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A Study of Air Freight Forecasting Using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모델을 이용한 항공운임예측에 관한 연구)

  • Suh, Sang-Sok;Park, Jong-Woo;Song, Gwangsuk;Cho, Seung-Gyun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

The Aviation Cooperation between the Koreas Preparing for the Reunification

  • Shin, Dong-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.8
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 1996
  • 최근 남북관계는 대북 쌀 지원 문제와 관련한 북한 측의 태도와 이후의 무장공비 남파 등으로 악화되어 있다. 북한 측을 대화창구로 유도하고 남북 경협 등을 통하여 남북한 관계를 개선하려는 우리측의 노력은 이무런 성과를 거두고 있지 못한 것 같다. 남북한 항공판계의 진전도 전반적인 남북관계에서만이 고려가 가능한 실정으로 있다. 최근 언론매체를 통하여 북한당국이 미국 항공사(델타, 노스웨스트)의 평양비행정보구역 통과 우리 영공으로의 비행을 허가하였으며, 이에 대하여 우리측은 우선 남북한 관제당국간 관제협정이 체결되고, 동 항로를 이용한 비행은 우리 항공사를 포함한 모든 항공사에 비차별적으로 적용되어야 하는 것을 전제로 운항을 허가할 수 있음을 밝혔다. 이것은 북한당국이 '95년 12월에 자국영공을 전세계에 개방하겠다고 밝힌 후 진전된 일련의 사태 발전의 일부분이다. 북한은 '95.2월 초 국제영공통과 업무협정에 가입하였다. 외국항공기에 의한 북한의 영공통과비행은 이 협정에 가입하였다고 자동적으로 허가되는 것은 아니며 사안별로 허가되어야 한다는 점에 유의할 필요가 있다. 북한이 이러한 영공개방의사를 밝힌 것은 오랫동안 진행되어 왔던 일본/중국간 직선항로 문제에 있어서, 한국과 중국간의 합의로 서울/북경간에 직선항로를 설정하게 됨으로써 사실상 문제가 해결되었고, 따라서 향후 외국항공사가 한반도의 남쪽만을 통과하여 동경/북경간을 운항하게되는 가능성에 대하여 당혹감을 가지고 있기 때문이라고 보여진다. 한편 일본/중국간 직선항로 설정문제는 이것이 운항시간과 연료를 절약하게 된다는 점에서 IATA, ICAO 등 국제기구에 의하여 1980년대 초반부터 추구되어져 왔다. 그러나 남북간의 대립 등 복잡한 한반도 정세, 남북한을 포함한 일본, 중국 등 이해관계 당사국의 ICAO에 대한 형식적이고 외교적인 태도 등으로 인하여 아무런 해결책없이 십수년이 지나가게 되었다. 심지어 ICAO는 '88년 휴전선을 통과하는 단일항로안까지 제시하였는 바 이것은 한반도 정세에 대한 뚜렷한 이해가 없었던 때문이라고 생각된다. '95.9.17. "남복간 화해, 불가침, 교류 및 협력에 관한 합의서"가 서명되었다. 동 합의서에서는 남북간 군사적 대치 상태가 해소되는 상황에 따라 김포 및 순안비행장간 직항로를 개설한다고 되어있다. 현재까지 항공부문에서는 이렇다할 교류, 협력 실적은 없었으나 향후 남북관계의 진전에 따라 이 부문에서의 협력사업은 많다고 생각된다. 우선 위에서 언급한 남북한 및 각국 항공기가 남북의 비행정보구역을 통과 비행할 수 있도록 관제협정을 체결하고 필요할 경우 기술인력을 훈련하는데 상호 협조할 수 있다. 또한 설악산과 금강산을 연결하는 관광코스를 개발하여 항공기를 운항할 수 있다. 다음 남북의 주요 지점간에 전세기를 운항하고, 수요가 성숙할 경우 주요 도시 (남: 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 제주 등, 북: 평양, 신의주, 청진, 원산 등)를 연결하는 정기편을 개설할 수 있을 것이다. 이밖에 항공사간 영업사항에 관한 협력을 기대해 볼 수 있다. 남북간 항공협력은 한반도의 통일을 앞당길 수 있는 좋은 수단으로 작용할 수 있다.

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A Study for Measuring Service Quality in Incheon International Airport Focusing on the Passenger Terminal (인천국제공항 여객터미널 서비스 품질 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Jin;Lee, Jae-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2007
  • Incheon International Airport (IIAC) has been named "best airport worldwide" according to the AETRA Passenger survey Program that was jointly administered by Airports Council International (ACI) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in 2005. This paper identifies eight dimensions underlying the overall service qualify in passenger terminals. These eight elements were found from literature reviews through relevant documents. The research explains the linkage between the overall satisfaction with IIAC and five services that influence that satisfaction. The five services are the following: service quality of passenger terminals, commercial facility services, easy access by transportation, service quality of the airlines, and contributions to the community by IIAC. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) designed by Cook and Kress (CK Model) was used to maximize the efficiency of commercial facility services, easy access by transportation, service qualify of the airlines, and contributions to the community by IIAC because the model best provided practical plans for a more competitive airport. This paper has three significant results. First, it includes research of passenger terminal-oriented service quality. Second, the author researches service qualify focusing on a three-cornered relation among passengers, airline employees, and IIAC. Third, the paper contains research of service quality focusing on IIAC's employees.

An Empirical Assessment of Competency Requirements for Logistics Managers of Freight Forwarding Companies (복합운송주선업 물류관리자의 자격요건에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Hong, Eui
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.147-172
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this research is to identify the competencies required by freight forwarding company logistics managers or supply chain managers. And this research also attempts to show their relative importance and key knowledge areas that require improvement. Using a survey questionnaire, data was collected against forty three logistics and supply chain management skills or competencies, which were then grouped into four categories and analysed. The Analysis revealed that supply chain awareness, ability to make decisions, analytical skill, communication skill, supply chain cost, people skill, and integration of internal or external information flow which belong to logistics planning group are considered the most important competencies for effective and efficient logistics functioning. On the other hand, reverse logistics and IATA regulations from environmental awareness group show little influence on logistics managers for improving their logistics performances. The results have implications for a variety of parties including prospective logisticians, students, teachers and companies considering expanding their business to Chinese market. For example, the results permit companies to employ appropriate logistics managers who are qualified with sufficient skills and competencies suggested in this research. In the case of practitioners, the results provide a benchmark for comparison with their current level of abilities and suggested competencies.

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An Empirical Assessment of Competency Requirements for Logistics Managers in China (중국진출 한국기업 물류관리자의 자격요건에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Eui;Kim, Jin-Su
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.251-274
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    • 2011
  • The aim of this research is to identify the competencies required by logistics managers or supply chain managers in China. And this research also attempts to show their relative importance and key knowledge areas that require improvement. Using a survey questionnaire, data was collected against forty three logistics and supply chain management skills or competencies, which were then grouped into four categories and analysed. The Analysis revealed that supply chain awareness, ability to make decisions, analytical skill, communication skill, supply chain cost, people skill, and integration of internal or external information flow which belong to logistics planning group are considered the most important Competencies for effective and efficient logistics functioning. On the other hand, reverse logistics and IATA regulations from environmental awareness group show little influence on logistics managers for improving their logistics performances. The results have implications for a variety of parties including prospective logisticians, students, teachers and companies considering expanding their business to Chinese market. For example, the results permit companies to employ appropriate logistics managers who are qualified with sufficient skills and competencies suggested in this research. In the case of practitioners, the results provide a benchmark for comparison with their current level of abilities and suggested competencies.

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Aviation Safety Regulation and ICAO's Response to Emerging Issues (항공안전규제와 새로운 이슈에 대한 ICAO의 대응)

  • Shin, Dong-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.207-244
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    • 2015
  • Aviation safety is the stage in which the risk of harm to persons or of property damage is reduced to, and maintained at or below, an acceptable level through a continuing process of hazard identification and risk management. Many accidents and incidents have been taking place since 2014, while there had been relatively safer skies before 2014. International civil aviation community has been exerting great efforts to deal with these emerging issues, thus enhancing and ensuring safety throughout the world over the years. The Preamble of the Chicago Convention emphasizes safety and order of international air transport, and so many Articles in the Convention are related to the safety. Furthermore, most of the Annexes to the Convention are International Standards and Recommended Practices pertaining to the safety. In particular, Annex 19, which was promulgated in Nov. 2013, dealing with safety management system. ICAO, as law-making body, has Air Navigation Commission, Council, Assembly to deliberate and make decisions regarding safety issues. It is also implementing USOAP and USAP to supervise safety functions of member States. After MH 370 disappeared in 2014, ICAO is developing Global Tracking System whereby there should be no loophole in tracking the location of aircraft anywhere in world with the information provided by many stakeholders concerned. MH 17 accident drove ICAO to install web-based repository where information relating to the operation in conflict zones is provided and shared. In addition, ICAO has been initiating various solutions to emerging issues such as ebola outbreak and operation under extreme meteorological conditions. Considering the necessity of protection and sharing of safety data and information to enhance safety level, ICAO is now suggesting enhanced provisions to do so, and getting feedback from member States. It has been observed that ICAO has been approaching issues towards problem-solving from four different dimensions. First regarding time, it analyses past experiences and best practices, and make solutions in short, mid and long terms. Second, from space perspective, ICAO covers States, region and the world as a whole. Third, regarding stakeholders it consults with and hear from as many entities as it could, including airlines, airports, community, consumers, manufacturers, air traffic control centers, air navigation service providers, industry and insurers. Last not but least, in terms of regulatory changes, it identifies best practices, guidance materials and provisions which could become standards and recommended practices.

Legal Relations of the Contract of International Carriage of Goods by Air (국제항공화물운송계약(國際航空貨物運送契約)의 법률관계(法律關係) -화주(貨主)의 권리의무(權利義務)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lee, Kang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.1
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    • pp.193-222
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study is to review the rights and duties of cargo owners, the party to the contract of international carriage of goods by air under the Warsaw Convention System and the IATA conditions. It is generally known that air freight is the most-cost mode of transportation. However, should there be considerations of total distribution cost, the use of air freight leads exporters to be advantageous in physical distribution. The Warsaw Convention System defined and limited the rights and duties of cargo owners and air carriers paticipating in the international carriage of goods, but it does not regulate every aspect of air transportation. Therefore, the unregulated parts are governed by national laws and by individual contracts of carriage. The International Air Transport Association(lATA), a worldwide organization of airlines, has formulated model conditions of contract for the carriage of cargo. These models are not uniformly followed but they serve as a basis for many of the individual standard form of contracts prepared by air carriers. The contract of air carriage of goods is a contract of adhesion, 'the consignor recognizing and accepting the conditions laid down by the carrier'. There are consignors and carriers as the parties to the contract of international carriage of goods. In addition to his basic right, implied in Warsaw Convention Article 18 and 19, to require devery of the goods in good condition and at the date agreed upon, the consignor has the right to dispose the goods in the course of the journey up to the moment when the consignee is entitled to require delivery. If it is impossible to carry out the orders of the consignor, the carrier must so inform him forthwith. The right conferred on the consignor ceases at the moment when that of the consignee begins in accordance with Warsaw Convention Article 13. Nevertheless, if the consignee declines to accept the air waybill or the goods, or if he cannot be communicated with, the consignor resumes his right of disposition. Unless it is otherwise agreed, it is the duty of the carrier to give notice to the consignee as soon as the goods arrive. The consignee is entitled, on arrival of the goods at the place of destination, to require the carrier to hand over to him the air waybill and to deliver the goods to him, on payment of the charges due and on complying with the conditions of carriage set out in the air waybill. The air waybill is supposed to be made out by the consignor. If the carrier makes it out, he is deemed, subject to proof to the contrary, to have done so on behalf of the consignor, whether there is one air waybill or several, each must be made out in three original parts. The first is for the carrier, the second is for the consignee, and the the third is handed to the consignor when the shipment has been accepted. The consignor is responsible for the correctness of the particulars and statement concerning the cargo appearing in the air waybill. Each of the original parts of the air waybill has evidential value and possession of his part is a condition for the exercise by the consignor or consignee of his rights under the contract of carriage. Hague Protocol set forth in Article 9 that nothing in this. Convention prevents the issue of a negotiable air waybill, but Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 deleted this article. All charges applicable to a shipment are payable in cash at the time of acceptance thereof by the carrier in case of a prepaid shipment or at the time of delivery thereof by the carrier in case of a collect shipment. The carrier shall have lien the cargo for unpaid charges and, in the event of non-payment thereof, shall have the right to dispose of the cargo at public or private sale and pay itself out of the proceeds of such sale any and all such amounts. In conclusion, the Warsaw Convention System has the character of ambiguity in various respects, not only in the part of the forms of documents but also in conditions of contract. Accordingly, the following propositions might be considered: (1) If the carrier does not obey the orders of the consignor for the disposition of the goods without proper reasons, he will be liable strictly for any damage which may be caused thereby to the cargo owner. The special agreement and carrier's conditions of carriage which limit unreasonably the consignor's right of disposition of the goods will be nullified. (2) The instrument of the Warsaw Convention System which is not yet in force(Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4) would considerably simplfy the processing and keeping of computerized records of the carriage. Until this instrument enters into force, the airlines will be faced with practical problems preventing them to substitute computerized data processing techniques for the formal issuance of the documents. Accordingly, Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 should become effective as soon as posisble. From a practical point of view in the international trade, the issuance of negotiable air waybill should be permitted for the security of the bank.

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The Duty and Liability of the Carrier in Relation to Cargo Delivery in the International Air Transport of Cargo (국제항공화물운송에 있어서 운송인의 화물인도 의무와 책임)

  • Lee, Kang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.71-96
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    • 2006
  • This paper intends to describe the carrier's duty for the delivery of international air cargo and the carrier's liability for the illegal delivery of cargo under the Montreal Convention, lATA Conditions of Carriage for Cargo and judicial precedents. Under the Article 13 of Montreal Convention, the consignee is entitled, on arrival of the cargo at the place of destination, to require the carrier to deliver the cargo to it, on payment of the charge due and on complying with the conditions of carriage. And unless it is otherwise agreed, it is the duty of the carrier to give notice to the consignee as soon as the cargo arrives. Under the Article 18 of Montreal Convention, the carrier is liable for damage sustained in the event of the destruction or less of or damage to, cargo upon condition only that the event which caused the damage so sustained took place during the carriage by air. And the carriage by air comprises by the period during which the cargo is in the carriage of the carrier. Under the Article 11 of lATA Conditions of Carriage for Cargo, carrier is liable to shipper, consignee of any other person for damage sustained in the event of destruction of loss of, or damage to, or delay in the carriage of cargo only if the occurrence which caused to the damage so sustained took place during the carriage as defined under Article 1. According to the precedent of Korean Supreme Court sentenced on 22 July 2004, the freight forwarder as carrier was not liable for the illegal delivery of cargo to the notify party (actual importer) on the airway bill by the bonded warehouse operator because the freight forwarder did not designate the bonded warehouse and did not hold the position of employer to the bonded warehouse operator. In conclusion, the carrier or freight forwarder should pay always attention the movement and condition of the cargo not to be liable for the illegal delivery of cargo.

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The Limitation of Air Carriers' Cargo and Baggage Liability in International Aviation Law: With Reference to the U.S. Courts' Decisions (국제항공법상 화물.수하물에 대한 운송인의 책임상한제도 - 미국의 판례 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Joon-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-133
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    • 2007
  • The legal labyrinth through which we have just walked is one in which even a highly proficient lawyer could easily become lost. Warsaw Convention's original objective of uniformity of private international aviation liability law has been eroded as the world community ha attempted again to address perceived problems. Efforts to create simplicity and certainty of recovery actually may have created less of both. In any particular case, the issue of which international convention, intercarrier agreement or national law to apply will likely be inconsistent with other decisions. The law has evolved faster for some nations, and slower for others. Under the Warsaw Convention of 1929, strict liability is imposed on the air carrier for damage, loss, or destruction of cargo, luggage, or goods sustained either: (1) during carriage in air, which is comprised of the period during which cargo is 'in charge of the carrier (a) within an aerodrome, (b) on board the aircraft, or (c) in any place if the aircraft lands outside an aerodrome; or (2) as a result of delay. By 2007, 151 nations had ratified the original Warsaw Convention, 136 nations had ratified the Hague Protocol, 84 had ratified the Guadalajara Protocol, and 53 nations had ratified Montreal Protocol No.4, all of which have entered into force. In November 2003, the Montreal Convention of 1999 entered into force. Several airlines have embraced the Montreal Agreement or the IATA Intercarrier Agreements. Only seven nations had ratified the moribund Guatemala City Protocol. Meanwhile, the highly influential U.S. Second Circuit has rendered an opinion that no treaty on the subject was in force at all unless both affected nations had ratified the identical convention, leaving some cases to fall between the cracks into the arena of common law. Moreover, in the United States, a surface transportation movement prior or subsequent to the air movement may, depending upon the facts, be subject to Warsaw, or to common law. At present, International private air law regime can be described as a "situation of utter chaos" in which "even legal advisers and judges are confused." The net result of this barnacle-like layering of international and domestic rules, standards, agreements, and criteria in the elimination of legal simplicity and the substitution in its stead of complexity and commercial uncertainty, which manifestly can not inure to the efficient and economical flow of world trade. All this makes a strong case for universal ratification of the Montreal Convention, which will supersede the Warsaw Convention and its various reformulations. Now that the Montreal Convention has entered into force, the insurance community may press the airlines to embrace it, which in turn may encourage the world's governments to ratify it. Under the Montreal Convention, the common law defence is available to the carrier even when it was not the sole cause of the loss or damage, again making way for the application of comparative fault principle. Hopefully, the recent entry into force of the Montreal Convention of 1999 will re-establish the international legal uniformity the Warsaw Convention of 1929 sought to achieve, though far a transitional period at least, the courts of different nations will be applying different legal regimes.

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Liability of the Compensation for Damage Caused by the International Passenger's Carrier by Air in Montreal Convention (몬트리올조약에 있어 국제항공여객운송인의 손해배상책임)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.18
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    • pp.9-39
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    • 2003
  • The rule of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 are well known and still being all over the world. The Warsaw Convention is undoubtedly the most widely accepted private international air law treaty with some 140 countries. In the international legal system for air transportation, the Warsaw Convention has played a major role for more than half century, and has been revised many times in consideration of the rapid developments of air high technology, changes of social and economic circumstances, need for the protection of passengers. Some amendments became effective, but others are still not effective. As a result, the whole international legal system for air transportation is at past so complicated and tangled. However, the 'Warsaw system' consists of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 the Guadalajara Convention of 1961, a supplementary convention, and the following six protocols: (1) the Hague Protocol of 1955, (2) the Guatemala Protocol of 1971, (3) the Montreal Additional Protocols, No.1, (4) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.2, (5) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and (6) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.4. of 1975. As a fundamental principle of the air carrier's liability in the international convention and protocols, for instance in the Warsaw Convention and the Hague Protocol, the principle of limited liability and a presumed fault system has been adopted. Subsequently, the Montreal Inter-carrier Agreement of 1966, the Guatemala City Protocol, the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and the Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 of 1975 maintained the limited liability, but substituted the presumed liability system by an absolute liability, that is, strict liability system. The Warsaw System, which sets relatively low compensation limits for victims of aircraft accidents and regulates the limited liability for death and injury of air passengers, had become increasingly outdated. Japanese Airlines and Inter-carrier Agreement of International Air Transport Association in 1995 has been adopted the unlimited liability of air carrier in international flight. The IATA Inter-Carrier Agreement, in which airlines in international air transportation agree to waive the limit of damages, was long and hard in coming, but it was remarkable achievement given the political and economic realities of the world. IATA deserves enormous credit for bringing it about. The Warsaw System is controversial and questionable. In order to find rational solution to disputes between nations which adopted differing liability systems in international air transportation, we need to reform the liability of air carriers the 'Warsaw system' and fundamentally, to unify the liability system among the nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) will therefore reinforce its efforts to further promote a legal environment that adequately reflects the public interest and the needs of the parties involved. The ICAO Study Group met in April, 1998, together with the Drafting Committee. The time between the "Special Group on the Modernization and Consolidation of the 'Warsaw system'(SGMW)" and the Diplomatic Conference must be actively utilized to arrange for profound studies of the outstanding issues and for wide international consultations with a view to narrowing the scope of differences and preparing for a global international consensus. From 11 to 28 May 1999 the ICAO Headquarters at Montreal hosted a Diplomatic Conference convened to consider, with a view to adoption, a draft Convention intended to modernize and to integrate replace the instruments of the Warsaw system. The Council of ICAO convened this Conference under the Procedure for the Adoption of International Conventions. Some 525 participants from 121 Contracting States of ICAO attended, one non-contracting State, 11 observer delegations from international organizations, a total of 544 registered participants took part in the historic three-week conference which began on 10 May. The Conference was a success since it adopted a new Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air. The 1999 Montreal Convention, created and signed by representatives of 52 countries at an international conference convened by ICAO at Montreal on May 28, 1999, came into effect on November 4, 2003. Representatives of 30 countries have now formally ratified the Convention under their respective national procedures and ratification of the United States, which was the 30th country to ratify, took place on September 5, 2003. Under Article 53.6 of the Montreal Convention, it enters into force on the 60th day following the deposit of the 30th instrument of ratification or acceptation. The United States' ratification was deposited with ICAO on September 5, 2003. The ICAO have succeeded in modernizing and consolidating a 70-year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument that will provide, for years to come, an adequate level of compensation for those involved in international aircraft accidents. An international diplomatic conference on air law by ICAO of 1999 succeeded in adopting a new regime for air carrier liability, replacing the Warsaw Convention and five other related legal instruments with a single convention that provided for unlimited liability in relation to passengers. Victims of international air accidents and their families will be better protected and compensated under the new Montreal Convention, which modernizes and consolidates a seventy-five year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument. A major feature of the new legal instrument is the concept of unlimited liability. Whereas the Warsaw Convention set a limit of 125,000 Gold Francs (approximately US$ 8,300) in case of death or injury to passengers, the Montreal Convention introduces a two-tier system. The first tier includes strict liability up to l00,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR: approximately US$ 135,000), irrespective of a carrier's fault. The second tier is based on presumption of fault of a carrier and has no limit of liability. The 1999 Montreal Convention also includes the following main elements; 1. In cases of aircraft accidents, air carriers are called upon to provide advance payments, without delay, to assist entitled persons in meeting immediate economic needs; the amount of this initial payment will be subject to national law and will be deductable from the final settlement; 2. Air carriers must submit proof of insurance, thereby ensuring the availability of financial resources in cases of automatic payments or litigation; 3. The legal action for damages resulting from the death or injury of a passenger may be filed in the country where, at the time of the accident, the passenger had his or her principal and permanent residence, subject to certain conditions. The new Montreal Convention of 1999 included the 5th jurisdiction - the place of residence of the claimant. The acceptance of the 5th jurisdiction is a diplomatic victory for the US and it can be realistically expected that claimants' lawyers will use every opportunity to file the claim in the US jurisdiction - it brings advantages in the liberal system of discovery, much wider scope of compensable non-economic damages than anywhere else in the world and the jury system prone to very generous awards. 4. The facilitation in the recovery of damages without the need for lengthy litigation, and simplification and modernization of documentation related to passengers. In developing this new Montreal Convention, we were able to reach a delicate balance between the needs and interests of all partners in international civil aviation, States, the travelling public, air carriers and the transport industry. Unlike the Warsaw Convention, the threshold of l00,000 SDR specified by the Montreal Convention, as well as remaining liability limits in relation to air passengers and delay, are subject to periodic review and may be revised once every five years. The primary aim of unification of private law as well as the new Montreal Convention is not only to remove or to minimize the conflict of laws but also to avoid conflict of jurisdictions. In order to find a rational solution to disputes between nations which have adopted differing liability systems in international air transport, we need fundamentally to reform their countries's domestic air law based on the new Montreal Convention. It is a desirable and necessary for us to ratify rapidly the new Montreal Convention by the contracting states of lCAO including the Republic of Korea. According to the Korean and Japanese ideas, airlines should not only pay compensation to passengers immediately after the accident, but also the so-called 'condolence' money to the next of kin. Condolence money is a gift to help a dead person's spirit in the hereafter : it is given on account of the grief and sorrow suffered by the next of kin, and it has risen considerably over the years. The total amount of the Korean and Japanese claims in the case of death is calculated on the basis of the loss of earned income, funeral expenses and material demage (baggage etc.), plus condolence money. The economic and social change will be occurred continuously after conclusion of the new Montreal Convention. In addition, the real value of life and human right will be enhanced substantially. The amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident has increased in dollar amount as well as in volume. All air carrier's liability should extend to loss of expectation of leisure activities, as well as to damage to property, and mental and physical injuries. When victims are not satisfied with the amount of the compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident for which an airline corporation is liable under the current liability system. I also would like to propose my opinion that it is reasonable and necessary for us to interpret broadly the meaning of the bodily injury on Article 17 of the new Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence. Furthermore, Korea and Japan has not existed the Air Transport Act regulated the civil liability of air carrier such as Air Transport Act (Luftverkehrsgestz) in Germany. It is necessary for us to enact "the Korean Air Transport Contract Act (provisional title)" in order to regulate the civil liability of air carrier including the protection of the victims and injured persons caused by aircraft accident.

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