• Title/Summary/Keyword: Granger Causality

Search Result 284, Processing Time 0.042 seconds

The Effects of Expected Rate for Housing Sale Price on Jeonse Price Ratio - Focused on Markets in Seoul - (매매가격에 대한 기대상승률이 전세가격비율에 미치는 영향 - 서울시를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ji-Young;Ahn, Jeong-Keun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
    • /
    • v.45 no.2
    • /
    • pp.203-216
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study focuses on the relationship between housing sale prices and Jeonse prices, amid a recent surge of Jeonse price and Jeonse-to-housing sale price ratio. There are many studies about the relationship between house prices and Jeonse, but they couldn't fully explain what makes them spike up. In addition to this relationship, this paper deals with the difference of Jeonse system on regions and price levels. Using Granger causality and Spearman's Correlation Coefficient, the outcome is drawn. As the result, the expected rate for housing sale prices effects on the Jeonse-to-housing sale price ratio. The higher on sale price, the lower the Jeonse-to-housing sale price ratio regarding the region difference.

The Role of Venture Capital in the Creation of New Venture Firms: Time-series Analysis in the Context of South Korean Industries (창업투자회사의 벤처 기업 창출 기여에 관한 시계열 분석)

  • Kim, Taekyung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.101-108
    • /
    • 2014
  • The creation of new venture firm has been regarded as a key of creating more job opportunities and discovering new value engines for various industries. It is positively expected that venture capitals play an important role of supporting the process. Nevertheless, there is a scant of research efforts to analyze empirical data for understanding cross-correlations between investment of venture capital and new venture foundation. To fill the gap, this study investigated sets of time-series data from 1998 to 2014 in the context of South Korean economy. The results reveal that venture capitals have contributed significantly to the quantitative increase of venture firms. In addition, the findings show that the creation of new venture fails to yield a direct impact on resolving young unemployment problems in short term. The paper contributes to the research community on new venture foundation by providing insightful views.

  • PDF

A Study on the Co-movement of Stock Returns Between Korean Digital Contents Industry Market and Foreign Market (디지털컨텐츠산업의 해외 주식시장 동조화 연구)

  • Wi Han-Jong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.6 no.8
    • /
    • pp.78-85
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study examined the stock return co-movement among Korean digital contents industry, American NASDAQ, and Japanese NIKKEI225. This is to identify the reaction of Korean digital contents industry on the movement of foreign stock market. To investigate the co-movements, during the period of 1999 to 2005, daily logarithm difference returns of each stock market indices are tested by the methodology of Granger(1963, 1969)'s causality test. The positive influence from NASDAQ index to Korean digital contents industry index are found, but not vice versa. It means that the market value of firms in Korean digital contents industry affected by the movement of American NASDAQ market which composite with digital IT firms. However, the co-movements with NIKKEI225 did not found.

  • PDF

Time Series Analysis on the Endogeneity between Quality of Internet Banking System and Business Performances of Banks (인터넷뱅킹시스템의 품질과 은행의 영업성과 간 내생성에 대한 시계열 분석)

  • Shim, Seonyoung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.169-193
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study investigates time series data on internet banking systems and business performances for 5 large-scale banks : Kookmin, Woori, Hana, City, Shinhan. These banks have the common features that they merged with other banks around 2000, hence they experienced massive IS integration between banks. This study adopted VAR and VECM for identifying Granger causality between the quality of internet banking systems and the performances of banks(operating revenue and cost). The main results are as follows. First, internet banking system impacts positively on the revenues as well as costs of banks. Second, the improvement of internet banking system is instigated by cost part more than revenue part. Hence, the results imply that banks tries to reduce operating costs via internet banking systems, however the systems rather increased the costs of banks, although the systems increased operating revenues of banks too.

A Study on the Seoul Apartment Jeonse Price after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 in the Frame of Vecter Auto Regressive Model(VAR) (VAR분석을 활용한 금융위기 이후 서울 아파트 전세가격 변화)

  • Kim, Hyun-woo;Lee, Du-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.16 no.9
    • /
    • pp.6315-6324
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

Forecasting of Iron Ore Prices using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 철광석 가격 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Woo Chang;Kim, Yang Sok;Kim, Jung Min;Lee, Choong Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.57-72
    • /
    • 2020
  • The price of iron ore has continued to fluctuate with high demand and supply from many countries and companies. In this business environment, forecasting the price of iron ore has become important. This study developed the machine learning model forecasting the price of iron ore a one month after the trading events. The forecasting model used distributed lag model and deep learning models such as MLP (Multi-layer perceptron), RNN (Recurrent neural network) and LSTM (Long short-term memory). According to the results of comparing individual models through metrics, LSTM showed the lowest predictive error. Also, as a result of comparing the models using the ensemble technique, the distributed lag and LSTM ensemble model showed the lowest prediction.

Analysis on the Relationship between the San-Nong Expenditure and 'Quality of Life' of Rural Residents in China (중국의 삼농(三農)지출과 농촌주민 '삶의 질'간 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Sup
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.237-250
    • /
    • 2016
  • This paper is to explore the relationship between the San-Nong expenditure and Quality of life of rural residents in China for the period of 1978-2013, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, VAR model, and VECM. The results of a study on the relationship between two variables show that an obvious mutually causal relationship exits between the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) and gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery(apro) in China. But the case of per capita ploor space of newly built residential buildings in rural area(rho) and per capita consumption expenditure of rural households(rli) show that the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) press for improvement in the quality of life of rural residence, while rho and rli have not yet apparent effect to san. On the other hand, It showed that the financial expenditure for San-Nong(san) and the number of medical personnel(prdo) do not have a causal relationship with each other. Therefore, the government needs to find ways for a variety of San-Nong expenditure to improve the quality of life of rural residents.

A Study on the Interrelationship of Trade, Investment and Economic Growth in Myanmar: Policy Implications from South Korea's Economic Growth

  • Oo, Thunt Htut;Lee, Keon-Hyeong
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.146-170
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper addresses the concepts of FDI-Trade-Growth nexus in Myanmar's economy and empirically investigates the interrelationships of trade, investment and economic growth to reveal the growth model of Myanmar's economy. Additionally, this paper also addresses the cooperative strategies between Myanmar and South Korea through a case study related to South Korea's economic growth. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the interrelationship among FDI, trade, growth, labor force and inflation in Myanmar. This study employs ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to conduct an analysis of the FDI-Trade-Growth relationships using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 and a conducted case study of South Korea provided for practical implication on cooperative strategies between Myanmar and Korea. Findings - Export equation was chosen through the diagnostic tests. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Export in Myanmar is positively influenced by labor force, FDI, capital formation and negatively impacted by import and instable inflation rate in the long run. In the short run, GDP and import positively influence export. The Granger causality test proves that Myanmar is an FDI/labor force-led Growth economy, where FDI and labor force are main drivers of export followed by GDP in Myanmar. The case study of South Korea provided that Korea's tax and credit system for promoting export-led FDI industries and cooperative units for joint ventures between Korea and Myanmar in export-led FDI industries are recommended. Originality/value - No study has yet to be conducted on the interrelationships of macroeconomic factors from the perspectives of FDI-Trade-Growth Nexus in Myanmar under the assumption of labor force and inflation rate as fundamental conditions. The current study also covered a relatively longer period of time series data from 1970 to 2016. This paper also conducts a case study of South Korea's experience in order to evaluate the findings and provide better policy implications.

A Comparison of Predictive Power among Forecasting Models of Monthly Frozen Mackerel Consumer Price Models (냉동 고등어 소비자가격 모형 간 예측력 비교)

  • Jeong, Min-Gyeong;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.52 no.4
    • /
    • pp.13-28
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.

Causal Effect from IT Capital in the US Computer and Electronic Products Industry: Value Added Increase or Labor Decrease (미국 전자산업에서 IT자본의 효과: 부가가치 창출 또는 근로자의 감소)

  • Sangho Lee
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.121-135
    • /
    • 2020
  • Since many researchers were interested in measuring the performance of information technology investment, many studies have been conducted with various data sources and analysis methods, and most studies report that IT investment produces significant and positive results. Many of these studies have been conducted at the enterprise level, but different results may occur at the industry level. In the case of the electronics industry, if the performance of the IT highly increases, the sales of the IT produced in the electronics industry may decrease, and the added value of the electronics industry may also decrease. As a result of analysis, the increase in the IT capital of the US electronic industry did not increase the added value of the industry, but the increase in IT capital per worker in the industry had a positive effect on the increase in value added per worker (labor productivity) in the industry. In addition, the increase in IT capital in the US electronics industry has resulted in a decrease in the number of workers.