• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.406-415
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• 2024

As the equipment of the military has become more advanced and expensive, the cost of securing spare parts is also constantly increasing along with the increase in equipment assets. In particular, forecasting demand for spare parts one of the important management tasks in the military, and the accuracy of these predictions is directly related to military operations and cost management. However, because the demand for spare parts is intermittent and irregular, it is often difficult to make accurate predictions using traditional statistical methods or a single statistical or machine learning model. In this paper, we propose a model that can increase the accuracy of demand forecasting for irregular patterns of spare parts demanding by using a combination of statistical and machine learning algorithm, and through experiments on Cheonma spare parts demanding data.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.234-241
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• 2021

By recognizing the importance of demand forecasting, the military is conducting many studies to improve the prediction accuracy for repair parts. Demand forecasting for repair parts is becoming a very important factor in budgeting and equipment availability. On the other hand, the demand for intermittent repair parts that have not constant sizes and intervals with the time series model currently used in the military is difficult to predict. This paper proposes a method to improve the prediction accuracy for intermittent repair parts of the Patriot. The authors collected intermittent repair parts data by classifying the demand types of 701 repair parts from 2013 to 2019. The temperature and operating time identified as external factors that can affect the failure were selected as input variables. The prediction accuracy was measured using both time series models and data mining models. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the data mining models was higher than that of the time series models, and the multilayer perceptron model showed the best performance.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.101-114
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• 2012

The demand for naval spare parts is intermittent and erratic. This feature, referred to as non-normal demand, makes forecasting difficult. Hierarchical forecasting using an aggregated time series can be more reliable to predict non-normal demand than direct forecasting. In practice the performance of hierarchical forecasting is not always superior to direct forecasting. The relative performance of the alternative forecasting methods depends on the demand features. This paper analyses the influence of the demand features on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods that use hierarchical and direct forecasting. Among various demand features variability, kurtosis, skewness and equipment groups are shown to significantly influence on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.50-58
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• 2018

Intermittent demand is a demand with a pattern in which zero demands occur frequently and non-zero demands occur sporadically. This type of demand mainly appears in spare parts with very low demand. Croston's method, which is an initiative intermittent demand forecasting method, estimates the average demand by separately estimating the size of non-zero demands and the interval between non-zero demands. Such smoothing type of forecasting methods can be suitable for mid-term or long-term demand forecasting because those provides the same demand forecasts during the forecasting horizon. However, the smoothing type of forecasting methods aims at short-term forecasting, so the estimated average forecast is a factor to decrease accuracy. In this paper, we propose a forecasting method to improve short-term accuracy by improving Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed forecasting method estimates both the non-zero demand size and the zero demands' interval separately, as in Croston's method, but the forecast at a future period adjusted by binomial weight according to occurrence probability. This serves to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts. In this paper, we first prove the unbiasedness of the proposed method as an important attribute in forecasting. The performance of the proposed method is compared with those of five existing forecasting methods via eight evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method is superior to other methods in terms of all evaluation criteria in short-term forecasting regardless of average size and dispersion parameter of demands. However, the larger the average demand size and dispersion are, that is, the closer to continuous demand, the less the performance gap with other forecasting methods.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.19-25
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• 2014

Demand forecasting is the basis of management activities including marketing strategy. Especially, the demand of a part is remarkably important in supply chain management (SCM). In the fields of various industries, the part demand usually has the intermittent characteristic. The intermittent characteristic implies a phenomenon that there frequently occurs zero demands. In the intermittent demands, non-zero demands have large variance and their appearances also have stochastic nature. Accordingly, in the intermittent demand forecasting, it is inappropriate to apply the traditional time series models and/or cause-effect methods such as linear regression; they cannot describe the behaviors of intermittent demand. Markov bootstrap method was developed to forecast the intermittent demand. It assumes that first-order autocorrelation and independence of lead time demands. To release the assumption of independent lead time demands, this paper proposes a modified bootstrap method. The method produces the pseudo data having the characteristics of historical data approximately. A numerical example for real data will be provided as a case study.