• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.8-16
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• 2013

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to identify and assess the contribution of budgetary, monetary and institutional shocks affecting the Tunisian economy over the period 1976-2003. The methodology used is vector autoregressive models and structural recent techniques for the analysis of time series related. The empirical results show a significant relationship between the supply shock and institutions on the one hand, and between institutional shocks and economic activity on the other hand. Research Design, Data and Methodology: As part of this section we will try to identify and assess the contribution of various shocks to macroeconomic variables' fluctuations for the Tunisian economy. The study period is: 1976-2003 and observations are annual. Results: The real business cycle theory argues that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are the result of the interaction of the only real factors namely agents' preferences, technological opportunities, factor endowments and possibly certain institutional constraints. Conclusions: The lowest contribution to the variability of these rights is the monetary shock. As for "civil liberties", the largest share of their variability is the shock relating to the "political rights" during the first four periods .

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.135-149
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• 2022

Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.5-22
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• 2012

Although many system dynamists point out the close relationship between institutional economics and system dynamics, the relationship between institutional political theory and system dynamics approach is not explicitly appreciated yet. We developed a system dynamics model to investigate theoretical propositions of institutional politics. Our system dynamics model showed how the endogenous mechanism can explain the political changes as well as orders. Although simple in the causal structure, our model could show a complex behavior of political competition. Several simulation results imply that some unexpected changes in election and power competition may come from the endogenous system rather than from exogenous factors such as economic and environmental shocks.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.89-101
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• 2022

International remittances play a crucial role in the economic management of each country, especially in developing countries. Its functions are diverse, including procurement of foreign currency, serving as a cushion for the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves by reducing the adverse external shocks, driving economic growth, easing the gap between the rich and the poor, and maintaining macroeconomic stability. However, previous studies on remittances have mainly focused on macro-and micro-economic aspects to analyze the determinants. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the determinants of remittances in 122 countries over the past 25 years from macroeconomic and educational aspects as well as institutional qualities. In addition, given the fact that almost all of the world's top 10 recipient countries in terms of GDP and total remittance size are developing countries, developed and developing countries are separated and analyzed for comparison, assuming that there may be a difference between the two groups. Results show that the coefficients of developed and developing countries are different in four areas: Control of Corruption (CC), Rule of Law (RL), Voice and Accountability (VA), and Regulatory Quality (RQ) among the six institutional variables of interest in this study. These results implicate that even the same institutions and policies should be applied and implemented differently depending on the circumstances of each country. In addition, as suggested by the World Bank, policymakers in all countries should double their policy efforts to lower the costs of remittance and improve access to the financial system for immigrants or dispatched workers to ensure a steady inflow of remittances.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.61-66
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• 2020

As asbestos-containing buildings are getting older, asbestos deconstruction works are increasing. As a result, accident risks such as falls, cuts, electric shocks, and suffocation are increasing. Existing studies are mostly about health management and institutional policy research and there is little research on work risk. So workplace risk assessments that are easily applicable in the field are required to be applied. Sealing is the first process of asbestos deconstruction and is the first step to ensure worker's safety. Job Safety Analysis(JSA) and Checklist were used to identify the risk factors and to calculate the level of the risk. By comparing the two risk assessment tools, it was figured out that the JSA is appropriate for the initial process and change of work procedure while Checklist is appropriate for repetitive work. Because the sealing process is sort and simple, it is unlikely to cause serious injury. But since the risk of falling and cuts are exist, safety education and supervision are necessary to maintain a safe working environment.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.59-90
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• 2020

U.S. monetary policy has been claimed to generate global spillover and to destabilize other small open economies. We analyze the effects of certain identified U.S. monetary shocks on gross capital flows in the Korean economy using the local projection method. Consistent with previous results on other small open economies, we initially confirm that U.S. interest rate hikes are dynamically correlated with foreign outflows and residents' inflows. That is, not only are they correlated with withdrawals by foreigners but they are also correlated with those by domestic (Korean) investors. The results are mostly driven by portfolio flows. Second, however, the marginal response to a U.S. monetary policy shock is, on average, subdued if we focus on the sample periods after the Global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (henceforth, global financial crisis). We conjecture a possible reason behind the change, an institutional change related to financial friction. If the degree of pledgeability of the value of net worth increases, the marginal responses by both investors would drop with a U.S. monetary policy shock, consistent with our findings.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.19-40
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• 2013

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) achieved relatively rapid economic growth over the past decade. Sustainable growth among member states, however, is put into question due to macroeconomic challenges, political risk, and vulnerability to external shocks. Developed countries, in contrast, have turned into less labor-intensive technologies to further expand their economies. In this paper, we review the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and statuses of the scientific and technological capabilities of the ASEAN member countries. Empirical results based on STI indicators (R&D spending, publications, patents, and knowledge economy indices) reveal considerable variation between the science and technology (S&T) competence and effectiveness of STI policies of ASEAN members. We have categorized nations into clusters according their situations in their S&T productivity. Under the Korean Innovation Model, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei are classified as being in the institutional-building stage, while Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the catch up stage, and Singapore in the post-catch up stage. Finally, policy prescriptions on how to enhance the S&T capabilities of the developing ASEAN countries, based on the South Korea development experience, are presented.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.303-320
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• 2018

This study analyzes the characteristics of the evolution process of the Gumi National Industrial Complex as well as its external and internal drivers based on the cluster adaptation cycle model. The Gumi National Industrial Complex has made remarkable progress through expansion in spatial and industrial realm and has become a representative IT industry cluster in Korea. It evolved during a growth period from the 1990s, a maturity period from the mid-2000s, and a mature stagnation period from the mid-2010s. But it has now entered a period of decline. While external drivers at the international and national level greatly influenced the Gumi National Industrial Complex in its evolution from foundation-building to maturity, internal drivers such as the outflow of large firms as well as a lack of SME research capacity and institutional base have added to the management difficulties of SMEs in the mature stagnation period. Therefore, in order for the Gumi National Industrial Complex to move into a revitalization period that strengthens resilience against external shocks, it is necessary to enhance the capacity of SMEs by expanding the roles of the central government, local government, and support agencies. In addition, it is necessary to create and embed strong medium enterprises within the Gumi National Industrial Complex, so that the Complex can be reborn as a sustainable innovation ecosystem.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.185-226
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• 2022

This study examines the crisis of trust of French journalism in the context of a global decline of media credibility. First of all, in the process of a huge social movement called the 'yellow vest' movement that started in 2018, distrust of the French journalism was expressed in an extreme form. This study examines some external factors in terms of the historical development of the French journalism and the public's long-standing 'criticism of journalism'. Specifically, this study first examines the quantitative indicators of trust of French journalism which were shown in Digital News Report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. Next, it examines the historical and institutional formation process of French journalism and public distrust that emerged along with it. And specifically, the structural crisis-economic crisis, digital transformation and intensification of competition, and deterioration of quality problems etc.-of the French journalism exposed in media coverage on social movement in 2018 is review in relation with the working process or 'routine' of actual news production. In conclusion, this study asserts that the various aspects of internal rifts in French journalism system, as well as external shocks (the influence of social movements), are a key factor in explaining the recent decline of trust in French journalism.