• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.127-146
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• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.103-113
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• 2020

Jack-up drilling rigs are widely used in the offshore oil and gas exploration industry. Although originally designed for use in shallow waters, trends in the energy industry have led to a growing demand for their use in deep sea and harsh environmental conditions. To extend the operating range of jack-up units, their design must be based on reliable analysis while eliminating excessive conservatism. In current industrial practice, jack-up drilling rigs are designed using the working(or allowable) stress design (WSD) method. Recently, classifications have been developed for specific regulations based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, which emphasises the reliability of the methods. This statistical method utilises the concept of limit state design and uses factored loads and resistance factors to account for uncertainly in the loads and computed strength of the leg components in a jack-up drilling rig. The key differences between the LRFD method and the WSD method must be identified to enable appropriate use of the LRFD method for designing jack-up rigs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare and quantitatively investigate the differences between actual jack-up lattice leg structures, which are designed by the WSD and LRFD methods, and subject to different environmental load-to-dead-load ratios, thereby delineating the load-to-capacity ratios of rigs designed using theses methods under these different enviromental conditions. The comparative results are significantly advantageous in the leg design of jack-up rigs, and determine that the jack-up rigs designed using the WSD and LRFD methods with UC values differ by approximately 31 % with respect to the API-RP code basis. It can be observed that the LRFD design method is more advantageous to structure optimization compared to the WSD method.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.187-209
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• 1972

Drilling position is one of the most important factors affecting on the blasting effects. There has been many reports on several blasting factors of burn-cut by Messrs. Brown and Cook, but in this study the author tried to compare drilling positions of burn-cut to pyramid-cut, and also to correlate burn-cut effects of drilling patterns, not being dealt by Prof. Ito in his theory, which emphasized on dynamical stress analysis between explosion and free face. According to former theories, there break out additional tensile stress reflected at the free face supplemented to primary compressive stress on the blasting with one-free-face. But with these experimented new drilling patterns of burn-cut, more free faces and nearer distance of each drilling holes make blasting effects greater than any other methods. To promote the above explosive effect rationary, it has to be considered two important categories under-mentioned. First, unloaded hole in the key holes should be drilled in wider diameter possibly so that it breaks out greater stress relief. Second, key holes possibly should have closer distances each other to result clean blasting. These two important factors derived from experiments with, theories of that the larger the dia of the unloaded hole, it can be allowed wider secondary free faces and closes distances of each holes make more developed stress relief, between loaded and unloaded holes. It was suggested that most ideal distance between holes is about 4 clearance in U. S. A., but the author, according to the experiments, it results that the less distance allow, the more effective blasting with increased broken rock volume and longer drifted length can be accomplished. Developed large hole burn-cut method aimed to increase drifting length technically under the above considerations, and progressive success resulted to achieve maximum 7 blasting cycles per day with 3.1m drifting length per cycle. This achievement originated high-speed-drifting works, and it was also proven that application of Metallic AN-FO on large hole burn-cut method overcomes resistance of one-free-face. AN-FO which was favored with low price and safety handling is the mixture of the fertilizer or industrial Ammonium-Nitrate and fuel oil, and it is also experienced that it shows insensible property before the initiation, but once it is initiated by the booster, it has equal explosive power of Ammonium Nitrate Explosives (ANE). There was many reports about AN-FO. On AN-FO mixing ratio, according to these experiments, prowdered AN-FO, 93.5 : 6.5 and prilled AN-FO 94 : 6, are the best ratios. Detonation, shock, and friction sensities are all more insensitive than any other explosives. Residual gas is not toxic, too. On initation and propagation of the detonation test, prilled AN-FO is more effective than powered AN-FO. AN-FO has the best explosion power at 7 days elapsed after it has mixed. While AN-FO was used at open pit in past years prior to other conditions, the author developed new improved explosives, Metallic AN-FO and Underwater explosive, based on the experiments of these fundmental characteristics by study on its usage utilizing AN-FO. Metallic AN-FO is the mixture of AN-FO and Al, Fe-Si powder, and Underwater explosive is made from usual explosive and AN-FO. The explanations about them are described in the other paper. In this study, it is confirmed that the blasting effects of utilizing AN-FO explosives are very good.