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A Study of Sales Increase and/or Decrease by Campaign Using a Differential Equation Model of the Growth Phenomenon

  • Horinouchi, Kunihito;Takabayashi, Naoki;Yamamoto, Hisashi;Ohba, Masaaki
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2014
  • With society becoming more advanced and complex, the required management engineering makes essential the development of human resources that can propose solutions for problems of new phenomena from a different perspective. As an example of such phenomena, we note a consumer electronics 'Eco-point' system campaign in this study. To mitigate global warming, revitalize the economy, and encourage the adoption of terrestrial digital compatible TVs, the consumer electronics Eco-point system campaign was implemented in May 2009 in Japan. In this study, we note a model which is constant term with exponential curve with notion of the growth phenomenon (Nakagiri and Kurita, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 2002). In our study, we call this model the 'differential equation model of the growth phenomenon.' This model represents a phenomenon with a hierarchical structure for capturing the properties of n species. In this study, we propose a new model which can represent not only the impact of largescale campaigns but also seasonal factors. Accordingly, we understand the phenomenon of fluctuation of sales of some products caused by large-scale campaigns and predict the fluctuation of sales. The final goal of this study is to develop human resources that can propose provision and solution for pre-consumption and reactionary decline in demand by understanding the impact of large-scale campaigns. As the first step of this goal, our objective is to propose a new regression method with different conventional perspective that can describe the fluctuation of sales caused by large-scale campaigns and show the possibility of new management engineering education.

Receptor Model(CMB) and Source Apportionments of VOCs in Seoul Metropolitan Area (수용모델(CMB)을 이용한 수도권 VOCs의 배출원별 기여율 추정)

  • Han, Jin-Seok;Hong, Y.D.;Shin, S.A.;Lee, S.U.;Lee, S.J.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2005
  • Source contribution for VOCs collected in Seoul metropolitan area was conducted using PAMs (Photochemical assessment monitoring system) data and CMB(Chemical Mass Balance) model8.0, in order to estimate spatial and temporal variations of VOCs source contribution in that area, and also to compare with corresponding emission inventory. VOCs data used in model calculation were collected at 6 different sites of PAMs(Seokmori, Guwoldong, Simgokdong, Bulgwangdong, Jeongdong and Yangpyeong) and 22 out of 56 VOCs species were analyzed from June 2002 to march 2003 and used for CMB model estimation. The result showed that vehicle exhaust, coating and energy combustion were important sources of VOCs in Seoul metropolitan area, averaging 32.6%, 25.5% and 25.1%, respectively. In this study as well as other references, it was revealed that vehicle exhaust is the main contributor of urban area VOCs, but there is remarkable contrast between emission inventory and model estimation. Vehicle exhaust portion is seriously underestimated while coating is usually overestimated in emission estimates, compared to CMB results. Therefore, it is considered to assert and confirm the uncertainty of emission estimates and clarify the distinction between two other source apportionment methods.

Clinicopathologic Predictors and Impact of Distant Metastasis from Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (두경부 전양낭성암종에서 원격전이와 관련된 임상적, 병리학적 예측 인자)

  • Kim Jeong-Whun;Kim Kwang-Hyun;Kwon Taek-Kyun;Lee Sang-Joon;Sung Myung-Whun
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.157-162
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    • 2002
  • Background and Objectives: Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a unique tumor characterized by frequent and delayed distant metastasis (DM) with uncommon regional lymph node metastasis. We evaluated the factors affecting DM of ACC and survival after appearance of DM. Materials and Methods: Medical records, radiographs and pathologic slides were reviewed for 94 patients from 1979 through 2001. Results: DM of ACC occurred in 46 patients, and developed more frequently in patients with tumors of the solid histologic subtype than in patients with tubular or cribriform subtypes. DM occurred less frequently in the sinonasal tract, and development of DM was not affected by tumor stage. Disease-specific 5- and 10-year survival rates were 88% and 72% for patients without DM, respectively and 76% and 48% for those with DM(p=0.02). Regarding the site of DM and its impact on outcomes, 30 patients had lung metastasis alone, 5 patients bone metastasis alone and 6 patients developed both lung and bone metastasis. Median survivals after appearance of DM among patients with isolated lung metastases and those with bone metastases with or without lung involvement were 54 and 21 months, respectively (p=0.04). Conclusions: Development of DM in ACC is predicted by solid histologic subtype, and major salivary gland or oral/pharyngeal rather than sinonasal primary site. Those patients with bone involvement with our without lung metastases had worse outcomes than those with pulmonary metastasis only.

A Study on Attitudinal Constructs Influencing on Olympic Sponsorship (올림픽마케팅에서의 스폰서십 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Chun Myung-Hwan;Kim Woo-Hui
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.9
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    • pp.139-163
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    • 2002
  • While the corporate practice of sponsoring major events has existed since the turn of the century, it has only recently become one of the fastest growing areas of advertising and promotion. Despite its long history and recent growth, however, event sponsorship has yet to receive the same kinds of rigorous theoretical and methodological attention that marketing researchers have devoted to other areas of advertising and promotion. Also, the recent Olympic Games in Sydney serve as excellent showcase of the sponsorship phenomenon. On the hand it becomes very clear that an event of such magnitude cannot take place without the commercial support of the sponsors. At the same time, there is a growing concern that the Olympic Games are losing their spirit and are over-commercialized because of the excessive sponsorship-linked marketing activities. At the centre of the debate is the impact and the reaction of the consumers to the growing use of sponsorship to stage major events. While the Olympic Games might be an extreme example of the growth and impact of sponsorship, the proliferation of the phenomenon is widespread across other sports events as well as other cultural and community based events. But a comprehensive model of sponsorship is not currently available in the literature. This research is the aim of the current research to investigate consumer attitude constructs towards sponsorship such as sport involvement, attitude towards the event, attitude towards commercialization. The results still have potentially significant applied and theoretical implication. First, This investigation is the first known effort, grounded in consumer behavior theory, to model antecedent variables believed to influence consumer response to event sponsorship in Korea. Second, these findings are in line with previous research, as sports involvement attitude towards the event, and attitude towards commercialization are found to be significant influences on respondents' ability, motivation and opportunity to process sponsorship information, as well as directly and indirectly impacting emotional response.

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IE-SASW Method for Nondestructive Testing of Geotechnical Concrete Structure : I. Numerical Studies (콘크리트 지반구조물의 비파괴검사를 위한 충격반향-표면파병행기법 : I. 수치해석적 연구)

  • 김동수;서원석;이광명
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.257-270
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    • 2002
  • The Impact-Echo(IE) method has been used to evaluate the integrity of concrete structures. In this method, the P-wave velocity of concrete is a crucial parameter in determining the thickness of concrete lining, the location of cracks or other defects. In many field applications of the IE method, the P-wave velocity is obtained by testing the core or the portion of a structure where the exact thickness is known. Occasionally, however, the core can not be obtained in specific structures and the P-wave velocity determined from core testing may not be a representative value of the structure. This study introduces an IE-SASW method that may determine the P-wave velocity on a surface of each testing area using the Spectral Analysis of Surface Wave (SASW) method. Results obtained from numerical studies are presented in this paper (Part I), and results obtained from experimental studies are presented in the companion paper (Part II). In this paper, numerical analyses using ABAQUS were carried out to investigate the effectiveness and the limitations of the IE-SASW method.

Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Energy Conservation Programs Using Avoided Operating Cost Calculation (운전회피비용 계산을 이용한 효율향상 프로그램의 비용효과 분석)

  • 김회철;이기송;박종배;신중린;신점구
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.317-323
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposed the calculation method of the generation operating avoided cost to cost-effectiveness evaluation of energy conservation programs that compounded the Proxy Plant Method and Load Decrement Method. This method introduced an operating index of the Energy Efficiency Demand-Side Management (EEDSM) resources based on the end-user's behaviors on the electricity power usage. The operation index is applied to calculate the hourly operating capacity of diffused high-efficiency appliances. And the operating capacity on the peak load hours for reference load is computed through the reduction of the peak load that contributes to that hour. Also, the proposed method evaluated the effect of EEDSM resources. The IEEE-RTS is adopted as a sample system to analyze impacts of an EEDSM. This paper, we have analyzed the effect of EEDSM upon the changes in the generation of generator, generation cost and the system marginal price (SMP). This method can be used to evaluate the impact of the diffused DSM resource and to estimate the impact in short-term EEDSM program. Further, result of the calculation can be utilized to pabulum for effect analysis of EEDSM resources.

A Study on Chemical Composition and Formation of Dewfall in Miryang Area (밀양지역 이슬의 생성과 화학적 조성에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Byung-Il;Hwang, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2006
  • In order to understand chemical characteristics and formation of dewfall in Miryang area, we analysed monthly distribution of dewfall, and investigated its chemical composition of dewfall. The modified teflon plate ($1m{\times}1m$) was used qualitatively to collect water soluble components at Miryang weather station from August 2002 to April 2003. Dewfall amount during the sampling periods (37 day) collected 5.28 mm. The behaviors of water soluble ions in dewfall showed the highest concentration ($555.8{\mu}eq/l$ for $Cl^-$, $338.6{\mu}eq/l$ for ${NO_3}^-$, $1118.2{\mu}eq/l$ for ${SO_4}^{2-}$, $262.7{\mu}eq/l$ for ${NH_4}^+$, $1341.0{\mu}eq/l$ for ${Ca_2}^+$, $177.8{\mu}eq/l$ for ${Mg_2}^+$, and $325.5{\mu}eq/l$ for $Na^+$) during the April, the lowest concentration ($243.6{\mu}eq/l$ for ${SO_4}^{2-}$, $39.3{\mu}eq/l$ for ${NH_4}^+$ and $456.2{\mu}eq/l$ for ${Ca_2}^+$) during the September. Monthly equivalent ratio of [${SO_4}^{2-}$]/[${NO_3}^-$] showed the highest value (6.45) during the March, the lowest value (1.86) during the September, and the mean value was 2.70.

An Analysis of Changing River Sections Using GIS Spatial Analysis - Nonsan River - (공간분석기법을 이용한 하천단면 변화분석 - 논산천을 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Jae-Yil;Lee, Gyu-Sung;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.91-97
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    • 2010
  • The systematic data management system in the area of river flow analysis has not yet constructed, even though the need is evident due to the complicated process of tremendous input/output data in the modeling study and the importance of visualization of spatial flow variation. The objectives of this study are to suggest the method for analysis of changing river sections affecting ecological habitat characteristics. The effects of ecological habitat characteristics are assessed with respect to changing river sections. A GIS special analysis is created representing in the past section of Nonsan-river using historical data. Topographic surfaces are subject to erosional and depositional forces that a specific set of surface characteristics unique to elevation data. GIS spatial analyst is used to generate surface grids from historical point data. Using the GIS spatial analyst can be constructed sections for anywhere of river. The change of depth between 1979 and 1988, the left bank elevations of a river are increased about 1.5m. But the right bank elevations of a river are decreased about 2.3m caused by erosion. In addition, the change of spatial between 1988 and 2002, the regions of a river from upper stream to midstream are decreased the elevation. But the downstream regions are increased the elevation. These changes are analyzed in GIS program to assess methods for affecting ecological habitat.

The Effects of Patents on Firm Value;Venture vs. non-Venture (특허활동이 경영성과에 미치는 영향;벤처기업 대 일반기업)

  • Lee, Ki-Hwan;Yoon, Byung-Seop
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.77-104
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    • 2006
  • Utilizing the patent application data between 1997 and 2002, this study focuses on analysing the impact of patents on firm value. Especially we attempt to examine the difference of patents between venture firms and general firms. This paper first shows that the number of the patent applications of general firms listed on the securities market are more than those of venture firms listed on KOSDAQ. It is thought that this result is originated from facts that the size of firms of the securities market is usually bigger than the firms of KOSDAQ and that these large firms could manage R&D more efficiently. Second, this paper reports that there is no difference in the ratio of patent maintenance between venture firms and general firms. Both venture firms and non-venture firms would do their best to keep their patents after patent regisration. Third, in the regression of patent index and firm growth, we find that the excellence of patent and the number of patents per employee would have an impact on the growth of firms. Fourth, the regression of patent index and profitability shows that the excellence and the number of patents per employee might have an effect on the profitability of firms.

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Assessing Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Components of Yongdam Dam Watershed Using RCP Emission Scenarios and SWAT Model (RCP 배출 시나리오와 SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Park, Jong-Yoom;Jung, Hyuk;Jang, Cheol-Hee;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2014
  • This study was to evaluate the potential climate change impact on watershed hydrological components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow, and streamflow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For Yongdam dam watershed (930 $km^2$), the SWAT model was calibrated for five years (2002-2006) and validated for three years (2004-2006) using daily streamflow data at three locations and daily soil moisture data at five locations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were 0.43-0.67 and 0.48-0.70 for streamflow, and 0.16-0.65 and 0.27-0.76 for soil moisture, respectively. For future evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 30 years (1982-2011, baseline period) of ground weather data. The HadGEM3-RA 2080s (2060-2099) temperature and precipitation showed increase of $+4.7^{\circ}C$ and +22.5 %, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, surface runoff, baseflow, and streamflow showed changes of +11.8 %, +36.8 %, +20.5 %, and +29.2 %, respectively. Overall, the future hydrologic results by RCP emission scenarios showed increase patterns due to the overall increase of future temperature and precipitation.