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Compressed Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Latecomer

  • Inyong Shin;Hyunho Kim
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.35-77
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2016 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2016년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2017
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research: A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2011 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향: 2011년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Han, Hwa-Taik;Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Seo-Young;Choi, Jong-Min;Paik, Yong-Kyoo;Kim, Su-Min
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.521-537
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    • 2012
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2011. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) Research trends of thermal and fluid engineering have been surveyed as groups of fluid machinery and fluid flow, thermodynamic cycle, and new and renewable energy. Various topics were presented in the field of fluid machinery and fluid flow. Research issues mainly focused on the rankine cycle in the field of thermodynamic cycle. In the new and renewable energy area, researches were presented on geothermal energy, fuel cell, biogas, reformer, solar water heating system, and metane hydration. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, nanofluids and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included heat transfer above liquid helium surface in a cryostat, methane hydrate formation, heat and mass transfer in a liquid desiccant dehumidifier, thermoelectric air-cooling system, heat transfer in multiple slot impinging jet, and heat transfer enhancement by protrusion-in-dimples. In the area of pool boiling and condensing heat transfer, researches on pool boiling of water in low-fin and turbo-B surfaces, pool boiling of R245a, convective boiling two-phase flow in trapezoidal microchannels, condensing of FC-72 on pin-finned surfaces, and natural circulation vertical evaporator were actively performed. In the area of nanofluids, thermal characteristics of heat pipes using water-based MWCNT nanofluids and the thermal conductivity and viscosity were measured. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches on fin-tube heat exchangers for waste gas heat recovery and Chevron type plate heat exchanger were implemented. (3) Refrigeration systems with alternative refrigerants such as $CO_2$, hydrocarbons, and mixed refrigerants were studied. Heating performance improvement of heat pump systems were tried applying supplementary components such as a refrigerant heater or a solar collector. The effects of frost growth were studied on the operation characteristic of refrigeration systems and the energy performance of various defrost methods were evaluated. The current situation of the domestic cold storage facilities was analyzed and the future demand was predicted. (4) In building mechanical system fields, a variety of studies were conducted to achieve effective consumption of heat and maximize efficiency of heat in buildings. Various researches were performed to maximize performance of mechanical devices and optimize the operation of HVAC systems. (5) In the fields of architectural environment and energy, diverse purposes of studies were conducted such as indoor environment, building energy, and renewable energy. In particular, renewable energy and building energy-related researches have mainly been studied as reflecting the global interests. In addition, various researches have been performed for reducing cooling load in a building using spot exhaust air, natural ventilation and energy efficiency systems.