• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hypothetical Model

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Prediction of Evacuation Time for Emergency Planning Zone of Uljin Nuclear Site (울진원전 방사선비상계획구역에 대한 소개시간 예측)

  • Jeon, In-Young;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2002
  • The time for evacuation of residents in emergency planning zone(EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they ate residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model fan appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data. satisfying the purpose of this study.

A Study on the Development of GIS Based Mitigation Scenario Support System Using QUAL2E Model for TMDL (TMDL 지원을 위한 QUAL2E 모델을 이용한 GIS기반의 삭감시나리오 작성 지원시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chol-Young;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Lee, Hyuk;Ryu, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 2012
  • This study was mainly focused on the development of GIS based decision support system to easily make mitigation scenarios and to conveniently simulate water quality for TMDL. The study area was the 31km section of upper Sapgyo stream in Geum river basin, and QUAL2E model was adopted. GIS DB was built through the collection of the data which includes point/non-point source attributes and various thematic maps. The amounts of discharged loads of BOD, T-N and T-P from unit watershed were estimated respectively. Finally, the system, which can operate water quality simulation through simply modifying their values, was developed. The hypothetical three mitigation scenarios were applied, thereby the most efficient mitigation scenario could be chosen by comparison of the results based on GIS. Therefore, it is expected that the developed system can facilitate the decision makers to select the best alternative through the analysis of the available BMPs. Also, it can be used to develop new scenarios using different methods and algorithms. In the future, more study need to be made to enhance its applicability in the perspective of developing mitigation scenarios through the management of individual pollutant sources and extending study areas.

Scenario-based Vulnerability Assessment of Hydroelectric Power Plant (시나리오 기반 수력플랜트 설비의 취약성 평가)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae Young;Jung, Woo Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the importance of eco-friendly power generation facility using renewable energy has newly appeared. Hydropower plant is a very important source of electricity generation and supply which is very important to secure safety because it is commonly connected with multi facility and operated on a large scale. In this study, a scenario-based analysis method was suggested to assess vulnerability of a penstock system caused by water hammer commonly occurred in the operation of hydropower plants. A hypothetical hydropower plant was used to demonstrate the applicability of a transient analysis model. In order to verify reliability of the model, the prediction of pressure behaviors were compared with the results of commercial model (SIMSEN) and measured data, then a real hydroelectric power plant was applied to develop all potential water hammer scenarios during the actual operation. The scenario-based simulation and vulnerability assessment for water hammer in the penstock system were performed with internal and external load conditions. The simulation results indicated that the vulnerability of a penstock system was varied with the operating conditions of hydropower facilities and significantly affected by load combination consisting of different load scenarios. The proposed numerical method could be an useful tool for the vulnerabilityty assessment of the hydropower plants due to water hammer.

The Structural Relationship among Personality, Negative Emotion, Motivation, Career Maturity on Mathematical Academic Achievement of Elementary School Students (초등학생의 수학 학업성취도에 영향을 주는 성격, 부정적 정서, 동기특성, 진로 성숙도의 구조적 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Jung Hoon;Lee, Moonsoo
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.279-295
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to present implications for mathematics education by identifying the structural relationship among personality, negative emotion, motivation, and career maturity that affects elementary school student's mathematical academic achievement. The participants conveniently sampled 179 students, from 4th to 6th graders enrolled in the same elementary school, and data on their psychological variables were collected in the form of secondary data. The hypothetical structural equation model established based on prior studies was verified with a two-stage approach based on the collected data. It was confirmed that construct validity and construct reliability were secured through assessing the measurement model. In addition, as a result of analyzing the path coefficient of the final structural equation model, five paths were found to be significant: 'personality→motivation', 'personality→career maturity', 'negative emotion→motivation', and 'negative motivation→mathematical academic achievement'. In particular, the path of 'negative emotion→negative motivation→mathematics academic achievement' that can be confirmed through the results needs to moderate negative emotions to improve mathematical academic achievement, and at this time, negative motivation should be considered together.

Assessment of stream water quality and pollutant discharge loads affected by recycled irrigation in an agricultural watershed using HSPF and a multi-reservoir model (HSPF와 다중 저류지 모형을 이용한 농업지역 순환관개에 의한 하천 수질 및 배출부하 영향 분석)

  • Kyoung-Seok Lee;Dong Hoon Lee;Youngmi Ahn;Joo-Hyon Kang
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.297-305
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    • 2023
  • The recycled irrigation is a type of irrigation that uses downstream water to fulfill irrigation demand in the upstream agricultural areas; the used irrigation water returns back to the downstream. The recycled irrigation is advantageous for securing irrigation water for plant growth, but the returned water typically contains high levels of nutrients due to excess nutrients inputs during the agricultural activities, potentially deteriorating stream water quality. Therefore, quantitative assessment on the effect of the recycled irrigation on the stream water quality is required to establish strategies for effective irrigation water supply and water quality management. For this purpose, a watershed model is generally used; however no functions to simulate the effects of the recycled irrigation are provided in the existing watershed models. In this study, we used multi-reservoir model coupled with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to estimate the effect of the recycled irrigation on the stream water quality. The study area was the Gwangok stream watershed, a subwatershed of Gyeseong stream watershed in Changnyeong county, Gyeongsangnam-do. The HSPF model was built, calibrated, and used to produce time series data of flow and water quality, which were used as hypothetical observation data to calibrate the multi-reservoir model. The calibrated multi-reservoir model was used for simulating the recycled irrigation. In the multi-reservoir model, the Gwangok watershed consisted of two subsystems, irrigation and the Gwangok stream, and the reactions (plant uptake, adsorption, desorption, and decay) within each subsystem, and fluxes of water and materials between the subsystems, were modeled. Using the developed model, three scenarios with different combinations of the operating conditions of the recycled irrigation were evaluated for their effects on the stream water quality.

A Study on the Technical and Administrative Innovation of Library Organization in the Perspective of the Contingency Theory (도서관조직의 기술혁신 및 행정혁신에 관한 조직상황론적 연구)

  • Hong Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.25
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    • pp.343-388
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    • 1993
  • The ability of any organization to innovate itself in a rapid change of environment means the existence of the organization. Innovative activity is achieved in different ways according to the objectives of organization. the characteristics of external environmental factors. and various attributes in organization. In the present study. all the existing approaches to the innovative nature of organization were synthetically compared to each other and evaluated: then. for a more rational approach. a research model was built and suggested by establishing the inclusive variables of the innovative nature of library organization and categorizing the types of such nature. Additionally. an empirical. analytical study on such a model was done. That is. paying regard to the fact that innovation has basically a close relation with the circumstantial factors of organization. synthetic, circumstantial relations were clarified. considering the external environmental factors and internal characteristics of organization. In the study. the innovation of library organization was seen in two parts i.e .. the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation. Regarding the types of innovative implementation. according to the feasible degree of innovation, four types such as a stationary type. technic-oriented type, organization-oriented type. and technical-socio systematic type were classified. There were nine independent variables-i.e., the scale of organization. available resources of the organization, formalization, differentiation, specialization. decentralization, recognizant degree of the technical attribute. degree of response to the change of technical environment, and professional activities. There were three subordinate variables - i.e., technical innovation, administrative innovation. and the performance of organization. Through establishment of such variables, the factors which might influence the innovation of library organization were understood, and with the types of the innovative implementation of library organization being classified according to the feasible degree of innovation. the characteristics of library organization were reviewed in the light of each type. Also. the performance of library organization according to the types of the innovative implementation of library organization was analyzed. and the relations between the types of innovative implementation according to circumstantial variables and the performance of library organization were clarified. In order to clarify the adequacy of the research model in the methodology of empirical study, data were collected from 72 university libraries and 38 special libraries. and for a hypothetical test of the research model. an analysis of correlations, a stepwise regression analysis. and One Way ANOVA were utilized. The following are the major results or findings from the study 1) It appeared there is a trend that the bigger the scale of organization and available resources are, the more active the professional activity of the managerial class is, and the higher the recognizant degree of technical environment (recognizant degree of technical attributes and the degree of response t9 the change of technical environment) is, the higher the feasible degree of innovation becomes. 2) It appeared that among the variables influencing the feasible degree of technical innovation, the order from the variable influencing most was first, the recognizant degree of technical innovation: second, the available resources of organization: and third, professional activity. Regarding the variables influencing the feasible degree of administrative innovation from the most influential variable, it appeared they were the available resources of organization, the differentiation of organization. and the degree of response to the change of technical environment. 3) It appeared that the higher the educational level of the managerial class is, the more active the professional activity becomes. It seemed there is a trend that the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level(three years to six years of experience) was more active in research activity than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than ten years). Also, it appeared there is a trend that the lower the age of library managers is, the higher the recognizant degree of technical attributes becomes. and the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at the middle level (three years to six years of experience) recognized more affirmatively the technical aspect than the group of library managers whose experience as a librarian was at a higher level(more than 10 years). Also, it appeared that, when the activity of the professional association and research activity are active, the recognizant degree of technology becomes higher, and as a result. it influences the innovative nature of organization(the feasible degree of technical innovation and the feasible degree of administrative innovation). 4) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the characteristics of library organization according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. it was indicated there is a trend that the larger the available resources of library organization, the higher the organic nature of organization such as differentiation. decentralization, etc., and the higher the level of the operation of system development, the more the type of the innovative implementation of library organization becomes the technical-socio systematic type which is higher both in the practical degrees of technical innovation and administrative innovation. 5) As a result of the comparison and analysis of the relations between the types of innovative implementation and the performance of organization, it appeared that the order from the highest performance of organization is the technical-socio systematic type, then the technic-oriented type, the organization­oriented type, and finally the stationary type which is lowest in such performance. That is, it demonstrated that, since the performance of library organization is highest in the library of the technical-socio systematic type while it is lowest in the library whose practical degrees in both technical innovation and administrative innovation are low, the performance of library organization differs significantly according to the types of innovative implementation of library organization. The present study has extracted the factors influencing innovation, classified systematically the types of innovative implementation, and inferred the synthetical, circumstantial correlations between the types and the performance of organization, and empirically inspected those factors. However, due to the present study's restrictive matters and the limit of the research design, results from the study should be more prudently interpreted. Also, the present study, as an investigative study of the types of innovative implementation, with few preceding studies, requires more complete hypothetical inference based on the results of the present study. In other words, if more systematical studies are given to understanding the relations, it will devote the suggestion and demonstration of a more useful theory.

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Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds in Korean Peninsula using Typhoon Monte Carlo Simulation (태풍 시뮬레이션을 통한 한반도 극한풍속 추정)

  • Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ga Young
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2016
  • The long-span bridges such as Incheon Bridge and Seohae Grand Bridge are located on the coastal region effected frequently by strong wind of typhoons. In order to ensure the wind-resistant performance of the structure, estimation of the proper design wind speed is very important. In this study, stochastic estimation of design wind speed incurred by typhoons is carried out. For this purpose, we first established probability distribution of climatological parameters such as central pressure depth, distance of closest approach, translation speed and heading to build statistical model of typhoons, which are employed in Monte Carlo simulation for hypothetical typhoons. Once a typhoon is generated with statistically justified parameters, wind speeds are estimated along its path using wind field model. Thousands of typhoons are generated and their peak wind speeds are utilized to establish the extreme wind speeds for different return period. The results are compared with design basic wind speeds in Korean Highway Bridge Design Code, showing that the present results agree well with similar studies while the existing code suggests higher design wind speed.

A Philosophical Study on the Generating Process of Declarative Scientific Knowledge - Focused on Inductive, Abductive, and Deductive process (선언적 과학 지식의 생성 과정에 대한 과학철학적 연구 - 귀납적, 귀추적, 연역적 과정을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Yong-Ju;Jeong, Jin-Su;Park, Yun-Bok;Kang, Min-Jeong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.215-228
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    • 2003
  • The present study is to analyze the arguments about the generation of declarative scientific-knowledge in the philosophy of science and invent a structured model of the process of scientific-knowledge generation with the types of the generated scientific-knowledge. The invented model shows that scientific-knowledge generation is a distinctive process with the processes of inductive, abductive, and deductive thinking. Furthermore, inductive process is included with observation, which is consisted of simple observation and operative observation, and rule-discovery which is involved with the processes of commonness discovery, classification, pattern discovery, and hierarchical relationship. Also, abductive process has two components. One component generates question and second component generates hypothesis in which the process consists of representing question situation, identifying experienced situation, identifying causal explicans, and generating hypothetical explicans. Finally, deductive process is involved with logical inventing test method and evaluation criteria, concrete inventing test method and evaluation criteria, evaluating hypothesis, and making conclusion.

Flow Analysis of Urban Combined Sewer by Personal Computer (개인 전산기를 이용한 도시합류관거의 흐름해석)

  • Jun, Byung Ho;Lee, Hyung Gee;Koo, Ja Kong;Shin, Hang Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 1988
  • The management of sewage and rainfall runoff becomes an emerging problem with the growth of urban communities. From the uncontrollable excess intensity or amount of rainfall, the conditions of sewer surcharge or manhole overflow could be generated in the combined sewer network where municipal or industrial wastewaters and rainfall runoff flow. The predictive model far the prevention of property and human life losses from this inundation was studied in this research. In the development of a mathematical flow model for the combined sewer surcharge and overflow, the Preissmann Slot concept and the four-point implicit method of finite difference were utilized. For the usage in personal computer, the overlapping segment method that required less memory storage was adopted. Through the simulation of hypothetical sewer network, the conservation of discharge volume was checked, and the usefulness of the Preissmann Slot was assured from the temporal distribution of discharge and depth along the sewer network. Also the possible field application for the correction of sewer diameters and slopes in the design of sewer network which has no surcharge/overflow condition was suggested.

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A Structural Analysis of Learner on Adult Female Learners' Learning Outcome (성인여성학습자의 학습성과에 대한 구조분석)

  • Jang, Eun Sook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.364-372
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the multi-phrased effects and outcomes of adult female learners who participated in lifelong learning activities, as well as the proposed structural relationships among the five latent variables. Questions established to achieve the purpose of the study are as follow: What effects do the learner's characteristics, lifelong education institutions, learning flow, and learning satisfaction have on the learning come? The participants of the survey numbered 632, but 54 respondents who were unreliable or did not complete their survey were excluded. A total of 578 cases were analyzed for this research. The structural relationships among the five latent variables-learner's characteristics, lifelong education institutions, learning flow and learning satisfaction, and learning outcome of the adult female learners-AMOS 18.0 program were also used for structural analysis. The major findings of this research are as follows. First, the model fitness showed that the hypothetical model provided a reasonable fit to the data ${\chi}^2=224.267$ (df=69, p<.001), RMSEA=.062, TLI=.943, RFI=.920, CFI=.957, IFI=.957, NFI=.939. Second, the learner's characteristics ( =.218, p<.001) and lifelong education institutions ( =.301, p<.001) have a direct effect on the learning outcomes. The learning flow ( =-.149 p=.541) does not have a direct effect on the learning outcome. Learning satisfaction ( =.405 p<.001) have a direct effect on the learning outcome. To put findings above together, in respect to adult female learners' performances, the learning outcomes are influenced directly by the learner characteristics, conditions of the lifelong education institutions, and learning satisfaction, whereas satisfaction indirectly affects the learners' learning outcome.