• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.359-372
• /
• 2016

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for acute stroke mortality that were based on data from Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) dataset and to evaluate the validity of these models for comparing hospital performance. Methods: We identified prognostic factors of acute stroke mortality through literature review. On the basis of the avaliable data, the following factors was included in risk adjustment models: age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity, and comorbid conditions. Survey data in 2014 was used for development and 2012 dataset was analysed for validation. Prediction models of acute stroke mortality by stroke type were developed using logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated using C-statistics, $R^2$ values, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics. Results: We excluded some of the clinical factors such as mental status, vital sign, and lab finding from risk adjustment model because there is no avaliable data. The ischemic stroke model with age, sex, and stroke severity (categorical) showed good performance (C-statistic=0.881, Hosmer-Lemeshow test p=0.371). The hemorrhagic stroke model with age, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity (categorical) also showed good performance (C-statistic=0.867, Hosmer-Lemeshow test p=0.850). Conclusion: Among risk adjustment models we recommend the model including age, sex, stroke severity, and stroke subtype for HIRA assessment. However, this model may be inappropriate for comparing hospital performance due to several methodological weaknesses such as lack of clinical information, variations across hospitals in the coding of comorbidities, inability to discriminate between comorbidity and complication, missing of stroke severity, and small case number of hospitals. Therefore, further studies are needed to enhance the validity of the risk adjustment model of acute stroke mortality.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.279-288
• /
• 2003

Objectives : Evidence for an effect of rerroductive factors on colorectal carcinogenesis is not yet consistent. Little research has been conducted to investigate whether reproductive factors were associated with colorectal adenomas that are the precursors of colorecta1 cancer, We evaluated the relationships between reproductive factors and the degree of dysplasia of the colorectal adenoma and cancer as colorectal adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Methods : For this study, 241 adenoma cases with histopathologically confirmed incident colorectal adenoma, 76 cancer cases with colorectal cancer and 1677 controls were collected from Our Lady of Mercy Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea, during 1994-1999. Before colonoscopy, information on demographic characteristics, reproductive factors, life style habits and dietary intake were obtained by interviewed questionnaire. Adjusted OR and 95% CI were estimated by using polytomous logistic regression model, Potential confounders that were selected based on the goodness of fit Statistics and interaction between risk factors were considered in this adjustment. The Wald statistic was calculated to test the heterogeneity of the odds ratios for each case. Results .: Postmenopausal women with natural menopause were found to be positively associated with the risk of mild dysplasia adenoma (multivariate-adjusted OR : 2.59, 95% CI=1.1-0.2). Parity was found to be negatively associated with the risk of colorectal lancer (age-adjusted OR : 0.40, 95% CI=0.2-0.9), but did not significantly decrease the risk of colorectal cancer (multivariate-adjusted OR : 0.95, 95% CI=0.3-2.9). Me associations were seen between a9e at menarche, breast feeding, induced abortion, oral contraceptive use, menopausal types, menopausal age or hormone replacement therapy (HRT and the degree of dysplasia of the colorectal adenoma and cancer. However, none of these associations differed' significantly between the degree of dysplasia of the colorectal adenoma and cancer. Conclusions : These findings suggest that postmenopausal women with natural menopause may experience increased risk of mild dysplasia adenorna among colorectal adenoma-carcinoma sequence.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
• /
• v.54 no.2
• /
• pp.88-98
• /
• 2021

Background: This study aimed to develop a new risk prediction model for operative mortality in a Korean cohort undergoing heart valve surgery using the Korea Heart Valve Surgery Registry (KHVSR) database. Methods: We analyzed data from 4,742 patients registered in the KHVSR who underwent heart valve surgery at 9 institutions between 2017 and 2018. A risk prediction model was developed for operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery or during the same hospitalization. A statistical model was generated with a scoring system by multiple logistic regression analyses. The performance of the model was evaluated by its discrimination and calibration abilities. Results: Operative mortality occurred in 142 patients. The final regression models identified 13 risk variables. The risk prediction model showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.805 and calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.630. The risk scores ranged from -1 to 15, and were associated with an increase in predicted mortality. The predicted mortality across the risk scores ranged from 0.3% to 80.6%. Conclusion: This risk prediction model using a scoring system specific to heart valve surgery was developed from the KHVSR database. The risk prediction model showed that operative mortality could be predicted well in a Korean cohort.