• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2006.10a
• /
• pp.485-486
• /
• 2006

• Convergence Security Journal
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.115-121
• /
• 2012

Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing. For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offers information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss forecasting failure time case of failure time censoring. In this study, we predict the future failure time by using the curve regression analysis where the s-curve, growth, and Logistic model is used. The proposed prediction method analysis used failure time for the prediction of this model. Model selection using the coefficient of determination and the mean square error were presented for effective comparison.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.755-764
• /
• 2011

In many companies field failure data is used to predict the future number of failures, especially when an unexpected failure mode happens to be a problem. It is because they want to predict the number of spare parts needed and the future quality warranty cost associated with the part based on the predictions of the future number of failures. In this paper field summary data is used to predict the future number of failures based on an appropriate distribution. Other types of data are also investigated to identify the appropriate distribution.

• Journal of KIISE
• /
• v.42 no.12
• /
• pp.1551-1560
• /
• 2015

Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) are used to quantitatively evaluate software reliability and to determine the software release date or additional testing efforts using software failure data. Because a single SRGM is not universally applicable to all kinds of software, the selection of an optimal SRGM suitable to a specific case has been an important issue. The existing methods for SRGM selection assess the goodness-of-fit of the SRGM in terms of the collected failure data but do not consider the accuracy of future failure predictions. In this paper, we propose a method for selecting SRGMs using the trend of failure data and failure prediction ability. To justify our approach, we identify problems associated with the existing SRGM selection methods through experiments and show that our method for selecting SRGMs is superior to the existing methods with respect to the accuracy of future failure prediction.

• Advanced Industrial SCIence
• /
• v.2 no.4
• /
• pp.11-16
• /
• 2023

The subway is a means of public transportation that plays an important role in the transportation system of modern cities. However, congestion often occurs due to sudden breakdowns and system outages, causing inconvenience. Therefore, in this paper, we conducted a study on failure prediction and prevention using machine learning to efficiently operate the subway system. Using UC Irvine's MetroPT-3 dataset, we built a subway breakdown prediction model using logistic regression. The model predicted the non-failure state with a high accuracy of 0.991. However, precision and recall are relatively low, suggesting the possibility of error in failure prediction. The ROC_AUC value is 0.901, indicating that the model can classify better than random guessing. The constructed model is useful for stable operation of the subway system, but additional research is needed to improve performance. Therefore, in the future, if there is a lot of learning data and the data is well purified, failure can be prevented by pre-inspection through prediction.

• Journal of Power System Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.6
• /
• pp.61-66
• /
• 2010

Engineering asset management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting time-to-failure and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In general reliability models, lifetime of component and system is estimated using failure time data. This paper deals with the reliability assessment of elevators using life of main components. Especially this work is concerned with the stochastic nature of life of elevator components. First, we investigate the Weibull statistical analysis of lifetime data for the components. The final goal is to establish the mathematical model for reliability assessment. This work provides more perspectives to future research in the fields of reliability and maintainability.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.21-30
• /
• 1997

In accelerated life tests, the failure time of an item is observed under a high stress level, and based on the time the performances of items are investigated at the normal stress level. In this paper, when the mean of the prior of a failure rate is known in the exponential lifetime distribution with censored accelerated failure time data, we utilize the empirical Bayesian method by using the moment estimators in order to estimate the parameters of the prior distribution and obtain the empirical Bayesian predictive density and predictive intervals for a future observation under the normal stress level.

• Convergence Security Journal
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.19-24
• /
• 2011

Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing, For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offer information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss forecasting failure time case of failure time censoring. In this study, time series analys is used in the simple moving average and weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing method for predict the future failure times, Empirical analysis used interval failure time for the prediction of this model. Model selection using the mean square error was presented for effective comparison.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.3821-3828
• /
• 2000

Many software projects collect grouped failure data (failures in some failure interval or in variable time interval) rather than individual failure times or failure count data during the testing or operational phase. This paper presents the neural network (NN) modeling that is dble to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time for grouped failure data. ANN's predictive ability can be affected by what it learns and in its ledming sequence. Eleven training regimes that represents the input-output of NN are considered. The best training regimes dre selected rJdsed on the next' step dvemge reldtive prediction error (AE) and normalized AE (NAE). The suggested NN models are compared with other well-known KN models and statistical software reliability growth models (SHGlvls) in order to evaluate performance, Experimental results show that the NN model with variable time interval information is necessary in order to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time interval.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.59 no.5
• /
• pp.101-108
• /
• 2017

Recently, the occurrence of landslides has been increasing over the years due to the extreme weather event. Developments of landslides monitoring technology that reduce damage caused by landslide are urgently needed. Therefore, in this study, a strain ratio sensor was developed to predict the ground behavior during the slope failure, and the change in surface ground displacement was observed as slope failed on the field model experiment. As a result, in the slope failure, the ground displacement process increases the risk of collapse as the inverse displacement approaches zero. It is closely related to the prediction of precursor. In all cases, increase in displacement and reverse speed of inverse displacement with time was observed during the slope failure, and it is very important event for monitoring collapse phenomenon of risky slopes. In the future, it can be used as disaster prevention technology to contribute in reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.