• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.95-100
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• 2009

Fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), a main component of forest fire weather index(FWI) in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system(CFFDRS), indicated a probability of ignition through expecting a dryness of fine fuels. According to this code, a rising of temperature and wind velocity, a decreasing of precipitation and decline of humidity in a weather condition showed a rising of a danger rate for the forest fire. In this study, we analyzed a weather condition during 5 years in Kangwon province, calculated a FFMC and examined an application of FFMC. Very low humidity and little precipitation was a characteristic during spring and fall fire season in Kangwon province. 75% of forest fires during 5 years occurred in this season and especially 90% of forest fire during fire season occurred in spring. For developing of the prediction model for a forest fire occurrence probability, we used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and classified mean FFMC during 10 days. Accuracy of a developed model was 63.6%. To improve this model, we need to deal with more meteorological data during overall seasons and to associate a meteorological condition with a forest fire occurrence with more research results.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.105-138
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• 2009

Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.566-572
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• 2016

Software Reliability implemented in software development is one of the most important issues. In finite failure NHPP software reliability models for software failure analysis, the hazard function that means a failure rate may have constant independently for failure time, non-increasing or non-decreasing pattern. In this study, software development cost analysis considering the variable shape parameter of Erlang distribution as the failure life distribution in the software product testing process was studied. The software failure model was applied finite failure Non-Homogeneous Poisson Procedure and the parameters approximation using maximum likelihood estimation was accompanied. Thus, this paper was presented comparative analysis by applying a software failure time data to the software, considering the shape parameter of Erlang distribution for development cost model analysis. When compared to the cost curve in accordance with the shape parameter, the model of smaller shape can be seen that the optimal software release time delay and more cost. Through this study, it is thought that it can serve as a preliminary information which can basically help the software developers to search for development cost according to software shape parameters.

• Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.30-43
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• 2019

This study compared the predictive models for the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in ham rice balls. In addition, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of S. aureus on ham rice balls was conducted using FDA-iRISK 4.0. The rice was rounded with chopped ham, which was mixed with mayonnaise (SHM), soy sauce (SHS), or gochujang (SHG), and was contaminated artificially with approximately $2.5{\log}\;CFU{\cdot}g^{-1}$ of S. aureus. The inoculated rice balls were then stored at $7^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, and $25^{\circ}C$, and the number of viable S. aureus was counted. The lag phases duration (LPD) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) were calculated using a Baranyi model as a primary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the polynomial equation as a function of temperature. The LPD values of S. aureus decreased with increasing temperature in SHS and SHG. On the other hand, those in SHM did not show any trend with increasing temperature. The SGR positively correlated with temperature. Equations for LPD and SGR were developed and validated using $R^2$ values, which ranged from 0.9929 to 0.9999. In addition, the total DALYs (disability adjusted life years) per year in the ham rice balls with soy sauce and gochujang was greater than mayonnaise. These results could be used to calculate the expected number of illnesses, and set the hazard management method taking the DALY value for public health into account.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.394-400
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• 2022

Background: Impacts of exposure are generally monitored and recorded after injuries or illness occur. Yet, absence of conventional after-the-effect impacts (i.e., lagging indicators), tend to focus on physical health and injuries, and fail to inform if workers are not exposed to safety and health hazards. In contrast to lagging indicators, leading indicators are proactive, preventive, and predictive indexes that offer insights how effective safety and health. The present study is to validate an extended Voluntary Protection Programs (VPP) that consists of six leading indicators. Methods: Questionnaires were distributed to 13 organizations (response rate = 93.1%, 1,439 responses) in Taiwan. Cronbach α, multiple linear regression and canonical correlation were used to test the reliability of the extended Voluntary Protection Programs (VPP) which consists of six leading indicators (safe climate, transformational leadership, organizational justice, organizational support, hazard prevention and control, and training). Criteria-related validation strategy was applied to examine relationships of six leading indicators with six criteria (perceived health, burnout, depression, job satisfaction, job performance, and life satisfaction). Results: The results showed that the Cronbach's α of six leading indicators ranged from 0.87 to 0.92. The canonical correlation analysis indicated a positive correlation between the six leading indicators and criteria (1st canonical function: correlation = 0.647, square correlation = 0.419, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The present study validates the extended VPP framework that focuses on promoting safety and physical and mental health. Results further provides applications of the extended VPP framework to promote workers' safety and health.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.255-261
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• 2014

Background: To determine the predictors of clinical outcomes following surgical descending thoracic aortic (DTA) repair. Methods: We identified 103 patients (23 females; mean age, $64.1{\pm}12.3$ years) who underwent DTA replacement from 1999 to 2011 using either deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (44%) or partial cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB, 56%). Results: The early mortality rate was 4.9% (n=5). Early major complications occurred in 21 patients (20.3%), which included newly required hemodialysis (9.7%), low cardiac output syndrome (6.8%), pneumonia (7.8%), stroke (6.8%), and multi-organ failure (3.9%). None experienced paraplegia. During a median follow-up of 56.3 months (inter-quartile range, 23.1 to 85.1 months), there were 17 late deaths and one aortic reoperation. Overall survival at 5 and 10 years was $80.9%{\pm}4.3%$ and $71.7%{\pm}5.9%$, respectively. Reoperation-free survival at 5 and 10 years was $77.3%{\pm}4.8%$ and $70.2%{\pm}5.8%$. Multivariable analysis revealed that age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 1.15; p<0.001) and left ventricle (LV) function (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.96; p<0.003) were significant and independent predictors of long-term mortality. CPB strategy, however, was not significantly related to mortality (p=0.49). Conclusion: Surgical DTA repair was practicable in terms of acceptable perioperative mortality/morbidity as well as favorable long-term survival. Age and LV function were risk factors for long-term mortality, irrespective of the CPB strategy.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.515-523
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• 2013

The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.