• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.15-32
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• 2016

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) has been the most essential organization in Asia. In spite of the world economic crisis, Southeast Asian countries have shown fast economic growth since 2000, and they have been actively expanding investments and trades especially with major countries. Research on competitiveness in ASEAN market has spawned an increasingly large literature, but empirical research on the determinants of Korea's export to ASEAN is limited. The purpose of this study is to draw out the determinant of Korean fisheries export to ASEAN by carrying out a panel analysis. For achieving such a purpose, pooled OLS, Hausman Test, Fixed Effect, Random Effect are performed. The last 20 years' data over the period of 1995 to 2014 concentrated on the ASEAN 6 countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam is used in this study. Amount of aquatic products export to ASEAN is used as the dependent variable; real exchange rate, real GDP, relative price level and GDP per capita are used as the explanatory variables and FTA as dummy variable. Empirical results show that fixed-effect analysis is the best model among all the models. As the fixed effect model shows, real exchange rate, real GDP, GDP per capita and dummy variable(FTA) play positive and statistically significant roles in fisheries export to ASEAN, while price variable plays a negative and statistically significant role to the dependent variable.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2023

This paper mainly studies the relationship between financial development, inbound tourism development, and economic growth rate in Fujian Province, China. This study uses the data of real GDP, foreign exchange income from international tourism, and financial interrelations ratio from 1994 to 2019. In the analysis process, the Johansen cointegration test is first used to analyze whether the three have a long-term equilibrium relationship. Then the vector error correction model is established to test the restrictive relationship among the three. Next, the Granger causality test assesses whether the three have a causal relationship. Finally, the contribution rate of the three is analyzed by variance decomposition. The above methods show the following conclusions: first, the three have a long-term equilibrium relationship. Secondly, in the short term, local economic growth is constrained by inbound tourism and financial development. Thirdly, there is a causal relationship between economic growth and inbound tourism in Fujian, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, financial development, and inbound tourism. Fourthly, the contribution rate of inbound tourism to economic growth fluctuations in Fujian is higher than that of financial development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.95-104
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• 2019

Along with the economic globalization and network generalization, this provides a good opportunity to the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. Based on this background, this paper sets ASEAN countries as an example to exploit the determinants of cross-border e-commerce trade including the export and the import, respectively. The panel data from the year of 1998 to 2016 will be employed to estimate the relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables under the dynamic ordinary least squares and the error correction model. The findings of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables. Generally speaking, the GDP(+) and real exchange rate(-export & +import) have an effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. However, the population (+) and the terms of trade (-) only have an effect on cross-border e-commerce import. The empirical evidences show that the GDP and the real exchange rate always affect the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. Therefore, all ASEAN countries should try their best to develop the economic growth and focus on the exchange rate regime so as to meet the need of cross-border e-commerce trade development.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.187-214
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• 2012

Korea's national income statistics have been compiled by the Bank of Korea since 1953. However, there is a break in the time series. The current time series (1970 onward) is based on the '1993 SNA (System of National Accounts)' suggested by the UN, and the previous time series (1953~1970) was based on the '1953 SNA'. The difference between the previous and current time series is 4.8% in 1970 when the two series overlap. The difference is even greater in terms of comparisons across industries. In addition, it has now become even more difficult to connect the current and the previous time series because, in 2009, the Bank of Korea introduced a chain weighted method for calculating the current time series (1970 onward). Under the chain weighted method, the time series underwent substantial modification; for instance, the economic growth rate during 1970~2005 is 0.9%p higher than the rate under the general method. This paper applies chain weighted values and the '1993 SNA' to the previous time series (1953~1970) by utilizing various national account manuals published by the UN and previous Korean input-output tables in order to calculate a long term time series from 1953 to 2010 based on the same criteria as the current time series (1970 onward). In the revised time series, it appears that 1953 GDP at current basic prices is 3.5% higher and the growth rate for the period of 1953~1970 is 1.5%p higher each year than under the previous time series. Under the revised time series the size of the Korean economy as of 2010 is 50-fold bigger than that of 1953. In terms of industries, manufacturing and SOC show significant expansion whereas the extent of that of the service industry is relatively small.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.49 no.8
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

Using the 1987-2008 quarterly aggregated data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, this study investigated the factors influencing household saving rate. The independent variables in the AR regression model were the GDP growth rate, shares of the total household expenditure allocated to tax & social insurance, and education, the variables reflecting the conditions of the asset market including interest rate, stock market index, and real estate price index, and the variables representing the social economic conditions including the index of aging and income inequality. Among the independent variables interest rate, stock market index, and income inequality were found to be significantly associated with the household saving rate. These results suggested that the redistribution and financial market policies favorable to savers may be effective for raising the household saving rate.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.103-118
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• 2023

Purpose - This study aims to examine the dynamic relationship between the variables impacted by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the level of intra-industry trade among member states, with the ultimate objective of deducing the short- and long-term effects of RCEP on trade. Design/methodology - This study focuses on tariffs, GDP growth rates, and the proportion of regional FDI to total FDI as research variables, and employs a panel vector autoregression model and GMM-style estimator to investigate the dynamic relationship between RCEP and intra-industry trade among member countries. Findings - The study finds that the level of intra-industry trade between member states is positively impacted by both tariffs and intra-regional FDI. The impulse response graph shows that tariffs and FDI within the region can promote intra-industry trade among member countries, with a quick response. However, the contribution rates of tariffs and intra-regional FDI are not particularly high at approximately 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively. In contrast, the contribution rate of GDP growth can reach around 8.5%. This implies that the influence of economic growth rate on intra-regional trade in industries is not only long-term but also more powerful than that of tariffs and intra-regional FDI. Originality/value - The originality of this study lies in providing a new approach to investigating the potential impact of RCEP while avoiding the limitations associated with the GTAP model. Additionally, this study addresses existing gaps within the research, further contributing to the research merit of the study.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.27-68
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• 2012

This study outlines measures related to fiscal policies aimed at responding to the financial crisis according to the timing of commencement and then examines impacts of expansionary fiscal policies on macro variables so as to extract policy implications. The size of expansionary fiscal policy to respond to the financial crisis is found to total 59.8 trillion won (6.1% of GDP in 2007), among which a total of 30.5 trillion won was the increased fiscal expenditure made by the 2008 supplementary budget, the 2009 revised budget and the 2009 supplementary budget. In addition, tax reductions are found to be a total of 29.3 trillion won, mainly driven by the tax reforms in 2008 and 2009. Examining dynamic changes in macro variables caused by the temporary increase in fiscal expenditure and the tax reductions reveals that the increase effect of the real GDP growth rate brought by a temporary rise in fiscal expenditure excluding tax reduction effects turned out to be 1.1%p in 2009 and 0.3%p in 2010, compared to the period without the increase in fiscal expenditure. Meanwhile, when taking into account the effect of expansionary fiscal policies including tax reduction effects, the increase effect of real GDP turns out to be much higher. In the case of 2009, the real GDP rose additionally by 1.9%p, in which 1.1%p by the increase in fiscal expenditure and 0.8%p by tax reduction. Based on these results, the expansionary fiscal policy conducted during the financial crisis since the second half of 2008 can be seen to have played a significant role in helping the Korean economy post a higher-than-anticipated recovery pace from the economic slowdown triggered by the crisis.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.131-145
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• 2020

Purpose - The recent growth of South Korean products in the international market is the benchmark for both developed as well as developing countries. According to the development index, the role of international trade is indeed crucial for the development of the national economy. However, the visualization of the international trade profile of the country is the prerequisite of governmental policy decision-makers and guidance for forecasting of foreign trade. Design/methodology - We have utilized data visualization techniques in order to visualize the import & export product space and trade partners of South Korea. Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) were used to identify the Korean international trade diversification, whereas the time series approach is used to forecast the economy and foreign trade variables. Findings - Our results show that Chine, U.S, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan are the leading trade partners of Korea. Overall, the ECI of South Korea is growing significantly as compared to China, Hong Kong, and other developed countries of the world. The expected values of total import and export volume of South Korea are approximately US$535.21 and US$ 781.23B, with the balance of trade US$ 254.02B in 2025. It was also observed from our analysis that imports & exports are equally substantial to the GDP of Korea and have a significant correlation with GDP, GDP per capita, and ECI. Originality/value - To maintain the growth rate of international trade and efficient competitor for the trade partners, we have visualized the South Korea trade profile, which provides the information of significant export and import products as well as main trade partners and forecasting.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.119-138
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• 2024

Text indicators are increasingly valuable in economic forecasting, but are often hindered by noise and high dimensionality. This study aims to explore post-processing techniques, specifically noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, to normalize text indicators and enhance their utility through empirical analysis. Predictive target variables for the empirical analysis include monthly leading index cyclical variations, BSI (business survey index) All industry sales performance, BSI All industry sales outlook, as well as quarterly real GDP SA (seasonally adjusted) growth rate and real GDP YoY (year-on-year) growth rate. This study explores the Hodrick and Prescott filter, which is widely used in econometrics for noise filtering, and employs sufficient dimension reduction, a nonparametric dimensionality reduction methodology, in conjunction with unstructured text data. The analysis results reveal that noise filtering of text indicators significantly improves predictive accuracy for both monthly and quarterly variables, particularly when the dataset is large. Moreover, this study demonstrated that applying dimensionality reduction further enhances predictive performance. These findings imply that post-processing techniques, such as noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, are crucial for enhancing the utility of text indicators and can contribute to improving the accuracy of economic forecasts.