• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard Function

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The Clinical Application and Results of Palliative Damus-Kaye-Stansel Procedure (고식적 Damus-Kaye-Stansel 술식의 임상적 적용 및 결과)

  • Lim, Hong-Gook;Kim, Soo-Jin;Kim, Woong-Han;Hwang, Seong-Wook;Lee, Cheul;Shinn, Sung-Ho;Yie, Kil-Soo;Lee, Jae-Woong;Lee, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2008
  • Background: The Damus-Kaye-Stansel (DKS) procedure is a proximal MPA-ascending aorta anastomosis used to relieve systemic ventricular outflow tract obstructions (SVOTO) and pulmonary hypertension. The purpose of this study was to review the indications and outcomes of the DKS procedure, including the DKS pathway and semilunar valve function. Material and Method: A retrospective review of 28 patients who underwent a DKS procedure between May 1994 and April 2006 was performed. The median age at operation was 5.3 months ($13\;days{\sim}38.1\;months$) and body weight was 5.0 kg ($2.9{\sim}13.5\;kg$). Preoperative pressure gradients were $25.3{\pm}15.7\;mmHg$ ($10{\sim}60\;mmHg$). Eighteen patients underwent a preliminary pulmonary artery banding as an initial palliation. Preoperative main diagnoses were double outlet right ventricle in 9 patients, double inlet left ventricle with ventriculoarterial discordance in 6,. another functional univentricular heart in 5, Criss-cross heart in 4, complete atrioventricular septal defect in 3, and hypoplastic left heart variant in 1. DKS techniques included end-to-side anastomosis with patch augmentation in 14 patients, classical end-to-side anastomosis in 6, Lamberti method (double-barrel) in 3, and others in 5. The bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt and Fontan procedure were concomitantly performed in 6 and 2 patients, respectively. Result: There were 4 hospital deaths (14.3%), and 3 late deaths (12.5%) with a follow-up duration of $62.7{\pm}38.9$ months ($3.3{\sim}128.1$ months). Kaplan-Meier estimated actuarial survival was $71.9%{\pm}9.3%$ at 10 years. Multivariate analysis showed right ventricle type single ventricle (hazard ratio=13.960, p=0.004) and the DKS procedure as initial operation (hazard ratio=6.767, p=0.042) as significant mortality risk factors. Four patients underwent staged biventricular repair and 13 received Fontan completion. No SVOTO was detected after the procedure by either cardiac catheterization or echocardiography except in one patient. There was no semiulnar valve regurgitation (>Gr II) or semilunar valve-related reoperation, but one patient (3.6%) who underwent classical end-to-side anastomosis needed reoperation for pulmonary artery stenosis caused by compression of the enlarged DKS pathway. The freedom from reoperation for the DKS pathway and semilunar valve was 87.5% at 10 years after operation. Conclusion: The DKS procedure can improve the management of SVOTO, and facilitate the selected patients who are high risk for biventricular repair just after birth to undergo successful staged biventricular repair. Preliminary pulmonary artery banding is a safe and effective procedure that improves the likelihood of successful DKS by decreasing pulmonary vascular resistance. The long-term outcome of the DKS procedure for semilunar valve function, DKS pathway, and relief of SVOTO is satisfactory.

Application of Spatial Analysis Modeling to Evaluating Functional Suitability of Forest Lands against Land Slide Hazards (공간분석(空間分析)모델링에 의한 산지(山地)의 토사붕괴방재기능(土砂崩壞防災機能) 적합도(適合度) 평가(評價))

  • Chung, Joosang;Kim, Hyungho;Cha, Jaemin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.4
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2001
  • The objective of this study is to develop a spatial analysis modeling technique to evaluate the functional suitability of forest lands for land slide prevention. The functional suitability is classified into 3 categories of high, medium and low according to the potential of land slide on forest lands. The potential of land slide hazards is estimated using the measurements of 7 major site factors : slope, bed rock, soil depth, shape of slope, forest type and D.B.H. class of trees. The analytic hierarchical process is applied to determining the relative weight of site factors in estimating the potential of land slides. The spatial analysis modeling starts building base layers for the 7 major site factors by $25m{\times}25m$ grid analysis or TIN analysis, reclassifies them and produces new layers containing standardized attribute values, needed in estimating land slide potential. To these attributes, applied is the weight for the corresponding site factor to build the suitability classification map by map algebra analysis. Then, finally, cell-grouping operations convert the suitability classification map to the land unit function map. The whole procedures of the spatial analysis modeling are presented in this paper.

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Study of the Construction of a Coastal Disaster Prevention System using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 이용한 연안방재 시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yeon-Joong;Kim, Tae-Woo;Yoon, Jong-Sung;Kim, Myong-Kyu
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.590-596
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    • 2019
  • Numerous deaths and substantial property damage have occurred recently due to frequent disasters of the highest intensity according to the abnormal climate, which is caused by various problems, such as global warming, all over the world. Such large-scale disasters have become an international issue and have made people aware of the disasters so they can implement disaster-prevention measures. Extensive information on disaster prevention actively has been announced publicly to support the natural disaster reduction measures throughout the world. In Japan, diverse developmental studies on disaster prevention systems, which support hazard map development and flood control activity, have been conducted vigorously to estimate external forces according to design frequencies as well as expected maximum frequencies from a variety of areas, such as rivers, coasts, and ports based on broad disaster prevention data obtained from several huge disasters. However, the current reduction measures alone are not sufficiently effective due to the change of the paradigms of the current disasters. Therefore, in order to obtain the synergy effect of reduction measures, a study of the establishment of an integrated system is required to improve the various disaster prevention technologies and the current disaster prevention system. In order to develop a similar typhoon search system and establish a disaster prevention infrastructure, in this study, techniques will be developed that can be used to forecast typhoons before they strike by using artificial intelligence (AI) technology and offer primary disaster prevention information according to the direction of the typhoon. The main function of this model is to predict the most similar typhoon among the existing typhoons by utilizing the major typhoon information, such as course, central pressure, and speed, before the typhoon directly impacts South Korea. This model is equipped with a combination of AI and DNN forecasts of typhoons that change from moment to moment in order to efficiently forecast a current typhoon based on similar typhoons in the past. Thus, the result of a similar typhoon search showed that the quality of prediction was higher with the grid size of one degree rather than two degrees in latitude and longitude.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of RC Bridge Piers in Terms of Seismic Ductility (철근콘크리트 교각의 연성 능력에 따른 지진취약도)

  • Chung, Young-Soo;Park, Chang-Young;Park, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2007
  • Through lessons in recent earthquakes, the bridge engineering community recognizes the need for new seismic design methodologies based on the inelastic structural performance of RC bridge structures. This study represents results of performance-based fragility analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge. Monte carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic responses of RC bridge. Two-parameter log-normal distribution function is used to represent the fragility curves. These two-parameters, referred to as fragility parameters, are estimated by the traditional maximum likelihood procedure, which is treated each event of RC bridge pier damage as a realization of Bernoulli experiment. In order to formulate the fragility curves, five different damage states are described by two practical factors: the displacement and curvature ductility, which are mostly influencing on the seismic behavior of RC bridge piers. Five damage states are quantitatively assessed in terms of these seismic ductilities on the basis of numerous experimental results of RC bridge piers. Thereby, the performance-based fragility curves of RC bridge pier are provided in this paper. This approach can be used in constructing the fragility curves of various bridge structures and be applied to construct the seismic hazard map.

Estimating Soil Thickness in a Debris Flow using Elastic Wave Velocity (탄성파 속도를 활용한 토석류 위험지역의 표토층 두께 결정)

  • Min, Dae-Hong;Park, Chung-Hwa;Lee, Jong-Sub;Yoon, Hyung-Koo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2016
  • To estimate the stability of a debris flow it is necessary to know the mass of surface soil, cohesion, slope, and friction angle. Given that the mass of surface soil is a function of soil thickness and mass density, it is important to obtain reliable estimates of soil thickness across a wide area. The objective of this paper is to estimate soil thickness using the elastic wave velocity with a new standard velocity. Tests are performed in debris-flow hazard areas, after which four profiles are selected to obtain the elastic wave velocity. Dynamic cone penetration tests are carried out to find the soil thickness at 18 points. The elastic wave velocity shows the area consists of 3~4 layers, and soil thicknesses are predicted by utilizing the new standard. The elastic wave velocity and dynamic cone penetration tests yield large differences in soil thickness. Therefore, this study shows that the new standard is useful not only in estimating soil thickness but also in improving the reliability of estimates of soil thickness.

Factors associated with pulmonary toxicity after myeloablative conditioning using fractionated total body irradiation

  • Byun, Hwa Kyung;Yoon, Hong In;Cho, Jaeho;Kim, Hyun Ju;Min, Yoo Hong;Lyu, Chuhl Joo;Cheong, June-Won;Kim, Jin Seok;Kim, Hyo Sun;Kim, Soo-Jeong;Yang, Andrew Jihoon;Lee, Byung Min;Lee, Won Hee;Lee, Joongyo;Ahn, Ki Jung;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Pulmonary toxicities, including infectious pneumonia (IP) and idiopathic pneumonia syndrome (IPS), are serious side effects of total body irradiation (TBI) used for myeloablative conditioning. This study aimed to evaluate clinical factors associated with IP and IPS following TBI. Materials and Methods: Fifty-eight patients with hematologic malignancies who underwent TBI before allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation between 2005 and 2014 were reviewed. Most patients (91%) received 12 Gy in 1.5 Gy fractions twice a day. Pulmonary toxicities were diagnosed based on either radiographic evidence or reduced pulmonary function, and were subdivided into IP and IPS based on the presence or absence of concurrent infection. Results: Pulmonary toxicities developed in 36 patients (62%); 16 (28%) had IP and 20 (34%) had IPS. IP was significantly associated with increased treatment-related mortality (p = 0.028) and decreased survival (p = 0.039). Multivariate analysis revealed that the risk of developing IPS was significantly higher in patients who received stem cells from a matched unrelated donor than from a matched sibling donor (p = 0.021; hazard ratio [HR] = 12.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-110.30). Combining other conditioning agents with cyclophosphamide produced a higher tendency to develop IP (p = 0.064; HR = 6.19; 95% CI, 0.90-42.56). Conclusion: IP and IPS involve different risk factors and distinct pathogeneses that should be considered when planning treatments before and after TBI.

Building Damage Functions Using Limited Available Data for Volcanic Ash Loss Estimation (가용자료가 제한된 경우 화산재 피해 예측을 위한 손상함수 구축)

  • Yu, Soonyoung;Yoon, Seong-Min;Jiang, Zhuhua;Choi, Miran
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.524-535
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    • 2013
  • Catastrophe risk models require the damage functions of each vulnerable item in inventory to estimate volcanic ash losses. The damage functions are used to represent the relation between damage factors and damage and also widely used in engineering and natural hazard studies to calculate the vulnerability. In most cases, damage functions are constructed as fragility or vulnerability curves, and researchers are confused by the similarities between them particularly when they perform interdisciplinary research. Thus, we aim to explain the similarities and differences between fragility and vulnerability curves and their relationship by providing case studies to construct them. In addition, we suggest a simple method to construct the damage functions between damage ratio and volcanic ash thickness using limited damage data. This study comes from the fact that damage functions are generally constructed using damage data. However, there is no available volcanic ash damage data in Korea, and not even enough volcanic disaster data to construct damage functions in the world, compared to other hazards. Using the method suggested in the study and the limited damage data from Japan and New Zealand, we construct Weibull-type functions or linear functions dependent of available data to calculate volcanic ash loss estimation, which we think need to be corrected to make it more suitable for inventory characteristics and environmental conditions in Korea.

Establishment of location-base service(LBS) disaster risk prediction system in deteriorated areas (위치기반(LBS) 쇠퇴지역 재난재해 위험성 예측 시스템 구축)

  • Byun, Sung-Jun;Cho, Yong Han;Choi, Sang Keun;Jo, Bong Rae;Lee, Gun Won;Min, Byung-Hak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.570-576
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    • 2020
  • This study uses beacons and smartphone Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to establish a location-based disaster/hazard prediction system. Beacons are usually installed indoors to locate users using triangulation in the room, but this study is differentiated from previous studies because the system is used outdoors to collect information on registration location and temperature and humidity in hazardous areas. In addition, since it is installed outdoors, waterproof, dehumidifying, and dustproof functions in the beacons themselves are required, and in case of heat and humidity, the sensor must be exposed to the outside, so the waterproof function is supplemented with a separate container. Based on these functions, information on declining and vulnerable areas is identified in real time, and temperature/humidity information is collected. We also propose a system that provides weather and fine-dust information for the area concerned. User location data are acquired through beacons and smartphone GPS receivers, and when users transmit from declining or vulnerable areas, they can establish the data to identify dangerous areas. In addition, temperature/humidity data in a microspace can be collected and utilized to build data to cope with climate change. Data can be used to identify specific areas of decline in a microspace, and various analyses can be made through the accumulated data.

Statistical Estimation for Hazard Function and Process Capability Index under Bivariate Exponential Process (이변량 지수 공정 하에서 위험함수와 공정능력지수에 대한 통계적 추정)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Kang, Su-Mook;Park, Byoung-Sun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.449-461
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    • 2009
  • Higher sigma quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. The process capability indices and the sigma level $Z_{st}$ ave been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on statistical estimation under normal process which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider statistical estimation for bivariate VPCI(Vector-valued Process Capability Index) $C_{pkl}=(C_{pklx},\;C_{pklx})$ under Marshall and Olkin (1967)'s bivariate exponential process. First, we derive some limiting distribution for statistical inference of bivariate VPCI $C_{pkl}$. And we propose two asymptotic normal confidence regions for bivariate VPCI $C_{pkl}$. The proposed method may be very useful under bivariate exponential process. A numerical result based on our proposed method shows to be more reliable.

A Study on the Dynamic Amplification Characteristics of the Domestic Seismic Observation Sites using Shear- and Coda-Wave (S파 및 Coda파를 이용한 국내 관측소지반의 동적 증폭특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.432-439
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    • 2009
  • For more reliable estimation of seismic source, attenuation properties and dynamic ground property, site amplification function should be considered. Among various estimation methods, this study used the Nakamura's method (1989) for estimating site amplification characteristics. This method was originally applied to the surface waves of background noise and therefore there are some limitations in applying to general wave energy. However, recently this method has been extended and applied to the S wave energy successfully. This study applied the method to S wave and Coda wave energy, which is equivalent to the backscattered S wave energy. We used more than 60 observed ground motions from 5 earthquakes which were occurred recently, with magnitude range from 3.6 to 5.1. Each station showed characteristic site amplification property in low-, high- and resonance frequencies. Some of the stations showed as high as 4 times of site amplification in the range of specific frequencies, which may imply abnormal small scale geologic strata below the station or development of various trapped modes in the basin structure. Moreover, removal of site amplification can give us more reliable seismic source and attenuation parameters, addition to the seismic hazard estimation.