• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.165-183
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• 2016

Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of technological devices and a rising number of various devices, resulting in an escalation of virtual reality technology. Technological market has rapidly been changed from smartphone to wearable devices based on virtual reality. Virtual reality can make users feel real situation through sensing interaction, voice, motion capture and so on. Facebook.com, Google, Samsung, LG, Sony and so on have investigated developing platform of virtual reality. the pricing of virtual reality devices also had decreased into 30% from their launched period. Thus market infrastructure in virtual reality have rapidly been developed to crease marketplace. However, most consumers recognize that virtual reality is not ease to purchase or use. That could not lead consumers to positive attitude for devices and purchase the related devices in the early market. Through previous studies related to virtual reality, there are few studies focusing on why the devices for virtual reality stayed in early stage in adoption & diffusion context in the market. Almost previous studies considered the reasons of hard adoption for innovative products in the viewpoints of Typology of Innovation Resistance, MIR(Management of Innovation Resistant), UTAUT & UTAUT2. However, product-based antecedents also important to increase user intention to purchase and use products in the technological market. In this study, we focus on user acceptance and resistance for increasing purchase and usage promotions of wearable devices related to virtual reality based on headgear products like Galaxy Gear. Especially, we added a variables like attitude confidence as a dimension for user resistance. The research questions of this study are follows. First, how attitude confidence and innovativeness resistance affect user intention to use? Second, What factors related to content and brand contexts can affect user intention to use? This research collected data from the participants who have experiences using virtual rality headgears aged between 20s to 50s located in South Korea. In order to collect data, this study used a pilot test and through making face-to-face interviews on three specialists, face validity and content validity were evaluated for the questionnaire validity. Cleansing the data, we dropped some outliers and data of irrelevant papers. Totally, 156 responses were used for testing the suggested hypotheses. Through collecting data, demographics and the relationships among variables were analyzed through conducting structural equation modeling by PLS. The data showed that the sex of respondents who have experience using social commerce sites (male=86(55.1%), female=70(44.9%). The ages of respondents are mostly from 20s (74.4%) to 30s (16.7%). 126 respondents (80.8%) have used virtual reality devices. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 1 and 7, which deals with the two relationships between brand awareness to attitude confidence, and quality of content to perceived enjoyment, all of our hypotheses were supported. In compliance with our hypotheses, perceived ease of use (H2) and use innovativeness (H3) were supported with its positively influence for the attitude confidence. This finding indicates that the more ease of use and innovativeness for devices increased, the more users' attitude confidence increased. Perceived price (H4), enjoyment (H5), Quantity of contents (H6) significantly increase user resistance. However, perceived price positively affect user innovativeness resistance meanwhile perceived enjoyment and quantity of contents negatively affect user innovativeness resistance. In addition, aesthetic exterior (H6) was also positively associated with perceived price (p<0.01). Also projection quality (H8) can increase perceived enjoyment (p<0.05). Finally, attitude confidence (H10) increased user intention to use virtual reality devices. however user resistance (H11) negatively affect user intention to use virtual reality devices. The findings of this study show that attitude confidence and user innovativeness resistance differently influence customer intention for using virtual reality devices. There are two distinct characteristic of attitude confidence: perceived ease of use and user innovativeness. This study identified the antecedents of different roles of perceived price (aesthetic exterior) and perceived enjoyment (quality of contents & projection quality). The findings indicated that brand awareness and quality of contents for virtual reality is not formed within virtual reality market yet. Therefore, firms should developed brand awareness for their product in the virtual market to increase market share.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-35
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• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.53-69
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• 2011

Vision and voice-based technologies are commonly utilized for human-robot interaction. But it is widely recognized that the performance of vision and voice-based interaction systems is deteriorated by a large margin in the real-world situations due to environmental and user variances. Human users need to be very cooperative to get reasonable performance, which significantly limits the usability of the vision and voice-based human-robot interaction technologies. As a result, touch screens are still the major medium of human-robot interaction for the real-world applications. To empower the usability of robots for various services, alternative interaction technologies should be developed to complement the problems of vision and voice-based technologies. In this paper, we propose the use of accelerometer-based gesture interface as one of the alternative technologies, because accelerometers are effective in detecting the movements of human body, while their performance is not limited by environmental contexts such as lighting conditions or camera's field-of-view. Moreover, accelerometers are widely available nowadays in many mobile devices. We tackle the problem of classifying acceleration signal patterns of 26 English alphabets, which is one of the essential repertoires for the realization of education services based on robots. Recognizing 26 English handwriting patterns based on accelerometers is a very difficult task to take over because of its large scale of pattern classes and the complexity of each pattern. The most difficult problem that has been undertaken which is similar to our problem was recognizing acceleration signal patterns of 10 handwritten digits. Most previous studies dealt with pattern sets of 8~10 simple and easily distinguishable gestures that are useful for controlling home appliances, computer applications, robots etc. Good features are essential for the success of pattern recognition. To promote the discriminative power upon complex English alphabet patterns, we extracted 'motion trajectories' out of input acceleration signal and used them as the main feature. Investigative experiments showed that classifiers based on trajectory performed 3%~5% better than those with raw features e.g. acceleration signal itself or statistical figures. To minimize the distortion of trajectories, we applied a simple but effective set of smoothing filters and band-pass filters. It is well known that acceleration patterns for the same gesture is very different among different performers. To tackle the problem, online incremental learning is applied for our system to make it adaptive to the users' distinctive motion properties. Our system is based on instance-based learning (IBL) where each training sample is memorized as a reference pattern. Brute-force incremental learning in IBL continuously accumulates reference patterns, which is a problem because it not only slows down the classification but also downgrades the recall performance. Regarding the latter phenomenon, we observed a tendency that as the number of reference patterns grows, some reference patterns contribute more to the false positive classification. Thus, we devised an algorithm for optimizing the reference pattern set based on the positive and negative contribution of each reference pattern. The algorithm is performed periodically to remove reference patterns that have a very low positive contribution or a high negative contribution. Experiments were performed on 6500 gesture patterns collected from 50 adults of 30~50 years old. Each alphabet was performed 5 times per participant using $Nintendo{(R)}$ $Wii^{TM}$ remote. Acceleration signal was sampled in 100hz on 3 axes. Mean recall rate for all the alphabets was 95.48%. Some alphabets recorded very low recall rate and exhibited very high pairwise confusion rate. Major confusion pairs are D(88%) and P(74%), I(81%) and U(75%), N(88%) and W(100%). Though W was recalled perfectly, it contributed much to the false positive classification of N. By comparison with major previous results from VTT (96% for 8 control gestures), CMU (97% for 10 control gestures) and Samsung Electronics(97% for 10 digits and a control gesture), we could find that the performance of our system is superior regarding the number of pattern classes and the complexity of patterns. Using our gesture interaction system, we conducted 2 case studies of robot-based edutainment services. The services were implemented on various robot platforms and mobile devices including $iPhone^{TM}$. The participating children exhibited improved concentration and active reaction on the service with our gesture interface. To prove the effectiveness of our gesture interface, a test was taken by the children after experiencing an English teaching service. The test result showed that those who played with the gesture interface-based robot content marked 10% better score than those with conventional teaching. We conclude that the accelerometer-based gesture interface is a promising technology for flourishing real-world robot-based services and content by complementing the limits of today's conventional interfaces e.g. touch screen, vision and voice.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.127-146
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• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.109-131
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• 2014

As the demand of nuclear power plant equipment is continuously growing worldwide, the importance of handling nuclear strategic materials is also increasing. While the number of cases submitted for the exports of nuclear-power commodity and technology is dramatically increasing, preadjudication (or prescreening to be simple) of strategic materials has been done so far by experts of a long-time experience and extensive field knowledge. However, there is severe shortage of experts in this domain, not to mention that it takes a long time to develop an expert. Because human experts must manually evaluate all the documents submitted for export permission, the current practice of nuclear material export is neither time-efficient nor cost-effective. Toward alleviating the problem of relying on costly human experts only, our research proposes a new system designed to help field experts make their decisions more effectively and efficiently. The proposed system is built upon case-based reasoning, which in essence extracts key features from the existing cases, compares the features with the features of a new case, and derives a solution for the new case by referencing similar cases and their solutions. Our research proposes a framework of case-based reasoning system, designs a case-based reasoning system for the control of nuclear material exports, and evaluates the performance of alternative keyword extraction methods (full automatic, full manual, and semi-automatic). A keyword extraction method is an essential component of the case-based reasoning system as it is used to extract key features of the cases. The full automatic method was conducted using TF-IDF, which is a widely used de facto standard method for representative keyword extraction in text mining. TF (Term Frequency) is based on the frequency count of the term within a document, showing how important the term is within a document while IDF (Inverted Document Frequency) is based on the infrequency of the term within a document set, showing how uniquely the term represents the document. The results show that the semi-automatic approach, which is based on the collaboration of machine and human, is the most effective solution regardless of whether the human is a field expert or a student who majors in nuclear engineering. Moreover, we propose a new approach of computing nuclear document similarity along with a new framework of document analysis. The proposed algorithm of nuclear document similarity considers both document-to-document similarity (${\alpha}$) and document-to-nuclear system similarity (${\beta}$), in order to derive the final score (${\gamma}$) for the decision of whether the presented case is of strategic material or not. The final score (${\gamma}$) represents a document similarity between the past cases and the new case. The score is induced by not only exploiting conventional TF-IDF, but utilizing a nuclear system similarity score, which takes the context of nuclear system domain into account. Finally, the system retrieves top-3 documents stored in the case base that are considered as the most similar cases with regard to the new case, and provides them with the degree of credibility. With this final score and the credibility score, it becomes easier for a user to see which documents in the case base are more worthy of looking up so that the user can make a proper decision with relatively lower cost. The evaluation of the system has been conducted by developing a prototype and testing with field data. The system workflows and outcomes have been verified by the field experts. This research is expected to contribute the growth of knowledge service industry by proposing a new system that can effectively reduce the burden of relying on costly human experts for the export control of nuclear materials and that can be considered as a meaningful example of knowledge service application.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.149-169
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• 2020

"The Urban Renewal New Deal project", one of the government's major national projects, is about developing underdeveloped areas by investing 50 trillion won in 100 locations on the first year and 500 over the next four years. This project is drawing keen attention from the media and local governments. However, the project model which fails to reflect the original characteristics of the area as it divides project area into five categories: "Our Neighborhood Restoration, Housing Maintenance Support Type, General Neighborhood Type, Central Urban Type, and Economic Base Type," According to keywords for successful urban regeneration in Korea, "resident participation," "regional specialization," "ministerial cooperation" and "public-private cooperation", when local governments propose urban regeneration projects to the government, they can see that it is most important to accurately understand the characteristics of the city and push ahead with the projects in a way that suits the characteristics of the city with the help of local residents and private companies. In addition, considering the gentrification problem, which is one of the side effects of urban regeneration projects, it is important to select and implement urban regeneration types suitable for the characteristics of the area. In order to supplement the limitations of the 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project' methodology, this study aims to propose a system that recommends urban regeneration types suitable for urban regeneration sites by utilizing various machine learning algorithms, referring to the urban regeneration types of the '2025 Seoul Metropolitan Government Urban Regeneration Strategy Plan' promoted based on regional characteristics. There are four types of urban regeneration in Seoul: "Low-use Low-Level Development, Abandonment, Deteriorated Housing, and Specialization of Historical and Cultural Resources" (Shon and Park, 2017). In order to identify regional characteristics, approximately 100,000 text data were collected for 22 regions where the project was carried out for a total of four types of urban regeneration. Using the collected data, we drew key keywords for each region according to the type of urban regeneration and conducted topic modeling to explore whether there were differences between types. As a result, it was confirmed that a number of topics related to real estate and economy appeared in old residential areas, and in the case of declining and underdeveloped areas, topics reflecting the characteristics of areas where industrial activities were active in the past appeared. In the case of the historical and cultural resource area, since it is an area that contains traces of the past, many keywords related to the government appeared. Therefore, it was possible to confirm political topics and cultural topics resulting from various events. Finally, in the case of low-use and under-developed areas, many topics on real estate and accessibility are emerging, so accessibility is good. It mainly had the characteristics of a region where development is planned or is likely to be developed. Furthermore, a model was implemented that proposes urban regeneration types tailored to regional characteristics for regions other than Seoul. Machine learning technology was used to implement the model, and training data and test data were randomly extracted at an 8:2 ratio and used. In order to compare the performance between various models, the input variables are set in two ways: Count Vector and TF-IDF Vector, and as Classifier, there are 5 types of SVM (Support Vector Machine), Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Gradient Boosting. By applying it, performance comparison for a total of 10 models was conducted. The model with the highest performance was the Gradient Boosting method using TF-IDF Vector input data, and the accuracy was 97%. Therefore, the recommendation system proposed in this study is expected to recommend urban regeneration types based on the regional characteristics of new business sites in the process of carrying out urban regeneration projects."

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.57-73
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• 2021

Maintenance and prevention of failure through anomaly detection of ICT infrastructure is becoming important. System monitoring data is multidimensional time series data. When we deal with multidimensional time series data, we have difficulty in considering both characteristics of multidimensional data and characteristics of time series data. When dealing with multidimensional data, correlation between variables should be considered. Existing methods such as probability and linear base, distance base, etc. are degraded due to limitations called the curse of dimensions. In addition, time series data is preprocessed by applying sliding window technique and time series decomposition for self-correlation analysis. These techniques are the cause of increasing the dimension of data, so it is necessary to supplement them. The anomaly detection field is an old research field, and statistical methods and regression analysis were used in the early days. Currently, there are active studies to apply machine learning and artificial neural network technology to this field. Statistically based methods are difficult to apply when data is non-homogeneous, and do not detect local outliers well. The regression analysis method compares the predictive value and the actual value after learning the regression formula based on the parametric statistics and it detects abnormality. Anomaly detection using regression analysis has the disadvantage that the performance is lowered when the model is not solid and the noise or outliers of the data are included. There is a restriction that learning data with noise or outliers should be used. The autoencoder using artificial neural networks is learned to output as similar as possible to input data. It has many advantages compared to existing probability and linear model, cluster analysis, and map learning. It can be applied to data that does not satisfy probability distribution or linear assumption. In addition, it is possible to learn non-mapping without label data for teaching. However, there is a limitation of local outlier identification of multidimensional data in anomaly detection, and there is a problem that the dimension of data is greatly increased due to the characteristics of time series data. In this study, we propose a CMAE (Conditional Multimodal Autoencoder) that enhances the performance of anomaly detection by considering local outliers and time series characteristics. First, we applied Multimodal Autoencoder (MAE) to improve the limitations of local outlier identification of multidimensional data. Multimodals are commonly used to learn different types of inputs, such as voice and image. The different modal shares the bottleneck effect of Autoencoder and it learns correlation. In addition, CAE (Conditional Autoencoder) was used to learn the characteristics of time series data effectively without increasing the dimension of data. In general, conditional input mainly uses category variables, but in this study, time was used as a condition to learn periodicity. The CMAE model proposed in this paper was verified by comparing with the Unimodal Autoencoder (UAE) and Multi-modal Autoencoder (MAE). The restoration performance of Autoencoder for 41 variables was confirmed in the proposed model and the comparison model. The restoration performance is different by variables, and the restoration is normally well operated because the loss value is small for Memory, Disk, and Network modals in all three Autoencoder models. The process modal did not show a significant difference in all three models, and the CPU modal showed excellent performance in CMAE. ROC curve was prepared for the evaluation of anomaly detection performance in the proposed model and the comparison model, and AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were compared. In all indicators, the performance was shown in the order of CMAE, MAE, and AE. Especially, the reproduction rate was 0.9828 for CMAE, which can be confirmed to detect almost most of the abnormalities. The accuracy of the model was also improved and 87.12%, and the F1-score was 0.8883, which is considered to be suitable for anomaly detection. In practical aspect, the proposed model has an additional advantage in addition to performance improvement. The use of techniques such as time series decomposition and sliding windows has the disadvantage of managing unnecessary procedures; and their dimensional increase can cause a decrease in the computational speed in inference.The proposed model has characteristics that are easy to apply to practical tasks such as inference speed and model management.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2020

Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.77-110
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• 2017

Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.127-148
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• 2020

The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.