• Title/Summary/Keyword: Global stability

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Review on the impact of Arctic Amplification on winter cold surges over east Asia (북극 온난화 증폭이 겨울철 동아시아 한파 발생에 미치는 영향 고찰)

  • Seong-Joong Kim;Jeong-Hun Kim;Sang-Yoon Jun;Maeng-Ki Kim;Solji Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.33 no.1_2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2021
  • In response to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, the global mean temperature is rising rapidly. In particular, the warming of the Arctic is two to three times faster than the rest. Associated with the rapid Arctic warming, the sea ice shows decreasing trends in all seasons. The faster Arctic warming is due to ice-albedo feedback by the presence of snow and ice in polar regions, which have higher reflectivity than the ocean, the bare land, or vegetation, higher long-wave heat loss to space than lower latitudes by lower surface temperature in the Arctic than lower latitudes, different stability of atmosphere between the Arctic and lower latitudes, where low stability leads to larger heat losses to atmosphere from surface by larger latent heat fluxes than the Arctic, where high stability, especially in winter, prohibits losing heat to atmosphere, increase in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that subsequently act as green house gases, and finally due to the increase in sensible heat fluxes from low latitudes to the Arctic via lower troposphere. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in midlatitudes, especially in eastern Asia and eastern North America, cold air outbreaks occur more frequently and last longer in recent decades. Two pathways have been suggested to link the Arctic warming to cold air outbreaks over midlatitudes. The first is through troposphere in synoptic-scales by enhancing the Siberian high via a development of Rossby wave trains initiated from the Arctic, especially the Barents-Kara Seas. The second is via stratosphere by activating planetary waves to stratosphere and beyond, that leads to warming in the Arctic stratosphere and increase in geopotential height that subsequently weakens the polar vortex and results in cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes for several months. There exists lags between the Arctic warming and cold events in midlatitudes. Thus, understanding chain reactions from the Arctic warming to midlatitude cooling could help improve a predictability of seasonal winter weather in midlatitudes. This study reviews the results on the Arctic warming and its connection to midlatitudes and examines the trends in surface temperature and the Arctic sea ice.

A Study on the Financial Strength of Households on House Investment Demand (가계 재무건전성이 주택투자수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Rho, Sang-Youn;Yoon, Bo-Hyun;Choi, Young-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study investigates the following two issues. First, we attempt to find the important determinants of housing investment and to identify their significance rank using survey panel data. Recently, the expansion of global uncertainty in the real estate market has directly and indirectly influenced the Korean housing market; households demonstrate a sensitive reaction to changes in that market. Therefore, this study aims to draw conclusions from understanding how the impact of financial strength of the household is related to house investment. Second, we attempt to verify the effectiveness of diverse indices of financial strength such as DTI, LTV, and PIR as measures to monitor the housing market. In the continuous housing market recession after the global crisis, the government places top priority on residence stability. However, the government still imposes forceful restraints on indices of financial strength. We believe this study verifies the utility of these regulations when used in the housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - The data source for this study is the "National Survey of Tax and Benefit" from 2007 (1st) to 2011 (5th) by the Korea Institute of Public Finance. Based on this survey data, we use panel data of 3,838 households that have been surveyed continuously for 5 years. We sort the base variables according to relevance of house investment criteria using the decision tree model (DTM), which is the standard decision-making model for data-mining techniques. The DTM method is known as a powerful methodology to identify contributory variables for predictive power. In addition, we analyze how important explanatory variables and the financial strength index of households affect housing investment with the binary logistic multi-regressive model. Based on the analyses, we conclude that the financial strength index has a significant role in house investment demand. Results - The results of this research are as follows: 1) The determinants of housing investment are age, consumption expenditures, income, total assets, rent deposit, housing price, habits satisfaction, housing scale, number of household members, and debt related to housing. 2) The impact power of these determinants has changed more or less annually due to economic situations and housing market conditions. The level of consumption expenditure and income are the main determinants before 2009; however, the determinants of housing investment changed to indices of the financial strength of households, i.e., DTI, LTV, and PIR, after 2009. 3) Most of all, since 2009, housing loans has been a more important variable than the level of consumption in making housing market decisions. Conclusions - The results of this research show that sound financing of households has a stronger effect on housing investment than reduced consumption expenditures. At the same time, the key indices that must be monitored by the government under economic emergency conditions differ from those requiring monitoring under normal market conditions; therefore, political indices to encourage and promote the housing market must be divided based on market conditions.

ADVANTAGES OF USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES TO NEAR-INFRARED AGRICULTURAL DATA

  • Buchmann, Nils-Bo;Ian A.Cowe
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1032-1032
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    • 2001
  • Artificial Neural Network (ANN) calibration techniques have been used commercially for agricultural applications since the mid-nineties. Global models, based on transmission data from 850 to 1050 nm, are used routinely to measure protein and moisture in wheat and barley and also moisture in triticale, rye, and oats. These models are currently used commercially in approx. 15 countries throughout the world. Results concerning earlier European ANN models are being published elsewhere. Some of the findings from that study will be discussed here. ANN models have also been developed for coarsely ground samples of compound feed and feed ingredients, again measured in transmission mode from 850 to 1050 nm. The performance of models for pig- and poultry feed will be discussed briefly. These models were developed from a very large data set (more than 20,000 records), and cover a very broad range of finished products. The prediction curves are linear over the entire range for protein, fat moisture, fibre, and starch (measured only on poultry feed), and accuracy is in line with the performance of smaller models based on Partial Least Squares (PLS). A simple bias adjustment is sufficient for calibration transfer across instruments. Recently, we have investigated the possible use of ANN for a different type of NIR spectrometer, based on reflectance data from 1100 to 2500 nm. In one study, based on data for protein, fat, and moisture measured on unground compound feed samples, dedicated ANN models for specific product classes (cattle feed, pig feed, broiler feed, and layers feed) gave moderately better Standard Errors of Prediction (SEP) compared to modified PLS (MPLS). However, if the four product classes were combined into one general calibration model, the performance of the ANN model deteriorated only slightly compared to the class-specific models, while the SEP values for the MPLS predictions doubled. Brix value in molasses is a measure of sugar content. Even with a huge dataset, PLS models were not sufficiently accurate for commercial use. In contrast an ANN model based on the same data improved the accuracy considerably and straightened out non-linearity in the prediction plot. The work of Mr. David Funk (GIPSA, U. S. Department of Agriculture) who has studied the influence of various types of spectral distortions on ANN- and PLS models, thereby providing comparative information on the robustness of these models towards instrument differences, will be discussed. This study was based on data from different classes of North American wheat measured in transmission from 850 to 1050 nm. The distortions studied included the effect of absorbance offset pathlength variation, presence of stray light bandwidth, and wavelength stretch and offset (either individually or combined). It was shown that a global ANN model was much less sensitive to most perturbations than class-specific GIPSA PLS calibrations. It is concluded that ANN models based on large data sets offer substantial advantages over PLS models with respect to accuracy, range of materials that can be handled by a single calibration, stability, transferability, and sensitivity to perturbations.

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Development of a Dynamic Deformable Rubber Membrane Parapet to Cope with the Long Term Sea Level Rise and the Abnormal Waves (장기해수면 상승 및 이상파랑에 대비한 동적 가변형 고무막체 파라펫 개발)

  • Kim, Sun-Sin;Chun, In-Sik;Lee, Young-Gun;Ko, Jang-Hee;Hong, Seung-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.34-42
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    • 2011
  • It's been reported that the global warming effect has invoked the ever increasing typhoon intensity and long-term sea level rise which jointly cause severe wave overtopping over breakwaters or shore dykes. A simple measure to cope with this undesirable change may be just to increase the crest height of the dykes and breakwaters. This is surely effective to prevent wave overtopping, but it also decreases the seaward visibility of coastal waterfront. In this paper, a dynamic deformable rubber membrane parapet which not only reduces wave overtopping in storm period but also secures seascapes in normal days is presented. Several optimal configurations of the parapet are proposed. Through numerical analyses using a nonlinear finite element model and hydraulic experiments, the air controlled expansion and contraction of the parapets, their behavior against wave overtopping and structural stability are investigated.

Structure & Installation Engineering for Offshore Jack-up Rigs

  • Park, Joo-Shin;Ha, Yeong-Su;Jang, Ki-Bok;Radha, Radha
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2017
  • Jack-up drilling rigs are widely used in offshore oil and gas exploration industry. It is originally designed for use in the shallow waters less than 60m of water depth; there is growing demand for their use in deeper water depth over 150m and harsher environmental conditions. In this study, global in-place analysis of jack-up rig leg for North-sea oil well is performed through numerical analysis. Firstly, environmental conditions and seabed characteristics at the North-sea are collected and investigated measurements from survey report. Based on these data, design specifications are established and the overall basic design is performed. Dynamic characteristics of the jack-up rig for North-sea are considered in the global in-place analysis both leg and hull and the basic stability against overturning moment is also analyzed. The structural integrity of the jack-up rig leg/hull is verified through the code checks and the adequate safety margin is observed. The uncertainty in jack-up behaviour is greatly influenced by the uncertainties in the soil characteristics that determine the resistance of the foundation to the forces imposed by the jack-up structure. Among the risks above mentioned, the punch-through during pre-loading is the most frequently encountered foundation problem for jack-up rigs. The objective of this paper is to clarify the detailed structure and installation engineering matters for prove the structural safety of jack-up rigs during operation. With this intention the following items are addressed; - Characteristics of structural behavior considering soil effect against environmental loads - Modes of failure and related pre-loading procedure and parameters - Typical results of structural engineering and verification by actual measurement.

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A Study on the Financial Service Negotiations in the Korean-Chinese Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) with Respect to RMB Internationalization (위안화 국제화를 고려한 한·중 FTA 금융서비스 협상 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This paper analyzes the influence of the RMB internationalization on the KRW/dollar exchange rate using an autoregressive distributed lag model. Comparing the parameter estimators from the sample period before and after the global financial crisis, we found that the RMB/dollar exchange rate has increasingly become more influential on the KRW/dollar exchange rate. Moreover, for the past several years, the Chinese government has actively utilized the financial service FTA negotiation as a measure for the RMB internationalization. This paper simultaneously considers RMB internationalization and financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. The purpose of this paper is to explicitly suggest a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA considering the effects of RMB internationalization. Research design, data, and methodology - The research plan of this paper has two parts. First, for an empirical study, this paper uses the daily exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the ASEAN5, Taiwan,and Korea. By using an autoregressive distributed lag model, this paper studies the influence of the change in the RMB/dollar exchange rate on changes in the local currency/dollar exchange rate in seven economies neighboring China. Our sample periods are 06/2005 - 07/2008 and 06/2010 -02/2013. During these periods, China was under the multi-currency basket system. We exempted the period of 08/2008 - 05/2010 from the analysis because there was nearly no RMB/dollar exchange rate fluctuation during those months. Second, after analyzing the recent financial service liberalizations and deregulations in China, we recommend a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. In the past several years,the main Chinese financial policy agenda has surrounded the RMB internationalization. Therefore, it is crucial to understand this in the search for strategies for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. This paper employs an existing literature survey and examines the FTA protocols in its research methodology. Results and Conclusions - After the global financial crisis, the Chinese government wanted to break away from the dollar influence and pursued independent RMB internationalization in order to continue the growth and stability of its economy. Hence, every neighboring economy of China has been strategically impacted by RMB internationalization. Nevertheless, there is little empirical study on the influence of RMB internationalization on the KRW/dollar exchange rate. This paper is one of the few studies to analyze this problem comprehensively. By using a relatively simple estimation model, we can confirm that the coefficient of the RMB/dollar exchange rate has become more significant, except in the case of Indonesia. Although Korea is not under the multi-currency basket system but under the weakly controlled floating exchange rate system, its coefficient appears as large as that of the ASEAN5. This is the basis of the currency cooperation that has grown from the expansion of trade between the two countries. These empirical results suggest that the Korean government should specifically consider the RMB internationalization in the Korean-Chinese FTA negotiations.

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Study on job satisfaction and organizational commitment between regular and irregular workers of Distribution Companies (유통업체 정규직 / 비정규직의 직무만족과 조직몰입에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hee-Phil;Kim, Hong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.89-123
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    • 2008
  • This study has the purpose to research on the actual conditions of discriminative treatment between regular and irregular work and find what kind of environment factors can effect on the job-satisfaction, organizational commitments. Especially, this study has addressed to improvement of conditions for irregular work and researched the difference factors between regular and irregular workers's job-satisfaction, organizational commitment, and employment - environmental. For the data collection, a total of 400 questionnaires were distributed for survey, 195 responses were available for statistical analysis. This questionnaires were sent to the distribution companies that has a variety type of employment as regular and irregular worker in Seoul province by e-mail and direct way. And SPSS 12.0(ver.) was used to analyze the data. The main results were as the following; First, the human relationship and the normative commitment were statistically different between regular and irregular work in the part of job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Second, income were important to improve the satisfaction of job environment and personnel policy and the normative commitment. Corporation welfare were important for the satisfaction of human relationship, job environment and personnel policy, normative commitment affective commitment and continuous commitment. Stability of employment were important to improve the satisfaction of human relationship and job environment, normative commitment and affective commitment.

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Chinese Growth Enterprise Market and Business Performance Analysis on Small and Medium Sized Firms and Venture Firms Before and After Listing (중국의 창업판시장과 중소벤처기업의 상장전후 경영성과 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Cui, Wen;Sun, Zhong Yuan;Chang, Seog Ju
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2014
  • After global economic crisis, China has become one of the two pillars in the global economies and the country contributing to the Korean economy. Nevertheless, the research on Chinese financial market, particularly capital market, is rare to date. This study examined the growth enterprise market that emergedat the Shenzhen stock exchange and made comparative analysis on before and after listing for the Chinese small and medium sized firms and venture firms. The listing requirements at the Chinese growth enterprise market for the technologically innovative venture firms and fast-growing small and medium sized firms with financing purpose were more alleviated than the main board of Shenzhen stock exchange. Moreover, the listing procedures are simplified as well. Accordingly, many Chinese enterprises tend to list and the competition for listing is also intense. In particular, with the 36 initially listed firms at growth enterprise market as the research target, the investigation for the business performance before and after listing reveals that the three indexes including return on common equity, debt ratio and operating profit growth rate dropped dramatically for most all the firms. That is, the profitability and growth for the venture firms and small and medium sized firms listed on the Chinese growth enterprise market decreased rapidly after going public, only the stability improved due to the great financing. Taking a step forward, this phenomenon may result from the exaggerated reporting for the business performance before listing with the purpose of going public by the venture firms and small and medium sized firms. Thus, Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission should strengthen the accounting evaluation standard and regulation for the listing firms before going public. In addition, strict sanctions should be imposed on the firms with fraudulent accounting to establish healthy capital market.

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Determination of equivalent elastic modulus of shotcrete-tetragonal lattice girder composite (사변형 격자지보재-숏크리트 합성부재의 등가물성 결정 기법)

  • Kang, Kyung-Nam;Song, Ki-Il;Kim, Sun Gil;Kim, Kyoung Chul
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2020
  • Steel set is a structure that stabilize the NATM tunnel until the installation of shotcrete, and it is combined after the shotcrete is installed to improve stability. In this study, determination approach for the equivalent elastic modulus of shotcrete-lattice girder composite is newly suggested for tunneling simulation. Also, a method was presented to calibrate the equivalent elastic modulus through the comparison of the full 3D model and equivalent model. When the conventional equivalent elastic modulus is used for shotcrete-lattice girder composite, the flexural strength of equivalent model is 130% smaller than that of full 3D model. Equivalent elastic modulus is adjusted considering the error of flexural strength. It is found that the error of flexural strength obtained from adjusted equivalent model using adjusted equivalent elastic modulus is reduced less than 1%.

Capacity determination for a rainfall harvesting unit using an optimization method (최적화 기법을 이용한 빗물이용시설의 저류 용량 결정)

  • Jin, Youngkyu;Kang, Taeuk;Lee, Sangho;Jeong, Taekmun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2020
  • Generally, the design capacity of the rainwater harvesting unit is determined by trial and error method that is repeatedly calculating various analysis scenarios with capacity, reliability, and rainwater utilization ratio, etc. This method not only takes a lot of time to analyze but also involves a lot of calculations, so analysis errors may occur. In order to solve the problem, this study suggested a way to directly determine the minimum capacity to meet arbitrary target reliabilities using the global optimization method. The method was implemented by simulation model with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms using Python language. The pyswarm that is provided as an open-source of python was used as optimization method, that can explore global optimum, and consider constraints. In this study, the developed program was applied to the design data for the rainwater harvesting constructed in Cheongna district 1 in Incheon to verify the efficiency, stability, and accuracy of the analysis. The method of determining the capacity of the rainwater harvesting presented in this study is considered to be of practical value because it can improve the current level of analytical technology.