• Title/Summary/Keyword: General circulation models

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Future subsurface drainage in the light of climate change in Daegu, South Korea (기후변화에 따른 대구지역 지하배수 전망)

  • Nkomozepi, Temba;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2012
  • Over the last century, drainage systems have become an integral component of agriculture. Climate observations and experiments using General circulation models suggest an intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. This study presents hydrologic simulations assessing the potential impact of climate change on subsurface drainage in Daegu, Republic of Korea. Historical and Long Ashton Research Station weather generator perturbed future climate data from 15 general circulation models for a field in Daegu were ran into a water management simulation model, DRAINMOD. The trends and variability in rainfall and Soil Excess Water ($SEW_{30}$) were assessed from 1960 to 2100. Rainfall amount and intensity were predicted to increase in the future. The predicted annual subsurface drainage flow varied from -35 to 40 % of the baseline value while the $SEW_{30}$ varied from -50 to 100%. The expected increases in subsurface drainage outflow require that more attention be given to soil and water conservation practices.

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The simulation study on natural circulation operating characteristics of FNPP in inclined condition

  • Li, Ren;Xia, Genglei;Peng, Minjun;Sun, Lin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.1738-1748
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    • 2019
  • Previous research has shown that the inclined condition has an impact on the natural circulation (natural circulation) mode operation of Floating Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) mounted on the movable marine platform. Due to its compact structure, small volume, strong maneuverability, the Integral Pressurized Water Reactor (IPWR) is adopted as marine reactor in general. The OTSGs of IPWR are symmetrically arranged in the annular region between the reactor vessel and core support barrel in this paper. Therefore, many parallel natural circulation loops are built between the core and the OTSGs primary side when the main pump is stopped. and the inclined condition would lead to discrepancies of the natural circulation drive head among the OTSGs in different locations. In addition, the flow rate and temperature nonuniform distribution of the core caused by inclined condition are coupled with the thermal hydraulics parameters maldistribution caused by OTSG group operating mode on low power operation. By means of the RELAP5 codes were modified by adding module calculating the effect of inclined, heaving and rolling condition, the simulation model of IPWR in inclined condition was built. Using the models developed, the influences on natural circulation operation by inclined angle and OTSG position, the transitions between forced circulation (forced circulation) and natural circulation and the effect on natural circulation operation by different OTSG grouping situations in inclined condition were analyzed. It was observed that a larger inclined angle results the temperature of the core outlet is too high and the OTSG superheat steam is insufficient in natural circulation mode operation. In general, the inclined angle is smaller unless the hull is destroyed seriously or the platform overturn in the ocean. In consequence, the results indicated that the IPWR in the movable marine platform in natural circulation mode operation is safety. Selecting an appropriate average temperature setting value or operating the uplifted OTSG group individually is able to reduce the influence on natural circulation flow of IPWR by inclined condition.

Assessment of Future Water Circulation Rate in Dodang Watershed under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가)

  • Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Kim, Seokhyeon;Choi, Soon Kun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

GCMs Evaluation Focused on Korean Climate Reproducibility (우리나라 기후 재현성을 중심으로 한 GCMs 평가)

  • Choi, Daegyu;Lee, Jinhee;Jo, Deok Jun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.482-490
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    • 2010
  • In this study 17 GCMs' simulations of late 20th century climate in Korea are examined. A regionally averaged time series formed by averaging the temperature and precipitation values at all the Korean grid points. In order to compare general circulation models with observations, observed spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is calculated using 24 stations for 1971 to 2000. The annual mean difference between models and observed data are compared. For temperature, most models have a slight cold bias. The models with least bias in annual average temperature are NIES(MIROC3.2 hires), GISS(AOM) and INGV(SXG2005). For precipitation, almost all models have a dry bias, and for some the bias exceeds 50%. Models with lowest bias are NIES(MIROC3.2 hires), CCCma(CGCM3-T47) and MPI-M(ECHAM5-OM). The models' simulated seasonal cycles show that for temperature, CSIRO(Mk3.0) has the best followed by CCCma(CGCM3-T47) and CCCma(CGCM3-T63), and for precipitation, NIES(MIROC3.2 hires) has the best followed by CSIRO(Mk3.0) and CNRM(CM3). In the assessment using Taylor diagram, CCCma(CGCM3-T47) ranks the best for temperature, and NIES(MIROC3.2 hires) ranks the best for precipitation.

Evaluation of North Pacific Intermediate Water Simulated by HadGEM2-AO (HadGEM2-AO의 북태평양 중층수 모의 성능 평가)

  • Min, Hong Sik;Yim, Bo Young
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2015
  • We analyzed the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) that was simulated in 25 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) using historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario experiments of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on the evaluation of the performance of HadGEM2-AO. A large inter-model diversity in salinity, density, and depth of the NPIW exists even though the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is comparable to observations. It was found that the depth of the NPIW tends to be deeper in the models in which the NPIW is relatively saltier. HadGEM2-AO simulates the lightest NPIW having the lowest salinity at shallower depth, compared with other CGCMs. Future projections of the NPIW show that the temperature of the NPIW increases, but the density decreases in all CMIP5 models. It was shown that the salinity of the NPIW decreases in most models and the decrease tends to be larger in models simulating the lighter NPIW. The HadGEM2-AO projects moderate changes in the temperature and density of the NPIW out of the CMIP5 models.

Spatial prioritization of permeable pavement considering multiple general circulation models: Mokgamcheon watershed (다수의 전지구모형을 고려한 투수성 포장시설의 우선지역 선정: 목감천 유역)

  • Song, Younghoon;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1011-1023
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    • 2019
  • Rapid urbanization increases the risk of hydrologic disasters due to the increase of impervious areas in urban areas. Precipitation characteristics can be transformed due to the rise of global temperatures. Thus urban areas with the increased impervious areas are more exposed to hydrological disasters than ever before. Therefore, low impact development practices have been widely installed to rehabilitate the distorted hydrologic cycle in the urban area. This study used the Stormwater Management Model to analyze the water quantity and quality of the Mokgamcheon which had been severely urbanized, considering future climate scenarios presented by various general circulation models (GCMs). In addition the effectiveness of permeable pavement by 27 sub-watersheds was simulated in terms of water quantity and quality considering various GCMs and then the priorities of sub-watersheds were derived using an alternative valuation index which uses the pressure-state-response framework.

Numerical Study on the Role of Sea-ice Using Ocean General Circulation Model (해양대순환모형을 이용한 해빙의 역할에 관한 수치실험 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Ah;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2001
  • In order to find out the role of sea-ice in the climate system, a thermodynamic sea-ice model has been developed and included in the ocean general circulation model, MOM2, for the construction of OGCM/sea-ice coupled model in this study. By using the model developed, seasonal mean sea-ice distribution has been simulated, first of all. The role of sea-ice in the sense of large scale ocean circulation has been studied by comparing the results of OGCM/sea-ice coupled model experiment with OGCM-standalone experiment. At the same time, the coupled model has been verified by comparing and analysing the results of the other models and observation. The coupled model has reasonably simulated the overall seasonal distribution of sea-ice in the high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the comparative analysis between the OGCM/sea-ice coupled and OGCM-standalone experiments, the sea-ice is playing important roles on maintaining not only the distributions of temperature and salinity in high latitudes of both hemispheres, but also the meridional ocean circulation associated with south ocean cell, southern hemisphere cell and zonal ocean circulation such as a circum-polar current.

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A Prediction of Precipitation Over East Asia for June Using Simultaneous and Lagged Teleconnection (원격상관을 이용한 동아시아 6월 강수의 예측)

  • Lee, Kang-Jin;Kwon, MinHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.711-716
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    • 2016
  • The dynamical model forecasts using state-of-art general circulation models (GCMs) have some limitations to simulate the real climate system since they do not depend on the past history. One of the alternative methods to correct model errors is to use the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) correction method. CCA forecasts at the present time show better skill than dynamical model forecasts especially over the midlatitudes. Model outputs are adjusted based on the CCA modes between the model forecasts and the observations. This study builds a canonical correlation prediction model for subseasonal (June) precipitation. The predictors are circulation fields over western North Pacific from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and observed snow cover extent over Eurasia continent from Climate Data Record (CDR). The former is based on simultaneous teleconnection between the western North Pacific and the East Asia, and the latter on lagged teleconnection between the Eurasia continent and the East Asia. In addition, we suggest a technique for improving forecast skill by applying the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) to individual canonical correlation predictions.

A Review of Tidal Models for the East China and Yellow Seas (동중국해와 황해의 조석수치모형에 관한 과거의 연구)

  • Choi, Byung-Ho;Guohong Fang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 1993
  • The review presented herein covers most of previous works on tidal models of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea performed over past two decades including some earlier efforts. General description of tides in the region is given based on both numerically derived tidal charts, current ellipses and intelligently drawn empirical tidal charts. Some aspects of bottom tidal dissipation, tidal mixing, tidal sedimentation and tidal circulation utilizing the numerical tidal models are presented, and further discussions on inherent problems and development of the models are also given.

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CATHARE simulation results of the natural circulation characterisation test of the PKL test facility

  • Salah, Anis Bousbia
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.1446-1453
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    • 2021
  • In the past, several experimental investigations aiming at characterizing the natural circulation (NC) behavior in test facilities were carried out. They showed a variety of flow patterns characterized by an inverted U-shape of the NC flow curve versus primary mass inventory. On the other hand, attempts to reproduce such curves using thermal-hydraulic system codes, showed 10-30% differences between the measured and calculated NC mass flow rate. Actually, the used computer codes are generally based upon nodalization using single U-tube representation. Such model may not allow getting accurate simulation of most of the NC phenomena occurring during such tests (like flow redistribution and flow reversal in some SG U-tubes). Simulations based on multi-U-tubes model, showed better agreement with the overall behavior, but remain unable to predict NC phenomena taking place in the steam generator (SG) during the experiment. In the current study, the CATHARE code is considered in order to assess a NC characterization test performed in the four loops PKL facility. For this purpose, four different SG nodalizations including, single and multi-U-tubes, 1D and 3D SG inlet/outlet zones are considered. In general, it is shown that the 1D and 3D models exhibit similar prediction results up to a certain point of the rising part of the inverted U-shape of the NC flow curve. After that, the results bifurcate with, on the one hand, a tendency of the 1D models to over-predict the measured NC mass flow rate and on the other hand, a tendency of the 3D models to under-predict the NC flow rate.