• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.219-225
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• 2014

Gompertz modeling은 고령화 사회에 접어들기 시작하며 노령인구 예측에 성공적인 결과를 보여줌으로써 최근 많은 주목을 받고 있다. 또한 항암 치료제의 독성으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 부작용을 미연에 방지하고자 보다 효과적인 치료제의 사용에 관한 의료 생체분야에서 활발한 개발이 시도되어 왔으나 전임상 및 임상실험으로의 응용이 가능한 모델링은 극히 제한적이며, 모델링의 검증을 위한 생체실험의 분석 시스템의 최적화가 힘들다는 한계가 있다. 본 논문에서는 Gompertz modeling을 응용하여 새로운 겸형적혈구의 약물유출 예측시스템을 개발하고, 여기된 광증감제의 겸형적혈구 부착을 통해 효과적인 약물유출 제어방법을 ex-vivo 실험을 통해 검증하여 최적화된 예측 시스템의 결과를 비교 분석 할 수 있었다. 따라서 이와 같이 최적화된 Gompertz modeling을 이용한 새로운 약물전달 시스템이 항암치료에 반영된다면 부작용에 기인한 환자들의 신체적 고통과 치료를 위한 경제적 부담을 경감시키는 효과를 유도하며, 나아가 항암 치료제의 정확한 전달률을 증가시켜 보다 효과적인 항암치료를 기대할 수 있다.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.395-404
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• 2017

Cultivating soybeans in rice paddy field reduces labor costs and increases the yield. Soybeans, however, are highly susceptible to excessive soil water in paddy field. Controlled drainage system can adjust groundwater level (GWL) and control soil moisture content, resulting in improvement soil environments for optimum crop growth. The objective of this study was to fit the soybean growth data (canopy height and stem diameter) using Gompertz model and Logistic model at different GWL and validate those models. The soybean, Daewon cultivar, was grown on the lysimeters controlled GWL (20cm and 40cm). The soil textures were silt loam and sandy loam. The canopy height and stem diameter were measured from the 20th days after seeding until harvest. The Gompertz and Logistic models were fitted with the growth data and each growth rate and maximum growth value was estimated. At the canopy height, the $R_2$ and RMSE were 0.99 and 1.58 in Gompertz model and 0.99 and 1.33 in Logistic model, respectively. The large discrepancy was shown in full maturity stage (R8), where plants have shed substantial amount of leaves. Regardless of soil texture, the maximum growth values at 40cm GWL were greater than the value at 20cm GWL. The growth rates were larger at silt loam. At the stem diameter, the $R_2$ and RMSE were 0.96 and 0.27 in Gompertz model and 0.96 and 0.26 in Logistic model, respectively. Unlike the canopy height, the stem diameter in R8 stage didn't decrease significantly. At both GWLs, the maximum growth values and the growth rates at silt loam were all larger than the values at sandy loam. In conclusion, Gompertz model and Logistic model both well fit the canopy heights and stem diameters of soybeans. These growth models can provide invaluable information for the development of precision water management system.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.192-200
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• 2021

In the mid of the December 2019, the virus has been started to spread from China namely Corona virus. It causes fatalities globally and WHO has been declared as pandemic in the whole world. There are different methods which can fit such types of values which obtain peak and get flattened by the time. The main aim of the paper is to find the best or nearly appropriate modeling of such data. The three different models has been deployed for the fitting of the data of Coronavirus confirmed patients in Pakistan till the date of 20^th November 2020. In this paper, we have conducted analysis based on data obtained from National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and produced a forecast of COVID-19 confirmed cases as well as the number of deaths and recoveries in Pakistan using the Logistic model, Gompertz model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model. The fitted models revealed high exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in Pakistan.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2016

하이테크 제품 중에서 이동통신 단말기는 빠른 속도로 혁신이 이루어지고 있으며 이에 따라 제품수명주기도 짧아지고 있다. 이렇게 짧아진 제품수명주기를 정확히 예측하기 위해서는 정확한 수요예측방법론의 선택이 중요하며 이는 전략적 경영계획 수립에 가장 기본적인 요소라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 이동통신 단말기의 전체 확산 수명에 적용될 수 있는 최적의 모형을 제시하는 것이다. 우리는 2013년 3월부터 2014년 8월까지 국내 특정 이동통신 서비스 사업자의 이동통신 단말기 판매 데이터를 활용하여 이동통신 단말기의 판매추이 및 수요예측을 위한 최적의 모형을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 네 가지 모형의 성능을 비교분석하였는데 두 가지 S자형 확산모형인 Gompertz와 logistic 모형, 두 가지 비선형 회귀모형인 Michaelis-Menten과 logarithmic 모형을 비교한다. 모형 적합도에 따르면 logistic 모형이 모형일치성에 있어서 다른 세 개의 모형보다 성능이 우수한 것으로 발견되었으며 수요예측모델로는 확산이 정체하기 전까지는 logistic 모형이 우수하며 포화단계에 근접할수록 Gompertz 모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 이동통신 단말기 시장 규모를 추정하거나 이동통신 단말기의 재고 및 주문관리를 하는데 있어서 유용한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2012년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.953-954
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• 2012

• 한국식물병리학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.331-338
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• 1998

To develop the model for prediction of potato late blight progress, the relationship between severity index of potato late blight transformed by the logit and Gompit transformation function and cumulative severity value (CSV) processing weather data during growing period in Taegwallyeong alpine area, 1975 to 1992 were examined. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by determining goodness of fit for progressive degree of late blight using CSV as independent variable, the coefficients of determination were higher as 0.742 in the logistic model than 0.680 in the Gompertz model. Parameters in logistic model were composed of progressive rate and initial value of logistic model. Initial value was calculated in -3.664. The progressive rate of potato late blight was 0.137 in cv. Superior, 0.136 in cv. Irish Cobbler, and 0.070 in cv. Jopung without fungicide sprays. According to in crease of the number of spray times the progressive rate was lowered, was 0.020 in cv. Superior under the conventional program of fungicide sprays, 10 times sprays during cropping season. Equation of progressive rate, b1=0.0088 ACSV-0.033 (R2=0.976), was written by examining the relationship between the parameters of progressive rate of late blight and the average CSV (ACSV) quantifing weather information. By estimating parameters of logistic function, model able to describe the late blight progress of potato, cv. Superior was formulated in Y=4/(1+39.0·exp((0.0088 ACSV-0.033)·CSV).

• 한국식물병리학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.150-156
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• 1998

To develop a model for prediction of turnip mosaic virus(TuMV) disease progress of Chinese cabbage based on weather information and number of TuMV vector aphids trapped in Taegwallyeong alpine area, data were statistically processed together. As the variables influenced on TuMV disease progress, cumulative portion(CPT) above 13$^{\circ}C$ in daily average temperature was the most significant, and solar radiation, duration of sunshine, vector aphids and cumulative temperature above $0^{\circ}C$ were significant. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by detemining goodness of fit for TuMV disease progress using CPT as independent variable, regression coefficient was higher in the logistic model than in the Gompertz model. Epidemic parameters, apparent infection rate and initial value of logistic model, were estimated by examining the relationship between disease proportion linearized by logit transformation equation, In(Y/Yf-Y) and CPT. Models able to describe the progression of TuMV disease were formulated in Y=100/(1+128.4 exp(-0.013.CPT.(-1(1/(1+66.7.exp(-0.11.day). Calculated disease progress from the model was in good agreement with investigated actual disease progress showing high significance of the coefficient of determination with 0.710.

• 한국가금학회지
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2016

Prediction of growth patterns of commercial chicken strains is important. It can provide visual assessment of growth as function of time and prediction body weight (BW) at a specific age. The aim of current study is to compare the three nonlinear functions (i.e., Logistic, Gompertz, and von Betalanffy) for modeling the growth of twenty five commercial Korean native chicken (KNC) strains reared under a battery cage system until 32 weeks of age and to evaluate the three models with regard to their ability to describe the relationship between BW and age. A clear difference in growth pattern among 25 strains were observed and classified in to the groups according to their growth patterns. The highest and lowest estimated values for asymptotic body weight (C) for 3H and 5W were given by von Bertalanffy and Logistic model 4629.7 g for 2197.8 g respectively. The highest estimated parameter for maturating rate (b) was given by Logistic model 0.249 corresponds to the 2F and lowest in von Bertalanffy model 0.094 for 4Y. According to the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and mean square of error (MSE), Gompertz and von Bertalanffy models were suitable to describe the growth of Korean native chicken. Moreover, von Bertalannfy model was well described the most of KNC growth with biologically meaningful parameter compared to Gompertz model.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.31-36
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• 1987

식물병(植物病) 진전곡선(進展曲線)을 간편하고 융통성있게 기술하는 절편(切片) 1차(次) 회귀(回歸)모델이 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 제안(提案)되었다. 이 모델은 병진전상황(病進展狀況)을 그 진전형태(進展形態)에 따라 소수(少數)의 1차(次) 회귀식(回歸式)으로 나누고 지표변수(指標變數)를 사용(使用)하여 다시 한개로 묶어 작성(作成)된다. 포장시험(圃場試驗)에서 얻은 12개(個)의 실제병진전상황(實際病進展狀況)에 대(對)한 절편(切片) 1차(次) 회귀(回歸)모델의 통계적(統計的) 적합도(適合度)는 기존(旣存)의 두모델(Logistic모델과 Gompertz모델)에 비(比)하여 증진(增進)되었으며 이 모델이 가진 단순성(單純性), 융통성 및 모수예측(母數豫測)의 용이성(容易性)이 논의(論議)되였다. 그 결과(結果), 절편(切片) 1차(次) 회귀(回歸)모델은 식물병(植物病) 진전(進展)을 기술(記述)하는 한 통계적(統計的) 모델로써 유용(有用)하게 사용(使用)될 수 있으리라 생각된다.

• 한국잡초학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.94-102
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• 2010

기온상승 조건을 부여하기 위해 재식시기를 달리하여 재식 한 올방개의 출아와 초기생장을 평가하고 이들과 유효적산온도간의 관계를 수학적 모델로 해석하기 위한 포트 및 포장평가를 수행하였다. Gompertz 모델을 이용하여 이들의 관계를 비선형회귀로 분석한 결과, 파종일자 및 재식 토양심도에 상관없이 유효적산 온도로 누적출아율 및 초기생장을 양호하게 설명하였다. 올방개의 최대 출아율의 50% 도달에 필요한 유효적산온도는 올방개 괴경 재식심도 1, 3 및 5 cm에서 54.5, 84.0 및 $118.0^{\circ}C$이었으며 5엽기에 이르는데 필요한 유효적산온도는 각각 155.3, 188.5 및 $215.5^{\circ}C$이었다. 본 연구에서 개발된 모델식을 이용하여 계산한 결과 평균기온이 $2^{\circ}C$ 상승한 조건에서 올방개의 50 % 출아는 심도에 따라 약 1 - 2일 빨라지고, 5엽기에 도달하는 날짜도 약 2 - 3일 빨라질 것으로 예측되었다. 따라서 $2^{\circ}C$ 기온상승 조건에서 올방개를 효과적으로 방제하기 위해서는 현재의 제초제 처리시기보다 약 2 - 3일 빨라져야 할 것으로 판단된다.