• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.81-96
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• 2013

Video information retrieval has become a very important issue because of the explosive increase in video data from Web content development. Meanwhile, content-based video analysis using visual features has been the main source for video information retrieval and browsing. Content in video can be represented with content-based analysis techniques, which can extract various features from audio-visual data such as frames, shots, colors, texture, or shape. Moreover, similarity between videos can be measured through content-based analysis. However, a movie that is one of typical types of video data is organized by story as well as audio-visual data. This causes a semantic gap between significant information recognized by people and information resulting from content-based analysis, when content-based video analysis using only audio-visual data of low level is applied to information retrieval of movie. The reason for this semantic gap is that the story line for a movie is high level information, with relationships in the content that changes as the movie progresses. Information retrieval related to the story line of a movie cannot be executed by only content-based analysis techniques. A formal model is needed, which can determine relationships among movie contents, or track meaning changes, in order to accurately retrieve the story information. Recently, story-based video analysis techniques have emerged using a social network concept for story information retrieval. These approaches represent a story by using the relationships between characters in a movie, but these approaches have problems. First, they do not express dynamic changes in relationships between characters according to story development. Second, they miss profound information, such as emotions indicating the identities and psychological states of the characters. Emotion is essential to understanding a character's motivation, conflict, and resolution. Third, they do not take account of events and background that contribute to the story. As a result, this paper reviews the importance and weaknesses of previous video analysis methods ranging from content-based approaches to story analysis based on social network. Also, we suggest necessary elements, such as character, background, and events, based on narrative structures introduced in the literature. We extract characters' emotional words from the script of the movie Pretty Woman by using the hierarchical attribute of WordNet, which is an extensive English thesaurus. WordNet offers relationships between words (e.g., synonyms, hypernyms, hyponyms, antonyms). We present a method to visualize the emotional pattern of a character over time. Second, a character's inner nature must be predetermined in order to model a character arc that can depict the character's growth and development. To this end, we analyze the amount of the character's dialogue in the script and track the character's inner nature using social network concepts, such as in-degree (incoming links) and out-degree (outgoing links). Additionally, we propose a method that can track a character's inner nature by tracing indices such as degree, in-degree, and out-degree of the character network in a movie through its progression. Finally, the spatial background where characters meet and where events take place is an important element in the story. We take advantage of the movie script to extracting significant spatial background and suggest a scene map describing spatial arrangements and distances in the movie. Important places where main characters first meet or where they stay during long periods of time can be extracted through this scene map. In view of the aforementioned three elements (character, event, background), we extract a variety of information related to the story and evaluate the performance of the proposed method. We can track story information extracted over time and detect a change in the character's emotion or inner nature, spatial movement, and conflicts and resolutions in the story.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.380-394
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• 2015

This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2014. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of heat and mass transfer, cooling and heating, and air-conditioning, the flow inside building rooms, and smoke control on fire. Research issues dealing with duct and pipe were reduced, but flows inside building rooms, and smoke controls were newly added in thermal and fluid engineering research area. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results for thermal contact resistance measurement of metal interface, a fan coil with an oval-type heat exchanger, fouling characteristics of plate heat exchangers, effect of rib pitch in a two wall divergent channel, semi-empirical analysis in vertical mesoscale tubes, an integrated drying machine, microscale surface wrinkles, brazed plate heat exchangers, numerical analysis in printed circuit heat exchanger. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, non-uniform air flow, PCM applied thermal storage wall system, a new wavy cylindrical shape capsule, and HFC32/HFC152a mixtures on enhanced tubes, were actively studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on solar water storage tank, effective design on the inserting part of refrigerator door gasket, impact of different boundary conditions in generating g-function, various construction of SCW type ground heat exchanger and a heat pump for closed cooling water heat recovery were performed. (3) In the field of refrigeration, various studies were carried out in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration and modelling and controls including energy recoveries from industrial boilers and vehicles, improvement of dehumidification systems, novel defrost systems, fault diagnosis and optimum controls for heat pump systems. It is particularly notable that a substantial number of studies were dedicated for the development of air-conditioning and power recovery systems for electric vehicles in this year. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, seventeen studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, and renewable energies, piping in the buildings. Proposed designs, performance performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which can improve the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the evaluation of work noise in tunnel construction and the simulation and development of a light-shelf system. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy saving of office building applied with window blind and phase change material(PCM), a method of existing building energy simulation using energy audit data, the estimation of thermal consumption unit of apartment building and its case studies, dynamic window performance, a writing method of energy consumption report and energy estimation of apartment building using district heating system. The remained studies were related to the improvement of architectural engineering education system for plant engineering industry, estimating cooling and heating degree days for variable base temperature, a prediction method of underground temperature, the comfort control algorithm of car air conditioner, the smoke control performance evaluation of high-rise building, evaluation of thermal energy systems of bio safety laboratory and a development of measuring device of solar heat gain coefficient of fenestration system.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.35-55
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• 2008

Assessing vulnerability to climate change is the first step to take when setting up appropriate adaptation strategies. Adaptive capacity to climate change is the important factor comprising vulnerability. An adaptive capacity index in agricultural water management system was developed considering agricultural water supply and demand for rice production in Jeolla-do, Korea. The agricultural water supply was assumed to be equal to the amount of water stored in the major agricultural reservoirs, while data on the agricultural water demand was obtained from the dynamic simulation results by Korea Agriculture Corporation(KAC). The spatial unit for analysis was conducted at the county(Si, Gun, Gu) level and temporal scale was based on every month from 1991-2003. Adaptive capacity for drought stress index(ACDS index) was calculated as the percentage of data points where the irrigated water supply was greater than the crop water demand. The ACDS index was compared with SWSCI(Standard Water Storage Capacity Index) and the relationship showed high degree of fit($R^2$=0.84) using the exponential function, indicating that the developed ACDS index is useful for evaluating the status of the balance between agricultural water supply and demand, especially for the small sized agricultural reservoirs. This study provided the methodological basis for developing climate change vulnerability index in agricultural water system which is projected to be more frequently exposed to drought condition in the future due to climate change. Further research should be extended to the study on the water demand of the crops other than rice and to the projection of the change in ACDS index in the future.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.410-417
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• 2000

Purpose: Idoxifene is currently entering phase II clinical trials for the treatment of advanced breast cancer. The radiolabeled idoxifene using $[^{123}I]$ provides an opportunity for clinical pharmacology with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). The purpose of this study was to prepare radiolabeled idoxifene using $[^{123}I]$ and to determine its cell uptake of breast cancer cell line. Materials and Methods: With a view to evaluating new anticancer drugs, we are investigating the novel antiestrogen pyrrolidino-4-iodotamoxifen (idoxifene). $[^{123}I]$Idoxifene has been prepared in no-carrier-added form using a tributyl stannylated precursor which has been synthesized by means of (2-chloroethoxy)benzene with (${\pm}$)-2-phenylbutanoic acid on the basis of previously reported standard methods. The biodistribution and dynamic behavior of the compound were investigated using the comparative breast cancer cell line, MCF-7 (estrogen receptor-positive) and MDA-MB-468 (non-estrogen receptor). Results and Conclusion: Acylation of (2-chloroethoxy)benzene with (${\pm}$)-2-phenylbutanoic acid gave the versatile ketone (81%) which reacted with 1,4-diiodobenzene to give triphenylethylene as a mixture of E and Z geometric isomers, which were separated by the recrystallization in ethanol. The E-isomer was treated with pyrrolidine to give idoxifene (67%). In order to incorporate radioactive iodine into the 4-position, the 4-stannylated precursor was prepared (30%). The yield of radioiodination was 90-92% with a high radiochemical purity greater than 98%. The ratio of tumor uptake of the breast cancer cell line between MCF-7 and MDA-MB-468 was about 1.7.

• The Korean Journal of Malacology
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• v.22 no.1 s.35
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• pp.27-38
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• 2006

We investigated the reproductive cycle with gonad developmental phases of Solen grandis by histological observations. Seasonal changes in biochemical components of the adductor muscle, visceral mass, foot muscle and mantle were studied by biochemical analysis, from January to December, 2005. The reproductive cycle of this species can be classified into five successive stages: early active stage (December to January), late active stage (January to March), ripe stage (March to July), partially spawned stage (June to July) and spent/inactive stage (July to December). Total protein content was the highest in the foot muscle, the content was high in January (early active stage), the lowest in April (ripe stage), and was the highest in August (partially spawned stage). In the visceral mass, total protein content began to increase in February (late active stage) and reached a maximum in March (ripe stage). Thereafter, it gradually decreased between June and July (partially spawned stage). There was a strong negative correlation in total protein contents between visceral mass and mantle (r = -0.594, p = 0.042). Meanwhile there was a positive correlation between the adductor muscle and foot muscle, the correlation was not statistically significant (r = 0.507, p = 0.093). Total lipid content was the highest in the visceral mass; it was more than 2 to 5-fold higher than that in the adductor muscle, foot muscle, and mantle. Monthly changes in total lipid content were also most dynamic in the visceral mass. It was relatively higher between January and February, showed a maximum in March (the ripe stage), decreased rapidly from April to July (ripe and partially spawned stage), and gradually decreased from September to December (spent/inactive stage). There was a strong positive correlation in total lipid content between foot muscle and adductor muscle (r = 0.639, p = 0.025). Tthough a negative correlation was found between visceral mass and mantle (r = -0.392), the correlation was not statistically significant (p = 0.208). Glycogen contents changed within relatively narrow range and were similar among different tissues. There was no statistically significant correlation in glycogen contents among tissues.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.361-367
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• 2022

This study was conducted to identify annual variation of observation and activity pattern of Korean chipmunk (Tamias sibiricus) using camera traps in the Seoraksan and Jirisan National Parks, South Korea from May 2019 to May 2021. The annual variation was identified based on the observed frequency through weekly observations. Daily activity patterns of the species were also analyzed by season. The daily activity pattern of chipmunk appeared to be constantly diurnal across the years regardless of habitat or season. The Korean chipmunks living in the two different regions were observed in different time periods throughout the year. While the chipmunks inhabiting the Seoraksan were observed from 18^th to 45^th week, the chipmunks inhabiting the Jirisan National Park were observed from 7^th to 48^th week. This may be influenced by the hibernation period of chipmunks in the two different regions. In both regions, chipmunks were most frequently observed in autumn. It is considered that seasonal variation on population dynamic and activity patterns of chipmunks were reflected in the observation frequency. Although the observation frequency of camera trap is an indirect indicator and thus having a limitation that it cannot distinguish the population density and amount of activity for the target species, camera trapping is still an effective survey technique for monitoring mammals due to its high accessibility and easy use.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.135-151
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• 2022

This study was conducted on a servicism basis as a study to build the management wisdom of Korea as an asset of human society. The case of the founding and development of the Republic of Korea, which developed into one of the world's leading powers with unprecedented rapid growth despite the devastating three-year war immediately after its founding, is an important subject of study. This study conducted a macroscopic analysis. In the process of carrying out the founding activities, it was confirmed that the original idea inherent in Koreans was the Taegeuk idea of the National Flag. The founders of the Republic of Korea consciously or unconsciously adopted the Taegeuk ideology as the founding ideology. It can be said that the Taegeuk ideology has led to greater success because it is based on the service philosophy, which is the common truth of mankind. In this study, the process of preparing for the founding of the Republic of Korea, which was founded by accepting a new maritime civilization from a country with a long continental civilization, the process of national foundation, and the process of operating the country after its founding were analyzed as a whole. In particular, it discovered the excellent wisdom of the founders who appropriately utilized the strengths of continental and maritime civilizations in necessary situations, and confirmed that the dynamic operating model of development through fierce competition between the two opponents was a success factor for high-speed national development. It requires great wisdom for Koreans with diverse ideological backgrounds and unique personalities to unite to establish and run a nation. This is because fierce competition and cooperation must be carried out at the same time. The great wisdom of the founding of the Republic of Korea was able to be demonstrated because the Taegeuk ideology was acting as a common basic ideology for Koreans. Taegeuk ideology, the source of wisdom that Korea has developed under constant tension, can be capitalized as human wisdom, and additional case studies are needed.

• Korean small business review
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.77-93
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• 2011

Since 2000, the employment rate of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has dwindled while the creation of new jobs and the emergence of healthy SMEs have been stagnant. The fundamental reason for these symptoms is that the economic structure is disadvantageous to SMEs. In particular, the greater gap between SMEs and large enterprises has resulted in polarization, and the resulting imbalance has become the largest obstacle to improving SMEs' competitiveness. For example, the total productivity has continued to drop, and the average productivity of SMEs is now merely 30% of that of large enterprises, and the average wage of SMEs' employees is only 53% of that of large enterprises. Along with polarization, rapid industrialization has also caused anti-enterprise consensus, the collapse of the middle class, hostility towards establishments, and other aftereffects. The general consensus is that unless these problems are solved, South Korea will not become an advanced country. Especially, South Korea is now facing issues that need urgent measures, such as the decline of its economic growth, the worsening distribution of profits, and the increased external volatility. Recognizing such negative trends, the MB administration proposed a win-win growth policy and recently introduced a new national value called "ecosystemic development." As the terms in such policy agenda are similar, however, the conceptual differences among such terms must first be fully understood. Therefore, in this study, the concepts of win-win growth policy and ecosystemic development, and the need for them, were surveyed, and their differences from and similarities with other policy concepts like win-win cooperation and symbiotic development were examined. Based on the results of the survey and examination, the study introduced a South Korean model of win-win growth, targeting the promotion of a sound balance between large enterprises and SMEs and an innovative ecosystem, and finally, proposing future policy tasks. Win-win growth is not an academic term but a policy term. Thus, it is less advisable to give a theoretical definition of it than to understand its concept based on its objective and method as a policy. The core of the MB administration's win-win growth policy is the creation of a partnership between key economic subjects such as large enterprises and SMEs based on each subject's differentiated capacity, and such economic subjects' joint promotion of growth opportunities. Its objective is to contribute to the establishment of an advanced capitalistic system by securing the sustainability of the South Korean economy. Such win-win growth policy includes three core concepts. The first concept, ecosystem, is that win-win growth should be understood from the viewpoint of an industrial ecosystem and should be pursued by overcoming the issues of specific enterprises. An enterprise is not an independent entity but a social entity, meaning it exists in relationship with the society (Drucker, 2011). The second concept, balance, points to the fact that an effort should be made to establish a systemic and social infrastructure for a healthy balance in the industry. The social system and infrastructure should be established in such a way as to create a balance between short- term needs and long-term sustainability, between freedom and responsibility, and between profitability and social obligations. Finally, the third concept is the behavioral change of economic entities. The win-win growth policy is not merely about simple transactional relationships or determining reasonable prices but more about the need for a behavior change on the part of economic entities, without which the objectives of the policy cannot be achieved. Various advanced countries have developed different win-win growth models based on their respective cultures and economic-development stages. Japan, whose culture is characterized by a relatively high level of group-centered trust, has developed a productivity improvement model based on such culture, whereas the U.S., which has a highly developed system of market capitalism, has developed a system that instigates or promotes market-oriented technological innovation. Unlike Japan or the U.S., Europe, a late starter, has not fully developed a trust-based culture or market capitalism and thus often uses a policy-led model based on which the government leads the improvement of productivity and promotes technological innovation. By modeling successful cases from these advanced countries, South Korea can establish its unique win-win growth system. For this, it needs to determine the method and tasks that suit its circumstances by examining the prerequisites for its success as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each advanced country. This paper proposes a South Korean model of win-win growth, whose objective is to upgrade the country's low-trust-level-based industrial structure, in which large enterprises and SMEs depend only on independent survival strategies, to a high-trust-level-based social ecosystem, in which large enterprises and SMEs develop a cooperative relationship as partners. Based on this objective, the model proposes the establishment of a sound balance of systems and infrastructure between large enterprises and SMEs, and to form a crenovative social ecosystem. The South Korean model of win-win growth consists of three axes: utilization of the South Koreans' potential, which creates community-oriented energy; fusion-style improvement of various control and self-regulated systems for establishing a high-trust-level-oriented social infrastructure; and behavioral change on the part of enterprises in terms of putting an end to their unfair business activities and promoting future-oriented cooperative relationships. This system will establish a dynamic industrial ecosystem that will generate creative energy and will thus contribute to the realization of a sustainable economy in the 21st century. The South Korean model of win-win growth should pursue community-based self-regulation, which promotes the power of efficiency and competition that is fundamentally being pursued by capitalism while at the same time seeking the value of society and community. Already existing in Korea's traditional roots, such objectives have become the bases of the Shinbaram culture, characterized by the South Koreans' spontaneity, creativity, and optimism. In the process of a community's gradual improvement of its rules and procedures, the trust among the community members increases, and the "social capital" that guarantees the successful control of shared resources can be established (Ostrom, 2010). This basic ideal can help reduce the gap between large enterprises and SMEs, alleviating the South Koreans' victim mentality in the face of competition and the open-door policy, and creating crenovative corporate competitiveness. The win-win growth policy emerged for the purpose of addressing the polarization and imbalance structure resulting from the evolution of 21st-century capitalism. It simultaneously pursues efficiency and fairness on one hand and economic and community values on the other, and aims to foster efficient interaction between the market and the government. This policy, however, is also evolving. The win-win growth policy can be considered an extension of the win-win cooperation that the past 'Participatory Government' promoted at the enterprise management level to the level of systems and culture. Also, the ecosystemic development agendum that has recently emerged is a further extension that has been presented as a national ideal of "a new development model that promotes the co-advancement of environmental conservation, growth, economic development, social integration, and national and individual development."

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.29-53
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• 2012

As so many marketers get to use diverse sales promotion methods, manufacturer and retailer in a channel often use them too. In this context, diverse issues on sales promotion management arise. One of them is the issue of unplanned buying. Consumers' unplanned buying is clearly better off for the retailer but not for manufacturer. This asymmetric influence of unplanned buying should be dealt with prudently because of its possibility of provocation of channel conflict. However, there have been scarce studies on the sales promotion management strategy considering the unplanned buying and its asymmetric effect on retailer and manufacturer. In this paper, we try to find a better way for a manufacturer in a channel to promote performance through the retailer's sales promotion efforts when there is potential of unplanned buying effect. We investigate via game-theoretic modeling what is the optimal cost sharing level between the manufacturer and retailer when there is unplanned buying effect. We investigated following issues about the topic as follows: (1) What structure of cost sharing mechanism should the manufacturer and retailer in a channel choose when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? (2) How much payoff could the manufacturer and retailer in a channel get when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? We focus on the impact of unplanned buying effect on the optimal cost sharing mechanism for sales promotions between a manufacturer and a retailer in a same channel. So we consider two players in the game, a manufacturer and a retailer who are interacting in a same distribution channel. The model is of complete information game type. In the model, the manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader and the retailer is the follower. Variables in the model are as following table. Manufacturer's objective function in the basic game is as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. And retailer's is as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+p_u(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. The model is of four stages in two periods. Stages of the game are as follows. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the first period($w_1$) and cost sharing level of channel sales promotion(${\Psi}$). (Stage 2) Retailer sets retail price of the focal brand($p_1$), the unplanned buying item($p_u$), and sales promotion level(L). (Stage 3) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the second period($w_2$). (Stage 4) Retailer sets retail price of the second period($p_2$). Since the model is a kind of dynamic games, we try to find a subgame perfect equilibrium to derive some theoretical and managerial implications. In order to obtain the subgame perfect equilibrium, we use the backward induction method. In using backward induction approach, we solve the problems backward from stage 4 to stage 1. By completely knowing follower's optimal reaction to the leader's potential actions, we can fold the game tree backward. Equilibrium of each variable in the basic game is as following table. We conducted more analysis of additional game about diverse cost level of manufacturer. Manufacturer's objective function in the additional game is same with that of the basic game as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. But retailer's objective function is different from that of the basic game as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+(p_u-c)(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. Equilibrium of each variable in this additional game is as following table. Major findings of the current study are as follows: (1) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer and retailer had better increase the cost for sales promotion. (2) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer had better decrease the cost sharing portion of total cost for sales promotion. (3) Manufacturer's profit is increasing function of the unplanned buying effect. (4) All results of (1),(2),(3) are alleviated by the increase of retailer's procurement cost to acquire unplanned buying items. The authors discuss the implications of those results for the marketers in manufacturers or retailers. The current study firstly suggests some managerial implications for the manufacturer how to share the sales promotion cost with the retailer in a channel to the high or low level of the consumers' unplanned buying potential.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.223-252
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• 2008

In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.