• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.799-831
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• 2012

This study was accomplished to support farmers who want to introduce Automatic Milking System. The methods of analysis is considered on it as investment analysis that NPV, ROV and FROV. As a classical investment analysis technique, NPV showed 142 thousand won on the every senarioes. On the other hands, The Real Option Analysis showed 153,826, 154,937 and 152,858 on the normal, optimistic and pessimistic senarioes respectively. it is considered as a investment analysis technique for strategic decision-making. But, it may have problem to evaluate present value of expected cash flows and expected costs by a single number. To solve those problems, this paper tried to evaluate Fuzzy Real Option Model which were jointed with a real option model and Fuzzy set model. The result of analysis showed, on respective senarioes, 153,515 to 161,489, 154,612 to 162,970, and 152,573 to 159,835 on the interval estimation. Thereby It is a more realistic in many cases.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.217-239
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• 2009

As gas hydrate is recently emerging as a new energy source to solve environmental and exhaustion problems caused by fossil energy, Korea is working on a gas hydrate development project under a 10-year plan from 2005 to 2014. Gas hydrate is expected to have a big effect on the economy and society of Korea, which is largely depending on energy imports besides water energy and atomic energy. However, it is uncertain whether the project will produce successful results. Thus, it is very important to improve its validity and to propose effective execution strategies by evaluating the value of the project in advance. Thus, this study intended to include new information, which had not been evaluated in existing methods, and to reduce biases or errors in value evaluation results by applying a fuzzy risk analysis to the real option model in order to evaluate the value of a gas hydrate development project. It is advantageous that the real option model based on the fuzzy risk analysis modelizes the vagueness and inexactness of intangible element judgment into an appropriate language scale so as to evaluate these elements clearly and integrate them with estimated financial performance results. The application of the fuzzy risk analysis makes it possible to conduct an analysis by dissolving a decision-making issue with complicated and various attributes into several simplified problems. With the continuing high oil prices and today's demand of clean energy, the necessity of energy resources and technology development projects keeps growing. Amid this situation, it is expected that these study results will contribute to proposing a guideline not only for gas hydrate projects but also for policy decision-making related to future energy industries.