• Title/Summary/Keyword: Initial Estimation

Search Result 1,044, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

Priority assessment and estimation of annual power generation for potential development site of hydroelectric dam in North Korea (북한지역 수력발전댐 개발가능지점에 대한 연간가능발생전력량 분석 및 개발 우선순위 평가)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.10
    • /
    • pp.929-939
    • /
    • 2018
  • In North Korea, hydropower which occupies about 63% of power generation is a major electric power source, and North Korea has many advantages in the geographical for developing hydroelectric power. In this study, Information on the basin and dam capacity for 33 potential development site of hydroelectric dam was analyzed using DEM, and potential annual power generation was estimated by applying results of long-term runoff simulation with MWSWAT model for recent 30-year. The potential annual power generation at 33 dam was estimated to be about 28% of the current hydroelectric power in North Korea. In addition, a priority of dam development in each province was assessed by estimating the scale of an industry and prospecting the population change in the future. And a priority for dam development within the province was estimated based on the dam capacity and the potential annual power generation. The priority of each province was ranked in order of Pyeongannamdo, Hamgyungnamdo, Hamgyungbukdo, Hwanghaebukdo, Pyeonganbukdo, Jagangdo, Ryanggangdo, Hwanghaenamdo, and Gangwondo. The results of this study can be used as an initial review data for advancing to hydropower development project in North Korea.

Estimation of Total Precipitable Water from MODIS Infrared Measurements over East Asia (MODIS 적외 자료를 이용한 동아시아 지역의 총가강수량 산출)

  • Park, Ho-Sun;Sohn, Byung-Ju;Chung, Eui-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.309-324
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this study the retrieval algorithms have been developed to retrieve total precipitable water (TPW) from Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared measurements using a physical iterative retrieval method and a split-window technique over East Asia. Retrieved results from these algorithms were validated against Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) over ocean and radiosonde observation over land and were analyzed for investigating the key factors affecting the accuracy of results and physical processes of retrieval methods. Atmospheric profiles from Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS), which produces analysis and prediction field of atmospheric variables over East Asia, were used as first-guess profiles for the physical retrieval algorithm. We used RTTOV-7 radiative transfer model to calculate the upwelling radiance at the top of the atmosphere. For the split-window technique, regression coefficients were obtained by relating the calculated brightness temperature to the paired radiosonde-estimated TPW. Physically retrieved TPWs were validated against SSM/I and radiosonde observations for 14 cases in August and December 2004 and results showed that the physical method improves the accuracy of TPW with smaller bias in comparison to TPWs of RDAPS data, MODIS products, and TPWs from split-window technique. Although physical iterative retrieval can reduce the bias of first-guess profiles and bring in more accurate TPWs, the retrieved results show the dependency upon initial guess fields. It is thought that the dependency is due to the fact that the water vapor absorption channels used in this study may not reflect moisture features in particular near surface.

A CFD Study of Oil Spill Velocity from Hole in the Hull of Oil Tanker (유조선 선체 파공에 따른 원유 유출 유속의 CFD 연구)

  • Choi, Dooyoung;Lee, Jungseop;Paik, Joongcheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2018.05a
    • /
    • pp.71-71
    • /
    • 2018
  • Sea pollution accidents have been occurred due to the increase of marine ship traffic. Oil spill from the hull hole induced by tanker collision results in the huge sea pollution. Proper and prompt reaction on such oil spill disaster is needed to minimize the damage. Thru-hull emergency wood plug is typically used to manually close small holes, while it is required to develop some mechanical devices for closing large holes in the hull due to huge fluid pressure. Accurate estimation of oil discharge and velocity from such holes are important to develop proper device to control hull hole damage. High resolution CFD modeling investigation on the configurations of hull hole of 7.5 m initial depth and 30 cm diameter, which was observed in the oil spill accident of the Hebei Sprit off the west coast of Korea in 2007, has been carried out to compute the oil spill velocity distribution in terms of flow depth. Friction loss due to the viscous flow and the discharge coefficient of crude oil with specific gravity SG = 0.85 and viscosity of $4-12cP(mPa{\cdot}s)$ at the temperature of $20^{\circ}C-100^{\circ}C$ are presented in terms of Reynolds number based on the results of high-resolution CFD modeling.

  • PDF

Modified Empirical Formula of Dynamic Amplification Factor for Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (해상풍력발전기 설치선박의 수정 동적증폭계수 추정식)

  • Ma, Kuk-Yeol;Park, Joo-Shin;Lee, Dong-Hun;Seo, Jung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.846-855
    • /
    • 2021
  • Eco-friendly and renewable energy sources are actively being researched in recent times, and of shore wind power generation requires advanced design technologies in terms of increasing the capacities of wind turbines and enlarging wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs). The WTIV ensures that the hull is situated at a height that is not affected by waves. The most important part of the WTIV is the leg structure, which must respond dynamically according to the wave, current, and wind loads. In particular, the wave load is composed of irregular waves, and it is important to know the exact dynamic response. The dynamic response analysis uses a single degree of freedom (SDOF) method, which is a simplified approach, but it is limited owing to the consideration of random waves. Therefore, in industrial practice, the time-domain analysis of random waves is based on the multi degree of freedom (MDOF) method. Although the MDOF method provides high-precision results, its data convergence is sensitive and difficult to apply owing to design complexity. Therefore, a dynamic amplification factor (DAF) estimation formula is developed in this study to express the dynamic response characteristics of random waves through time-domain analysis based on different variables. It is confirmed that the calculation time can be shortened and accuracy enhanced compared to existing MDOF methods. The developed formula will be used in the initial design of WTIVs and similar structures.

A Study on the Estimation of Additional Cost for the Certification of Zero Energy Apartment Buildings (공동주택 제로에너지빌딩 인증을 위한 적정가산비 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Sa, Yong-gi;Haan, Chan Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.21-30
    • /
    • 2019
  • Environmental and energy issues such as abnormal climate and depletion of fossil fuel due to global warming have emerged as a critical task to threaten human survival. As a result, interest in the Zero Energy Building is increasing as it is an innovative building that can significantly contribute to building energy reduction and greenhouse gas reduction. In the market, however, the added cost of construction is a major stumbling block to the revitalization of the Zero Energy certification. In this study, general private apartment complexes were selected for research, detailed elements for Zero Energy certification were presented based on the construction criteria for eco-friendly houses from the initial design stage, and the cost efficiency analysis of the components for certification were presented. It has been analyzed that only Grade 3 certification can be implemented in apartments due to technical level and physical limitations. Also, after reviewing the cost trend during the lifecycle cost, all expenses can be recovered within 13 years after completion only in the case of grade 5 of the Zero Energy Building. The additional costs proposed in the present study are reflected appropriately in the review of projects for apartments scheduled for order in the future to contribute to the revitalization of the Zero Energy Building certification.

Evaluation of GPM satellite and S-band radar rain data for flood simulation using conditional merging method and KIMSTORM2 distributed model (조건부합성 기법과 KIMSTORM2 분포형 수문모형을 이용한 GPM 위성 강우자료 및 Radar 강우자료의 홍수모의 평가)

  • Kim, Se Hoon;Jung, Chung Gil;Jang, Won Jin;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.52 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-33
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study performed to simulate the watershed storm runoff using data of S-band dual-polarization radar rain, GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) satellite rain, and observed rainfall at 21 ground stations operated by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) respectively. For the 3 water level gauge stations (Sancheong, Changchon, and Namgang) of NamgangDam watershed ($2,293km^2$), the KIMSTORM2 (KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model2) was applied and calibrated with parameters of initial soil moisture contents, Manning's roughness of overland and stream to the event of typhoon CHABA (82 mm in watershed aveprage) in $5^{th}$ October 2016. The radar and GPM data was corrected with CM (Conditional Merging) method such as CM-corrected Radar and CM-corrected GPM. The CM has been used for accurate rainfall estimation in water resources and meteorological field and the method combined measured ground rainfall and spatial data such as radar and satellite images by the kriging interpolation technique. For the CM-corrected Radar and CM-corrected GPM data application, the determination coefficient ($R^2$) was 0.96 respectively. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.96 and the Volume Conservation Index (VCI) was 1.03 respectively. The CM-corrected data of Radar and GPM showed good results for the CHABA peak runoff and runoff volume simulation and improved all of $R^2$, NSE, and VCI comparing with the original data application. Thus, we need to use and apply the radar and satellite data to monitor the flood within the watershed.

Applicability of the Wind Erosion Prediction System for prediction of soil loss by wind in arable land

  • Lee, Kyo-Suk;Seo, Il-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Phil;Lim, Chul-Soon;Lee, Dong-Sung;Min, Se-Won;Jung, Hyun-Gyu;Yang, Jae-Eui;Chung, Doug-Young
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.47 no.4
    • /
    • pp.845-857
    • /
    • 2020
  • The precise estimation of accelerated soil wind erosion that can cause severe economic and environmental impacts still has not been achieved to date. The objectives of this investigation were to verify the applicability of a Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) that expressed the soil loss as mass per area for specific areas of interest on a daily basis for a single event in arable lands. To this end, we selected and evaluated the results published by Hagen in 2004 and the soil depth converted from the mass of soil losses obtained by using the WEPS. Hagen's results obtained from the WEPS model followed the 1 : 1 line between predicted and measured value for soil losses with only less than 2 kg·m-2 whereas the values between the measured and predicted loss did not show any correlation for the given field conditions due to the initial field surface condition although the model provided reasonable estimates of soil loss. Calculated soil depths of the soil loss by wind for both the observed and predicted ones ranged from 0.004 to 3.113 cm·10 a-1 and from 0 to 2.013 cm·10 a-1, respectively. Comparison of the soil depths between the observed and predicted ones did not show any good relationship, and there was no soil loss in the predicted one while slight soil loss was measured in the observed one. Therefore, varying the essential model inputs and factors related to wind speed and soil properties are needed to accurately estimate soil loss for a given field in arable land.

Estimation of the Cost of Hypertension Disease Loss in 2010-2017 Using Cohort at Diagnosis Age and Treatment Time (진단나이 및 치료시점 코호트를 활용한 2010~2017년 고혈압 질환 손실비 추계)

  • Noh, Yun-Gon;Lee, Sang-Ho;Choi, Kyungsik;Song, Tae Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.782-793
    • /
    • 2022
  • The rise in chronic disease not only has a negative effect on people's lives, but it also increases the cost of medical care owing to the increased usage of medical care as health and medical technology improves, life expectancy rises, and rapid population ageing. In such context, this study examined the difference in the disease cost of hypertension according to demographic information and the effect of the initial diagnosis age and treatment period on the cost. This study used the Korean Health Panel Survey from 2010 to 2017, and selected subjects based on health insurance beneficiaries between the ages of 30 and under 80. With the selected data, the direct and indirect costs of disease loss were calculated according to the cost of illness approach, and we constructed a disease-loss ratio cohort considering the age of diagnosis and time of treatment for hypertension. From the results of the study, the annual cost of disease loss for hypertensive patients differed by gender by 110,107 won, and it was found that the cost increased by 1.8 times as the treatment time increased. In addition, when comparing disease loss ratios between the same age groups, it was found that the disease loss ratios between those in their 60s and 70s were affected by treatment time. This study confirmed that hypertension significantly affects the cost of the disease, and not only requires early diagnosis and management, but also preventive efforts to lower the incidence of hypertensive disease must be strengthened.

Estimation of the Source Adult Population for Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Appearing in Early Spring in Korea: An Approach with Phenology Modeling (국내에서 이른 봄 출현하는 검거세미밤나방 성충집단의 기원 추정: 페놀로지 모형을 통한 접근)

  • Sori Choi;Jinwoo Heo;Subin Kim;Myeongeun Jwa;Yonggyun Shin;Dong-Soon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-47
    • /
    • 2023
  • The black cutworm, Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel), is an important crop pest worldwide that feeds more than 80 plant species including cabbage, potato, maize, wheat and bean, and this moth is a typical pest attacking underground parts of crops. It has been known in farm booklets that the larvae of A. ipsilon overwinter in the soil in Korea, but no definitive data exist yet. This study was conducted to evaluate that the specific appearance time of A. ipsilon observed actually in the field could be explained when we assumed that this pest overwinters in a form of larvae or pupae. Degree day-based phenology models were applied for tracking forward or backward to find the predicted developmental stage which developed at a specific stage found in the field. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that an initial population could be established in a group that does not overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea. In other words, the appearance of adults in early March to April could not be explained by the presence of domestic overwintering populations. Populations that overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea were able to emerge as adults in June to July at the earliest. Therefore, the group of adults appearing in early spring is highly likely to be a population that migrated from outside Korea. Taken together, it was estimated that the colony of A. ipsilon in Korea would be formed by a mixture of a migrant population through long-distance migration and a overwintering population.

Estimation of Non-linear Strength and Stiffness for Silty Sands (실트질 모래지반의 비선형 강도 및 강성도 추정법)

  • Lee Kyung-Sook;Kim Hyun-Ju;Lee Jun-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.35-44
    • /
    • 2006
  • In general typically granular soils contain a certain amount of fines. It is also widely recognized that foundation soils under working loads show highly non-linear behavior from very early stages of loading. In the present study, a series of laboratory tests with sands of different silt contents are conducted and methods to assess strength and stiffiness characteristics are proposed. Modified hyperbolic stress-strain model is used to analyze non-linearity of silty sands in terms of non-linear Degradation parameters f and g as a function of silt contents and Relative density Dr. Stress-strain curves were obtained from a series of triaxial tests on sands containing different amounts of silt. Initial shear modulus, which is used to normalize Degradation modulus of silty sands, was determined from resonant column test results. From the laboratory test results, it was observed that, as the Relative density increases, values of f decrease and those of g increase. In addition, it was found that values of f and g increase and decrease respectively as a Skeleton void ratio $(e_{sk})$ increases.