• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.8-16
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• 2013

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to identify and assess the contribution of budgetary, monetary and institutional shocks affecting the Tunisian economy over the period 1976-2003. The methodology used is vector autoregressive models and structural recent techniques for the analysis of time series related. The empirical results show a significant relationship between the supply shock and institutions on the one hand, and between institutional shocks and economic activity on the other hand. Research Design, Data and Methodology: As part of this section we will try to identify and assess the contribution of various shocks to macroeconomic variables' fluctuations for the Tunisian economy. The study period is: 1976-2003 and observations are annual. Results: The real business cycle theory argues that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are the result of the interaction of the only real factors namely agents' preferences, technological opportunities, factor endowments and possibly certain institutional constraints. Conclusions: The lowest contribution to the variability of these rights is the monetary shock. As for "civil liberties", the largest share of their variability is the shock relating to the "political rights" during the first four periods .

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.135-149
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• 2022

Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.5-22
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• 2012

Although many system dynamists point out the close relationship between institutional economics and system dynamics, the relationship between institutional political theory and system dynamics approach is not explicitly appreciated yet. We developed a system dynamics model to investigate theoretical propositions of institutional politics. Our system dynamics model showed how the endogenous mechanism can explain the political changes as well as orders. Although simple in the causal structure, our model could show a complex behavior of political competition. Several simulation results imply that some unexpected changes in election and power competition may come from the endogenous system rather than from exogenous factors such as economic and environmental shocks.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.89-101
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• 2022

International remittances play a crucial role in the economic management of each country, especially in developing countries. Its functions are diverse, including procurement of foreign currency, serving as a cushion for the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves by reducing the adverse external shocks, driving economic growth, easing the gap between the rich and the poor, and maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, previous studies on remittances have mainly focused on macro-and micro-economic aspects to analyze the determinants. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the determinants of remittances in 122 countries over the past 25 years from macroeconomic and educational aspects as well as institutional qualities. In addition, given the fact that almost all of the world's top 10 recipient countries in terms of GDP and total remittance size are developing countries, developed and developing countries are separated and analyzed for comparison, assuming that there may be a difference between the two groups. Results show that the coefficients of developed and developing countries are different in four areas: Control of Corruption (CC), Rule of Law (RL), Voice and Accountability (VA), and Regulatory Quality (RQ) among the six institutional variables of interest in this study. These results implicate that even the same institutions and policies should be applied and implemented differently depending on the circumstances of each country. In addition, as suggested by the World Bank, policymakers in all countries should double their policy efforts to lower the costs of remittance and improve access to the financial system for immigrants or dispatched workers to ensure a steady inflow of remittances.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2020

As asbestos-containing buildings are getting older, asbestos deconstruction works are increasing. As a result, accident risks such as falls, cuts, electric shocks, and suffocation are increasing. Existing studies are mostly about health management and institutional policy research and there is little research on work risk. So workplace risk assessments that are easily applicable in the field are required to be applied. Sealing is the first process of asbestos deconstruction and is the first step to ensure worker's safety. Job Safety Analysis(JSA) and Checklist were used to identify the risk factors and to calculate the level of the risk. By comparing the two risk assessment tools, it was figured out that the JSA is appropriate for the initial process and change of work procedure while Checklist is appropriate for repetitive work. Because the sealing process is sort and simple, it is unlikely to cause serious injury. But since the risk of falling and cuts are exist, safety education and supervision are necessary to maintain a safe working environment.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.59-90
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• 2020

U.S. monetary policy has been claimed to generate global spillover and to destabilize other small open economies. We analyze the effects of certain identified U.S. monetary shocks on gross capital flows in the Korean economy using the local projection method. Consistent with previous results on other small open economies, we initially confirm that U.S. interest rate hikes are dynamically correlated with foreign outflows and residents' inflows. That is, not only are they correlated with withdrawals by foreigners but they are also correlated with those by domestic (Korean) investors. The results are mostly driven by portfolio flows. Second, however, the marginal response to a U.S. monetary policy shock is, on average, subdued if we focus on the sample periods after the Global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (henceforth, global financial crisis). We conjecture a possible reason behind the change, an institutional change related to financial friction. If the degree of pledgeability of the value of net worth increases, the marginal responses by both investors would drop with a U.S. monetary policy shock, consistent with our findings.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.19-40
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• 2013

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) achieved relatively rapid economic growth over the past decade. Sustainable growth among member states, however, is put into question due to macroeconomic challenges, political risk, and vulnerability to external shocks. Developed countries, in contrast, have turned into less labor-intensive technologies to further expand their economies. In this paper, we review the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and statuses of the scientific and technological capabilities of the ASEAN member countries. Empirical results based on STI indicators (R&D spending, publications, patents, and knowledge economy indices) reveal considerable variation between the science and technology (S&T) competence and effectiveness of STI policies of ASEAN members. We have categorized nations into clusters according their situations in their S&T productivity. Under the Korean Innovation Model, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei are classified as being in the institutional-building stage, while Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the catch up stage, and Singapore in the post-catch up stage. Finally, policy prescriptions on how to enhance the S&T capabilities of the developing ASEAN countries, based on the South Korea development experience, are presented.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.303-320
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• 2018

본 연구는 클러스터 적응주기 모델에 기반하여 구미국가산업단지의 진화 과정의 특성과 그 내 외적 동인을 분석하였다. 구미국가산업단지는 공간적 산업적 영역의 확대를 통해 비약적인 발전을 거듭하면서 우리나라 대표적인 IT산업 클러스터로서의 위상을 차지하고 있다. 그러나 1990년대 이후의 성장기, 2000년대 중반 이후의 성숙기 그리고 2010년대 중반부터의 성숙정체기로 진화한 이후 쇠퇴기로 들어서고 있다. 이는 기반구축기에서 성장기를 거쳐 성숙기로 진화하기까지 구미국가산업단지에 크게 영향을 미쳤던 국제적 국가적 수준의 외적 동인이 아닌, 대기업의 역외 유출, 중소기업의 미흡한 연구역량 그리고 획기적인 제도적 기반의 미흡과 같은 내적 동인이 중소기업들의 경영상 어려움을 가중시켰기 때문이다. 따라서 외부 충격에 대한 회복력 강화를 통해 구미국가산업단지가 재활성화기로 진화하도록 하기 위해서는 무엇보다 국가적 차원에서 영세 소기업의 역량강화에 초점을 두고 중앙정부 및 지자체, 그리고 지원기관의 역할을 보다 확대할 필요가 있다. 또한 지역경제를 이끌어 갈 중견기업을 집중적으로 육성시켜 이를 지역에 성공적으로 뿌리내리게 하여 구미국가산업단지가 지속가능한 혁신 생태계로 거듭날 수 있도록 해야 할 것이다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.185-226
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• 2022

이 연구는 전 세계적인 언론의 신뢰도 하락이라는 상황에서, 한국 언론과 유사한 형태로 심각한 신뢰 위기를 겪고 있는 프랑스 언론에 대하여 고찰한다. 2018년부터 시작된 '노란 조끼' 운동이라는 거대한 사회운동의 과정에서 프랑스 언론에 대한 불신은 극단적인 형태로 표출되었다. 이 연구는 이를 프랑스 언론의 역사적 발전 과정, 그리고 이에 대한 대중들의 오랜 '언론에 대한 비판'의 구조라는 측면과 결합하여 살펴본다. 구체적으로 이 연구는 로이터 저널리즘 연구소에서 간행한 <디지털 뉴스 리포트>에 나타난 프랑스 언론의 신뢰도의 양적 지표를 먼저 살펴본다. 이어 프랑스 저널리즘의 역사적·제도적 형성 과정 및 이에 발맞추어 등장한 대중적 불신의 경로를 검토해 본다. 그리고 2018년 사회운동에 대한 보도 과정에서 노출된 프랑스 언론의 구조적 위기 - 경제적 위기, 디지털 전환과 경쟁 심화, 퀄리티 저하 - 가 실제 뉴스 생산의 작업 과정에 미친 영향 문제를 검토한다. 결론적으로 이 연구는 프랑스 언론을 향한 외적 충격(사회운동의 영향) 못지 않게, 저널리즘 제도 내부적인 균열의 다양한 양상들이 최근 프랑스 언론의 신뢰도 추락을 설명하는 핵심적인 요인임을 주장한다.