from a harsh labor strike which paralyzed temporarily Korean exports and imports activities mainly due to the rising motor fuel prices. The theme of this study started from the highly practical question: what would be the impact of the soaring crude oil price on the cost structure of the Korean logistics industry? For this practical question this study conducted an input-output analysis utilizing the 2003 year benchmark input-output table, published by the Bank of Korea in 2007.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.264-272
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• 2019

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.77-97
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• 2010

최근 국제자원시장의 불안정성으로 인해 카스피해 연안 국가에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있다. 이들 국가들은 자원수출 중심으로 성장하고 있으며, 특히 카자흐스탄은 최근 10년간 높은 경제성장률을 달성하였다. 그러나 자원에 대한 수출의존도가 높은 경제구조를 가진 국가들의 경우 경제 전반이 국제자원 시세변동에 따라 크게 영향을 받을 수 있으며, 지속적인 경제성장을 저해하는 네덜란드 병에 노출될 수 있다. 최근 카자흐스탄은 우리나라와 교역 및 투자가 증가하는 등 새로운 에너지 공급처로서 대두되었다. 따라서 카자흐스탄의 경제변화는 우리나라에 있어 주요 이슈라고 할 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 카자흐스탄 경제에 네덜란드 병의 원인을 파악하기 위해 Balasa-Samuelson모형을 수정하여 1999년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지를 표본 대상 기간 동안 국제유가와 이자율, 카자흐스탄 실질환율 간의 관계를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 전체 표본 기간 내 국제유가와 이자율은 실질환율과 장기적 균형관계를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 이 기간 내 국제유가와 이자율은 실질환율에 각각 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 카자흐스탄은 네덜란드 병에 노출되어 있음을 확인하였다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.479-504
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• 2006

국제원유시장에서 대표적인 WTI, 브렌트, 두바이유의 현물 및 선물 가격 간의 인과관계를 분석함으로써 국제유가의 가격발견과정을 연구한다. 비순환성 그래프에서 도출된 국제유가의 동시적 인과관계를 이용하여 오차수정모형에서 유가간의 단기인과관계를 분석한다. 1999년 1월 4일~2005년 7월 15일까지의 시계열 데이터를 이용한 동시적 인과관계의 분석 결과 WTI 현물과 선물 가격에 대한 두바이의 동시적 영향은 통계적으로 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났으며, 반면 브렌트 현물 및 선물 가격에 대한 두바이의 영향은 유의미한 것으로 확인되었다. 단기적으로는 브렌트 가격의 확률충격 상당부분이 WTI에 의해 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 브렌트가 두바이와 WTI를 연결하고 있어, 마커원유로서 브렌트에 더욱 주목할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.15-39
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• 2001

The study, using the input-output analysis of 402 industrial sectors by Bank of Korea(BOK) and the resulting outcomes of price model, aims to evaluate the spillover effects the international fluctuations in crude oil prices have on the commodities prices and consequently, analyse the management and profitability of the offshore fisheries in Korea. At present, the fisher men are provided with tax-free oils for their fishing operations as specified under the Special Tax Treatment Control Law. However, the exhaustion of marine resources and new international fisheries agreements, which resulted in the loss of fishing grounds, made the stable catch even more unpredictable and the hike in the price of the international crude oil would have adverse effects on the fishing industry. The study revealed that the increasing rise in the price of crude oil would exert sweeping spillover effects on other industry sectors in general and accordingly, lead to a poorer performance by fisheries. The price spillover coefficients for the diesel oil was 0.6026, which would translate into the 42.6% increase in the prices of oil when the increase ratio of 73.3% for the base crude oil was applied based on the calculation methods employed in the study. This in turn increased the ratio of diesel oil required in the offshore fisheries from 23.3% to 16.6%, diminishing the ratio of current net profits to minus 2.0% from 4.2% otherwise. By fishing type, the Pair Trawl suffered current net profits loss most by ratio of minus 9.4% and other fisheries such as Coastal Stow Nets, Coastal Angling, Danish Sein also suffered ratio of 7% and more in the loss of current net profits. With the deteriorating fishing performance, coupled with the increasing international crude oil prices, it is urgently required that the authorities concerned deliberate in depth on such schemes as follows in efforts to secure stable fishing production. First, provision of large-scale storage facilities for oil is needed to timely adapt to the fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Secondly, in line with the stabilization of tax-free oil prices, duty levied on oils for fishing and tax collected from the refineries need to be tax-exempt. Thirdly, the beneficiaries from the provision of tax-free oil should be broadened, not limited to special fishing operation only. Fourth, investment in stabilization of the oil prices should be encouraged, possibly through funding from the formation of fisheries development funds underway.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.601-611
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• 2021

There are many asset prices which are interlinked and have a bearing on the stock market index. Studies have shown that the interrelationship among these asset prices vary and are inconsistent. The ultimate aim of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock index. Monthly time series data has been utilized by the researcher to examine the interrelationship between four variables. The relationship among stock exchange rate index, oil price and gold price have been undertaken using regression and granger causality test. The results indicate that the exchange rate and oil price have an indirect influence on NIFTY; whereas gold price had a direct impact on NIFTY. It is evident from the results that volatility in the price of gold is mainly dependent on the exchange rate and vice versa. All the variables affect NIFTY in some way or the other. However, gold has a direct and vital relationship. From the study findings, it can be concluded that macroeconomic variables like commodity prices and foreign exchange rate, gold and oil, have a strong relationship on the return on securities at the national stock exchange of India.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.