• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future climate conditions

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Hardness Profiles of Porcelain Insulators by Climate Changes (기후 변화에 따른 자기 애자의 시멘트 경도 변화)

  • Lee, Joohyun;Kim, Hong-Sik;Kim, Joondong;Choi, In-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.24-28
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    • 2018
  • Insulators used in overhead transmission lines are continuously exposed to a number of mechanical and electrical stresses owing to external environmental factors, resulting in corrosion, reduction in durability, and deterioration. Widely used porcelain insulators are fabricated with cement and porcelain and are especially common in Korea. Changes in the hardness and chemical reactivity of the cement increase the leakage and fault currents and increase the possibility of flashover due to insulation breakdown. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the durability and defects of porcelain insulators. Studies on the reliability of various evaluation methods are needed to prevent accidents by accurately determining the replacement timing and potential defects in porcelain insulators. In this study, the hardness of the cement part of the porcelain insulator was measured using the Vickers hardness test and its composition was analyzed by energy dispersive spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction analysis. The performance of the insulators was compared in two different regions with varying climatic conditions. This study presents an evaluation method of the defects in porcelain insulators by measuring humidity, which can also be used to assess the reliability of the insulators.

Development of an Emissions Processing System for Climate Scenario Inventories to Support Global and Asian Air Quality Modeling Studies

  • Choi, Ki-Chul;Lee, Jae-Bum;Woo, Jung-Hun;Hong, Sung-Chul;Park, Rokjin J.;Kim, Minjoong J.;Song, Chang-Keun;Chang, Lim-Seok
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.330-343
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    • 2017
  • Climate change is an important issue, with many researches examining not only future climatic conditions, but also the interaction of climate and air quality. In this study, a new version of the emissions processing software tool - Python-based PRocessing Operator for Climate and Emission Scenarios (PROCES) - was developed to support climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling studies. PROCES was designed to cover global and regional scale modeling domains, which correspond to GEOS-Chem and CMAQ/CAMx models, respectively. This tool comprises of one main system and two units of external software. One of the external software units for this processing system was developed using the GIS commercial program, which was used to create spatial allocation profiles as an auxiliary database. The SMOKE-Asia emissions modeling system was linked to the main system as an external software, to create model-ready emissions for regional scale air quality modeling. The main system was coded in Python version 2.7, which includes several functions allowing general emissions processing steps, such as emissions interpolation, spatial allocation and chemical speciation, to create model-ready emissions and auxiliary inputs of SMOKE-Asia, as well as user-friendly functions related to emissions analysis, such as verification and visualization. Due to its flexible software architecture, PROCES can be applied to any pregridded emission data, as well as regional inventories. The application results of our new tool for global and regional (East Asia) scale modeling domain under RCP scenario for the years 1995-2006, 2015-2025, and 2040-2055 was quantitatively in good agreement with the reference data of RCPs.

Comparing climate projections for Asia, East Asia and South Korea (아시아 대륙, 동아시아, 대한민국을 대상으로 다른 공간적 규모의 기후변화시나리오 예측 비교)

  • Choe, Hyeyeong;Thorne, James H.;Lee, Dongkun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.114-126
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    • 2017
  • Many studies on climate change and its impacts use a single climate scenario. However, one climate scenario may not accurately predict the potential impacts of climate change. We estimated temperature and precipitation changes by 2070 using 17 of the CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios for three spatial domains: the Asian continent, six East Asia countries, and South Korea. For South Korea, the range of increased minimum temperature was lower than for the ranges of the larger regions, but the range of projected future precipitation was higher. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $1.3^{\circ}C$ and $5.2^{\circ}C$, and the change in precipitation ranged from - 42.4 mm (- 3.2%) and + 389.8 mm (+ 29.6%) for South Korea. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $2.3^{\circ}C$ and $8.5^{\circ}C$ for East Asia countries and was between $2.1^{\circ}C$ and $7.4^{\circ}C$ for the Asian continent, and the change in precipitation ranged from 28.8 mm (+ 6.3%) and 156.8 mm (+ 34.3%) for East Asia countries and from 32.4 mm (+ 5.5%) and 126.2 mm (+ 21.3%) for the Asian continent. We suggest climate change studies in South Korea should not use a single GCM or only an ensemble climate model's output and we recommend to use GFDL-CM3 and INMCM4 GCMs to bracket projected change for use in other national climate change studies to represent the range of projected future climate conditions.

The Policy Trends of the Ocean Space Utilization in Ulsan metropolitan city (울산광역시 해양공간 활용 정책 동향)

  • Won-Jo Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.97-98
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    • 2021
  • In order to solve the problems faced by the modern city facing limitations due to global environmental change, we will review the policies for the construction of a sustainable future city promoted by Ulsan Metropolitan City, and introduce local conditions and location conditions for promoting related projects.

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Elevated CO2 and Temperature Effects on the Incidence of Four Major Chili Pepper Diseases

  • Shin, Jeong-Wook;Yun, Sung-Chul
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.178-184
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    • 2010
  • Four major diseases of chili pepper including two fungal diseases, anthracnose (Colletotrichum acutatum) and Phytophthora blight (Phytophthora capsici), and two bacterial diseases, bacterial wilt (Ralstonia solanacearum) and bacterial spot (Xanthomonas campestris pv. vesicatoria), were investigated under future climate-change condition treatments in growth chambers. Treatments with elevated $CO_2$ and temperature were maintained at $720ppm{\pm}20ppm$ $CO_2$ and $30^{\circ}C{\pm}0.5^{\circ}C$, whereas ambient conditions were maintained at $420ppm{\pm}20ppm$ $CO_2$ and $25^{\circ}C{\pm}0.5^{\circ}C$. Pepper seedlings or fruits were infected with each pathogen, and then the disease progress was evaluated in the growth chambers. According to paired t-test analyses, bacterial wilt and spot diseases significantly increased by 24% (p=0.008) and 25% (p=0.016), respectively, with elevated $CO_2$ and temperature conditions. On the other hand, neither Phytophthora blight (p=0.906) nor anthracnose (p=0.125) was statistically significant. The elevated $CO_2$ and temperature accelerated the progress of bacterial wilt by two days and bacterial spot by one day compared to the ambient treatment. Temperature regime studies of the diseases without changes in $CO_2$ confirmed that the accelerated bacterial disease progress was mainly due to the increased temperature rather than the elevated $CO_2$ conditions.

Development of Biosphere Assessment Modeling Strategy for Deep Geological Disposal in Generic Site of the Korean Peninsula

  • Do Hyun Kim;Wontak Lee;Dongki Kim;Jonghyun Kim;Joowan Park
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.149-164
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    • 2023
  • As part of the safety case development for generic disposal sites in Korea, it is necessary to develop generic assessment models using various geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs) and potentially exposed groups (PEGs) that reflect the natural environmental characteristics and the lifestyles of people in Korea. In this study, a unique modeling strategy was developed to systematically construct and select Korean generic biosphere assessment models. The strategy includes three process steps (combination, screening, and experts' scoring) for the biosphere system conditions. First, various conditions, such as climate, topography, GBIs, and PEGs, were combined in the biosphere system. Second, the combined calculation cases were configured into interrelation matrices to screen out some calculation cases that were highly unlikely or less significant in terms of the exposure dose. Finally, the selected calculation cases were prioritized based on expert judgment by scoring the knowledge, probability, and importance. The results of this study can be implemented in the development of biosphere assessment models for Korean generic sites. It is believed that this systematic methodology for selecting the candidate calculation cases can contribute to increasing the confidence of future site-specific biosphere assessment models.

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Drought for Major Upland Crops using Soil Moisture Model -Focused on the Jeollanam-do- (토양수분모형을 이용한 주요 밭작물의 미래 가뭄 전망 -전라남도 지역을 중심으로-)

  • Hong, Eun-Mi;Nam, Won-Ho;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2015
  • Estimating water requirements for upland crops are characterized by standing soil moisture condition during the entire crop growth period. However, scarce rainfall and intermittent dry spells often cause soil moisture depletion resulting in unsaturated condition in the fields. Changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change have significant influence on the increasing the occurrence of extreme soil moisture depletion. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate agricultural drought for upland crop water planning and management in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is to predict the impacts of climate change on agricultural drought for upland crops and changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics. First, the changes in crop evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the six upland crops, such as Soybeans, Maize, Potatoes, Red Peppers, Chinese Cabbage (spring and fall) were analyzed by applying the soil moisture model from commonly available crop and soil characteristics and climate data, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions.

Impact of Climate Change on Habitat of the Rhynchocypris Kumgangensis in Pyungchang River (기후변화가 평창강 금강모치의 생태서식 환경에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Soojun;Noh, Hui Seong;Hong, Seung Jin;Kwak, Jae Won;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2013
  • This study tried to analyze the impact of climate change on ecological habitat. In this regard, the Rhynchocypris Kumgangensis was selected among the CBIS(Climate-sensitive Biologocal Indicator Species) suggested by the Ministry of Environment. And ecological habitat and restrictive conditions for its survival was surveyed. Future runoff and water quality in the upstream of Pyungchang river were simulated by appling climate change scenarios to SWAT model which is able to simulate water quality. The estimated results explained characteristics on the increase of runoff, BOD, and water temperature and the decrease of DO in the future. The restrictive condition on ecological habitat of the Rhynchocypris Kumgangensis was used water quality during the April to May spawning season since BOD and DO were satisfactory as the first grade of water criteria in the estimated result of future water quality. As a result, it was analyzed that habitat of the Rhynchocypris Kumgangensis in the present was possible about 50~60% of the river. But the habitat would be decreased gradually in the future and would be possible in a very small part of the river in the long term.

A study of the Effects of Siberian Wildfires on Ozone Concentrations over East Asia in Spring 2003 (시베리아 산불이 2003년 봄철 동아시아 오존 농도에 끼치는 영향 연구)

  • Park, Rokjin;Jeong, Jaein;Yun, Daeok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2009
  • Global climate warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases is expected to cause increases in wildfire frequencies and intensity in boreal forest regions of mid- and high-latitudes in the future. Siberian forest fires are one of important sources for air pollutants such as ozone and aerosols over East Asia. Thus an accurate quantification of forest fire influences on air quality is crucial, in particular considering its higher occurrences expected under the future warming climate conditions. We here use the 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with the satellite constrained fire emissions to quantify Siberian fire effects on ozone concentrations in East Asia. Our focus is mainly on spring 2003 when the largest fires occurred over Siberia in the past decade. We first evaluated the model by comparing to the EANET observations. The model reproduced observed ozone concentrations in spring 2003 with the high $R^2$ of 0.77 but slightly underestimated by 20%. Enhancements in seasonal mean ozone concentrations were estimated from the difference in simulations with and without Siberian fires and amounted up to 24 ppbv over Siberia. Effects of Siberian fires also resulted in 3-10 ppbv incresases in Korea and Japan. These increases account for about 5-15% of the ozone air quality standard of 60 ppbv in Korea, indicating a significant effect of Siberian fires on ozone concentrations. We found however that possible changes in regional meteorology due to Siberian fires may also affect air quality. Further study on the interaction between regional air quality and meteorology is necessary in the future.

Anticipation of the Future Suitable Cultivation Areas for Korean Pines in Korean Peninsula with Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 잣나무의 미래 적지적수 변화 예측)

  • Choi, Jaeyong;Lee, Peter Sang-Hoon;Lee, Sanghyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2015
  • Korean pines(Pinus koraiensis) are one of the major plantation species in the Republic of Korea and their natural habitats range from Japan and China to Siberia. The seed of Korean pines, pine nuts, are well know for good food reserves. Due to the global changes which drive the Korean peninsula into the semi-tropical climate, current plantations and natural habitats of Korean pines are faced with the change in the environmental conditions to some extent. To anticipate suitable sites for Korean pines in the future, the location of Korean pines were extracted from the 'Map of suitable trees on a site' that provides the map of suitable trees on a site considering tree species for timber and special uses, and then MaxEnt modelling was used for generating a prediction map on the basis of statistical analysis. As a result, the order of predicted suitable sites were Kangwon-do, Kyungsangbuk-do and Chungcheongbuk-do provinces and sites with high elevation within those provinces were considered most suitable in common. The prediction map of suitable sites for Korean pines presented that suitable sites in the future decreased by 72.2% by 2050's and almost disappeared with a decrease of 92.1% by 2070's on a nationwide scale. In relation to the major production regions of pine nuts in South Korea - Gapyung gun and Yangpyung gun, Kyunggi province and Hongcheon gun, Kangwon province, suitable sites within their areas were predicted to increase by 2050's but become extinct in South Korea by 2070's. To establish a long-term countermeasures against the improvement on forest productivity quality in terms of managing national food security, the result from this study can be considered as a firm basis of predicting plantation suitability. Also, it can be used to predict the changes in supply of forest products and thereby market values in accordance with climate change scenarios.