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Analyzing on the cause of downstream submergence damages in rural areas with dam discharge using dam management data

  • Sung-Wook Yun;Chan Yu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.373-389
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    • 2023
  • The downstream submergence damages caused during the flood season in 2020, around the Yongdam-dam and five other sites, were analyzed using related dam management data. Hourly- and daily-data were collected from public national websites and to conduct various analyses, such as autocorrelation, partial-correlation, stationary test, trend test, Granger causality, Rescaled analysis, and principal statistical analysis, to find the cause of the catastrophic damages in 2020. The damage surrounding the Yongdam-dam in 2020 was confirmed to be caused by mis-management of the flood season water level. A similar pattern was found downstream of the Namgang- and Hapcheon-dams, however the damage caused via discharges from these dams in same year is uncertain. Conversely, a different pattern from that of the Yongdam-dam was seen in the areas downstream of Sumjingang- and Daecheongdams, in which the management of the flood season water level appeared appropriate and hence, the damages is assumed to have occurred via the increase in the absolute discharge amount from the dams and flood control capacity leakage of the downstream river. Because of the non-stationarity of the management data, we adapted the wavelet transform analysis to observe the behaviors of the dam management data in detail. Based on the results, an increasing trend in the discharge amount was observed from the dams after the year 2000, which may serve as a warning about similar trends in the future. Therefore, additional and continuous research on downstream safety against dam discharges is necessary.

A Comparative Study of Rain Intensities Retrieved from Radar and Satellite Observations: Two Cases of Heavy Rainfall Events by Changma and Bolaven (TY15) (장마와 볼라벤(태풍 15호)에 동반된 집중호우 레이더관측과 위성관측 자료로부터 도출한 강우강도의 비교연구)

  • Lee, Dong-In;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.569-582
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    • 2012
  • The heavy rainfalls caused large property damages and human casualties. For example, Changma caused 0.25 billion dollars in damages and 57 deaths and 112 missing by accompanying the torrentially convective heavy rainfall in Seoul, 2011. In addition, TY15 (Bolaven) caused a small damage by bringing a relatively small amount of rainfall and strong wind in Gwanju, 2012. The investigation and analyses of these mesoscale processes of rainfall events for different physical properties using KLAPS for weather environments of the above cases were performed. These typical and ideal meoscale systems by better and more favorable cloud systems were chosen to retrieve rain intensity from Radar and Chullian data. The quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ greatly from the ground-based gauge values with underestimating over 50 mm/hr at the peak time of hourly maximum rain intensity about over than 85 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity demonstrated approximately lower than 35 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity less than 60 mm/hr for Changma in Seoul, 2011. For typhoon (TY15, Bolaven) in Gwangju, similarly, the quantitative rain intensities of Radar and Chullian differ from the ground-based gauge values. At the peak time, the hourly maximum rain intensity of ground-based gauge was more than 15 mm/hr. However, the Radar rain intensity showed lower than 5 mm/hr, and the Chullian rain intensity lower than 10 mm/hr. Regarding the above two cases of typhoon and Changma, even though Radar and Chullian rain intensities have been underestimated when compared to the ground-based rain intensity, the distributions of time scale features of both Radar and Chullian rain intensities still delineated a similar tendency of rain intensity distribution of the ground-based gauge data.

ALL-SKY OBSERVATION OF THE 2001 LEONID METEOR STORM: 1. METEOR MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION (전천 카메라를 이용한 2001 사자자리 유성우 관측: 1. 유성 등급 분포)

  • 김정한;정종균;김용하;원영인;천무영;임홍서
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.283-298
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    • 2003
  • The 2001 Leonid meteor storm has been observed all over the world, and its most intense flux since the last few decades has caused great interest among both laymen and experts. Especially, its maximum hours occurred at dawn hours of Nov. 19 in the east Asia, during which moonless clear night at the Mt. Bohyun allowed us near perfect condition of observation. Observation was carried out in the period of 01:00∼05:40(KST), which include the predicted maximum hours, with all-sky camera installed for upper atmospheric airglow research. Tn this paper we analyze 68 all-sky images obtained in this period, which contain records of 172 meteors. Utilizing the zenith hourly rate(ZHR) of 3000 and magnitude distribution index of 2, which were reported to International Meteor Organization by visible observers in the east Asia, we estimate the limiting magnitude of about 3 for meteors detected in our all-sky images. We then derive magnitudes of 83 meteors with clear pixel brightness outlines among the initially detected 172 meteors by comparing with neighbor standard stars. Angular velocities of meteors needed for computing their passing times over an all-sky image are expressed with a simple formula of an angle between a meteor head and the Leonid radiant point. The derived magnitudes of 83 meteors are in the range of -6∼-1 magnitude, and its distribution shows a maximum new -3mag. The derived magnitudes are much smaller than the limiting magnitude inferred from the comparison with the result of naked-eye observations. The difference may be due to the characteristic difference between nearly instantaneuous naked-eye observations and CCD observations with a long exposure. We redetermine magnitudes of the meteors by adjusting a meteor lasting time to be consistent with the naked-eye observations. The relative distribution of the redetermined magnitudes, which has a maximum at 0 mag., resembles that of the magnitudes determined with the in-principle method. The relative distribution is quite different from ones that decrease monotonically with decreasing magnitudes for meteors(1∼6) sensitive to naked-eye observations. We conclude from the magnitude distribution of our all-sky observation that meteors brighter than about 0 mag., appeared more frequently during the 2001 Leonid maximum hours. The frequent appearance of bright meteors has significantly important implication for meteor research. We noted, however, considerably large uncertainties in magnitudes determined only by comparing standard stars due to the unknown lasting time of meteors and the non-linear sensitivity of all-sky camera.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of the Radon Progeny Concentrations in the open Atmosphere and the Influence of Meteorological Parameters (대기중 라돈자핵종 농도의 일일 및 계절적 변화와 기상인자가 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dong-Myung;Kim, Chang-Kyu;Rho, Byung-Hwan;Lee, Seung-Chan;Kang, Hee-Dong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.207-216
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    • 2000
  • Continuous measurements of radon progeny concentrations in the open atmosphere and measurements of meteorological parameters were performed in Tajeon, using a continuous gross alpha/beta aerosol monitor and a weather measuring equipment between July 1999 and July 2000. These data were analyzed for half-hourly, daily, and seasonal variations. The distribution of daily averaged equilibrium equivalent radon concentration$(EEC_{Rn})$ had an arithmetic mean value of $11.3{\pm}5.86Bqm^{-3}$ with the coefficient of variation of about 50% and the geometric mean was $10.3Bqm^{-3}$. The $EEC_{Rn}$ varies between 0.83 and $43.3Bqm^{-3}$, depending on time of day and weather conditions. Half-hourly averaged data indicated a diurnal pattern with the outdoor $EEC_{Rn}$ reaching a maximum at sunrise and a minimum at sunset. The pattern of the seasonal variation of the $EEC_{Rn}$ in Taejon had a tendency of minimum concentration occurring in the summer(July) and maximum concentration occurring in the late autumn(November). But the seasonal variation of the $EEC_{Rn}$ is expect to vary greatly from place to place. The outdoor $EEC_{Rn}$ was highly dependent on the local climate features. Particularly the $EEC_{Rn}$an rapidly drops less than $5Bqm^{-3}$ in case of blowing heavily higher than wind speed of $6msec^{-1}$, reversely the days with more than $30Bqm^{-3}$ were at a calm weather condition with the wind speed of lower than $1msec^{-1}$.

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Troposhperic Ozone Pollutions in Korea during 1998-2002 Using Two Ozone Indices for Vegetation Protection (식생보호를 위한 한계농도 누적 지표로 본 1998-2002년도의 우리나라 대기권 오존 오염)

  • 윤성철;김보선
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.38-48
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    • 2004
  • Tropospheric ozone data in Korea for 1998-2002 were analyzed to assess the impact on vegetation. SUM06(sum of hourly concentrations at or above 0.06 ppm) and AOT40(accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb), widely used as ozone indices in the U.S. and Europe, were calculated based on hourly ozone concentration in 612 areas during 1998-2002 in Korea. SUM06 of the highest 30 areas were 5-12 ppm/hr which were almost the same levels of the U.S. average, and a crop loss of 5% would be expected. Ozone pollution in Seoul during 1998-2002 had decreased compared to that for 1990-97 except in the Northern area; however, ozone pollution in Kyunggi during 1998-2002 had been increased twice compare to the previous 5 years. Korea was divided into four regions: Seoul Metropolitan area, Jungbu, Honam, and Youngnam. Ozone pollution in the Seoul Metropolitan area was much higher during 1998-2000 than the other areas, but ozone pollution during 2001-2002 was almost the same in all four regions. Chunnam-Kwangyang na Kyungbuk-Gumi, famous industrial complexes in southern Korea, were significant ozone pollution areas. However, other industrial complexes, such as Incheon, Ulsan, and Kyunggi-Sihwa, were not polluted compared to their neighbors. Comparing all ozone indices, SUM06(yr), SUM06(3mon), AOT40(yr), AOT40(3mon), number of hours exceeding 100 ppb, 95 percentile, 99 percentile, and maximum concentration, it was determined reasonable to use SUM06(3mon), AOT40(3mon) and number of hours exceeding 100 ppb for evaluation of the chronic impact of ozone on vegetation.

A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea (일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong-Ik;Yun, Dork-Ro;Shin, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

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An Empirical Study on the Spatial Effect of Distribution Patterns between Small Business and Social-environmental factors (소상공인 점포의 분포와 환경요인의 공간적 영향관계에 관한 실증연구)

  • YOO, Mu-Sang;CHOI, Don-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2019
  • This research measured and visualized the spatial dependency and the spatial heterogeneity of the small business in Cheonan-si, Asan-si with $100m{\times}100m$ grids based on global and local spatial autocorrelation. First, we confirmed positive spatial autocorrelation of small business in the research area using Moran's I Index, which is ESDA(Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis). And then, through Getis-Ord $GI{\ast}$, one kind of LISA(Local Indicators of Spatial Association), local patterns of spatial autocorrelation were visualized. These verified that Spatial Regression Model is valid for the location factor analysis on small business commercial buildings. Next, GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression) was used to analyze the spatial relations between the distribution of small business, hourly mobile traffic-based floating population, land use attributes index, residence, commercial building, road networks, and the node of traffic networks. Final six variables were applied and the accessibility to bus stops, afternoon time floating population, and evening time floating population were excluded due to multicollinearity. By this, we demonstrated that GWR is statistically improved compared to OLS. We visualized the spatial influence of the individual variables using the regression coefficients and local coefficients of determinant of the six variables. This research applied the measured population information in a practical way. Reflecting the dynamic information of the urban people using the commercial area. It is different from other studies that performed commercial analysis. Finally, this research has a differentiated advantage over the existing commercial area analysis in that it employed hourly changing commercial service population data and it applied spatial statistical models to micro spatial units. This research proposed new framework for the commercial analysis area analysis.

On Using Near-surface Remote Sensing Observation for Evaluation Gross Primary Productivity and Net Ecosystem CO2 Partitioning (근거리 원격탐사 기법을 이용한 총일차생산량 추정 및 순생태계 CO2 교환량 배분의 정확도 평가에 관하여)

  • Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Cho, Sungsik;Sohn, Seungwon;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Su-Jin;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Mingu;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 2021
  • Remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) are empirically related with gross primary productivity (GPP) in various spatio-temporal scales. The uncertainties in GPP-VI relationship increase with temporal resolution. Uncertainty also exists in the eddy covariance (EC)-based estimation of GPP, arising from the partitioning of the measured net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). For two forests and two agricultural sites, we correlated the EC-derived GPP in various time scales with three different near-surface remotely sensed VIs: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), (2) enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and (3) near infrared reflectance from vegetation (NIRv) along with NIRvP (i.e., NIRv multiplied by photosynthetically active radiation, PAR). Among the compared VIs, NIRvP showed highest correlation with half-hourly and monthly GPP at all sites. The NIRvP was used to test the reliability of GPP derived by two different NEE partitioning methods: (1) original KoFlux methods (GPPOri) and (2) machine-learning based method (GPPANN). GPPANN showed higher correlation with NIRvP at half-hourly time scale, but there was no difference at daily time scale. The NIRvP-GPP correlation was lower under clear sky conditions due to co-limitation of GPP by other environmental conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. However, under cloudy conditions when photosynthesis is mainly limited by radiation, the use of NIRvP was more promising to test the credibility of NEE partitioning methods. Despite the necessity of further analyses, the results suggest that NIRvP can be used as the proxy of GPP at high temporal-scale. However, for the VIs-based GPP estimation with high temporal resolution to be meaningful, complex systems-based analysis methods (related to systems thinking and self-organization that goes beyond the empirical VIs-GPP relationship) should be developed.

Retrieval of Hourly Aerosol Optical Depth Using Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance from GOCI-II and Machine Learning over South Korea (GOCI-II 대기상한 반사도와 기계학습을 이용한 남한 지역 시간별 에어로졸 광학 두께 산출)

  • Seyoung Yang;Hyunyoung Choi;Jungho Im
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.933-948
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    • 2023
  • Atmospheric aerosols not only have adverse effects on human health but also exert direct and indirect impacts on the climate system. Consequently, it is imperative to comprehend the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols. Numerous research endeavors have been undertaken to monitor aerosols, predominantly through the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) via satellite-based observations. Nonetheless, this approach primarily relies on a look-up table-based inversion algorithm, characterized by computationally intensive operations and associated uncertainties. In this study, a novel high-resolution AOD direct retrieval algorithm, leveraging machine learning, was developed using top-of-atmosphere reflectance data derived from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GOCI-II), in conjunction with their differences from the past 30-day minimum reflectance, and meteorological variables from numerical models. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) technique was harnessed, and the resultant estimates underwent rigorous validation encompassing random, temporal, and spatial N-fold cross-validation (CV) using ground-based observation data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The three CV results consistently demonstrated robust performance, yielding R2=0.70-0.80, RMSE=0.08-0.09, and within the expected error (EE) of 75.2-85.1%. The Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis confirmed the substantial influence of reflectance-related variables on AOD estimation. A comprehensive examination of the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in Seoul and Ulsan revealed that the developed LGBM model yielded results that are in close concordance with AERONET AOD over time, thereby confirming its suitability for AOD retrieval at high spatiotemporal resolution (i.e., hourly, 250 m). Furthermore, upon comparing data coverage, it was ascertained that the LGBM model enhanced data retrieval frequency by approximately 8.8% in comparison to the GOCI-II L2 AOD products, ameliorating issues associated with excessive masking over very illuminated surfaces that are often encountered in physics-based AOD retrieval processes.

Development of an Automated Algorithm for Analyzing Rainfall Thresholds Triggering Landslide Based on AWS and AMOS

  • Donghyeon Kim;Song Eu;Kwangyoun Lee;Sukhee Yoon;Jongseo Lee;Donggeun Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2024
  • This study presents an automated Python algorithm for analyzing rainfall characteristics to establish critical rainfall thresholds as part of a landslide early warning system. Rainfall data were sourced from the Korea Meteorological Administration's Automatic Weather System (AWS) and the Korea Forest Service's Automatic Mountain Observation System (AMOS), while landslide data from 2020 to 2023 were gathered via the Life Safety Map. The algorithm involves three main steps: 1) processing rainfall data to correct inconsistencies and fill data gaps, 2) identifying the nearest observation station to each landslide location, and 3) conducting statistical analysis of rainfall characteristics. The analysis utilized power law and nonlinear regression, yielding an average R2 of 0.45 for the relationships between rainfall intensity-duration, effective rainfall-duration, antecedent rainfall-duration, and maximum hourly rainfall-duration. The critical thresholds identified were 0.9-1.4 mm/hr for rainfall intensity, 68.5-132.5 mm for effective rainfall, 81.6-151.1 mm for antecedent rainfall, and 17.5-26.5 mm for maximum hourly rainfall. Validation using AUC-ROC analysis showed a low AUC value of 0.5, highlighting the limitations of using rainfall data alone to predict landslides. Additionally, the algorithm's speed performance evaluation revealed a total processing time of 30 minutes, further emphasizing the limitations of relying solely on rainfall data for disaster prediction. However, to mitigate loss of life and property damage due to disasters, it is crucial to establish criteria using quantitative and easily interpretable methods. Thus, the algorithm developed in this study is expected to contribute to reducing damage by providing a quantitative evaluation of critical rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides.