• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권5호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.251-263
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• 2013

The surface ozone concentrations changes were investigated in response to climate change over the Korean peninsula for summertime using the global-regional one way coupled Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS). The future simulations were conducted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. The modeling system was applied for four 10-year simulations: 1996~2005 as a present-day case, 2016~2025, 2046~2055, and 2091~2100 as future cases. The results in this study showed that the mean surface ozone concentrations increased up to 0.5~3.3 ppb under the A2, but decreased by 0.1~10.9 ppb under the B1 for the future, respectively. However, its increases were lower than an increase of the average daily maximum 8-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations which was projected to increase by 2.8~6.5 ppb under the A2. The DM8H surface ozone concentrations seem to be therefore far more affected by the climate and emissions changes than mean values. The probability of exceeding 60 ppb was projected to increase by 6~19% under the A2. In the case of B1, its changes were presented with an increase of 2.9% in the 2020s but no occurrence in the 2100s due to the effect of the reduced emissions. Future projection on surface ozone concentrations was generally shown to have almost the similar trend as the emissions of $NO_x$ and NMVOC.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.94-101
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• 2008

Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 미래 기후, 수문정보로부터 가뭄전망 정보를 생산 및 분석하고자 한다. 미래의 불확실성을 고려하기위해 3개 GCMs와 3개 수문모형을 이용하였다. 강수량, 유출량 및 토양수분량으로부터 기상학적, 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄지수로 분류되는 SPI, SRI 및 SSI를 산정하였다. Mann-Kendall test 결과, 미래 가뭄의 경향은 봄철 및 겨울철에 크게 증가할 것으로 전망되었으며, 가뭄발생빈도의 경우 SRI 및 SSI가 SPI 보다 더 높게 나타났다. 미래 기후변화가 기상학적 가뭄 보다는 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2002

Due to the recent increase in greenhouse gases in atmosphere, world climate is rapidly changing and in turn, the earth ecosystem responds upon the climate changes. Comparing the ecosystem in the past, the present shapes of ecosystem is the result of the serious modification. Fishery resources in marine ecosystem, which usually occupy the upper trophic level, are also inevitable from such changes, because they always react to the natural environmental conditions. The northwestern Pacific is the most productive ocean in the world producing about 30% of world catch. From time to time, however, it has been notified that abundance, distribution and species composition of major fish species were altered by climate events. Furthermore, primary productivity of the ocean is not stable under the changing environments, so that carrying capacity of the ocean varies from one climate regime to another. Major climate events such as global warming, atmospheric circulation pattern, climate regime shift in the North Pacific, and El Nino event in the Pacific tropical waters were introduced in relation to fisheries aspects. The current status and future projection of fishery production was investigated, especially in the North Pacific including Korean waters. This new paradigm, ecosystem response to environmental variability, has become the main theme in marine ecology and fishery science, and the GLOBEC-type researches might provide a solution far cause-effect mechanism as well as prediction capability. Ecosystem management principles for multi-species should be adopted for better understanding and management of ecosystem.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.255-263
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• 2023

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinâmico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60° grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9℃ increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2℃ in summer, 2.4℃ in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.

• 대기
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.115-129
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• 2019

Surface winds over the ocean influence not only the climate change through air-sea interactions but the coastal erosion through the changes in wave height and direction. Thus, demands on a reliable projection of future changes in surface winds have been increasing in various fields. For the future projections, climate models have been widely used and, as a priori, their simulations of surface wind are required to be evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the climatological mean surface winds over the Korean Waters simulated by five regional climate models participating in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia (EA), an international regional climate model inter-comparison project. Compared with the ERA-interim reanalysis data, the CORDEX-EA models, except for HadGEM3-RA, produce stronger wind both in summer and winter. The HadGEM3-RA underestimates the wind speed and inadequately simulate the spatial distribution especially in summer. This summer wind error appears to be coincident with mean sea-level pressure in the North Pacific. For wind direction, all of the CORDEX-EA models simulate the well-known seasonal reversal of surface wind similar to the ERA-interim. Our results suggest that especially in summer, large-scale atmospheric circulation, downscaled by regional models with spectral nudging, significantly affect the regional surface wind on its pattern and strength.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권12호
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• pp.1043-1056
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• 2006

온실가스 증가로 인한 기후변화를 이해하고, 다양한 영향평가 분야에 상세한 기후정보를 제공하기 위해서 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 근거한 지역기후변화 시나리오 연구가 수행되었다. 본 연구에서는 역학적 상세화를 위하여 지역기후모델을 이용한 이중둥지격자시스템을 구축하고, 과거 30년(1971-2000)과 미래 30년(2021-2050)에 대한 시나리오를 생산하였다. 미래 시나리오에 대한 신뢰도를 확보하기 위하여, 기준 시나리오에 대한 관측과의 검증이 선행되었다. 기준 시나리오는 둥지격자의 한반도 영역뿐만 아니라 모격자의 동아시아 영역에 대하여 기온과 강수의 계절 및 경년변동성과 일빈도분포를 성공적으로 모사하였다. 또한 경계조건으로 이용된 전구모델과 비교하여 공간적인 특성뿐만 아니라 면적평균 시계열에서도 뚜렷한 오차의 감소를 나타내었다. 미래 기후변화 전망은 기준 시나리오와 미래 시나리오의 차이로부터 유도되며, 평균적인 변화뿐만 아니라 극한 기후의 빈도와 강도변화에 대한 분석이 수행되었다. 미래 시나리오에 의하면 2050년까지 한반도에서는 $2^{\circ}C$ 정도의 기온 상승과 겨울철 강수량의 뚜렷한 증가경향이 전망되었다. 본 연구는 한반도의 복잡한 지형적 특성이 반영된 고해상도 시나리오를 생산하기 위한 방법론을 제시하고, 생산된 시나리오를 이용하여 다양한 시공간 규모에 대한 기후특성을 파악하였다는데 의미가 있다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권spc1호
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• pp.1079-1089
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• 2018

기존 기후변화 영향평가에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구들은 전체과정에서 총 불확실성과 그 전파에 대한 것보다 각 단계별 불확실성에 초점을 맞추어 연구가 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 first-order Taylor series expansion에 기반하여 전망의 분산을 이용하는 Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM)를 제안하였으며, 이 방법은 각 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 증감정도, 단계별 불확실성 비율, 총 불확실성의 전파 과정 제시가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 과정의 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정 분석을 위해 미래 2030년부터 2059년까지를 대상으로 2개 배출 시나리오, 3개 GCM, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하였다. 결과를 분석하면, UDM을 이용한 총 불확실성은 5.45(배출시나리오: 4.45, 상세화기법: 0.45, 상세화기법: 0.27, 수문모형: 0.28)이며, 배출 시나리오의 불확실성(4.45)이 가장 크게 나타났다. 불확실성은 각 단계를 거칠수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 어떠한 배출시나리오를 선정하느냐에 따라 미래 수자원전망이 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 다음으로 Hawkins and Sutton (2009)가 제안한 Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM)을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 분석에서 가장 불확실성이 큰 요인은 배출 시나리오(FUM 불확실성: 0.52)이며, 이 결과는 UDM 결과와 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서 이 연구에서 제안한 UDM은 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 이해와 적합한 분석 및 미래 기후변화 대비 보다 나은 수자원 전망이 가능하도록 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.