• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hydrologic Simulation Model

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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Imha-Dam Watershed Hydrologic Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 임하댐 유역의 미래 수문순환 전망)

  • Jang, Sun-Sook;Ahn, So-Ra;Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.156-169
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    • 2015
  • This study was to evaluate the RCP climate change impact on hydrological components in the Imha-Dam watershed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model. The model was calibrated for six year(2002~2007) and validated for six year(2008~2013) using daily observed streamflow data at three watershed stations. The overall simulation results for the total released volume at this point appear reasonable by showing that coefficient of determination($R^2$) were 0.70~0.85 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE) were 0.67-0.82 for streamflow, respectively. For future hydrologic evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Korea Meteorological Administration were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 34 years(1980~2013, baseline period) of weather data. Precipitation and temperature showed increase of 10.8% and 4.9%, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow and streamflow showed changes of +11.2%, +1.9%, +10.0%, +12.1%, +18.2%, and +11.2%, respectively.

Forecasting of Runoff Hydrograph Using Neural Network Algorithms (신경망 알고리즘을 적용한 유출수문곡선의 예측)

  • An, Sang-Jin;Jeon, Gye-Won;Kim, Gwang-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.505-515
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    • 2000
  • THe purpose of this study is to forecast of runoff hydrographs according to rainfall event in a stream. The neural network theory as a hydrologic blackbox model is used to solve hydrological problems. The Back-Propagation(BP) algorithm by the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) techniques and Radial Basis Function(RBF) network in Neural Network(NN) models are used. Runoff hydrograph is forecasted in Bocheongstream basin which is a IHP the representative basin. The possibility of a simulation for runoff hydrographs about unlearned stations is considered. The results show that NN models are performed to effective learning for rainfall-runoff process of hydrologic system which involves a complexity and nonliner relationships. The RBF networks consist of 2 learning steps. The first step is an unsupervised learning in hidden layer and the next step is a supervised learning in output layer. Therefore, the RBF networks could provide rather time saved in the learning step than the BP algorithm. The peak discharge both BP algorithm and RBF network model in the estimation of an unlearned are a is trended to observed values.

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Application of the weather radar-based quantitative precipitation estimations for flood runoff simulation in a dam watershed (기상레이더 강수량 추정 값의 댐 유역 홍수 유출모의 적용)

  • Cho, Younghyun;Noh, Joon Woo;Lee, Eul Rae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.61-61
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    • 2019
  • 우리나라는 대부분이 산지(약 65%)로 구성되어 있어 강우 시 그 공간적 분포의 변동성이 매우 큰 편이며, 특히 전형적인 산지지형인 댐 유역의 경우 고도 변화 등에 기인한 지형특성 등에 따라 강우의 형태 및 패턴과 이에 따른 유출변화가 큰 복잡한 특성을 갖는다. 이로 인해 단순히 지점강우들을 공간보간(평균)한 면적강우를 홍수 유출모의 등에 활용할 경우 그 신뢰도가 매우 낮은 경우가 많아, 수문모의에 있어 레이더에 기반을 둔 공간 분포형 강우 등의 도입 검토가 요구된다. 한편, 최근 기상청에서는 보다 정확한 레이더 강수량 추정 값의 제공을 위해 "레이더-AWS 강우강도(Radar-AWS Rainrates, RAR)" 산출 기술을 지속적으로 개선하고 있으며, 이는 지상 우량계 대비 상당한 정확도를 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 산지지형을 대표하며, 타 댐 유역에 비해 비교적 수문(수위/유량)관측소와 자료가 많은 용담시험유역에 기상레이더 강수량 추정 값(RAR)을 적용해 산지지형 댐 유역에서 강우의 시공간적 변동성과 이에 따른 홍수량의 정확한 분석을 통해 홍수 시 댐 유입량의 정확한 산정 등에 활용할 목적으로 홍수 유출모의를 수행하고자 한다. 모의에는 최근 5년(2014~2018년)동안 발생한 비교적 독립적인 1~2개(연도별)의 홍수사상을 적용하였으며, 모형은 분포형 강우를 적용할 수 있는 비교적 간단한 모형인 HEC-HMS를 활용하였다. HEC-HMS는 주로 집중형 수문모형(Lumped Hydrologic Model)으로 분류되어 레이더 강우와 같은 분포형 자료의 입력을 주로 적용치는 않고 있지만, HEC-GeoHMS와 ModClark 방법을 활용하면 격자단위의 분포형 강우를 적용할 수 있는 형태의 모델 구축이 가능하다. 모의 결과는 기존 유역평균 강우를 적용한 방법과 비교를 통해 그 개선점을 검토하고자 하며, 이를 통하여 산지지역 댐 유역의 홍수특성을 보다 더 정확하게 분석해보고자 한다. 한편, ModClark을 적용한 홍수 유출모의는 단순히 소유역별 도달시간의 격자별 비율을 고려한 홍수추적으로 그 해석상의 한계가 있어, 최근 개발된 하이브리드 수문모형(Hybrid Hydrologic Model, Distributed-Clark) 등도 동일유역에 대해 도입 적용할 계획에 있다.

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An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Nakdong River Environmental Flow (낙동강 유역 환경유량에 대한 기후변화의 영향 분석)

  • Lee, A Yeon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.273-285
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    • 2011
  • This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.

Estimation of Irrigation Return Flow on Agricultural Watershed in Madun Reservoir (마둔저수지 농업유역의 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;Bang, Na-Kyoung;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2021
  • Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not evapotranspirated by direct surface drainage, and which returns to an aquifer. It is important to quantitatively estimate the irrigation return flow of the water cycle in an agricultural watershed. However, the previous studies on irrigation return flow rates are limitations in quantifying the return flow rate by region. Therefore, simulating irrigation return flow by accounting for various water loss rates derived from agricultural practices is necessary while the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of cultivated canal-irrigated watersheds. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural water, especially for the entire agricultural watershed, was estimated using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) module from 2010 to 2019 for the Madun reservoir located in Anseong, Gyeonggi-do. The results of SWMM simulation and water balance analysis estimated irrigation return flow rate. The estimated average annual irrigation return flow ratio during the period from 2010 to 2019 was approximately 55.3% of the annual irrigation amounts of which 35.9% was rapid return flow and 19.4% was delayed return flow. Based on these results, the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approach can provide a valuable approach for estimating the irrigation return flow under different hydrological and water management conditions.

The Development of an Event Rainfall-Runoff Model in Small Watersheds (홍수 사상에 대한 소유역 강우-유출 모형 개발)

  • 이상호;이길성
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 1994
  • The linear reservoir rainfall-runoff system was developed as a rainfall-runoff event simulation model. It was achieved from large modification of runoff function method. There are six parameters in the model. Hydrologic losses consist of some quantity of initial loss and some ratio of rainfall intensity followed by initial loss. The model has analytical routing equations. Hooke and Jeeves algorithm was used to model calibration. Parameters were estimated for flood events from '84 to '89 at Seomyeon and Munmak stream gauges, and the trends of major parameters were analyzed. Using the trends, verifications were performed for '90 flood event. Because antecedent fainfalls affect initial loss, future researches are required on such effects. The estimation method of major parameters should also be studied for real-time forecasting.

Seven-Parameter Log Linear Model for Estimating Constituent Loads in Nakdong River (7변수 대수선형모형을 이용한 낙동강 오염부하량 추정)

  • Lee, A-Yeon;Choi, Dae-Gyu;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1400-1404
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    • 2010
  • In this study the flow duration curves and load duration curves for Nakdong river basin are analyzed. The TANK model is used as s hydrologic simulation model whose parameters are estimated from 8-days intervals flow data measured by Nakdong River Water Environment Laboratory. also in this study a Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator(MVUE) is confirmed that it provides satisfactory load estimate. The Seven-Parameter Log Linear Model for estimating Total Organic Carbon(TOC) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand(BOD) loads in Nakdong river using a MVUE.

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Analysis of SWAT Simulated Errors with the Use of MOE Land Cover Data (환경부 토지피복도 사용여부에 따른 예측 SWAT 오류 평가)

  • Heo, Sung-Gu;Kim, Nam-Won;Yoo, Dong-Sun;Kim, Ki-Sung;Lim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.194-198
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    • 2008
  • Significant soil erosion and water quality degradation issues are occurring at highland agricultural areas of Kangwon province because of agronomic and topographical specialities of the region. Thus spatial and temporal modeling techniques are often utilized to analyze soil erosion and sediment behaviors at watershed scale. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is one of the watershed scale models that have been widely used for these ends in Korea. In most cases, the SWAT users tend to use the readily available input dataset, such as the Ministry of Environment (MOE) land cover data ignoring temporal and spatial changes in land cover. Spatial and temporal resolutions of the MOE land cover data are not good enough to reflect field condition for accurate assesment of soil erosion and sediment behaviors. Especially accelerated soil erosion is occurring from agricultural fields, which is sometimes not possible to identify with low-resolution MOD land cover data. Thus new land cover data is prepared with cadastral map and high spatial resolution images of the Doam-dam watershed. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with this land cover data. The EI values were 0.79 and 0.85 for streamflow calibration and validation, respectively. The EI were 0.79 and 0.86 for sediment calibration and validation, respectively. These EI values were greater than those with MOE land cover data. With newly prepared land cover dataset for the Doam-dam watershed, the SWAT model better predicts hydrologic and sediment behaviors. The number of HRUs with new land cover data increased by 70.2% compared with that with the MOE land cover, indicating better representation of small-sized agricultural field boundaries. The SWAT estimated annual average sediment yield with the MOE land cover data was 61.8 ton/ha/year for the Doam-dam watershed, while 36.2 ton/ha/year (70.7% difference) of annual sediment yield with new land cover data. Especially the most significant difference in estimated sediment yield was 548.0% for the subwatershed #2 (165.9 ton/ha/year with the MOE land cover data and 25.6 ton/ha/year with new land cover data developed in this study). The results obtained in this study implies that the use of MOE land cover data in SWAT sediment simulation for the Doam-dam watershed could results in 70.7% differences in overall sediment estimation and incorrect identification of sediment hot spot areas (such as subwatershed #2) for effective sediment management. Therefore it is recommended that one needs to carefully validate land cover for the study watershed for accurate hydrologic and sediment simulation with the SWAT model.

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A Study on the Simulation of Runoff Hydograph by Using Artificial Neural Network (신경회로망을 이용한 유출수문곡선 모의에 관한 연구)

  • An, Gyeong-Su;Kim, Ju-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 1998
  • It is necessary to develop methodologies for the application of artificial neural network into hydrologic rainfall-runoff process, although there is so much applicability by using the functions of associative memory based on recognition for the relationships between causes and effects and the excellent fitting capacity for the nonlinear phenomenon. In this study, some problems are presented in the application procedures of artificial neural networks and the simulation of runoff hydrograph experiences are reviewed with nonlinear functional approximator by artificial neural network for rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed. which is regarded as hydrdologic black box model. The neural network models are constructed by organizing input and output patterns with the deserved rainfall and runoff data in Pyoungchang river basin under the assumption that the rainfall data is the input pattern and runoff hydrograph is the output patterns. Analyzed with the results. it is possible to simulate the runoff hydrograph with processing element of artificial neural network with any hydrologic concepts and the weight among processing elements are well-adapted as model parameters with the assumed model structure during learning process. Based upon these results. it is expected that neural network theory can be utilized as an efficient approach to simulate runoff hydrograph and identify the relationship between rainfall and runoff as hydrosystems which is necessary to develop and manage water resources.

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Development and Application of a Landfill Gas Migration Model (폐기물 매립지에서의 가스 거동에 관한 모델 개발과 적용)

  • Park, Yu-Chul;Lee, Kang-Kun;Park, Chul-Hwi;Kim, Yong-Woo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.325-333
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    • 1996
  • numerical model is developed to estimate gas flow in the landfill site. Darcy's law, the mass conservation law, and the ideal gas state equation are combined to compose the governing equation for the steady-state and transient-state gas flows. The finite element method (FEM) is used as the numerical solution scheme. Two-dimensional radial symmetric triangular ring element is used to discretize the simulation domain. The steady state model developed in this study is compared with AIRFLOW that is a commercial model developed by Hydrologic Inc. Mass balance test is performed on the transient gas flow simulation. The developed model is applied to analyze the gas extraction experiment performed by Daewoo Institute of Construction Technology at the Nanjido landfill in 1993. The developed model was registered at Korea Computer Program Protection Foundation.

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