• Title/Summary/Keyword: Improvement of prediction performance

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Development of safety-Based Guidelines for Cost-Effective Utility Pole Treatment along Highway Rights-of-Way

  • 김정현
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1997.12a
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    • pp.33-69
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to develop a methodology to predict utility pole accident rates and to evaluate cost-effectiveness for safety improvement for utility pole accidents. The utility pole accident rate prediction model was based on the encroachment rate approach introduced in the Transportation Research Board Special Report 214. The utility pole accident rate on a section of highway depends on the roadside encroachment rate and the lateral extent of encroachment. The encroachment rate is influenced by the horizontal and vertical alignment of the highway as well as traffic volume and mean speed. The lateral extent of encroachment is affected by the horizontal and vertical alignment, the mean speed and the roadside slope. An analytical method to generate the probability distribution function for the lateral extent of encroachment was developed for six kinds of encroachment types by the horizontal alignment and encroachment direction. The encroachment rate was calibrated with the information on highway and roadside conditions and the utility pole accident records collected on the sections of 55mph speed limit of the State Trunk Highway 12 in Wisconsin. The encroachment rate on a tangent segment was calibrated as a function of traffic volume with the actual average utility pole accident rates by traffic volume strategies. The adjustment factors for horizontal and vertical alignment were then derived by comparing the actual average utility pole accident rates to the estimations from the model calibrated for tangent and level sections. A computerized benefit-cost analysis procedure was then developed as a means of evaluating alternative countermeasures. The program calculates the benefit-cost ratio and the percent of reduction of utility pole accidents resulting from the implementation of a safety improvement. This program can be used to develop safety improvement: alternatives for utility pole accidents when a predetermined performance level is specified.

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Development of safety-Based Guidelines for Cost-Effective Utility Pole Treatment along Highway Rights-of-way

  • 김정현
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1997.12b
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    • pp.35-72
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to develop a methodology to predict utility pole accident rates and to evaluate cost-effectiveness for safety improvement for utility pole accidents. The utility pole accident rate prediction model was based on the encroachment rate approach introduced in the Transportation Research Board special Report 214. The utility pole accident rate on a section of highway depends on the roadside encroachment rate and the lateral extent of encroachment. The encroachment rate is influenced by the horizontal and vertical alignment of the highway as well as traffic volume and mean speed. The lateral extent of encroachment is affected by the horizontal and vertical alignment, the mean speed and the roadside slope. An analytical method to generate the probability distribution function for the lateral extent of encroachment was developed for six kinds of encroachment types by the horizontal alignment and encroachment direction. The encroachment rate was calibrated with the information on highway and roadside conditions and the utility pole accident records collected on the sections of 55mph speed limit of the State Trunk Highway 12 in Wisconsin. The encroachment rate on tangent segment was calibrated as a function of traffic volume with the actual average utility pole accident rates by traffic volume strategies. The adjustment factors for horizontal and vertical alignment were when derived by comparing the actual average utility pole accident rates to the estimations from the model calibrated for tangent and level sections. A computerized benefit-cost analysis procedure was then developed as a means of evaluating alternative countermeasures. The program calculates the benefit-cost ratio and the percent of reduction of utility pole accidents resulting from the implementation of a safety improvement. This program can be used to develop safety improvement alternatives for utility pole accidents when a predetermined performance level is specified.

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Prediction Model of User Physical Activity using Data Characteristics-based Long Short-term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

  • Kim, Joo-Chang;Chung, Kyungyong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.2060-2077
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    • 2019
  • Recently, mobile healthcare services have attracted significant attention because of the emerging development and supply of diverse wearable devices. Smartwatches and health bands are the most common type of mobile-based wearable devices and their market size is increasing considerably. However, simple value comparisons based on accumulated data have revealed certain problems, such as the standardized nature of health management and the lack of personalized health management service models. The convergence of information technology (IT) and biotechnology (BT) has shifted the medical paradigm from continuous health management and disease prevention to the development of a system that can be used to provide ground-based medical services regardless of the user's location. Moreover, the IT-BT convergence has necessitated the development of lifestyle improvement models and services that utilize big data analysis and machine learning to provide mobile healthcare-based personal health management and disease prevention information. Users' health data, which are specific as they change over time, are collected by different means according to the users' lifestyle and surrounding circumstances. In this paper, we propose a prediction model of user physical activity that uses data characteristics-based long short-term memory (DC-LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs). To provide personalized services, the characteristics and surrounding circumstances of data collectable from mobile host devices were considered in the selection of variables for the model. The data characteristics considered were ease of collection, which represents whether or not variables are collectable, and frequency of occurrence, which represents whether or not changes made to input values constitute significant variables in terms of activity. The variables selected for providing personalized services were activity, weather, temperature, mean daily temperature, humidity, UV, fine dust, asthma and lung disease probability index, skin disease probability index, cadence, travel distance, mean heart rate, and sleep hours. The selected variables were classified according to the data characteristics. To predict activity, an LSTM RNN was built that uses the classified variables as input data and learns the dynamic characteristics of time series data. LSTM RNNs resolve the vanishing gradient problem that occurs in existing RNNs. They are classified into three different types according to data characteristics and constructed through connections among the LSTMs. The constructed neural network learns training data and predicts user activity. To evaluate the proposed model, the root mean square error (RMSE) was used in the performance evaluation of the user physical activity prediction method for which an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a convolutional neural network (CNN), and an RNN were used. The results show that the proposed DC-LSTM RNN method yields an excellent mean RMSE value of 0.616. The proposed method is used for predicting significant activity considering the surrounding circumstances and user status utilizing the existing standardized activity prediction services. It can also be used to predict user physical activity and provide personalized healthcare based on the data collectable from mobile host devices.

A Performance Improvement Method using Variable Break in Corpus Based Japanese Text-to-Speech System (가변 Break를 이용한 코퍼스 기반 일본어 음성 합성기의 성능 향상 방법)

  • Na, Deok-Su;Min, So-Yeon;Lee, Jong-Seok;Bae, Myung-Jin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2009
  • In text-to-speech systems, the conversion of text into prosodic parameters is necessarily composed of three steps. These are the placement of prosodic boundaries. the determination of segmental durations, and the specification of fundamental frequency contours. Prosodic boundaries. as the most important and basic parameter. affect the estimation of durations and fundamental frequency. Break prediction is an important step in text-to-speech systems as break indices (BIs) have a great influence on how to correctly represent prosodic phrase boundaries, However. an accurate prediction is difficult since BIs are often chosen according to the meaning of a sentence or the reading style of the speaker. In Japanese, the prediction of an accentual phrase boundary (APB) and major phrase boundary (MPB) is particularly difficult. Thus, this paper presents a method to complement the prediction errors of an APB and MPB. First, we define a subtle BI in which it is difficult to decide between an APB and MPB clearly as a variable break (VB), and an explicit BI as a fixed break (FB). The VB is chosen using the classification and regression tree, and multiple prosodic targets in relation to the pith and duration are then generated. Finally. unit-selection is conducted using multiple prosodic targets. In the MOS test result. the original speech scored a 4,99. while proposed method scored a 4.25 and conventional method scored a 4.01. The experimental results show that the proposed method improves the naturalness of synthesized speech.

Statistical Genetic Studies on Cattle Breeding for Dairy Productivity in Bangladesh: I. Genetic Improvement for Milk Performance of Local Cattle Populations

  • Hossain, K.B.;Takayanagi, S.;Miyake, T.;Moriya, K.;Bhuiyan, A.K.F.H.;Sasaki, Y.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.627-632
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    • 2002
  • Genetic parameters for dairy performance traits were estimated, breeding values for the traits of all breeding sires and cows were predicted and the genetic trends were estimated using the breeding values in the Central Cattle Breeding Station (CCBS). A total of 3,801 records for Bangladeshi Local, 756 records for Red Sindhi and 959 records for Sahiwal covering the period from 1961 to 1997 were used in this analysis. Traits considered were total milk production per lactation (TLP), lactation length (LL) and daily milk yield (DMY). The genetic parameters were estimated by the REML using MTDFREML program. The breeding values were predicted by a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). In all sets of data, the genetic trends for the dairy performance traits were computed as averages of breeding values for cows born in the particular year. The estimates of heritability for TLP (0.26 and 0.27) and DMY (0.28 and 0.27) were moderate in Bangladeshi local and Red Sindhi breed, respectively. Furthermore, the heritability estimate for LL (0.24) was moderate in Red Sindhi. The estimates of heritabilities for all traits were low in Sahiwal. The repeatability estimate was high for TLP, moderate for LL and moderate to high for DMY. All variances estimated in Bangladeshi Local were low, comparing the respective values estimated in both Red Sindhi and Sahiwal. On the other hand, additive genetic variances for the three traits were estimated very low in Sahiwal. The genetic trends for the three dairy production traits have not been positive except for the recent trend in Bangladeshi Local.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Improvement of Atmospheric Dispersion Model Performance by Pretreatment of Dispersion Coefficients (분산계수의 전처리에 의한 대기분산모델 성능의 개선)

  • Park, Ok-Hyun;Kim, Gyung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2007
  • Dispersion coefficient preprocessing schemes have been examined to improve plume dispersion model performance in complex coastal areas. The performances of various schemes for constructing the sigma correction order were evaluated through estimations of statistical measures, such as bias, gross error, R, FB, NMSE, within FAC2, MG, VG, IOA, UAPC and MRE. This was undertaken for the results of dispersion modeling, which applied each scheme. Environmental factors such as sampling time, surface roughness, plume rising, plume height and terrain rolling were considered in this study. Gaussian plume dispersion model was used to calculate 1 hr $SO_2$ concentration 4 km downwind from a power plant in Boryeung coastal area. Here, measured data for January to December of 2002 were obtained so that modelling results could be compared. To compare the performances between various schemes, integrated scores of statistical measures were obtained by giving weights for each measure and then summing each score. This was done because each statistical measure has its own function and criteria; as a result, no measure can be taken as a sole index indicative of the performance level for each modeling scheme. The best preprocessing scheme was discerned using the step-wise method. The most significant factor influencing the magnitude of real dispersion coefficients appeared to be sampling time. A second significant factor appeared to be surface roughness, with the rolling terrain being the least significant for elevated sources in a gently rolling terrain. The best sequence of correcting the sigma from P-G scheme was found to be the combination of (1) sampling time, (2) surface roughness, (3) plume rising, (4) plume height, and (5) terrain rolling.

Development of a Model for Comparing Risk-adjusted Mortality Rates of Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients (급성심근경색증 환자의 진료 질 평가를 위한 병원별 사망률 예측 모형 개발)

  • Park, Hyeung-Keun;Ahn, Hyeong-Sik
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.216-231
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: To develop a model that predicts a death probability of acute myocardial infarction(AMI) patient, and to evaluate a performance of hospital services using the developed model. Methods: Medical records of 861 AMI patients in 7 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by two trained nurses. Variables studied were risk factors which were measured in terms of severity measures. A risk model was developed by using the logistic regression, and its performance was evaluated using cross-validation and bootstrap techniques. The statistical prediction capability of the model was assessed by using c-statistic, $R^2$ as well as Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The model performance was also evaluated using severity-adjusted mortalities of hospitals. Results: Variables included in the model building are age, sex, ejection fraction, systolic BP, congestive heart failure at admission, cardiac arrest, EKG ischemia, arrhythmia, left anterior descending artery occlusion, verbal response within 48 hours after admission, acute neurological change within 48 hours after admission, and 3 interaction terms. The c statistics and $R^2$ were 0.887 and 0.2676. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 6.3355 (p-value=0.6067). Among 7 hospitals evaluated by the model, two hospitals showed significantly higher mortality rates, while other two hospitals had significantly lower mortality rates, than the average mortality rate of all hospitals. The remaining hospitals did not show any significant difference. Conclusion: The comparison of the qualities of hospital service using risk-adjusted mortality rates indicated significant difference among them. We therefore conclude that risk-adjusted mortality rate of AMI patients can be used as an indicator for evaluating hospital performance in Korea.

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A Temporal Convolutional Network for Hotel Demand Prediction Based on NSGA3 Feature Selection

  • Keehyun Park;Gyeongho Jung;Hyunchul Ahn
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.10
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2024
  • Demand forecasting is a critical element of revenue management in the tourism industry. Since the 2010s, with the globalization of the tourism industry and the increase of different forms of marketing and information sharing, such as SNS, forecasting has become difficult due to non-linear activities and unstructured information. Various forecasting models for resolving the problems have been studied, and ML models have been used effectively. In this study, we applied the feature selection technique (NSGA3) to time series models and compared their performance. In hotel demand forecasting, it was found that the TCN model has a high forecasting performance of MAPE 9.73% with a performance improvement of 7.05% compared to no feature selection. The results of this study are expected to be useful for decision support through improved forecasting performance.

Effect of interprofessional education programs in Healthcare (보건의료계열 다직종 연계 교육프로그램의 효과)

  • Jung Hee Park;Hyun Il Kim;Mi Hyang Lee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to develop an Interprofessinal Education(IPE) program for third-year healthcare students to provide patient safety-oriented services and demonstrate professionalism, and to determine the effects of applying the program for five days on patient safety knowledge and patient safety performance confidence. Key topics included understanding job roles by profession, training in patient risk prediction, scenario-based patient experience, and strategies for identifying improvement. As a result of the study, after the application of the IPE program, the patient safety knowledge decreased statistically significantly from 39 points to 37 points(p=.007). The patient safety performance confidence increased statistically significantly from 6.71 pints to 7.50 points(p<.001). In addition, students who experienced clinical practice had higher patient safety knowledge after applying the IPE program, but there was no difference in patient safety performance. Repeated studies are recommended to prove the effectiveness of the IPE program, and specific measures should be taken to expand and continuously manage the IPE program.