• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future markets

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An Empirical Analysis on a Predictive Method of Systematic Segmentation in Volatile High-Tech Markets

  • Shin, Yonghee;Jeon, Hyori;Choi, Munkee;Han, Eoksoo;Jung, Sungyoung
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2013
  • High-tech markets are unpredictable owing to rapid technology innovation, diverse customer needs, high competition, and other elements. Many scholars have attempted to explain the uncertainty in high-tech markets using their own various approaches. However, sufficiently clear ways to predict diverse changes and trends in high-tech markets have yet to be presented. Thus, this paper proposes a new approach model, that is, systematic market segmentation, to give more accurate information. Using an empirical dataset from the mobile handset market in the Republic of Korea, we conduct our research model consisting of three steps. First, we categorize nine basic segments. Second, we test the stability of these segments. Finally, we profile the characteristics of the customers and products. We conclude that the approach is able to offer more diagnostic information to both practitioners and scholars. It is expected to provide rich information for an appropriate marketing mix in practice.

Present and Future of the Korean Firms: Focused on the Traditional Market

  • Kim, Young-Ei
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 2012
  • Purpose - This study aimed to explore and examine the government policies and supporting systems of the traditional market in Korea. Research design / data / methodology - Recognizing these problems, the Korean government enacted three special legislations and adopted six support policies in support of the traditional markets. Results - Those markets with modernized stores, parking lots, and arcades have certainly increased sales and the number of customers. However, this uniform modernization support policy was short of supporting strategies that could have developed characteristics and advantages of each market, so many markets and merchants lost self-sustainable ability and ended up with relying on government support. Conclusions - The study indicates that Small & Medium Business Administration's role in implementing government policies including selection of the markets that needed to be modernized, developing commercial areas in connection with traditional market and neighboring shopping streets, customizing and improving distribution system, developing specialty stores, merchant college, merchants' self-sustainable ability, and creating convenient and safe shopping environment is vital to traditional markets' future success.

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Forecasting the Future of the Desktop Monitor Market

  • Young, Ross
    • The Magazine of the IEIE
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2001
  • The LCD monitor market enjoyed rapid growth in 1999 but only experienced modest growth in 2000. It is now poised for rapid growth from 2001 to 2005 as prices and costs decline. Price reductions will enable LCD monitors to move beyond limited vertical markets and extend into the broader consumer markets. This article will examine the future outlook for LCD monitors and provide a growth forecast.

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The Understanding of Factors of Open Market Satisfaction and Preference: The Study of Comparison Between Integrated Internet Shopping Store and Open Market (오픈마켓에 대한 구매자 만족과 선호의 영향요인 이해 : 오픈마켓과 종합인터넷쇼핑몰의 비교연구)

  • Lee, Joo-Ryang
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2006
  • In recent, Open markets are booming up rapidly. Open markets are one of the online marketplaces which mainly concentrated on spot transactions of commodities, and are differentiated from integrated internet shopping stores with market participants, trading rules and so on. This study investigated on factors affecting satisfaction with and preference on open markets by comparing open markets with integrated internet shopping stores, and aimed to figure out the reasons why open markets are growing up so rapidly and to forecast the future of open markets. To investigate the factors affecting buyers' satisfaction with and preference on internet shopping channel. I extracted several factors through literature reviews. The factors include the pros (cost saving and time saving), the cons (security concerns and privacy concerns), and decision making support suggested by Simon's research as well. Then, I constructed research model and related research hypotheses. To verify research hypotheses, I conducted field survey targeting on online buyers and analyzed research data using structural equation model. According to data analysis result, open markets have competitive advantages over integrated internet shopping stores with respect to cost saving, time saving, and decision making support. However, online buyers are still concerning privacy issues within open markets. In summary, buyers are considering that open markets are cheaper, faster, and more efficient internet shopping channel, compared with integrated internet shopping stores. However, open markets are required to dedicate to lessen buyers' privacy concerns to rebirth as more satisfying and preferable internet shopping channel and to prosper in the future.

Social Factors and Herd Behaviour in Developed Markets, Advanced Emerging Markets and Secondary Emerging Markets

  • Loang, Ooi Kok;Ahmad, Zamri
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.97-122
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    • 2020
  • This paper examines the existence of herd behaviour in fifteen (15) global stock markets, which consist of Developed Markets (Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the United Kingdom), Advanced Emerging Markets (Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland and South Africa) and Secondary Emerging Markets (Chile, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia) by using Cross Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) method of Chiang and Zheng (2010). It also seeks to explore the impact of social factors such as prosperity, education, ageing society, industry orientation and gender on the existence of market-wide herding. The findings of this paper indicate that herd behaviour exists in Singapore (Developed Market), Mexico, Poland and South Africa (Advanced Emerging Markets) and China and the Philippines (Secondary Emerging Markets). No evidence of herding is observed for Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, United Kingdom, Brazil, Malaysia, Chile, Indonesia and Russia. Ageing society is also found to have significant impact on the existence of herd behaviour. Nonetheless, prosperity, education, industry orientation and gender are found to be insignificant to herding. This study sheds some light on whether social factors determine herding behaviour in the 15 selected stock markets.

The Strategy Remodeling Renovation of Traditional Fashion Markets: The Differences of Perceptions between Merchants and Consumers (의류재래시장의 리모델링 활성화 방안에 관한 연구: 재래시장 상인들과 이용 소비자들의 인식 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seung-Hee;Hong, Byung-Sook;Chae, Myung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.44 no.2 s.216
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was 1) to examine the current situation of traditional fashion markets, 2) to compare the perceptions toward remodeling traditional retail markets between retail merchants and consumers, and 3) to provide the new remodeling renovation of traditional fashion retail markets. The study subjects comprised 127 merchants and 128 consumers. Both the merchants and consumers tended to have a negative perception of future fashion traditional markets. Consumers tended to have a higher perception of fashion store service, such as A/S and salesperson's service, than merchants. In addition, there were significant differences in perceptions toward remodeling renovation of traditional markets between retail merchants and consumers. Based on these results, a fashion marketing strategy regarding digital network is suggested.

Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Nexus in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation Using MGARCH-DCC Model

  • RASHID, Tabassam;BASHIR, Malik Fahim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.

Investing for the Future: A Comprehensive Study of the Southeast Asian Construction Markets

  • Chun, Hwikyung;Yoo, Jinhyuk;Chi, Seokho;Cha, Heesung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.459-462
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    • 2015
  • Korean construction industry made a huge growth over several decades. However, domestic construction market has shrunk in recent years due to the domestic political environments and global economic crisis. Today, the international construction markets become more important to be investigated, and demands for international construction study have risen. The purpose of this study is to search for measures to compare the potential of Southeast Asian countries' construction markets and select strategic target countries where the Korean construction companies pursue to explore for future investments. The research team investigated a range of selection factors which can represent the construction market condition of each country. These factors included the size of the construction industry, economic growth potential, current relationship with Korea, the level of infrastructure development, political situation, etc. After collecting data, each selection factor was scored by experts' analyses and the total score was given to each country. As a result, the rating identified attractive countries for future investments: Myanmar, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka. For the target countries, analytical methods were used for in-depth market analysis that can provide comprehensive insight and strategic clue for development of short-/mid-/long-term roadmap and action plans. The research findings would be used to support rational decision making of construction investment advancing to the Southeast Asian economic growth.

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