• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.310-316
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• 2023

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.391-395
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• 2023

우리 앞에는 상상할 수 없이 많은 가능성이 놓여있다. 이로 인해, 미래예측이 어렵지만 예측 자체가 무의미한것은 아니다. 다양한 가능성들을 예측함으로써 우발상황에 대처할 수 있는 유연성을 가질 수 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 한국의 인구 분야에 대한 극단적 사건(X-events)을 탐색하기 위해 진행되었다. 이를 위해, 정부 및 공공 부문의 비상계획관 32명을 대상으로 심층 인터뷰를 실시했고, 이를 토대로 인구 감소, 고령화 등의 인구 문제가 경제, 국방등의 다양한 분야에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 유의미한 연구결과를 도출했다. 본 연구를 계기로 우리 사회에 일어날 수 있는 극단적 사건에 대한 논의와 토의가 더욱 활성화되길 기대한다.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.64-75
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• 2018

A status of air traffic controller is a government officer and air traffic controllers who work at airport are divided by duty rating and work experience. Abiding by law, rules and regulation, air traffic controllers are working together based on mutual trust. This paper's theoretical background is based on cultural bias theory. The theory divide people group into four groups according to cultural bias such as fatalism, hierarchy, individualism and egalitarianism. A research model was designed how such four cultural bias could affect air traffic controller's risk response in case of emergency or abnormal situation during their work. Depend on empirical research, it was found that air traffic controllers perceived they had been more biased to fatalism than hierarchy. The characteristics of fatalism group are as follows: first of all, they follow rigid rules and regulation. However, they have less self-efficacy compared to other government officers. According to structural equation model, air traffic controller's fatalism had a significant negative effect on organizational royalty. Their royalty, however, had a very significant positive effect on planning response and immediate response.