• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.17-35
• /
• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
• /
• v.35 no.3
• /
• pp.159-172
• /
• 2019

Madhupur National Park (MNP) is one of the last remaining patches of old-growth natural Sal forest left in Bangladesh where the forest is tropical moist deciduous type. A study was revealed to assess the tree species diversity and composition in this area. For determining tree species the study was conducted through extensive random quadrat survey methods with $20m{\times}20m$ sized plots. Results of the study indicated that there were 139 tree species belonging to 100 genera and 40 families. The quadrat survey assessed the basal area, stem density, diversity indices and importance value index of the tree species having ${\geq}5cm$ D.B.H (Diameter at Brest Height). The basal area and stem density of the tree species were $20.689{\pm}1.08m^2/ha$ and $1412.93{\pm}64.27stem\;ha^{-1}$ while, diversity indices, i.e. Shannon-Wiener's diversity, Simpson's evenness, Margalef's species richness and Pielou's dominance indices indicated poor diversity in comparison to that of other PAs (Protected Areas) in South-Eastern region of Bangladesh. The structural composition based on height and D.B.H through reverse-J shaped curve indicated higher regeneration and recruitment but removal of trees of large growth classes. Sal (Shorea robusta) was the most dominant tree species that accounts 75% of the total tree individuals in the natural forest patches. However, some associates of Sal, i.e. Bhutum (Hymenodictyon orixensis), Gadila (Careya arborea), and Kusum (Schleichera oleosa) etc. were seemed to be rare in MNP.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2009.05b
• /
• pp.429-433
• /
• 2009

Since the "Low Carbon, Green Growth" as a social requirements is attracted public attention, the policies and investments of the railway which have been less estimated than road is re-considered. Since the starting the commercial service (2004. April), the KTX have been operated successfully while transport passengers over 100million for years. And also the project for development of KHST (Korea High Speed Train ; G7) had been accomplished with a good result, the first trainset of KTX-II which base on G7 project was manufactured and testing now. On the other hand, the world's technology of the high speed train is more faster, and changing to a distributed traction system. To catch up the world's leading technology, the HEMU(High-speed Electric Multiple Unit) project will secure new technology and aims to promote the technology of domestic high-speed train. The authors indicates the result of detail review such as a curve, slope of the track and electrical dead section of the catenary to test at 400kph and also the performance simulation of the developed rolling stock in this paper. As the result, the authors devise the test scenario to perform a maximum speed test (stability at max. speed, acceleration & deceleration etc) with the restricted conditions such as track length, track available time etc by considering above result.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.449-455
• /
• 1991

The water striders, gerris paludum insularis larvae which were fed with the drosophila melanogaster cultured on the appli diet and artificial diet, were reared in the growth cabinet controlled as the two constant temperature regimes of 25 c and 30 c under the condition of photoperiod 16l : 8d, light intensity 510 240 lux, relative humidity 65 3%, and in the natural state. The effects of temperature and diet on the devolopment of g. paludum insularis were analyzed and the results were summarized as follows. 1. The total developmental period of the water strider larvae fed with the d. melanogaster reared on the apple diet at the natural stste was the longest 40 days, and the total devopmental periods at 25 c and 30 c were 35 days and 27 days respectively. The tolal developmental period of larvae fed with d. melanogaster reared on the artifical diet at 25 c was the longest 42 dats, and the total developmental periods at natural stste and 30 c were 32 days and 27 days, respectively. 2. In the larval developmental stages, the fifth stage was longer than that of any stage. The duration of egg stage which was not influenced by diet at 25 c was the longest. 3. The water strider larvae fed which the d. melanogaster reared on the artificial diet at 25 c did not complete their devolopment. 4. No significant difference was odserved in the developmentperiod for diet at 30 c. but, there were significant differences in developmental periods for diet at 25 c and natural state. 5. The rate of adult emergence on the apple diet was higher than that of the artificial diet was higher than of the artificial diet. 6. The shapes of the survivorship curve were convex-curve. 7. The development periods of the larval stages of water striders might be affected to temperature and diet dependently.

• The Journal of Bigdata
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.193-212
• /
• 2022

The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.1315-1323
• /
• 1999

The antimicrobial effects of ethanol and organic acids(acetic, citric, lactic. propionic, tartaric acid), either alone or in combination against four foodborne microorganisms (Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella typhimurium, Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli O157:H7) in tryptic soy broth were determined. Area under the growth curve, minimum generation time, maximum growth rate, and detection time were measured by using automated turbidometer Bioscreen(Labsystem, Finland), for 24 hr at $30^{\circ}C$. All microorganisms were not grown at 7% ethanol in the media. The 0.1% propionic acid showed the strongest inhibitory effects against S. aureus, L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157 : H7 compared with other organic acids, whereas 0.01% organic acids did not show significant inhibitory effect against microorganisms tested (p > 0.01) except S. aureus. The combination of 1% ethanol and 0.01% organic acids were significantly more effective than alone on growth of S. aureus and L. monocytogenes(p < 0.01).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.2053-2058
• /
• 2013

Background: Formation of new blood vessels is necessary for the development and spread of neoplasms more than 1 mm3 in volume, angiogenesis being responsible for formation of new from pre-existing blood vessels. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is pivotal and the best studied angiogenic factor in all human cancers. Therefore we designed this study to investigate the role of VEGF-A and VEGF-C in prostate cancer in comparison with BPH controls in a north Indian population. Methods: In this case-control study a total of 100 subjects were included on the basis of confirmed histopathological reports, out of which 50 were prostate cancer patients and the other 50 were BPH patients with PSA levels >2 ng/ml and abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE) findings during September 2009 to August 2011 from the Department of Urology, KGMU, Lucknow, India. Plasma levels of VEGF were determined using quantitative immunoassay (ELISA-enzyme linked immunosorbent assay). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS 15.0 version. Results: The mean age of prostate cancer ($67.6{\pm}5.72$) patients was significantly higher (p=0.005) than BPH ($63.6{\pm}7.92$) patients. Expression of VEGF-A was not significantly higher in disease stage C1 than D1 or D2 and A or B (p=0.13) while the level of VEGF-A was significantly higher (p=0.04) in prostate cancer as compared to BPH subjects (PCa=13.0 pg/ml, BPH=6.8 pg/ml). Levels of VEGF-C were similar in both groups (PCa=832.6 pg/ml, BPH=823.7 pg/ml). In ROC curve, the area under curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95%CI: 0.60-0.80) and the cut-off value for which a higher proportion of patients was correctly classified (20%) was 26.0 pg/mL. Conclusion: Although VEGF-A is increased in cancer prostate patients a statistically significant correlation could not be established in this study. VEGF-C was not found to be a useful biomarker.

• Journal of Science Education
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2010

This study analyzes the factors influencing academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject and its change in Korean youth by using a sample from KYPS(Korea Youth Panel Survey) data. The results are as follows: First, academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of Korean youth shows quadratic curve that their interrelationship between intercept and slope of academic achievement are negative which is statistically significant. Second, analysis of Latent Growth Models shows that parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks are found to be a statistically significant factor on mathematic. And scientific subject is affected by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. Also, Interesting finding is that father's job is not significant to dependent variables. These findings show that academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of the Korean youth are the quadratic curve and influenced by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. To improve youth's mathematic and scientific, Korea educational fields and educators should have policy to care youth's relationship with parents, teachers and self esteem.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
• /
• v.30 no.5
• /
• pp.959-963
• /
• 2001

To investigate the antimicrobial effects of Scutellariae Radix extract against L.monocytogenes from foods, L. monocytogenes strains isolated from livestock, processed food from meat and milk, and frozen foods, were examined for their sensitivity to Scutellariae Radix extract. 30 L. monocytogenes strains were isolated from total 178 samples(16.9%); 13(14.0%) strains from beef 6(20.7%) strains from pork, 9(39.2%) strains from chicken and 2 (16.7%) strains from frozen foods but was not found from processed products, The serotypes of isolated L.monocytogenes were serotype O-1 strains (23, 76.7%) and serotype O-4 strains(7, 23.3%) on antisera agglutination test. The growth curves of isolates were shown lag phase, logarithmic phase, stationary phase and death phase as typical sigmoid curve on the preservative-free hams. After 6 hours. Scutellariae Radix extract contain group differ from control group on preservative-free ham samples, and the isolates were inhibited in more than 1000 ppm Scutellariae Radix extract on the inhibitory growth curve of L.monocytogenes. The mor-phological changes were observed by transmission electron microscope and the microbial cells membrane was destroyed by Scutellariae Radix extract.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
• /
• v.8 no.4A
• /
• pp.470-475
• /
• 1999

ZnS and ZnTe epilayers were grown on GaAs(100) GaP(100) substrates by hot-wall eitaxy. X-ray diffraction revealed that the epilayers have zinc-blende structure and were grown in (100) direction. The small values of the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of double crystal rocking curve (DCRC) showed high quality of the epilayers. From the thickness dependence of the FWHM of DCRC, the strain remaining in films is found to be due to the thermal expansion difference as well as due to the lattice mismatch.