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불확실성을 고려한 기후변화 시나리오의 선정 (Selecting Climate Change Scenarios Reflecting Uncertainties)

  • 이재경;김영오
    • 대기
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.149-161
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    • 2012
  • Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

다중 사용자 OFDM 시스템에서 효율적인 자원 활용을 위한 향상된 유전자 알고리즘 기반의 비트-부반송파 할당방법 (Improved Genetic Algorithm Based Bit and Subcarrier Allocation Scheme for Efficient Resource Use in Multiuser OFDM Systems)

  • 송정섭;김성수;장갑석;김동회
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제33권11A호
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    • pp.1095-1104
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    • 2008
  • 다중 사용자 OFDM 시스템에서 제한된 자원을 효율적으로 사용하기 위해서는 부반송파와 비트의 할당은 중요한 역할을 한다. 하지만 부반송파와 비트의 할당문제는 비선형적 문제로 모든 경우의 수를 계산하여 최적의 값을 얻기에는 사실상 불가능하다. 본 논문에서는 비선형적 문제의 효율적인 자원 활용을 위해서 새로운 유전자 알고리즘을 사용하였다. 논문에서 제안된 알고리즘은 기존의 정형화된 유전자 알고리즘보다 다양한 조합을 참고하여 해를 찾게 된다. 따라서 수치적 시뮬레이션 결과들을 통해서 기존의 알고리즘들과 제안된 알고리즘을 비교해 볼 때, 제안한 알고리즘이 기존의 알고리즘들보다 뛰어난 성능을 보임을 확인하였다.

Highly efficient phosphorescent polymer OLEDs fabricated by screen printing

  • Lee, D.H.;Choi, J.S.;Cho, S.M.
    • 한국정보디스플레이학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보디스플레이학회 2007년도 7th International Meeting on Information Display 제7권1호
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    • pp.694-697
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    • 2007
  • We demonstrate the use of screen printing in the fabrication of highly efficient phosphorescent polymer organic-light-emitting devices (OLEDs) based on a green-emitting $Ir(ppy)_3$ and a host polymer PVK. We incorporate PBD in the polymer host as an electron-transporting dopant and ${\alpha}-NPD$ as a hole transporting dopant. The best screen printed single-layer device exhibits very high peak luminous efficiency of 63 cd/A at a relatively high operating voltage of 17.1 V at the luminance of $650\;cd/m^2$. We observed the highest luminance of $21,000\;Cd/m^2$ at 35V. Due to the high operating voltage, despite of the high peak luminous efficiency the peak power efficiency was found to be 12.2 lm/W at the luminance of $470\;cd/m^2$ (15.9 V).

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미국인의 김치와 김치이용음식에 대한 인식과 기호도 - Illinois주와 California주 - (A Survey of American's Perception and Preference for Korean Kimchi: Focus on Illinois and California)

  • 한재숙;한경필;이진식;한갑조;김영진
    • 한국식생활문화학회지
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.499-507
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate American's perception and preference for Korean kimchi. A questionnaire was used to examine the perceptions of 126 males (40.4%) and 186 females (59.6%) residing in Illinois and California. Approximately 68% of the respondents had eaten Korean food. The perception of kimchi was the highest with a mean of 3.62. The respondents felt that the "Kimchi is a good side dish with cooked rice", "Kimchi (with garlic) prevents SARS", which was significantly different (M=3.06, p< .001), and "Kimchi prevents adult diseases" (M=3.24, p< .01). When evaluating the different kinds of kimchi, onion juice kimchi had the most preferred taste and also the highest overall acceptability (M=5.50, p< .05) of the second days. In the sensory evaluation by kimchi use, the best taste (p< .001) was in the order of kimchi pizza (M=6.58), kimchi dumplings (M=6.40), and kimchi chicken a'laking (M=6.33). The order for overall acceptability (p< .001) was kimchi dumplings (M=6.30), kimchi pizza (M=6.25), kimchi bacon roll, kimchi fried rice, and kimchi chicken a'laking (M=6.17).

스프링백 해석 정도 향상을 위한 입력조건에 관한 연구 (A study on the Effects of Input Parameters on Springback Prediction Accuracy)

  • 한연수;오세욱;최광용
    • 한국소성가공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소성가공학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.285-288
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    • 2007
  • The use of commercial finite element analysis software to perform the entire process analysis and springback analysis has increased fast for last decade. Pamstamp2G is one of commercial software to be used widely in the world but it has still not been perfected in the springback prediction accuracy. We must select the combination of input parameters for the highest springback prediction accuracy in Pamstamp2G because springback prediction accuracy is sensitive to input parameters. Then we study the affect of input parameters to use member part for acquiring high springback prediction accuracy in Pamstamp2G. First, we choose important four parameters which are adaptive mesh level at drawing stage and cam flange stage, Gauss integration point number through the thickness and cam offset on basis of experiment. Second, we make a orthogonal array table L82[(7)] which is consist of 8 cases to be combined 4 input parameters, compare to tryout result and select main factors after analyzing affect factors of input parameters by Taguchi's method in 6 sigma. Third, we simulate after changing more detail the conditions of parameters to have big affect. At last, we find the best combination of input parameters for the highest springback prediction accuracy in Pamstamp2G. The results of the study provide the selection of input parameters to Pamstamp2G users who want to Increase the springback prediction accuracy.

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Biologics For The Protection Of Forests On The Basis Of Mushroom Phlebiopsis Gigantea With Deep Cultivation On Alcohol Stillage Production

  • Kuznetsov, Ilya
    • 식품보건융합연구
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.6-11
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    • 2018
  • In the Republic of Belarus as well as in the world acute problem of protecting forests from diseases and pests. The damage caused by root rot is essential, therefore, the problem of forest protection is an urgent task. The biologics has the greatest prospects in according with traditional methods of struggle. Deep method of cultivation of a mushroom Phlebiopsis gigantea with use of nutrient mediums on the basis of ethanol stillage and its components (fugat) is researched. Feasibility of use stillage as raw materials in production of a biological product for the wood protection against root decay is shown. The effect of different additives (sawdust, fodder yeast) on the accumulation of reactive biological product - oidy has been studed It was determined that the deep cultivation using sawdust of the highest accumulation oidy (1.5 $10^6units/ml$). It was also found that the stillage is the best breeding ground for fungus biomass accumulation (7.9 9.8 g / l) versus fugat (6.0 6.6 g / l). On the basis of research work the technological scheme for production of a biological product were developed. Based on the conducted studies, a technological scheme was proposed for obtaining a biological preparation by deep cultivation of the fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea.

Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models for Investigating the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Iran, 2005- 2008

  • Khoshkar, Ahmad Haddad;Koshki, Tohid Jafari;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권14호
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    • pp.5669-5673
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    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent kind of cancer among women in Iran. Regarding the importance of cancer prevention and considerable variation of breast cancer incidence in different parts of the country, it is necessary to recognize regions with high incidence of breast cancer and evaluate the role of potential risk factors by use of advanced statistical models. The present study focussed on incidence of breast cancer in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some prominent covariates using Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: All patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2008 were included in the study. Smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and the Human Development Index (HDI), measured at the province level, were considered as potential modulating factors. Gamma-Poisson, log normal and BYM models were used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer in this ecological investigation with and without adjustment for the covariates. Results: The unadjusted BYM model had the best fit among applied models. Without adjustment, Isfahan, Yazd, and Tehran had the highest incidences and Sistan- Baluchestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari had the lowest. With the adjusted model, Khorasan-Razavi, Lorestan and Hamedan had the highest and Ardebil and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad the lowest incidences. A significantly direct association was found between breast cancer incidence and HDI. Conclusions: BYM model has better fit, because it contains parameters that allow including effects from neighbors. Since HDI is a significant variable, it is also recommended that HDI should be considered in future investigations. This study showed that Yazd, Isfahan and Tehran provinces feature the highest crude incidences of breast cancer.

구면과 토릭 소프트 렌즈로 교정한 약도 난시안의 대비감도와 눈부심 (Contrast Sensitivity and Glare with Spherical and Toric Soft Contact Lenses in Low-astigmatic Eyes)

  • 이민아;김현정;김재민
    • 한국안광학회지
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2009
  • 목적: 본 연구는 약도의 근시성 난시안의 토릭 소프트 렌즈와 다른 교정 방법의 효과를 알아보기 위해 대비감도 검사와 눈부심 장애 검사를 이용하여 시력의 질을 비교하였다. 방법: 1.50D이하의 경도 난시의 근시안인 남녀 대학생 20명(40안)을 대상으로 5가지 다른 방법(소프트렌즈 등가구면, 토릭 소프트 렌즈, RGP 렌즈, 난시교정 안경, 안경 등가구면)으로 교정하였다. 모든 대상자는 교정시력이 20/20(1.0) 이상이었다. 대비감도 검사와 눈부심 장애 검사는 OPTEC$^{(R)}$ 6500을 이용하여 밝은 조도과 어두운(글레어) 조도에서 실시하였다. 결과: 밝은 조도 하에서 난시교정 안경이 모든 공간주파수에서 가장 높은 대비감도를 나타내었고, 토릭 소프트 렌즈, RGP 렌즈, 안경 등가구면, 소프트 콘택트렌즈 등가구면 처방 순으로 대비감도가 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 모두 정상 범위의 대비감도 영역에 포함되었다. 어두운 조도(글레어) 하에서는 토릭 소프트 렌즈 착용자가 가장 높은 대비감도를 나타내었고, RGP렌즈, 안경 등가구면, 난시교정 안경, 소프트 렌즈 등가구면 처방 순으로 대비감도가 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다. 구면 소프트렌즈 착용자는 어두운 조도(글레어) 하에서 정상 영역보다 낮은 대비감도 값을 보였다. 결론: 약도의 근시성 난시안의 교정으로 토릭 소프트 렌즈 교정이 구면 소프트렌즈보다 좋은 시력의 질(대비감도)을 보인 것으로 나타났다. 어두운 조명에서 콘택트렌즈를 착용해야할 경우에는 토릭 소프트렌즈가 우수한 것으로 사료된다.

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Diversity, Interspecific Interaction and Abundance of Undergrowth in Monocultures and Integrated Systems of Natural Rubber Plantation in Danzhou, Southern China

  • Chima, Uzoma Darlington;Qi, Dongling;Wu, Zhixiang;Lan, Guoyu;Chen, Li
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제38권2호
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2022
  • The negative impact of monoculture rubber plantations on biodiversity and associated ecological processes/ecosystem services has led to suggestions on the use of integrated land use systems for rubber cultivation and production in order to ensure environmental sustainability. However, there is paucity of information on the effect of such integrated land use systems on the diversity and abundance of the rubber plantation undergrowth. We evaluated and compared undergrowth plant species composition, richness, abundance, diversity and interaction, in three integrated systems (Rubber-Strelitzia reginae Integrated System - RSrIS, Rubber-Podocarpus nagi Integrated System - RPnIS & Naturally Managed Rubber Plantation - NMRP) with three Rubber Monoculture Plantations (RMP1, RMP2 & RMP3) adjacent to the integrated systems, respectively, at the Investigation and Experiment Station of Tropical Crops, Danzhou, Hainan, China. Undergrowth species density was higher in the rubber monocultures than in the integrated systems except in RSrIS. Species richness and diversity were also higher in the monocultures except in NMRP. Species similarity/interaction between the monocultures and the integrated systems was highest between RMP3 and NMRP. The NRMP proved to be the best model of natural rubber integrated system for the conservation of undergrowth species richness, diversity and interspecific interaction. However, the conservation of undergrowth species in other forms of integrated natural systems can be enhanced by considering the ecology of species to be integrated in terms of their growth characteristics, competitive nature, and ability to grow in association with other species.

시그니처 트리를 사용한 의미적 유사성 검색 기법 (Semantic Similarity Search using the Signature Tree)

  • 김기성;임동혁;김철한;김형주
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:데이타베이스
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.546-553
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    • 2007
  • 온톨로지의 활용이 늘어나면서 의미적 유사성 검색에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 질의 객체와의 의미적 유사성이 높은 객체를 검색하는 최근접 질의 기법을 제안하였다. 의미적 유사성을 측정하는 유사성 함수로는 최적 대응값 방식의 유사도 함수를 사용하였으며 주석 정보에 대한 색인을 위해 시그니처 트리를 사용하였다. 시그니처 트리는 집합 유사성 검색에서 많이 사용되는 색인 구조로서 유사성 검색에 사용하기 위해서는 검색시 각 노드를 탐색하였을 때 발견할 수 있는 유사도의 최대값을 예측할 수 있어야 한다. 이에 본 논문에서는 최적 대응값 방식의 유사도 함수에 대한 예측 최대값 함수를 제안하고 올바른 예측 함수임을 증명하였다. 또한 시그니처 트리에 동일한 시그니처가 중복되어 저장되지 않도록 구조를 개선하였다. 이는 시그니처 트리의 크기를 감소시킬 뿐만 아니라 질의 성능 또한 향상시켜 주었다. 실험의 데이타로는 대용량 온톨로지와 주석 정보 데이타를 제공하는 Gene Ontology(GO)를 사용하였다. 실험에서는 제안한 방법의 성능 향상 외에도 페이지 크기와 노드 분할 방법이 의미적 유사성 질의 성능에 미치는 영향에 대해 알아보았다.