• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.7-15
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• 2010

Research of this paper focused on developing and demonstrating of algorithm with the figures of difference between historical traffic pattern data and real-time traffic data to decide on what the incident is. The aim of this dissertation is to develop incident detection algorithm which can be understood and modified easier to operate. To establish traffic pattern of this algorithm, weighted moving average method was applied. The basis of this method was traffic volume and speed of the same day and time at the same location based on 30-second raw data. The model was completed by a serious of steps of process-screening process of error data, decision of the traffic condition, comparison with pattern data, decision of incident circumstances, continuity test. A variety of parameter value was applied to select reasonable parameter. Results of application of the algorithm came out with figures of average detection rate 94.7 percent, 0.8 percent rate of misinformation and the average detection time 1.6 minutes. With these following results, the detection rate turned out to be superior compared with result of existing model. Applying the concept of traffic patterns was useful to gain excellent results of this study. Also, this study is significant in terms of making algorithm which theorized the decision process of actual operators.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.1-11
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• 2014

In this paper, travel speed patterns were deducted based on historical DSRC travel speed data using Decision Tree technique to improve availability of the massive amount of historical data. These patterns were designed to reflect spatio-temporal vicissitudes in reality by generating pattern units classified by months, time of day, and highway sections. The study area was from Seoul TG to Ansung IC sections on Gyung-bu highway where high peak time of day frequently occurs in South Korea. Decision Tree technique was applied to categorize travel speed according to day of week. As a result, five different pattern groups were generated: (Mon)(Tue Wed Thu)(Fri)(Sat)(Sun). Statistical verification was conducted to prove the validity of patterns on nine different highway sections, and the accuracy of fitting was found to be 93%. To reduce travel pattern errors against individual travel speed data, inclusion of four additional variables were also tested. Among those variables, 'traffic condition on previous month' variable improved the pattern grouping accuracy by reducing 50% of speed variance in the decision tree model developed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.833-839
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• 2019

Bus Information System (BIS) collects information related to the operation of buses and provides information to users through predictive algorithms. Method of predicting through recent information in same section reflects the traffic situation of the section, but cannot reflect the characteristics of the target line. The method of predicting the historical data at the same time zone is limited in forecasting peak time with high volatility of traffic flow. Therefore, we developed a pattern recognition bus arrival time prediction algorithm which could be overcome previous limitation. This method recognize the traffic pattern of target flow and select the most similar past traffic pattern. The results of this study were compared with the BIS arrival forecast information history of Seoul. RMSE of travel time between estimated and observed was approximately 35 seconds (40 seconds in BIS) at the off-peak time and 40 seconds (60 seconds in BIS) at the peak time. This means that there is data that can represent the current traffic situation in other time zones except for the same past time zone.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.795-797
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• 2005

During the past few years, various traffic-flow forecasting models, i.e. an ARIMA, an ANN, and so on, have been developed to predict more accurate traffic flow. However, these models analyze historical data in an attempt to predict future value of a variable of interest. They make use of the following basic strategy. Past data are analyzed in order to identify a pattern that can be used to describe them. Then this pattern is extrapolated, or extended, into the future in order to make forecasts. This strategy rests on the assumption that the pattern that has been identified will continue into the future. So ARIMA or ANN models with its traditional architecture cannot be expected to give good predictions unless this assumption is valid; The statistical models in particular, the time series models are deficient in the sense that they merely extrapolate past patterns in the data without reflecting the expected irregular and infrequent future events Also forecasting power of a single model is limited to its accurate. In this paper, we compared with an ANN model and ARIMA model and tried to combine an ARIMA model and ANN model for obtaining a better forecasting performance. In addition to combining two models, we also introduced judgmental adjustment technique. Our approach can improve the forecasting power in traffic flow. To validate our model, we have compared the performance with other models. Finally we prove that the proposed model, i.e. ARIMA + ANN + Judgmental Adjustment, is superior to the other model.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.11
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• pp.643-654
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• 2018

In order to understand and manage traffic flows in urban areas in the past, a variety of traffic engineering theoretical indicators such as intersection lag and highway speed have been applied. However, these theories and indicators have been developed under the constraints of traffic engineering research before the construction of intelligent transportation system. Since the ATIS system currently exists, it is necessary to introduce a separate traffic engineering technology that utilizes the data. In this paper, it is aimed to confirm whether it is applicable to intermittent flow (approach road, intersection, control group, main road axis) by using 'congestion intensity' which is already used in traffic engineering field. The results of this study are as follows: (1) The traffic signal improvement effect of urban road access road, intersection road, control group, Two verification studies were performed to verify the derived congestion intensity index. (1) verification of congestion intensity threshold value analysis and (2) crossing improvement using the congestion intensity. Through verification, it was confirmed that it is possible to apply the congestion intensity in the inter - city intermittent flow using the 5 - minute unit speed data so as to be able to escape from the existing traffic signal operation management which is past passive and manpower limit.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.497-507
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• 2015

Nonrecurrent congestion of freeway was primarily caused by incident. The main cause of incident was known as a traffic accident. Therefore, accurate prediction of traffic incident clearance time is very important in accident management. Traffic accident data on freeway during year 2008 to year 2014 period were analyzed for this study. KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor) algorithm was hired for developing incident clearance time prediction model with the historical traffic accident data. Analysis result of accident data explains the level of accident significantly affect on the incident clearance time. For this reason, incident clearance time was categorized by accident level. Data were sorted by classification of traffic volume, number of lanes and time periods to consider traffic conditions and roadway geometry. Factors affecting incident clearance time were analyzed from the extracted data for identifying similar types of accident. Lastly, weight of detail factors was calculated in order to measure distance metric. Weight was calculated with applying standard method of normal distribution, then incident clearance time was predicted. Prediction result of model showed a lower prediction error(MAPE) than models of previous studies. The improve model developed in this study is expected to contribute to the efficient highway operation management when incident occurs.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.756-761
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• 2021

Dynamic route guidance (DRG) finds the fastest path from a source to a destination location considering the real-time congestion information. In Korea, the traffic state information is available by the public transportation data (PTD) which is indexed on top of the node-link map (NLM). While the NLM is the authoritative low-detailed road network for major roads only, the OpenStreetMap road network (ORN) supports not only a high-detailed road network but also a few open-source routing engines, such as OSRM and Valhalla. In this paper, we propose a DRG framework based on road network matching between the NLM and ORN. This framework regularly retrieves the NLM-indexed PTD to construct a historical speed profile which is then mapped to ORN. Next, we extend the Valhalla routing engine to support dynamic routing based on the historical speed profile. The numerical results at the Yeoui-do island with collected 11-month PTD show that our DRG framework reduces the travel time up to 15.24 % and improves the estimation accuracy of travel time more than 5 times.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.848-857
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• 2018

Recently, around the world, active development of new renewable energy sources including solar power, waves, and fuel cells, etc. has taken place. Particularly, floating offshore wind farms have been developed for saving costs through large scale production, using high-quality wind power and minimizing noise damage in the ocean area. The development of floating wind farms requires an evaluation of the Maritime Safety Audit Scheme under the Maritime Safety Act in Korea. Floating wind farms shall be assessed by applying the line and area concept for systematic development, management and utilization of specified sea water. The development of appropriate evaluation methods and standards is also required. In this study, proper standards for marine traffic surveys and assessments were established and a systemic treatment was studied for assessing marine spatial area. First, a marine traffic data collector using AIS or radar was designed to conduct marine traffic surveys. In addition, assessment methods were proposed such as historical tracks, traffic density and marine traffic pattern analysis applying the line and area concept. Marine traffic density can be evaluated by spatial and temporal means, with an adjusted grid-cell scale. Marine traffic pattern analysis was proposed for assessing ship movement patterns for transit or work in sea areas. Finally, conceptual design of a Marine Traffic and Safety Assessment Solution (MaTSAS) was competed that can be analyzed automatically to collect and assess the marine traffic data. It could be possible to minimize inaccurate estimation due to human errors such as data omission or misprints through automated and systematic collection, analysis and retrieval of marine traffic data. This study could provides reliable assessment results, reflecting the line and area concept, according to sea area usage.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.27-36
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• 2019

An accurate trajectory prediction is a key to the safe and efficient operations of aircraft. One way to improve trajectory prediction accuracy is to develop a model for aircraft ground speed prediction. This paper proposes a generative model for posterior aircraft ground speed prediction. The proposed method fits the Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) to historical data of aircraft speed, and then the model is used to generates probabilistic speed profile of the aircraft. The performances of the proposed method are demonstrated with real traffic data in Incheon Flight Information Region(FIR).

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.521-528
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• 2016

The tollbooths of a main motorway toll plaza are usually operated proactively responding to the variations of traffic demands of two-type vehicles, i.e. cars and the other (heavy) vehicles, respectively. In this vein, it is one of key elements to forecast accurate traffic volumes for the two vehicle types in advanced tollgate operation. Unfortunately, it is not easy for existing univariate short-term prediction techniques to simultaneously generate the two-vehicle-type traffic demands in literature. These practical and academic backgrounds make it one of attractive research topics in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) forecasting area to forecast the future traffic volumes of the two-type vehicles at an acceptable level of accuracy. In order to address the shortcomings of univariate short-term prediction techniques, a Multiple In-and-Out (MIO) forecasting model to simultaneously generate the two-type traffic volumes is introduced in this article. The MIO model based on a non-parametric approach is devised under the on-line access conditions of large-scale historical data. In a feasible test with actual data, the proposed model outperformed Kalman filtering, one of a widely-used univariate models, in terms of prediction accuracy in spite of multivariate prediction scheme.