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A Machine Learning Univariate Time series Model for Forecasting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: A Pilot Study in Botswana

  • Mphale, Ofaletse;Okike, Ezekiel U;Rafifing, Neo
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2022
  • The recent outbreak of corona virus (COVID-19) infectious disease had made its forecasting critical cornerstones in most scientific studies. This study adopts a machine learning based time series model - Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana over 60 days period. Findings of the study show that COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana are steadily rising in a steep upward trend with random fluctuations. This trend can also be described effectively using an additive model when scrutinized in Seasonal Trend Decomposition method by Loess. In selecting the best fit ARIMA model, a Grid Search Algorithm was developed with python language and was used to optimize an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) metric. The best fit ARIMA model was determined at ARIMA (5, 1, 1), which depicted the least AIC score of 3885.091. Results of the study proved that ARIMA model can be useful in generating reliable and volatile forecasts that can used to guide on understanding of the future spread of infectious diseases or pandemics. Most significantly, findings of the study are expected to raise social awareness to disease monitoring institutions and government regulatory bodies where it can be used to support strategic health decisions and initiate policy improvement for better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

가상 환경에서의 딥러닝 기반 폐색영역 검출을 위한 데이터베이스 구축 (Construction of Database for Deep Learning-based Occlusion Area Detection in the Virtual Environment)

  • 김경수;이재인;곽석우;강원율;신대영;황성호
    • 드라이브 ㆍ 컨트롤
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2022
  • This paper proposes a method for constructing and verifying datasets used in deep learning technology, to prevent safety accidents in automated construction machinery or autonomous vehicles. Although open datasets for developing image recognition technologies are challenging to meet requirements desired by users, this study proposes the interface of virtual simulators to facilitate the creation of training datasets desired by users. The pixel-level training image dataset was verified by creating scenarios, including various road types and objects in a virtual environment. Detecting an object from an image may interfere with the accurate path determination due to occlusion areas covered by another object. Thus, we construct a database, for developing an occlusion area detection algorithm in a virtual environment. Additionally, we present the possibility of its use as a deep learning dataset to calculate a grid map, that enables path search considering occlusion areas. Custom datasets are built using the RDBMS system.

Enhanced CNN Model for Brain Tumor Classification

  • Kasukurthi, Aravinda;Paleti, Lakshmikanth;Brahmaiah, Madamanchi;Sree, Ch.Sudha
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2022
  • Brain tumor classification is an important process that allows doctors to plan treatment for patients based on the stages of the tumor. To improve classification performance, various CNN-based architectures are used for brain tumor classification. Existing methods for brain tumor segmentation suffer from overfitting and poor efficiency when dealing with large datasets. The enhanced CNN architecture proposed in this study is based on U-Net for brain tumor segmentation, RefineNet for pattern analysis, and SegNet architecture for brain tumor classification. The brain tumor benchmark dataset was used to evaluate the enhanced CNN model's efficiency. Based on the local and context information of the MRI image, the U-Net provides good segmentation. SegNet selects the most important features for classification while also reducing the trainable parameters. In the classification of brain tumors, the enhanced CNN method outperforms the existing methods. The enhanced CNN model has an accuracy of 96.85 percent, while the existing CNN with transfer learning has an accuracy of 94.82 percent.

Classification method for failure modes of RC columns based on key characteristic parameters

  • Yu, Bo;Yu, Zecheng;Li, Qiming;Li, Bing
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제84권1호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2022
  • An efficient and accurate classification method for failure modes of reinforced concrete (RC) columns was proposed based on key characteristic parameters. The weight coefficients of seven characteristic parameters for failure modes of RC columns were determined first based on the support vector machine-recursive feature elimination. Then key characteristic parameters for classifying flexure, flexure-shear and shear failure modes of RC columns were selected respectively. Subsequently, a support vector machine with key characteristic parameters (SVM-K) was proposed to classify three types of failure modes of RC columns. The optimal parameters of SVM-K were determined by using the ten-fold cross-validation and the grid-search algorithm based on 270 sets of available experimental data. Results indicate that the proposed SVM-K has high overall accuracy, recall and precision (e.g., accuracy>95%, recall>90%, precision>90%), which means that the proposed SVM-K has superior performance for classification of failure modes of RC columns. Based on the selected key characteristic parameters for different types of failure modes of RC columns, the accuracy of SVM-K is improved and the decision function of SVM-K is simplified by reducing the dimensions and number of support vectors.

Form-finding of lifting self-forming GFRP elastic gridshells based on machine learning interpretability methods

  • Soheila, Kookalani;Sandy, Nyunn;Sheng, Xiang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제84권5호
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    • pp.605-618
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    • 2022
  • Glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) elastic gridshells consist of long continuous GFRP tubes that form elastic deformations. In this paper, a method for the form-finding of gridshell structures is presented based on the interpretable machine learning (ML) approaches. A comparative study is conducted on several ML algorithms, including support vector regression (SVR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), AdaBoost, XGBoost, category boosting (CatBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM). A numerical example is presented using a standard double-hump gridshell considering two characteristics of deformation as objective functions. The combination of the grid search approach and k-fold cross-validation (CV) is implemented for fine-tuning the parameters of ML models. The results of the comparative study indicate that the LightGBM model presents the highest prediction accuracy. Finally, interpretable ML approaches, including Shapely additive explanations (SHAP), partial dependence plot (PDP), and accumulated local effects (ALE), are applied to explain the predictions of the ML model since it is essential to understand the effect of various values of input parameters on objective functions. As a result of interpretability approaches, an optimum gridshell structure is obtained and new opportunities are verified for form-finding investigation of GFRP elastic gridshells during lifting construction.

복합적인 실내 환경 내 신뢰성 있는 자율 비행을 위한 3차원 장애물 지도 생성 및 경로 계획 알고리즘 (3D Costmap Generation and Path Planning for Reliable Autonomous Flight in Complex Indoor Environments)

  • 김보성;이승욱;박재용;심현철
    • 로봇학회논문지
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.337-345
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose a 3D LiDAR sensor-based costmap generation and path planning algorithm using it for reliable autonomous flight in complex indoor environments. 3D path planning is essential for reliable operation of UAVs. However, existing grid search-based or random sampling-based path planning algorithms in 3D space require a large amount of computation, and UAVs with weight constraints require reliable path planning results in real time. To solve this problem, we propose a method that divides a 3D space into several 2D spaces and a path planning algorithm that considers the distance to obstacles within each space. Among the paths generated in each space, the final path (Best path) that the UAV will follow is determined through the proposed objective function, and for this purpose, we consider the rotation angle of the 2D space, the path length, and the previous best path information. The proposed methods have been verified through autonomous flight of UAVs in real environments, and shows reliable obstacle avoidance performance in various complex environments.

기계학습을 이용한 염화물 확산계수 예측모델 개발 (Development of Prediction Model of Chloride Diffusion Coefficient using Machine Learning)

  • 김현수
    • 한국공간구조학회논문집
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2023
  • Chloride is one of the most common threats to reinforced concrete (RC) durability. Alkaline environment of concrete makes a passive layer on the surface of reinforcement bars that prevents the bar from corrosion. However, when the chloride concentration amount at the reinforcement bar reaches a certain level, deterioration of the passive protection layer occurs, causing corrosion and ultimately reducing the structure's safety and durability. Therefore, understanding the chloride diffusion and its prediction are important to evaluate the safety and durability of RC structure. In this study, the chloride diffusion coefficient is predicted by machine learning techniques. Various machine learning techniques such as multiple linear regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, extreme gradient boosting annd k-nearest neighbor were used and accuracy of there models were compared. In order to evaluate the accuracy, root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used as prediction performance indices. The k-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of machine learning models when making predictions on data not used during training. Grid search was applied to hyperparameter optimization. It has been shown from numerical simulation that ensemble learning methods such as random forest and extreme gradient boosting successfully predicted the chloride diffusion coefficient and artificial neural networks also provided accurate result.

콘크리트 탄산화 및 열효과에 의한 경년열화 예측을 위한 기계학습 모델의 정확성 검토 (Accuracy Evaluation of Machine Learning Model for Concrete Aging Prediction due to Thermal Effect and Carbonation)

  • 김현수
    • 한국공간구조학회논문집
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2023
  • Numerous factors contribute to the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Elevated temperatures significantly alter the composition of the concrete ingredients, consequently diminishing the concrete's strength properties. With the escalation of global CO2 levels, the carbonation of concrete structures has emerged as a critical challenge, substantially affecting concrete durability research. Assessing and predicting concrete degradation due to thermal effects and carbonation are crucial yet intricate tasks. To address this, multiple prediction models for concrete carbonation and compressive strength under thermal impact have been developed. This study employs seven machine learning algorithms-specifically, multiple linear regression, decision trees, random forest, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural networks, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms-to formulate predictive models for concrete carbonation and thermal impact. Two distinct datasets, derived from reported experimental studies, were utilized for training these predictive models. Performance evaluation relied on metrics like root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. The optimization of hyperparameters was achieved through k-fold cross-validation and grid search techniques. The analytical outcomes demonstrate that neural networks and extreme gradient boosting algorithms outshine the remaining five machine learning approaches, showcasing outstanding predictive performance for concrete carbonation and thermal effect modeling.

경년열화를 고려한 전단벽 구조물의 기계학습 기반 지진응답 예측모델 개발 (Development of Machine Learning Based Seismic Response Prediction Model for Shear Wall Structure considering Aging Deteriorations)

  • 김현수;김유경;이소연;장준수
    • 한국공간구조학회논문집
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2024
  • Machine learning is widely applied to various engineering fields. In structural engineering area, machine learning is generally used to predict structural responses of building structures. The aging deterioration of reinforced concrete structure affects its structural behavior. Therefore, the aging deterioration of R.C. structure should be consider to exactly predict seismic responses of the structure. In this study, the machine learning based seismic response prediction model was developed. To this end, four machine learning algorithms were employed and prediction performance of each algorithm was compared. A 3-story coupled shear wall structure was selected as an example structure for numerical simulation. Artificial ground motions were generated based on domestic site characteristics. Elastic modulus, damping ratio and density were changed to considering concrete degradation due to chloride penetration and carbonation, etc. Various intensity measures were used input parameters of the training database. Performance evaluation was performed using metrics like root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. The optimization of hyperparameters was achieved through k-fold cross-validation and grid search techniques. The analysis results show that neural networks and extreme gradient boosting algorithms present good prediction performance.

방사선량률 예측을 위한 기계학습 기반 모델 개발 및 최적화 연구 (Machine Learning Based Model Development and Optimization for Predicting Radiation)

  • 이시현;이홍연;염정민
    • 방사선산업학회지
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.551-557
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, radiation has become a socially important issue, increasing the need for accurate prediction of radiation levels. In this study, machine learning-based models such as Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and LightGBM, which predict the dose rate by time(nSv h-1) by selecting only important variables, were used, and the correlation between temperature, humidity, cumulative precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, local air pressure, sea pressure, solar radiation, and radiation dose rate (nSv h-1) was analyzed by collecting weather data and radiation dose rate for about 6 months in Jangseong, Jeollanam-do. As a result of the evaluation based on the RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and R-Squared (R-Squared coefficient of determination) scores, the RMSE of the XGBoost model was 22.92 and the R-Squared was 0.73, showing the best performance among the models used. As a result of optimizing hyperparameters of all models using the GridSearch method and comparing them by adding variables inside the measuring instrument, it was confirmed that the performance improved to 2.39 for RMSE and 0.99 for R-Squared in both XGBoost and LightGBM.