• 유통과학연구
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2014

Purpose - The world now recognizes environmental disruption as a serious issue when regarding growth-oriented strategies; therefore, environmental preservation issues become pertinent. Consequently, green distribution is continuously emphasized. However, studying the prediction and association of distribution and the environment is insufficient. Most existing studies about green distribution are about its necessity, detailed operation methods, and political suggestions; it is necessary to study the distribution service industry and environmental service industry together, for green distribution. Research design, data, and methodology - ARIMA (auto-regressive moving average model) was used to predict the environmental service and distribution service industries, and the Granger Causality Test based on VAR (vector auto regressive) was used to analyze the causal relationship. This study used 48 quarters of time-series data, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 3rd quarter in 2013, about each business type's production index, and used an unchangeable index. The production index about the business type is classified into the current index and the unchangeable index. The unchangeable index divides the current index into deflators to remove fluctuation. Therefore, it is easy to analyze the actual production index. This study used the unchangeable index. Results - The production index of the distribution service industry and the production index of the environmental service industry consider the autocorrelation coefficient and partial autocorrelation coefficient; therefore, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)4 and ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,1)4 were established as final prediction models, resulting in the gradual improvement in every production index of both types of business. Regarding the distribution service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 114.35, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 123.48. Moreover, regarding the environmental service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 110.95, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 111.67. In a causal relationship analysis, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. Conclusions - This study predicted the distribution service industry and environmental service industry with the ARIMA model, and examined the causal relationship between them through the Granger causality test based on the VAR Model. Prediction reveals the seasonality and gradual increase in the two industries. Moreover, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. This study contributed academically by offering base line data needed in the establishment of a future style of management and policy directions for the two industries through the prediction of the distribution service industry and the environmental service industry, and tested a causal relationship between them, which is insufficient in existing studies. The limitations of this study are that deeper considerations of advanced studies are deficient, and the effect of causality between the two types of industries on the actual industry was not established.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제15권10호
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• pp.457-467
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• 2015

최근 전세가격 상승과 저금리 저성장 시대에도 불구하고 금융 및 보험업의 산업 생산지수는 전 산업생산지수 대비 지속적으로 상승폭을 유지하면서 일반적인 상식에 반하는 현상이 나타나고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 금융업 산업생산지수와 전세가격 상승의 동태적 상관관계를 분석함으로써 전세가격 상승이 금융업 산업생산지수에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 이를 위해 전세가격지수와 거시경제 변수인 전 산업생산지수, 금융 및 보험업 생산지수의 변수를 정의하고, 공적분 관계가 없는 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR)을 이용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 2000년 1월부터 2015년 5월말까지 총 183개월의 시계열 데이터 분석결과 전세가격상승이 직접적으로 금융업 생산지수에 인과 관계를 나타내지는 않았으나 금융업 산업생산지수의 상승이 전세가격 상승에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 곧 전세가격의 구조적 변화와 주택금융의 관계 분석을 통해 실질적인 주택 관련 정책이 금융산업에 직접적인 영향을 줄 수 있음을 시사한다.

• 토지주택연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.33-37
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• 2020

The aim of this paper is to scrutinize the relation between Business Survey Index and Industrial Production Index in construction industry, stated in another way, the relation between CEO's expectations of future business status and real business activity in construction industry. Previous papers on this research area have been examined the relation between released BSI and released IPI. However, this paper focuses 'the relation between released BSI and the long-run component of IPI' and 'the relation between released BSI and the short-run component of IPI'. The first step is to decompose released IPI by unobserved component model. The long-run component of IPI is set up as a random walk process. And short-run component is set up as a stationary AR(1) process. The findings are as follows. First, released BSI Granger causes unidirectionally released IPI. Second, there exists one-way Granger causality from released BSI to long-run component of IPI. Third, Granger causality does not exist between released BSI and 'short-run component of IPI'. BSI increases IPI in the second or third month. These findings of this paper mean that CEO's expectations may influence industrial production in construction industry.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.17-25
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• 2017

Purpose - The study is to examine the impact of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Korea and the US industrial economy including the distribution industry. We analyze its effect on the industrial economy centered on the distribution industry using economy indices in Korea and the US. Research design, data, and methodology - The variables are used to analyze the dynamic relationship which occurs among the US PMI, the industrial production index, producer price index, unemployment rate, and manufacturing Inventories Index in Korea and the US from January 1990 to July 2016 using Vector Error Correction Model. Results - As a main result, the impact of the US PMI on all the economy indices both Korea and the US has the same cyclical movement. The US PMI is positively related to the producer price and the industrial production index of Korea and the US, while it is negatively related to unemployment rate, and the manufacturing inventories index in Korea and the US. Conclusions - The US PMI as an advanced index has a power to predict the economies on Korea and the US. In the end, we find that the US PMI has a great impact on Korea and the US industrial economy.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.364-373
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• 1998

This study examines the international competitiveness of the Korean information and telecommunication industry by using competitiveness index such as the RCA index, the Trade Specialization index, and the Total Factor Productivity. The results of this study show that the industry's competitiveness slightly decreases since 1995, but not its the total factor productivity. In conclusion, the industry has kept the competitiveness over all. Therefore, to keep or improve the competitiveness continuously, the industry is required the government's intensive investment and administrative support. And the industry should bring up by venture and small-medium-size-enterprises to have great economic impacts on other industries. Also, the increasing production and export promoting policy will be enhance the industry and improve nation's balance of trade.

• Spatial Information Research
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 산업연관분석을 통해 공간정보산업의 특징을 도출하였다. 이를 위하여 공간정보산업을 재분류하고 이에 맞게 산업연관표를 수정하여 공간정보산업을 분석하였으며 생산유발계수, 영향력계수, 감응력계수를 도출하였다. 그 결과 공간정보산업은 생산유발효과는 작으나 전방연쇄효과가 매우 큰 산업으로 확인되었다. 이를 기반으로 공간정보산업 육성을 위한 정책의 방향성을 '산업생태계 조성, 고도화와 활용도 향상 병행, 장기적 관점 수립'으로 제시하였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.103-112
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• 2013

1990년대 이후 국가경제에서 미치는 영향이 감소 추세에 들어선 건설업은 호황과 불황을 넘나들고 있다. 건설업의 경기변동이 심할수록 경기예측은 어려워지며, 불확실한 예측의 피해는 기업과 건설 종사자들이 직접적으로 받게 되므로 건설경기를 예측하는 것은 매우 어려우면서 중요한 일이다. 본 연구에서는 건설경기를 나타내는 지표 중 하나인 건설업생산지수를 GDP와 기온효과를 이용하여 실질소득과 야외활동이 많은 건설업의 특성에 따라 기온효과를 반영한 공급측면에서의 단기 건설 경기예측 모형을 제시하였다. 분석결과, 건설경기는 뚜렷한 기온효과가 있으며 GDP에도 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 과정을 통해 입증된 건설경기 예측모델을 기반으로 GDP예상증가율 3.5%와 2.4%일 때, 두 가지 시나리오로 2013년도 건설업생산지수를 예측하였다. 본 연구결과는 건설업의 경기를 판단하는 지표 중 하나로 활용 가능할 것이며, 향후 기후변화가 건설업에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구의 초석이 될 것이다.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2014

The number of manufacturing companies that demand the ability to assess sustainability in their manufacturing system is rapidly increasing. However, there are still difficulties in assessing their sustainability in manufacturing for decision-making since it is not easy to determine a single index of sustainability in an operational way. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes an operational guidance and system to assess sustainability of production plan as a single index. The IDEF0 model was defined to explain processes and their input, output, control, and mechanism for sustainability assessment. A prototype system was developed based on the concepts presented in the IDEF0 model, and applied to a case study. To conclude, the prototype system proposed in this paper can help manufacturing companies assess sustainability of their production plans and make a decision using a single value resulted from that assessment.

• 한국펄프종이공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국펄프종이공학회 2009년도 춘계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.109-110
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• 2009

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.67-74
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• 2017

Purpose - The main purpose of this study is to contribute to the elevation of producers' production at various levels by proposing the creation of producer improvement indexes that can be used for the successful 6th industrialization of Korean agribusiness based on the Kano model and has synergistic effects on the development of the 6th industry through scientific researches. Research design, data, methodology - To this end, this study derived better and worse index from the same estimation of Timko's customer satisfaction index as in the evaluation charts used in previous researches and theoretical studies on the Kano model. Results - In this paper, we suggested that the formula for producing PSCI Index be applied to yield the producer improvement index in the 6th industry, in order to draw SIPPI. Conclusions - If this suggestion is realized, then a lot of researchers will be supported to more systematically study producers, and it is expected to contribute to the development of the 1th industry, a basis for the successful 6th industry. Moreover, the central government and municipalities are expected to provide a variety of clues for applying various policies for successful agribusiness.