• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.173-182
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze climate change effects by using statistical trends and a watershed model in the Yongdam dam watershed. The annual average air temperature was found to increase with statistical significance. In particular, greater increases were observed in autumn. Also, this study was performed to evaluate the potential climate change in the streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model (HSPF) with RCP climate change scenarios. The streamflow of Geum river showed a decrease of 5.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the baseline data for the 2040s and 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the streamflow showed a decrease in the summer and an increase in the winter. The water temperature of Geum river showed an average increase of 0.7~1.0℃. Especially, the water temperature of Geum river showed an increase of 0.3~0.5℃ in the 2040s and 0.5~1.2℃ in the 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the water temperature showed an increase in winter and spring, with a decrease in summer. Therefore, it was determined that a statistical analysis-based meteorological and quantitative forecast of streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model is necessary to assess climate change impact and to establish plans for future water resource management.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.295-303
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• 2021

The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the issue of poverty is one of the most acute social problems of the beginning of the third millennium. The phenomenon of poverty is widespread in third world countries as well as it is observed in relatively developed countries. Poverty rates in Latin America are threatening. Consequently, the issue of social and economic inequality in these countries has become extremely acute. The purpose of the research: to identify the causes of poverty and social inequality and substantiate the main directions of poverty reduction in third world countries. The research methods: comparative analysis; index method; systematization; grouping; generalization. Results. The classification of the causes of poverty has been carried out and the directions of its overcoming in the countries of Latin America on groups of indicators have been defined, namely: 1) political; 2) economic; 3) demographic; 4) regional-geographical; 5) social; 6) qualification; 7) personal. Based on the Net Domestic Product indicator, a comparison of economic indicators of the studied countries has been carried out. It has been revealed that from 1990 to 2018 income inequality increased in 52 of 119 countries studied, and decreased in 57 states. Inequality has increased in the world's most populous countries, particularly China and India. In general, countries with growing inequality are home to more than two-thirds (71%) of the world's population. Trends in the distribution of income in the world have been investigated by applying the Gini index, the high level of which is observed in Latin America (Colombia 48,9%, Panama 46,1%, Chile and Mexico 45,9%). The forecast of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on this issue has been outlined; the ways of its impact on the economies of the countries have been studied. As a result of the study, the main directions and mechanisms of the strategy for poverty reduction and social inequality in the third world countries have been identified. The implementation of the poverty reduction strategy presented in this academic paper may have a positive impact on the economic situation of the population of Latin American countries.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.1397-1405
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• 2017

As the introduction of wind power is steadily increasing, negative effects of wind power become more important. To operate a power system more reliable, the system operator needs to recognize the maximum required capacity of available generators for a certain period. For recognizing the maximum capacity, this paper proposes a methodology to determine an optimal reserve requirement considering wind power, for the certain period in the mid-term perspective. As wind speed is predicted earlier, the difference of the forecasted and the actual wind speed becomes greater. All possible forecast errors should be considered in determining optimal reserve, and they are represented explicitly by the proposed matrix form in this paper. In addition, impacts of the generator failure are also analyzed using the matrix form. Through three main stages which are the scheduling, contingency and evaluation stages, costs associated with power generation, reserve procurement and the usage, and the reliability cost are calculated. The optimal reserve requirement is determined so as to minimize the sum of these costs based on the cost/reliability analysis. In case study, it is performed to analyze the impact of wind power penetration on the reserve requirement, and how major factors affect it.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.311-326
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• 2021

To improve the predictability of high-impact weather phenomena around Seoul, where a larger number of people are densely populated, KMA conducted the intensive observation from 22 June to 20 September in 2020 over the Seoul area. During the intensive observation period (IOP), the dropsonde from NIMS Atmospheric Research Aircraft (NARA) and the radiosonde from KMA research vessel Gisang1 were observed in the Yellow Sea, while, in the land, the radiosonde observation data were collected from Icheon and Incheon. Therefore, in this study, the effects of radiosonde and dropsonde data during the IOP were investigated by Observing System Experiment (OSE) based on Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We conducted two experiments: CTL assimilated the operational fifteen kinds of observations, and EXP assimilated not only operational observation data but also intensive observation data. Verifications over the Korean Peninsula area of two experiments were performed against analysis and observation data. The results showed that the predictability of short-range forecast (1~2 day) was improved for geopotential height at middle level and temperature at lower level. In three precipitation cases, EXP improved the distribution of precipitation against CTL. In typhoon cases, the predictability of EXP for typhoon track was better than CTL, although both experiments simulated weaker intensity as compared with the observed data.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.146-157
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• 2019

One of the most distinctive features of the South Korean rural environment is that the variation of weather or climate is large even within a small area due to complex terrains. The Geospatial Schemes based on Topo-Climatology (GSTP) was developed to simulate such variations effectively. In the present study, we reviewed the progress of the geospatial schemes for production of farm-scale agricultural weather data. Efforts have been made to improve the GSTP since 2000s. The schemes were used to provide climate information based on the current normal year and future climate scenarios at a landscape scale. The digital climate maps for the normal year include the maps of the monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation in the past 30 years at 30 m or 270 m spatial resolution. Based on these digital climate maps, future climate change scenario maps were also produced at the high spatial resolution. These maps have been used for climate change impact assessment at the field scale by reprocessing them and transforming them into various forms. In the 2010s, the GSTP model was used to produce information for farm-specific weather conditions and weather forecast data on a landscape scale. The microclimate models of which the GSTP model consists have been improved to provide detailed weather condition data based on daily weather observation data in recent development. Using such daily data, the Early warning service for agrometeorological hazard has been developed to provide weather forecasts in real-time by processing a digital forecast and mid-term weather forecast data (KMA) at 30 m spatial resolution. Currently, daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation quantity, and the duration of sunshine are forecasted as detailed weather conditions and forecast information. Moreover, based on farm-specific past-current-future weather information, growth information for various crops and agrometeorological disaster forecasts have been produced.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2013

Econometric forecast models based on past time-series data have been applied to a wide variety of applications due to their advantages in short-term point estimating. These models are particularly used in predicting the impact of governmental research and development (R&D) programs because program managers should assert their feasibility due to R&D program's huge amount of budget. The construction governmental R&D programs, however, separately make an investment by dividing total budget into five sub-business area. It make R&D program managers difficult to understand how R&D programs affect the whole system including economy because they are restricted with regard to many dependent and dynamic variables. In this regard, system dynamics (SD) model provides an analytic solution for complex, nonlinear, and dynamic systems such as the impacts of R&D programs by focusing on interactions among variables and understanding their structures. This research, therefore, developed SD model to capture the different impacts of five construction R&D sub-business by considering different characteristics of sub-business area. To overcome the SD's disadvantages in point estimating, this research also proposed the method for constructing quantitative forecasting model using qualitative data. Understanding the different characteristics of each construction R&D sub-business can support R&D program managers to demonstrate their feasibility of capital investment.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.249-258
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• 2006

Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 1997.12a
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• pp.177-196
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• 1997

The engineering industry plays an important role for national competitive, since it has an high impact on other industries. With its importance, the engineering industry development largely depends on its technical manpower ather than capital factor. This study aims at estimating the additional requirement on technical manpower based on the forecasted market size which represents the structure change corresponding to economic growth in related industry. Research scope includes the twelve of fifteen field except three with insufficient historical data and technical manpower above bachelor degree. Specialty, we forecast market size with determinants resulted from historical data analysis on each field. The demand on technical manpower is derived from the forecasted market. We also estimate an additional requirement with the supply analysis. The research results show different patterns over time period. The relative ratio on chemical and construction to total market will steadily grow over short term, while applied, environment, electronic and information will rapidly grow This pattern will be stabilized over mid or long term. The additional requirement on technical manpower represents the similar pattern to market growth. The research result implies manpower policy for having high inflow of technical engineer from educational institute and the related industries through the image improvement.