• Title/Summary/Keyword: Gradient method

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Effect of Trace Elements in Alcohol Beverages on the Type of Radiation-induced Cell Death (인체 임파구세포에서 X-선 조사에 의한 세포사의 형태에 주정성분이 미치는 영향)

  • Sohn, Jong-Gi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • Developments of radioprotective agents are important issues for minimizing the troubles and the effective treatments in radiotherapy. But few agents are useful in clinical and practical fields. It was shown that trace elements in alcohol beverages might have radioprotective effect. In this study, the types of cell death of lymphocytes according to the commercial alcohol beverage was investigated. Normal healthy volunteers ingested distilled water, beer or soju containing $81.5mg{\cdot}dl^{-1}$ ethyl ahcohol, respectively. After 2 hours, their blood were sampled with their consents. Fraction of lymphocytes was isolated by density gradient method with Histopaque-1077 (Sigma) and irradiated with dose from 0.5 to 5 Gy. After 60 hour incubation, the cells were harvested and analysed by flow cytometry. Cell viability was decreased by dose dependent manner. Cell viability of beer group was reduced about 15% compared with control group. Apoptosis in soju group was reduced about 20% compared with control group. Apoptosis of beer and control groups are similar. Necrosis of soju group significantly increased about 35% compared with control group. Early apoptosis of beer group was increased compared with control group. Early apoptosis of soju group was decreased about 25% compared with control group. Late apoptosis of beer and control group was increased by dose dependent manner. Late apoptosis of soju group was increased about 20-30% compared with control group. Late apoptosis of soju was increased and the radioprotective effect of soju was minimal because late apoptosis induced the cell necrosis. In case of soju trace elements, total cell apoptosis was decreased about 20% and early cell apoptosis was remarkably low. In this case, mitotic cells death may be dominant mechanism. Therefore, trace elements in soju may not be effective radioprotective agents.

Simultaneous Determination and Mornitoring of Aflatoxin and Ochratoxin A in Food (식품 중 아플라톡신과 오크라톡신 A의 동시분석법 개발 및 모니터링)

  • Park, Ji-Won;Yoo, Myung-Sang;Kuk, Ju-Hee;Ji, Young-Ae;Lee, Jin-Ha
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2013
  • The simultaneous analysis and monitoring of aflatoxin $B_1$, $G_1$, $B_2$, $G_2$ and ochratoxin A in foods were carried out by HPLC with fluorescence detection. The samples were extracted with methanol/water mixture. The extract was centrifuged, diluted with phosphate buffer saline (PBS), filtered, and applied to an immunoaffinity column containing antibodies specific to both aflatoxins and ochratoxin A. After washing the column with PBS and water, the toxins were eluted from the column with methanol, and quantified by HPLC, with a run time of approximately 30 min. The recoveries for aflatoxin $B_1$, $G_1$, $B_2$, $G_2$ and ochratoxin A in foods were 78.4~101.5%, 73.3~102.1%, 81.7~106.7%, 67.0~104.6% and 78.7~120.8%, respectively. The limits of detection of aflatoxins and ochratoxin A ranged from 0.05 to $0.18{\mu}g/kg$. According to monitoring result with the established method, aflatoxin $B_1$ and ochratoxin A were found in 13 of 151 domestic commercial foods. The contamination levels were $0.32{\sim}1.80{\mu}g/kg$ for aflatoxin $B_1$ and $0.97{\mu}g/kg$ for ochratoxin A. Therefore, this study showed all commercial foods monitored were safe under the Korean standards for aflatoxins and ochratoxin A.

Optimization of the Flip Angle and Scan Timing in Hepatobiliary Phase Imaging Using T1-Weighted, CAIPIRINHA GRE Imaging

  • Kim, Jeongjae;Kim, Bong Soo;Lee, Jeong Sub;Woo, Seung Tae;Choi, Guk Myung;Kim, Seung Hyoung;Lee, Ho Kyu;Lee, Mu Sook;Lee, Kyung Ryeol;Park, Joon Hyuk
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was designed to optimize the flip angle (FA) and scan timing of the hepatobiliary phase (HBP) using the 3D T1-weighted, gradient-echo (GRE) imaging with controlled aliasing in parallel imaging results in higher acceleration (CAIPIRINHA) technique on gadoxetic acid-enhanced 3T liver MR imaging. Materials and Methods: Sixty-two patients who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced 3T liver MR imaging were included in this study. Four 3D T1-weighted GRE imaging studies using the CAIPIRINHA technique and FAs of $9^{\circ}$ and $13^{\circ}$ were acquired during HBP at 15 and 20 min after intravenous injection of gadoxetic acid. Two abdominal radiologists, who were blinded to the FA and the timing of image acquisition, assessed the sharpness of liver edge, hepatic vessel clarity, lesion conspicuity, artifact severity, and overall image quality using a five-point scale. Quantitative analysis was performed by another radiologist to estimate the relative liver enhancement (RLE) and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Statistical analyses were performed using the Wilcoxon signed rank test and one-way analysis of variance. Results: The scores of the HBP with an FA of $13^{\circ}$ during the same delayed time were significantly higher than those of the HBP with an FA of $9^{\circ}$ in all the assessment items (P < 0.01). In terms of the delay time, images at the same FA obtained with a 20-min-HBP showed better quality than those obtained with a 15-min-HBP. There was no significant difference in qualitative scores between the 20-min-HBP and the 15-min-HBP images in the non-liver cirrhosis (LC) group except for the hepatic vessel clarity score with $9^{\circ}$ FA. In the quantitative analysis, a statistically significant difference was found in the degree of RLE in the four HBP images (P = 0.012). However, in the subgroup analysis, no significant difference in RLE was found in the four HBP images in either the LC or the non-LC groups. The SNR did not differ significantly in the four HBP images. In the subgroup analysis, 20-min-HBP imaging with a $13^{\circ}$ FA showed the highest SNR value in the LC-group, whereas 15-min-HBP imaging with a $13^{\circ}$ FA showed the best value of SNR in the non-LC group. Conclusion: The use of a moderately high FA improves the image quality and lesion conspicuity on 3D, T1-weighted GRE imaging using the CAIPIRINHA technique on gadoxetic acid, 3T liver MR imaging. In patients with normal liver function, the 15-min-HBP with a $13^{\circ}$ FA represents a feasible option without a significant decrease in image quality.

The Effect on Pulmonary Indices of Surfactant Therapy for Meconium Aspiration Syndrome: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (태변흡인증후군에서 폐표면활성제 사용이 호흡기지표에 미치는 영향에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰과 메타분석)

  • Choi, Hyun-Jin;Hahn, Seo-Kyung;Lee, Soon-Min;Kim, Han-Suk;Bae, Chong-Woo
    • Neonatal Medicine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Surfactants have been used to improve oxygenation for infants with meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). We evaluated the change of pulmonary indices after surfactant therapy for MAS through a systematic meta-analysis. Methods: Relevant randomized controlled studies (RCTs) were identified by database searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, up to June 2011, and by additional hand searches. Data were extracted regarding pulmonary indices, such as the oxygen index and arterial alveolar oxygen gradient. Meta-analyses were separately conducted for the studies of surfactant lavage therapy and surfactant bolus therapy. The risk of bias was assessed, and clinical as well as statistical heterogeneities were also investigated. Results: Two RCTs for bolus surfactant therapy and two RCTs for surfactant lavage therapy were identified. The oxygenation index results were heterogeneous between the two studies in which bolus surfactant therapy was given, while a/A $PO_2$ showed significantly better results in the treatment group over time after use of surfactant (12 hours: WMD 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12; 24 hours: WMD 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.28). For surfactant lavage therapy, both studies consistently suggested an interventional benefit in terms of the pulmonary indices although it did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: Surfactant therapy appeared to improve oxygenation of infants with MAS. Since a limited number of RCTs are available in the current literature and those studies were also clinically heterogeneous in terms of illness severity and the method of surfactant use, further research is needed to gather evidence to support surfactant therapy in MAS.

Long-term Results of Modified Lecompte Procedure for the Anomalies of Ventriculoarterial Connection (심실대혈관 연결 이상에 대한 변형된 Lecompte 술식의 장기 성적)

  • 임홍국;한국남;김웅한;이정렬;노준량;김용진
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.727-734
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    • 2004
  • The Lecompte procedure for transposition of the great arteries has an advantage because it obviates the need for an extracardiac conduit for the reconstruction of the pulmonary outflow tract. We evaluated the effectiveness and the application of the Lecompte procedure. Material and Method: A retrospective review was conducted of the records of 46 patients who underwent the Lecompte procedure during the past 15 years. Mean age at operation was 29.2$\pm$20.3 (range: 3∼83) months. The diagnoses involved anomalies of the ventriculoarterial connection with ventricular septal defect and pulmonary outflow tract obstruction, such as transposition of the great arteries, double-outlet right ventricle, and double-outlet left ventricle. Result: Early mortality was 4.4% (2 of 46 patients) and late mortality was 6.8% (3 of 44). The mean follow-up was 11.2$\pm$6.9 years. Eighteen patients (43.9% of survivors, n=41) had pulmonary stenosis (pressure gradient above 30 mmHg), the main reason for which was a calcified monocusp valve (n=15, 83.3%). Seventeen of 46 patients (37.0%) underwent reoperation: 15 for pulmonary stenosis, 5 for residual ventricular septal defect, 4 for left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, 3 for pulmonary insufficiency, and 4 for other causes. The cumulative survival rates were 91.3$\pm$4.2%, and 87.0$\pm$5.8% at 10 and 15 years, respectively. The actuarial probabilities of freedom from reoperation for pulmonary stenosis were 90.6$\pm$4.5%, 73.9$\pm$7.3%, and 54.0$\pm$10.4% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Conclusion: The Lecompte procedure is an effective treatment modality. Repair in early age is possible with acceptable morbidity and mortality, but recurrent right ventricular outflow tract obstruction caused by degeneration of the monocusp valve is a problem that needs resolution.

Mid- and Long Term Outcome of Fontan Procedure: Extracardiac Conduit Fontan versus Lateral Tunnel Fontan (폰탄 술식의 중장기 성적: 심장외 도관 술식과 가측터널 술식의 비교)

  • Kwak, Jae-Gun;Kim, Dong-Jung;Kim, Yong-Jin
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.805-810
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    • 2007
  • Background: This paper reviews our experience retrospectively to examine the clinical results and effectiveness of lateral tunnel (LT) and extracardiac conduit (ECC) Fontan procedures at a single institution. Material and Method: One hundred and sixty five Fontan procedures were performed (67 LT and 98 ECC) between January 1996 and December 2006. Preoperative and postoperative hemodynamic values, arrhythmia, hospital and intensive care unit stay, chest tube drain, morbidity and mortality were reviewed. Result: The overall operative mortality in the LT and ECC groups was 4.5% (3) and 2.0% (2), respectively. There was a significant difference in the immediate postoperative transpulmonary gradient (LT $8.5{\pm}2.5$ vs ECC $6.6{\pm}2.4$, p-value<0.001) and central venous pressure (LT $18.3{\pm}3.8$ vs ECC $15.6{\pm}2.4$, p-value=0.001) between the two groups. The mean follow-up in the LT and ECC groups was $74.1{\pm}31.5$ and $38.1{\pm}29.1$ months, respectively. There was one late death. The actuarial survival at 10 years in the LT and ECC groups was 92% and 89%, respectively. In arrhythmia, the ECC patients showed a slightly low incidence but the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Both the LT and ECC Fontan procedures showed comparable early and mid-term outcomes in terms of the surgical morbidity and mortality, postoperative hemodynamics, and mid-term survival. The ECC Fontan procedure reduces the risk of arrhythmia in the follow up period.

Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay for the Detection of Antibody to Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus (효소면역법에 의한 닭 전염성 기관지염 바이러스 항체검사)

  • 송현제;최정옥
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.183-196
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    • 1991
  • In order to establish ELISA method to detect antibody against IBV various factors involved were examined. Antigen was prepared from Massachusetts type IBV which is known to be one of serotypes distributed most widely. The virus was grown in embryonated SPF chicken eggs. Allantoic fluid harvested was processed to ultracentrifugation and sucrose density gradient centrifugation to produce a purified antigen The antisera selected from the field samples based on hemagglutination inhibition test were used as the standard positive and negative sera for this study and the results obtained were summarized as follows. 1 , It was found that ELISA test was satisfactory when the purified antigen was coated on the plate in the amount of about 40ng protein per well. In case of the phospholipase treated hemagglutinating antigen it gave satisfactory results when the each well wns coated with 1.2 to 2.5 hemagglutinating unit which was equivalent to 40 to 90ng of protein. 2. There was no significant difference in the ratio of optical density of positive to that of negative serum whether the coated antigen was held for 1 hour at 37$^{\circ}C$ or it was held overnight at 4$^{\circ}C$. The coated antigen could be kept in dried state without change of antigenecity for at least one month of experimental period at 4$^{\circ}C$. 3. There was a big variation in the optical density and P/N values depending on the maker of the plates and on the plate of the same maker. 4. It was found that background optical density was negligible when serum was diluted more than 1:50 and serum dilution of 1:100 appeared to be appropriate as a routine test dilution to screen the antibody. 5. Optical density was fairly constant 15 minutes afterward from the time substrate was treated and during the 4 hours after stopper was treated. 6. There was a low correlation(r=0.42) between ELISA and HI test. However, when 74serum samples were tested for the IBV antibody, 98.7% were found to be positive by both tests in which titers of 2$^{6}$ or more by HI test and P/N values of 1.4 or more by ELISA were considered to be positive, 7 Day-old IBV vaccinated chickens shows a similar antibody decay and rising pattern until 8 weeks of age by the two tests, ELISA and HI.

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Geochemistry of Total Gaseous Mercury in Nan-Ji-Do, Seoul, Korea (난지도 지역의 대기수은 지화학)

  • Kim, Min-Young;Lee, Gang-Woong;Shin, Jae-Young;Kim, Ki-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.611-622
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    • 2000
  • To investigate the exchange rates of mercury(Hg) across soil-air boundary, we undertook the measurements of Hg flux using gradient technique from a major waste reclamation site, Nan-Ji-Do. Based on these measurement data, we attempted to provide insights into various aspects of Hg exchange in a strongly polluted soil environment. According to our analysis, the study site turned out to be not only a major emission source area but also a major sink area. When these data were compared on hourly basis over a full day scale, large fluxes of emission and deposition centered on daytime periods relative to nighttime periods. However, when comparison of frequency with which emission or deposition occurs was made, there emerged a very contrasting pattern. While emission was dominant during nighttime periods, deposition was most favored during daytime periods. When similar comparison was made as a function of wind direction, it was noticed that there may be a major Hg source at easterly direction to bring out significant deposition of Hg in the study area. To account for the environmental conditions controlling the vertical direction of Hg exchange, we compared environmental conditions for both the whole data group and those observed from the wind direction of strong deposition events. Results of this analysis indicated that the concentrations of pollutant species varied sensitively enough to reflect the environmental conditions for each direction of exchange. When correlation analysis was applied to our data, results indicated that windspeed and ozone concentrations best reflected changes in the magnitudes of emission/deposition fluxes. The results of factor analysis also indicated the possibility that Hg emission of study area is temperature-driven process, while that of deposition is affected by a mixed effects of various factors including temperature, ozone, and non-methane HCs. If the computed emission rate is extrapolated to the whole study area we estimate that annual emission of Hg from the study area can amount to approximately 6kg.

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Ten Years Experiences of ATS Mechanical Valve (ATS 기계 판막의 10년 임상경험)

  • Yi, Gi-Jong;Bae, Mi-Kyung;Lim, Sang-Hyun;Yoo, Kyung-Jong;Chang, Byung-Chul;Hong, You-Sun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.12 s.269
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    • pp.891-899
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    • 2006
  • Background: This study is to evaluate the safety of ATS valve by examining the clinical results of ten-years experience. Material and Method: From July 1995 to March 2005, we reviewed 305 patients with ATS valve implantation. Mean age was $49.8{\pm}11.7$ years and 140(45.6%) males were included. Etiologies were rheumatic diseases in 207 cases(67.4%), degenerative changes in 57 cases(18.6%), valve dysfunction in 23 cases(7.5%) and infective endocarditis in 14 cases(4.6%). AVR was performed in 72 patients(23.5%), MVR in 156 patients (50.8%), DVR(AVR+MVR) in 63 patients(20.5%) and TVR in 16 patients(5.2%). Result: There were 9 operative mortalities(2.9%). Follow up period was $56.5{\pm}34.0(0{\sim}115)$ months and 96.4% patients were followed up with 9 late deaths. Five and ten years survival rates were $94.9{\pm}1.3%,\;91.2{\pm}2.3%$ using Kaplan-Meier's methods. Valve related event free survival rates in 5 and 10 years were $90.8{\pm}2.0%$ and $86.9{\pm}3.2%$. There were 16 anticoagulation-related hemorrhages, 6 thromboembolisms, 3 prosthetic valve endocarditis and 1 paravalvular leakage. NYHA class improved after operation(p<0.05). Postoperative echocardiography showed significant decrease in LA size, LVEDD and IVESD(p<0.01). Patients with 19 and 21 mm valve showed significantly higher transvalvular pressure gradient in aortic position(p<0.001, p<0.001). Conclusion: ATS valve showed good hemodynamic results with few valve related complications and thus can be used with acceptable risk.