• 한국인구학
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.87-117
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• 1985

In Principle, the distriction should be understood between projections and forecasts. When the author or user of a projection is willing to describe it as indicating the most likely population at a give date, then he has made a forecast Population change since 1 960 has been reviewed briefly in order to forecast the population of Korea in the year 2,000 which is a leading factor in long term national development plan for which Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) has been participated since 1983. The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough. Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000. As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early I 990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information coflected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.

• 한국인구학
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.30-41
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• 1986

It is worthwhile to compare the major social indicators between Korea the and Taiwan particularly focusing on population because two countries share close similarities in many aspects and gave access to the advanced level among the developing countries in recent years. Similarities or dissimilarities presented in this paper will be helpful to the researchers and the policy makers of the two countries by giving them insight on the situation. The similarities and dissimilarities between the two countries in the field of demography and social indicators are summarized as follows : 1. Similarity indicators can be found in fertility. One of them is Net Reproduction Rate and it was less than one in both countries in 1985. The past trend of fertility, in fact level and pattern of it, of the two countries from 1960 to 1985 has been very similar. 2. Level and pattern of mortality is quite different between two countries. Mortality level of Taiwan is lower than that of Korea. 3. The close similarity between two countries was shown in population structure and aging index. 4. On future population projection, the population structure and the level and pattern of fertility of the two countries are very similar. During fourty years, the period from the current population growth rate which is a little more than 1% to the zero growth rate, the annual population growth rate of the two countries is approximately 0.6% and that is similar to those of the current industrialized countries. According to the medium variant of the projection, Korean population will reach Zero Growth Rate between 2020 and 2025 whereas Taiwan between 2025 and 2020 5. Current level of contraceptive prevalence of both countries is very similar showing above 70% of the eligible women in 1985 and one of the valuable factors of achieving this high rate within short period must be the national program of the family planning. A close cooperation in the field of population policy formulation and its implementation is indispensable because Korea and Taiwan have similarity in many population indicators.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.303-311
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• 1992

It is very important to estimate the future medical care expenditure, because medical care expenditure escalation is a big problem not only in the health industry but also in the Korean economy today. This study was designed to project the medical care expenditure in view of population age change. The data of this study were the population projection data based on National Census Data(1990) of the National Statistical Office and the Statistical Reports of the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The future medical care expenditure was eatimated by the regression model and the optional simulation model. The significant results are as follows : 1. The future medical care expenditure will be 3,963 billion Won in the year 2000, 4,483 billion Won in 2010, and 4,826 billion Won in 2020, based on the 1990 market price considering only the population age change. 2. The proportion of the total medical care expenditure in the elderly over 65 will be 10.4% in 2000, 13.5% in 2010, and 16.9% in 2020. 3. The future medical care expenditure will be 4,306 billion Won in the year 2000, 5,101 billion Won in 2010, and 5,699 billion Won in 2020 based on the 1990 market price considering the age structure change and the change of the case-cost estimated by the regression model. 4. When we consider the age-structure change and inflation compared with the preceding year, the future medical care expenditurein 2020 will be 21 trillion Won based on a 5% inflation rate, 42 trillion Won based on a 7.5% inflation rate, and 84 trillion Won based on a 10% inflation rate. Consideration of the aged(65 years old and over) will be essential to understand the acute increase of medical care expenditure due to changes in age structure of the population. Therefore, alternative policies and programs for the caring of the aged should be further studied.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2003

There are three main purposes in this study. First, we project the number of elderly dementia population in the future based on the projection of the elderly population in the Kyungpook area. Second, the demands of home-based care service and facility-based care for the elderly dementia are estimated. Thirdly, some policy implications for the improvement of welfare services for the elderly dementia are addressed. The findings of this study are as follows. Considering the size of the elderly dementia population, facilities for the elderly dementia are extremely insufficient and most of the elderly dementia patients rely heavily on home-based care. Although we expect that there will be a rapid increase in the number of the elderly dementia in the next two decades, the social welfare services for them in the future are very unreliable. Home nursing for the demented elderly needs to be recognized by law and financed by the government. In this context, we address some issues regarding the rapid growth of the elderly dementia population in the future and social welfare services for them as well. Finally we suggest some policy implications regarding this matter.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.309-315
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• 2015

Background Breast projection is a critical element of breast reconstruction aesthetics, but little has been published regarding breast projection as the firm expander is changed to a softer implant. Quantitative data representing this loss in projection may enhance patient education and improve our management of patient expectations. Methods Female patients who were undergoing immediate tissue-expander breast reconstruction with the senior author were enrolled in this prospective study. Three-dimensional camera software was used for all patient photographs and data analysis. Projection was calculated as the distance between the chest wall and the point of maximal projection of the breast form. Values were calculated for final tissue expander expansion and at varying intervals 3, 6, and 12 months after implant placement. Results Fourteen breasts from 12 patients were included in the final analysis. Twelve of the 14 breasts had a loss of projection at three months following the implant placement or beyond. The percentage of projection lost in these 12 breasts ranged from 6.30% to 43.4%, with an average loss of projection of 21.05%. Conclusions This study is the first prospective quantitative analysis of temporal changes in breast projection after expander-implant reconstruction. By prospectively capturing projection data with three-dimensional photographic software, we reveal a loss of projection in this population by three months post-implant exchange. These findings will not only aid in managing patient expectations, but our methodology provides a foundation for future objective studies of the breast form.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.663-683
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• 2015

저출산과 고령화 등의 인구구조의 변화는 미래 건강보험 재정의 안전성을 위협하고 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 2002년부터 2013년까지 국민건강보험 표본코호트 DB를 이용하여 유병율 및 진료비에 대한 통계적 모형을 추정하고 인구구조와 경제상황의 변화에 대한 다양한 미래 가정들을 반영하여 건강보험 재정의 연도별 수입과 지출을 2060년까지 추계하였다. 지출 추계에는 건강보험공단 표본 코호트 DB를 이용하여 유병율 및 진료비를 추계하였다. 유병율 모형은 VECM-LC모형을 그리고 1인당 공단 부담 진료비에 대한 추계는 이중지수평활법에 근거 하였다. 두 모형 모두를 의료기관별, 질병별, 성별, 연령별로 적합하고 경제상황의 변화에 대한 국회와 정부의 여러 가정들을 반영하여 최종 추계치를 산출하였다. 수입 추계는 고령화 속도에 대한 두 개의 다른 가정에 근거한 두 개의 미래 인구구조를 반영한 두 개의 피부양률 가정에 근거하고, 지출 추계에서와 마찬가지로 경제 상황의 변화에 대한 여러 가지 가정을 반영하여 최종 추계치를 산출하였다. 그 결과 건강보험 재정적자는 2015년 불변가격으로 2030년에는 2030조 원, 2060년에는 4070조 원이 될 것으로 추계되었다.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

본 연구의 주된 목적은 다지역 코호트-요인법을 적용하여 우리나라의 시도별 장래 인구 추계를 실행하는 것이다. 마르코프 연쇄 모델과 Rogers의 다지역 인구 추계 모델에 대한 검토를 바탕으로 실행 가능한 다지역 코호트-요인법의 프레임워크를 설정하였다. 이 프레임워크를 우리나라 데이터에 적용하여 2005~2030년에 대한 5년 단위의 시도별 인구 추계를 실행하였으며, 그 결과에 대한 타당성을 검토하였다. 중요한 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구의 추계치를 기존 통계청의 추계치 및 경험 데이터와 비교해 본 결과 제안된 추계 기법의 방법론적 타당성이 매우 높은 것으로 드러났다. 둘째, 본 연구의 방법론은 미래의 지역간 인구이동 매트릭스를 산출한다는 측면에서 추계 결과의 유용성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단되었다. 미래의 지역간 인구이동에 대한 정보는 지역별 인구변동을 이해하고 실질적인 정책 대안을 제시하는데 핵심적인 역할을 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 국가 전체의 인구변동 보다는 인구 이동을 통해 상호 연결되어 있는 하위 지역 인구들의 진화 과정을 더욱 강조하는 다지역 관점의 중요성을 예증하고 있다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.25-51
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• 2017

This paper employs an Overlapping Generations Model to quantify the impacts of Korea's demographic transition toward an older population on the total output growth rate. The model incorporates the projected population through 2060 according by Statistics Korea. The effects of the low fertility and increased life expectancy rates are studied. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy. Under the assumption that the TFP growth rate will not slow considerably in the future, remaining at 1.3% per annum, the gross output growth rate of the Korean economy is projected to slow to 1.1% per annum in the 2050s, from 4.0% in the 2000s. The shrinking workforce due to the decline in fertility plays a significant role in the deceleration of the Korean economy. The increased life expectancy rate is expected to mitigate the negative effect, but the magnitude of its effect is found to be limited.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.191-191
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• 2016

Hai River Basin is one of China's major agricultural areas, with a huge rural population. Water conservancy is of great importance in this region. There are three integral elements in managing rural water resources: the consideration of current situation, the adoption of effective management measures, and the projection of future needs. In this study, we provide an in-depth investigation of current water resources situation of Hai River Basin. Five issues are analyzed: (1) the construction of conservancy projects; (2) the irrigation of farmland; (3)the safety of drinking water; (4)the protection of water environment; and (5)the model of management practice. Existing problems are diagnosed and possible solutions are discussed. Finally, a summary is made for managing water resources and meeting future needs.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권9호
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.