• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ground Speed Prediction

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Development of a Carbon Emission Prediction Model for Bulk Carrier Based on EEDI Guidelines and Factor Interpretation Using SHAP

  • Hyunju Kim;Byeongseok Yu;Donghyun Kim
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.66-79
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    • 2024
  • The model developed in this study holds significant importance in predicting carbon emissions in maritime transport. By utilizing ship data and EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) guidelines, the model presents a highly accurate prediction tool, providing a solid foundation for maximizing operational efficiency and effectively managing carbon emissions in ship operations. The model's accuracy was demonstrated by an R2 score of 0.95 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.4%. Through SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), it was identified that Speed Over Ground and relative wind speed are the most significant variables, both showing a positive correlation with increased CO2 emissions. Additionally, environmental factors such as exceeding an average draft of 22(m), a Leeway over 5°, and a current angle exceeding 200° were found to increase emissions significantly. Specific ranges of wind and swell wave angles also notably affected emissions. Conversely, lower pitch, roll, and rudder angle were associated with reduced emissions, indicating that stable ship operation enhances efficiency.

Evaluation on Effectiveness of Rail Grinding by Prediction of Rail Fatigue Life (레일 피로수명 예측에 따른 레일 연마의 효용성 평가)

  • Kim, Man-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2008
  • The importance of maintenance of rail surface defects is increasing according to the KTX operation. That is because during high speed operation of rolling stocks, rail surface defects shorten fatigue life of rail, accelerate track degradation and deteriorate ride comfort. Rail grinding has been applied for effective rail maintenance in Kyeong-Bu HS line. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of rail grinding in term of rail fatigue life. To this end, the stresses of the ground rail are measured under KTX running and the equivalent stress range is calculated by RMC after the frequency analysis done with Rainflow counting method. Also, Pamglen-Miner rule is applied to predict the fatigue life of ground rail. The result of the analysis shows that the fatigue life of ground rail is increased by 15%.

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Reconstruction Analysis of Vehicle-pedestrian Collision Accidents: Calculations and Uncertainties of Vehicle Speed (차량-보행자 충돌사고 재구성 해석: 차량 속도 계산과 불확실성)

  • Han, In-Hwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.82-91
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, a planar model for mechanics of a vehicle/pedestrian collision incorporating road gradient is derived to evaluate the pre-collision speed of vehicle. It takes into account a few physical variables and parameters of popular wrap and forward projection collisions, which include horizontal distance traveled between primary and secondary impacts with the vehicle, launch angle, center-of-gravity height at launch, distance from launch to rest, pedestrian-ground drag factor, the pre-collision vehicle speed and road gradient. The model including road gradient is derived analytically for reconstruction of pedestrian collision accidents, and evaluates the vehicle speed from the pedestrian throw distance. The model coefficients have physical interpretations and are determined through direct calculation. This work shows that the road gradient has a significant effect on the evaluation of the vehicle speed and must be considered in accident cases with inclined road. In additions, foreign/domestic empirical cases and multibody dynamic simulation results are used to construct a least-squares fitted model that has the same structure of the analytical one that provides an estimate of the vehicle speed based on the pedestrian throw distance and the band within which the vehicle speed would be expected to be in 95% of cases.

Comparison of the noise map using Nord2000 according to the criteria for railway vehicle classification (Nord2000의 철도차량 분류기준에 따른 소음지도 결과 비교)

  • Lim, Hyeong-Jun;Park, Jae-Sik;Ham, Jung-Hoon;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.618-626
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    • 2011
  • Recent development of related technologies and efficient utilization of the entire country for the purpose of railway construction, and plans are being accelerated. the railway noise has been improved by increasing the high speed railway station, and accelerating the existing trains. Nord2000 which is an overseas noise prediction equation could not be applied directly to the domestic railway vehicles. So the specific vehicles in the Nordic countries which is a similar specification to domestic trains should be selected. Nord2000's accuracy was compared to Schall03, CRN's. Prediction of Ground impedance and Roughness class were carried out at different. In this paper, the result of selected vehicles for Nord2000 was as follows. S-1aX2 was for express trains, N-$^*2c$-3b was for Mugunghwa, S-Pass/wood was for Saemaul, N-4a was for freight trains, N-3a was for subway, the calculation time for Nord2000 took longer than others, in addition, Ground absorption was indispensable to calculate a noise map for Nord2000. As a result, CRN's prediction noise levels at Wonju-si was closest to the measurements. However, the predicted noise levels of Nord2000 was the most accurate.

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Effect of RMR and rock type on tunnel drilling speed (RMR과 암석종류가 터널 천공속도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hae-Mahn;Lee, In-Mo;Hong, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.561-571
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    • 2019
  • Drilling and charging of the blast holes during NATM tunneling works take more than 30% of construction time among the whole tunneling work process. Prediction of ground condition ahead of tunnel face has been studied by several researchers by correlating percussion pressure and drilling speed during tunneling work with the ground condition and/or RMR values. However, most of the previous researches were conducted in the granite rock condition which is the most representative igneous rock in the Korean peninsula. In this study, drilling speeds in igneous rocks were analyzed and compared with those in sedimentary rocks (most dominantly composed of conglomerates, sandstones, and shales) under the similar RMR ranges; it was identified that the drilling speed is pretty much affected by rock types even in a similar RMR range. Under the similar RMR values, the drilling speed was faster in sedimentary rocks compared with that in igneous rock. Moreover, while the drilling speed was not much affected by change of the RMR values in igneous rocks, it became faster in sedimentary rocks as the RMR values got lower.

Evaluation and Improvement of the KMAPP Surface Wind Speed Prediction over Complex Terrain Areas (복잡 지형 지역에서의 KMAPP 지상 풍속 예측 성능 평가와 개선)

  • Keum, Wang-Ho;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Doo-Il;Lee, Sang-Sam;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2021
  • The necessity of accurate high-resolution meteorological forecasts becomes increasing in socio-economical applications and disaster risk management. The Korea Meteorological Administration Post-Processing (KMAPP) system has been operated to provide high-resolution meteorological forecasts of 100 m over the South Korea region. This study evaluates and improves the KMAPP performance in simulating wind speeds over complex terrain areas using the ICE-POP 2018 field campaign measurements. The mountainous measurements give a unique opportunity to evaluate the operational wind speed forecasts over the complex terrain area. The one-month wintertime forecasts revealed that the operational Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) has systematic errors over the complex mountainous area, especially in deep valley areas, due to the orographic smoothing effect. The KMAPP reproduced the orographic height variation over the complex terrain area but failed to reduce the wind speed forecast errors of the LDAPS model. It even showed unreasonable values (~0.1 m s-1) for deep valley sites due to topographic overcorrection. The model's static parameters have been revised and applied to the KMAPP-Wind system, developed newly in this study, to represent the local topographic characteristics better over the region. Besides, sensitivity tests were conducted to investigate the effects of the model's physical correction methods. The KMAPP-Wind system showed better performance in predicting near-surface wind speed during the ICE-POP period than the original KMAPP version, reducing the forecast error by 21.2%. It suggests that a realistic representation of the topographic parameters is a prerequisite for the physical downscaling of near-ground wind speed over complex terrain areas.

Development of Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model using the Unified Model output (UM-Road) (UM 자료를 이용한 노면온도예측모델(UM-Road)의 개발)

  • Park, Moon-Soo;Joo, Seung Jin;Son, Young Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2014
  • A road surface temperature prediction model (UM-Road) using input data of the Unified Model (UM) output and road physical properties is developed and verified with the use of the observed data at road weather information system. The UM outputs of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, downward shortwave radiation, net longwave radiation, precipitation and the road properties such as slope angles, albedo, thermal conductivity, heat capacity at maximum 7 depth are used. The net radiation is computed by a surface radiation energy balance, the ground heat flux at surface is estimated by a surface energy balance based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity, the ground heat transfer process is applied to predict the road surface temperature. If the observed road surface temperature exists, the simulated road surface temperature is corrected by mean bias during the last 24 hours. The developed UM-Road is verified using the observed data at road side for the period from 21 to 31 March 2013. It is found that the UM-Road simulates the diurnal trend and peak values of road surface temperature very well and the 50% (90%) of temperature difference lies within ${\pm}1.5^{\circ}C$ (${\pm}2.5^{\circ}C$) except for precipitation case.

Prediction of long-term wind speed and capacity factor using Measure-Correlate-Predict method (측정-상관-예측법을 이용한 장기간 풍속 및 설비이용률의 예측)

  • Ko, Kyung-Nam;Huh, Jong-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2012
  • Long-term variations in wind speed and capacity factor(CF) on Seongsan wind farm of Jeju Island, South Korea were derived statistically. The selected areas for this study were Subji, having a year wind data at 30m above ground level, Sinsan, having 30-year wind data at 10m above ground level and Seongsan wind farm, where long-term CF was predicted. The Measure-Correlate-Predict module of WindPRO was used to predict long-tem wind characteristics at Seongsan wind farm. Eachyear's CF was derived from the estimated 30-year time series wind data by running WAsP module. As a result, for the 30-year CFs, Seongsan wind farm was estimated to have 8.3% for the coefficien to fvariation, CV, and-16.5% ~ 13.2% for the range of variation, RV. It was predicted that the annual CF at Seongsan wind farm varied within about ${\pm}4%$.

Study on Performance Prediction of Electric Propulsion System for Multirotor UAVs (멀티로터 무인항공기의 전기추진계통 성능예측에 대한 연구)

  • Jeong, Jinseok;Byun, Youngseop;Song, Woojin;Kang, Beomsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.499-508
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    • 2016
  • This paper describes a study of performance prediction of an electric propulsion system for multirotor UAVs. The electric propulsion system consists of motors, propellers, batteries and speed controllers, and significantly affects performance characteristics of the platform. The performance of the electric propulsion system for multirotor UAVs was predicted using an analytical model derived from the characteristics of each component, operation experiments and statistical analyses. Ground performance tests and endurance flights were performed to verify the reliability of the proposed performance prediction method. A quadrotor platform was designed to demonstrate the parcel delivery service used in the endurance flight. From the result of verification tests, it was confirmed that the proposed method has a good agreement.

Prediction of the Environmental Noise Level of Railway Cars Crossing a Concrete Bridge (콘크리트교를 지나는 철도 차량의 환경 소음 예측 연구)

  • Jang, Seungho
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2015
  • In the conventional model for the prediction of the railway environmental noise, one used an empirical formula of the total noise level at specific distances. Only a function of the distance to the source was also used to calculate the noise level near the railway bridges. However, the noise varies depending on the position of the receiver as well as the distance from the source especially at concrete bridges. In this paper, a noise propagation model in the railway concrete bridge was derived by considering the diffraction at the bridge deck and the ground effect and applying the ISO 9613-2 noise propagation model. We compared the predicted and measured values of environmental noise at a high-speed railway bridge, and it was confirmed that this prediction model gives relatively small errors.