• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.157-176
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• 2009

This study analyzed the information factors which determine cash liquidity in Korean export-oriented companies. In this paper, cash liquidity means the ratio of the value of cash or cash equivalent to the asset value subtracted marketable securities value from total asset value. The empirical test shows that main information factors are the size of company, the growth opportunity of company, the volatility of operating cash flows and free cash flows, the credit yield spread of company, the debt ratio, the turnover ratio of cash flows and free cash flows, and the estimate of bankruptcy that amounts to the inverse number of Z score. In summary, the size of company, debt ratio, turnover ratio of cash flows and free cash flows, and Z-score have negative influence on the cash liquidity of Korean export-oriented companies. but the volatility of operating cash flows affect the cash liquidity positively.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.33-39
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• 2016

This study empirically evaluates the impact of exchange rate volatility, foreign direct investment, terms of trade, inflation, and industrial production and foreign exchange reserves on Pakistani trade volume over the period of 1975-2010 using quarterly data set. The study employs financial econometrics methods such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test GARCH (1, 1) technique and Almon Polynomial Distributed Lag (APDL) models to estimate the relationship of variables. Findings of the study are in accordance with theoretical relationships presented by Clark, Tamirisa, Wei, Sadikov, & Zeng (2004), McKenzie (1999), Dellas & Zilberfarb (1993) and Côté (1994). These findings are also in accordance with the empirical studies which support positive relationship of exchange rate volatility and exports presented by Hsu & Chiang (2011), Chit (2008), Feenstra & Kendall (1991), Esquivel & Larraín (2002) and Onafowora & Owoye (2008). Findings of the study in terms of imports are supported by the studies such as Lee (1999), Alam & Ahmad (2011) and Arize (1998). The study also recommends some very important policy prescriptions.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.537-557
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• 2005

The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.73-97
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• 2021

China has experienced many structural changes in the process of economic development over the past three decades. Using a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations, this study investigates whether such structural changes in, especially tools and operational aims of monetary policy, affect the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that impulse responses of output growth and inflation to monetary shocks have substantially increased and then reversed to decrease around 2005-2006. This time variation is mainly caused by changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, i.e., the manner in which main macroeconomic variables respond to policy shocks, rather than by changes in volatilities of exogenous shocks. The result implies that aggressive monetary policy to facilitate economic growth in the developing economies may be legitimized, unless it causes inflation seriously.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.135-157
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• 2019

The linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes are long-standing issue to both economists and monetary authorities. This paper explores the impact of asset prices on output and price in China. It focuses on the impacts of asset prices on the low quantiles of GDP gap and high quantiles of price gaprespectively. The main findings are the following: the influence of stock price gap, stock returns, and money growth on the different quantile of GDP gap and price gap are noticeable different, and there are significant impacts on the left tail of GDP gap distribution and on the right tail of price gap distribution. This implies that the results coming from simple regression will underestimate the economic risk imposed by asset price volatility. Moreover, these results also provide the caveat that one should cautiously distinguish the meaning of asset price gap and asset price growth rate and use them, through their contents are similar in some sense. One implication for monetarypolicy is that authority should interpret the relationship between asset prices and macro-economy in wider perspectives, and make the policy decision taking the impacts of asset prices on the tails of economy.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.192-199
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to examine the growth trends and volatility of exports in Asia, North America, Europe, Central and South America, Middle East and Africa since 2010. And analyze the correlation and model analysis to find out future directions of development. As a result of the analysis, it showed high export share in Asia, North America, Europe, Central and South America, Middle East and Africa. Asia, North America, Europe showed a relatively high rate of increase in exports and the month-on-month rate of change was stable in Asia and North America. In order to increase our exports through this research, we should pay much attention to export improvement to Asia, North America and Europe. Especially, Asia's exports account for more than 50%, so it seems necessary to plan export enhancement to China, Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Taiwan and India. Although the proportion of exports is not large yet, much attention needs to be paid to new markets in Central and South America, the Middle East and Africa. And I look forward to systematic progress in export promotion.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.61-72
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• 2011

This study suggests a DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) based model to evaluate the value of corporate stock. The model integrating PER(Price-Earning Ratio), PBR(Price-BookValue Ratio), PSR(Price-Sales Ratio) and volatility in DEA structure has an advantage of overcome the limitation of traditional financial ratio based models. In order to show the effectiveness of the suggested model. we compare the performance of portfolio composed by DEA approach with those of portfolios made by traditional approaches such as PER, PBR, and PSR in terms of stock return and volatility. Specifically, we use the data of all the enterprises listed on the S&P 500 in the U.S. in 2007 and 2009 as the sample data for the experiments. The results of the experiments show that the performance of the DEA approach is clearly better than those of other approaches. Particularly, in sharply plummeting market, the performance of the DEA approach is shown to be prominently better than those of other approaches as the DEA approach reflects investment risk as well as profitability and growth. The DEA score combining the existing investment indices may serve as a useful barometer for selecting a stable and profitable portfolio.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.455-475
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• 2009

According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.25-43
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• 2002

This study focuses on the factors that make the financing decision of private hospitals in Korea. Data used in this study were collected from 98 hospitals with complete general data of current status as well as financial statements. They were chosen from the 138 hospitals that passed the accreditation process by the Korean Hospital Association from 1996 to 2000 for the purpose of accrediting training hospitals. The dependent variables in this study consist of total liabilities to total assets, borrowings to total assets. The independent variables are ownership, hospital type, teaching status, location, bed size, period of establishment, asset structure, profitability, growth, tax shields, volatility of profit, competition(market concentration), and other factors. The major findings of this study are as follows. The factors found to have significant effect on liabilities to total assets are teaching status(-), asset structure(-), profitability(-), tax shields(+), and business risk(-). University hospitals have less liabilities than the non-university hospitals. It was also confirmed that high profitability, high fixed asset, high volatility of profit and low tax shields results in decrease in liabilities. The factors that significantly affect on borrowings to total assets are teaching status(-), period of establishment(-), volatility of profit(-) and competition(+).