• Title/Summary/Keyword: Function Prediction

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Predicting blast-induced ground vibrations at limestone quarry from artificial neural network optimized by randomized and grid search cross-validation, and comparative analyses with blast vibration predictor models

  • Salman Ihsan;Shahab Saqib;Hafiz Muhammad Awais Rashid;Fawad S. Niazi;Mohsin Usman Qureshi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2023
  • The demand for cement and limestone crushed materials has increased many folds due to the tremendous increase in construction activities in Pakistan during the past few decades. The number of cement production industries has increased correspondingly, and so the rock-blasting operations at the limestone quarry sites. However, the safety procedures warranted at these sites for the blast-induced ground vibrations (BIGV) have not been adequately developed and/or implemented. Proper prediction and monitoring of BIGV are necessary to ensure the safety of structures in the vicinity of these quarry sites. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict BIGV using artificial neural network (ANN) at three selected limestone quarries of Pakistan. The ANN has been developed in Python using Keras with sequential model and dense layers. The hyper parameters and neurons in each of the activation layers has been optimized using randomized and grid search method. The input parameters for the model include distance, a maximum charge per delay (MCPD), depth of hole, burden, spacing, and number of blast holes, whereas, peak particle velocity (PPV) is taken as the only output parameter. A total of 110 blast vibrations datasets were recorded from three different limestone quarries. The dataset has been divided into 85% for neural network training, and 15% for testing of the network. A five-layer ANN is trained with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, Adam optimization algorithm with a learning rate of 0.001, and batch size of 32 with the topology of 6-32-32-256-1. The blast datasets were utilized to compare the performance of ANN, multivariate regression analysis (MVRA), and empirical predictors. The performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE)for predicted and measured PPV. To determine the relative influence of each parameter on the PPV, sensitivity analyses were performed for all input parameters. The analyses reveal that ANN performs superior than MVRA and other empirical predictors, andthat83% PPV is affected by distance and MCPD while hole depth, number of blast holes, burden and spacing contribute for the remaining 17%. This research provides valuable insights into improving safety measures and ensuring the structural integrity of buildings near limestone quarry sites.

MiR-188-5p regulates the proliferation and differentiation of goat skeletal muscle satellite cells by targeting calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II beta

  • Jing Jing;Sihuan Zhang;Jinbo Wei;Yuhang Yang;Qi Zheng;Cuiyun Zhu;Shuang Li;Hongguo Cao;Fugui Fang;Yong Liu;Ying-hui Ling
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.1775-1784
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to reveal the role and regulatory mechanism of miR-188-5p in the proliferation and differentiation of goat muscle satellite cells. Methods: Goat skeletal muscle satellite cells isolated in the pre-laboratory were used as the test material. First, the expression of miR-188-5p in goat muscle tissues at different developmental stages was detected by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). In addition, miR-188-5p was transfected into goat skeletal muscle satellite cells by constructing mimics and inhibitors of miR-188-5p, respectively. The changes of differentiation marker gene expression were detected by qPCR method. Results: It was highly expressed in adult goat latissimus dorsi and leg muscles, goat fetal skeletal muscle, and at the differentiation stage of muscle satellite cells. Overexpression and interference of miR-188-5p showed that miR-188-5p inhibited the proliferation and promoted the differentiation of goat muscle satellite cells. Target gene prediction and dual luciferase assays showed that miR-188-5p could target the 3'untranslated region of the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II beta (CAMK2B) gene and inhibit luciferase activity. Further functional studies revealed that CAMK2B promoted the proliferation and inhibited the differentiation of goat muscle satellite cells, whereas si-CAMK2B restored the function of miR-188-5p inhibitor. Conclusion: These results suggest that miR-188-5p inhibits the proliferation and promotes the differentiation of goat muscle satellite cells by targeting CAMK2B. This study will provide a theoretical reference for future studies on the molecular mechanisms of skeletal muscle development in goats.

Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Listeria Monocytogenes in Fresh Cut Vegetable (샐러드용 신선 채소에서의 Listerio monocytogenes 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Cho, Joon-Il;Lee, Soon-Ho;Lim, Ji-Su;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Hwang, In-Gyun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2011
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.

Stand Yield Table and Commercial Timber Volume of Eucalyptus Pellita and Acacia Mangium Plantations in Indonesia (인도네시아 유칼립투스 및 아카시아 조림지의 임분수확표 및 이용가능 목재생산량 추정)

  • Son, Yeong-Mo;Kim, Hoon;Lee, Ho-Young;Kim, Cheol-Min;Kim, Cheol-Sang;Kim, Jae-Weon;Joo, Rin-Won;Lee, Kyeong-Hak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to develop a stand growth model and a stand yield table for Eucalyptus pellita and Acacia mangium plantations in Kalimantan, Indonesia. To develop a stand growth model, Weibull robability density function, a diameter class model, was applied in this study. In the development of stand growth model by site index and stand age, a hierarchy is generally required - estimation, recovery and prediction of the diameter class model. A number of grow equations were also involved in each process to estimate diameter, height, basal area, minimum or maximum diameter. To examine whether the grow equations are adequate for Eucalyptus pellita or Acacia mangium plantations, a fitness index was analyzed for each equation. The results showed that fitness indices were ranged from 65 to 89% for Eucalyptus pellita plantations and from 72 to 95% for Acacia mangium plantations. As being highly adequate for the plantations, a stand yield table was developed based on the resulted growth model, and applied to estimate the stand growth with midium site index for 10-year period. The highest annual stand growth of Eucalyptus pellita plantations was estimated to be 21.25 $m^3$/ha, while that of Acacia mangium plantations was 27.5 $m^3$/ha. In terms of annual stand growth, Acacia mangium plantations appeared to be more beneficial than Eucalyptus pellita plantations. Also, to estimate commercial timber volume available from the plantations, an assumption that a log would be cut by 2.7 m in length and the rest of the log would be cut by 1.5m was involved. The commercial timber volume available from Eucalyptus pellita plantations was 68.0 $m^3$/ha, 33% from the total stand volume, 203.2 $m^3$/ha. Also 96.7 $m^3$/ha of commercial timbers were available from Acacia mangium plantations, which was 42% from the 232.9 $m^3$/ha in total. Presenting a good information about the stand growth in Eucalyptus pellita and Acacia mangium plantations, this study might be useful for whom proceeds or considers an abroad plantation for merchantable timber production or carbon credit in tropical regions.

Estimation of Shoot Development for a Single-stemmed Rose 'Vital' Based on Thermal Units in a Plant Factory System (식물공장 시스템에서 Thermal Units을 이용한 Single-Stemmed Rose 'Vital'의 신초발달 예측)

  • Yeo, Kyung-Hwan;Cho, Young-Yeol;Lee, Yong-Beom
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.768-776
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to predict number and fresh weight of leaves, and total leaf area of a single-stemmed rose 'Vital' based on the accumulated thermal units, and to develop a model of shoot development for the prediction of the time when the flowering shoot reaches a phenological stage in a plant factory system. The base temperature ($T_b$), optimum temperature ($T_{opt}$), and maximum temperature ($T_{max}$) were estimated by regressing the rate of shoot development against the temperature gradient. The rate of shoot development ($R$, $d^{-1}$) for the phase from cutting to bud break (CT-BB) was best described by a linear model $R_b$ ($d^{-1}$) = -0.0089 + $0.0016{\cdot}temp$. The rate of shoot development for the phase from bud break to harvest (BB-HV) was fitted to the parabolic model $R_h$ ($d^{-1}$) = $-0.0001{\cdot}temp^2$ + $0.0054{\cdot}temp$ - 0.0484. The $T_b$, $T_{opt}$, and $T_{max}$ values were 5.56, 27.0, and $42.7^{\circ}C$, respectively. The $T_b$ value was used in the thermal unit computations for the shoot development. Number of leaves, leaf area (LA), and leaf fresh weight showed sigmoidal curves regardless of the cut time. The shoot development and leaf area model was described as a sigmoidal function using thermal units. Leaf area was described as LA = 578.7 $[1+(thermal units/956.1)^{-8.54}]^{-1}$. Estimated and observed shoot length and leaf fresh weight showed a reasonably good fit with 1.060 ($R^2=0.976^{***}$) and 1.043 ($R^2=0.955^{***}$), respectively. The average thermal units required from cutting to transplant and from transplant to harvest stages were $426{\pm}42^{\circ}C{\cdot}d$ and $783{\pm}24^{\circ}C{\cdot}d$, respectively.

A Study on the Differences of Cognitive Functions, Neurobehavioral Symptoms and Daily Living Functions According to the Lateralization of Lesion in Patients with Non-Traumatic Subcortical Cerebrovascular Disease (비외상성 피질하 뇌혈관질환 환자에서 병소의 편측성에 따른 인지기능, 정신행동증상 및 일상생활기능의 차이에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Soo;Lee, Young-Ho;Choi, Young-Hee;Ko, Dae-Kwan;Chung, Young-Cho;Park, Byoung-Kwan;Kim, Soo-Ji;Chung, Suk-Haui;Ko, Byoung-Hee;Song, Il-Byoung;Park, Kun-Woo;Lee, Dae-Hie
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 1996
  • Objectives : This study was designed to find clinical factors that could be differentiated by the lateralization of lesion and also find clinical factors to predict the lateralization of lesion. Methods : The subjects were 65 cooperative inpatients and outpatients with non-traumatic subcortical cerebrovascular disease without neurologic and psychiatric history from January 1995 to September 1995 ; 48 patients in Kyung Hee University, Oriental Medicine Hospital, 35 patients in Anam Hospital, Korea University were examined as subjects, but authors excluded 20 patients whose data were incomplete or who had uncertain lesions on brain CT or MRI. The 65 patients were divided into three groups-group with left hemispheric lesion, group with right hemispheric lesion, group with both hemispheric lesion-according to the finding of brain imaging study. Their cognitive functions were evaluated by the Benton Neuropsychological Assessment(BNA), their subjective neurobehavioral symptoms by Symptom Check List-90-R(SCL-90-R), their objective neurobehavioral symptoms by Neurobehavioral Rating Scale, and their daily living functions by Geriatric Evaluation by Relative's Rating Instrument(GERRl) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale(IADLs). Results : The results were as follows : 1) The results of cognitive function test indicated that the group with right hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Tactile Form Perception(left), the group with left hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Finger localization(right), the group with right hemispheric lesion showed low functions in Finger Localization(left). 2) Though, there were little significant differences in subjective neurobehavioral symptoms, the group with right hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in all symptoms except hostility. 3) Though, there were little significant differences in objective neurobehavioral symptoms, the group with both hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in cognition, guilty/disinhibition, the group with left hemispheric lesion showed higher scores in lability of mood, the group with right hemispheric lesion showed highest scores in psychotism, neurotism, agitation-hostility and decreased motivation/emotional withdrawal. 4) There were little significant differences among three groups in Daily Living Functions, but the group with right hemispheric lesion showed the lowest functions in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. 5) As a result of discriminant analysis on each factor's contribution to the prediction of lesion, Finger Localization(left), Phoneme Discrimination and Tactile Form Perception(right) showed that they had the potentiality to predict lesion. Conclusion : The results suggest that there are little significant differences among the groups of three non-traumatic subcortical cerebrovascular disease in cognitive functions, but the group with right hemispheric lesion showed more serious and various changes in subjective and objective neurobehavioral symptoms, and showed low functions in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. This results suggest the possibility that the decline of the daily living function in the group with right hemispheric lesion were due to various symptoms, not due to cognitive dysfunction. The confirmation of the possibility should be worked out through the follow-up study of some groups containing cortical lesion. Apart from these findings, Finger Localization, Tactile Form Perception(right) and Phoneme Discrimination suggest that they can be used as clinically valuable cognitive parameters that predict the lateralization of lesion in non-traumatic cerebrovascular disease.

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The Usefulness of Dyspnea Rating in Evaluation for Pulmonary Impairment/Disability in Patients with Chronic Pulmonary Disease (만성폐질환자의 폐기능손상 및 장애 평가에 있어서 호흡곤란정도의 유용성)

  • Park, Jae-Min;Lee, Jun-Gu;Kim, Young-Sam;Chang, Yoon-Soo;Ahn, Kang-Hyun;Cho, Hyun-Myung;Kim, Se-Kyu;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Won-Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.204-214
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    • 1999
  • Background: Resting pulmonary function tests(PFTs) are routinely used in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment/disability. But the significance of the cardiopulmonary exercise test(CPX) in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment is controvertible. Many experts believe that dyspnea, though a necessary part of the assessment, is not a reliable predictor of impairment. Nevertheless, oxygen requirements of an organism at rest are different from at activity or exercising, and a clear relationship between resting PFTs and exercise tolerance has not been established in patients with chronic pulmonary disease. As well, the relationship between resting PFTs and dyspnea is complex. To investigate the relationship of dyspnea, resting PFTs, and CPX, we evaluated the patients of stabilized chronic pulmonary disease with clinical dyspnea rating(baseline dyspnea index, BDI), resting PFTs, and CPX. Method: The 50 patients were divided into two groups: non-severe and severe group on basis of results of resting PFTs(by criteria of ATS), CPX(by criteria of ATS or Ortega), and dyspnea rating(by focal score of BDI). Groups were compared with respect to pulmonary function, indices of CPX, and dyspnea rating. Results: 1. According to the criteria of pulmonary impairment with resting PFTs, $VO_2$max, and focal score of BDI were significantly low in the severe group(p<0.01). According to the criteria of $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%), the parameters of resting PFTs, except $FEV_1$ were not significantly different between non-severe and severe(p>0.05). According to focal score($FEV_1$(%), FVC(%), MW(%), $FEV_1/FVC$, and $VO_2$max were significantly lower in the severe group(p<0.01). However, in the more severe dyspneic group(focal score<5), only $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%) were low(p<0.01). $FEV_1$(%) was correlated with $VO_2$max(%)(r=0.52;p<0.01), but not predictive of exercise performance. The focal score had the correlation with max WR(%) (r=0.55;p<0.01). Sensitivity and specificity analysis were utilized to compare the different criteria used to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment, revealed that the classification would be different according to the criteria used. And focal score for dyspnea showed similar sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion : According to these result, resting PFTs were not superior to rating of dyspnea in prediction of exercise performance in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases and less correlative with focal score for dyspnea than $VO_2$max and max WR. Therefore, if not contraindicated, CPX would be considered to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases, including with severe resting PFTs. Current criteria used to evaluate the severity of impairment were insufficient in considering the degree of dyspnea, so new criteria, including the severity of dyspnea, may be necessary.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Predicting Oxygen Uptake for Men with Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD환자에서 6분 보행검사를 이용한 최대산소섭취량 예측)

  • Kim, Changhwan;Park, Yong Bum;Mo, Eun Kyung;Choi, Eun Hee;Nam, Hee Seung;Lee, Sung-Soon;Yoo, Young Won;Yang, Yun Jun;Moon, Joung Wha;Kim, Dong Soon;Lee, Hyang Yi;Jin, Young-Soo;Lee, Hye Young;Chun, Eun Mi
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.433-438
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    • 2008
  • Background: Measurement of the maximum oxygen uptake in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been used to determine the intensity of exercise and to estimate the patient's response to treatment during pulmonary rehabilitation. However, cardiopulmonary exercise testing is not widely available in Korea. The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is a simple method of measuring the exercise capacity of a patient. It also provides high reliability data and it reflects the fluctuation in one' s exercise capacity relatively well with using the standardized protocol. The prime objective of the present study is to develop a regression equation for estimating the peak oxygen uptake ($VO_2$) for men with moderate to very severe COPD from the results of a 6MWT. Methods: A total of 33 male patients with moderate to very severe COPD agreed to participate in this study. Pulmonary function testing, cardiopulmonary exercise testing and a 6MWT were performed on their first visits. The index of work ($6M_{work}$, 6-minute walk distance [6MWD]${\times}$body weight) was calculated for each patient. Those variables that were closely related to the peak $VO_2$ were identified through correlation analysis. With including such variables, the equation to predict the peak $VO_2$ was generated by the multiple linear regression method. Results: The peak $VO_2$ averaged $1,015{\pm}392ml/min$, and the mean 6MWD was $516{\pm}195$ meters. The $6M_{work}$ (r=.597) was better correlated to the peak $VO_2$ than the 6MWD (r=.415). The other variables highly correlated with the peak $VO_2$ were the $FEV_1$ (r=.742), DLco (r=.734) and FVC (r=.679). The derived prediction equation was $VO_2$ (ml/min)=($274.306{\times}FEV_1$)+($36.242{\times}DLco$)+($0.007{\times}6M_{work}$)-84.867. Conclusion: Under the circumstances when measurement of the peak $VO_2$ is not possible, we consider the 6MWT to be a simple alternative to measuring the peak $VO_2$. Of course, it is necessary to perform a trial on much larger scale to validate our prediction equation.

The Effect of the Serum Progesterone and Estradiol Levels of hCG Administration Day on the Pregnancy and Fertilization Rate in IVF-ET Patients (체외수정 과배란 유도에서 hCG 주사 당일의 혈청 Progesterone과 Estradiol 농도가 수정율 및 임신율에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Sook;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Bae, Do-Hwan
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 1996
  • Controlled Ovarian hyperstimulation(COH) is generally used to obtain synchronous high quality oocytes in in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer(IVF-ET). Many investigators have studied the relationship between serum hormone levels and outcomes of IVF-ET because there is no accurate estimation method of oocyte quality. Early premature luteinization of follicles before oocyte retrieval is the most troublesome problem in COH for IVF-ET. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists(GnRH-a) are used as adjuncts with gonadotropins for COH in patients undergoing in IVF. The possible benefits of GnRH-a pretreatment include improving oocyte quality, allowing a more synchronous cohort of follicles to be recruited, and preventing premature lueinization hormone surges. In COH of IVF cycles, we investigated whether an elevated progesterone(P4) level on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin(hCG) administration indicates premature luteinization and is associated with a lower fertilization rate. Many investigators have studied that the lower fertilization rates seen in patients with elevated P4 levels might result from an adverse effect of P4 on the oocytes. We hypothesizes that serum P4 levels around the day of hCG may be helpful prediction of out come in IVF-ET cycles. Success rates after COH of IVF-ET cycles are dependent upon many variable factors. Follicular factors including the number of follicles, follicular diameters and especially serum estradiol(E2) levels as an indirect measurement of follicular function and guality have been thought to influence the outcomes of IVF-ET. To assess whether serum P4 and E2 levels affect the fertilization and pregnancy rate, we reviewed the stimulation cycles of 113 patients (119 cycles) undergoing IVF-ET with short protocol with GnRH-a, from March 1993 to August 1994 retrospectively. The serum P4 and E2 levels were compared on the day of hCG in the pregnant group, 45 patients(47 cycles) and in the non-pregnant group, 68 patients (72 cycles) respectively. The serum E2 level in non-pregnant group was $1367{\pm}875.8$ pg/ml which was significantly lower than that of pregnant group, $1643{\pm}987.9$ pg/ml( p< 0.01 ). And the serum P4 level in non-pregnant group was $2.1{\pm}1.4$ ng/ml which was significantly higher than that of pregnant group, $1.0{\pm}0.7$ ng/ml( p< 0.001 ). The fertilization rate was $61.3{\pm}21.3%$ in pregnant group which was higher than that of non-pregnant group, $41.1{\pm}20.2%$ (p< 0.01). We suggest that the serum levels of P4 and E2 on the day of hCG administration are additional parameters that predict the outcomes of IVF-ET cycles.

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