• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제63권1호
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• pp.47-53
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of this study is to minimize the uncertainty of the median fragility curve and to assess the structural vulnerability under earthquake excitation. Bayesian Inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been presented for efficient collapse response assessment of the independent intake water tower. The intake tower is significantly used as a diversion type of the hydropower station for maintaining power plant, reservoir and spillway tunnel. Therefore, the seismic fragility assessment of the intake tower is a pivotal component for estimating total system risk of the reservoir. In this investigation, an asymmetrical independent slender reinforced concrete structure is considered. The Bayesian Inference method provides the flexibility to integrate the prior information of collapse response data with the numerical analysis results. The preliminary information of risk data can be obtained from various sources like experiments, existing studies, and simplified linear dynamic analysis or nonlinear static analysis. The conventional lognormal model is used for plotting the fragility curve using the data from time history simulation and nonlinear static pushover analysis respectively. The Bayesian Inference approach is applied for integrating the data from both analyses with the help of MCMC simulation. The method achieves meaningful improvement of uncertainty associated with the fragility curve, and provides significant statistical and computational efficiency.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.69-78
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 원자력발전소 비상디젤발전기의 내진안전성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 지진취약도 분석방법을 제안하고 제안한 방법을 이용하여 비상디젤발전기의 지진취약도를 평가하여 정량적인 지진위험도를 제시하였다. 기존의 비상디젤발전기뿐만 아니라 면진장치를 설치하여 지진력 저감효과를 증대시킨 비상디젤발전기에 대한 지진취약도 분석을 함께 수행하여 비상디젤발전기와 같은 대형 회전기기의 경우 면진장치를 통한 지진취약도의 변화를 살펴보았다. 최종적으로 지진취약도 결과를 이용하여 HCLPF값의 변화를 비교하여 면진에 의하여 비상디젤발전기의 취약도를 크게 개선 할 수 있는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 면진된 경우 면진장치의 파괴가 전체 거동을 지배하므로 면진장치의 성능개선이 필요한 것을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제8권6호통권40호
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• pp.31-43
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• 2004

지진취약도 분석을 통하여 교량의 지진 위험도를 평가하였다. 지진취약도 분석에서는 교각 하부의 소성힌지의 거동을 주요 손상인자로 분석하였으며, 또한 한반도 지진재해지도를 근거로 하여 지진발생확률을 산정한 후 이들을 이용하여 교량의 성능단계에 따른 손상발생확률을 분석하였다. 이 연구에서는 교각에 직접 전달되는 지진이 아닌 암반노두에서의 지진의 최대지반가속도에 대하여 지진취약도를 분석하였으며, 비선형 지진해석을 위해서는 층상지반의 영향으로 증폭된 지진하중을 고려하였다. 제안된 방법으로 예제교량의 지진위험도를 분석하였으며, 면진받침이 설치된 교량에 대한 지진 위험도의 저감 효과를 정량적으로 분석하였고, 지진재해지도에서의 조건이 다른 지역에 시공되는 경우의 지진위험도를 분석함으로써 현 시방서의 타당성을 간접적으로 검토하였다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.325-331
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 홍수 시 부유물의 충돌하중을 고려하여 교량의 홍수 취약도 곡선을 도출하였다. 자연재해에 의해 불가피하게 발생하는 사회기반시설물의 손상 또는 기능 손실은 심각한 인명피해 뿐만 아니라 국가적으로 사회적, 경제적 손실을 불러올 수 있다. 따라서 국가주요시설물을 재난으로부터 효과적으로 유지관리하기 위해 취약도 곡선은 중요한 도구로 사용되고 있다. 특히 한국은 산지 지형이 많이 형성되어 있고 하절기에 강수량의 2/3이상이 집중되어, 홍수 피해 가능성이 매우 높다. 홍수 시 교량 파괴의 주원인으로는 부유물의 충돌과 하상세굴이 있는데, 부유물의 충돌은 여러 가지 불확실성으로 인하여 상대적으로 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 FERUM-ABAQUS 기반의 취약도 해석 시스템을 도입하여, 홍수시 부유물의 충돌에 대한 교량의 취약성을 평가하였다. 교량의 취약도 해석을 효과적으로 수행하기 위하여 한계상태함수, 손상도 지수, 확률변수, 유한요소모델, 취약도 해석 소프트웨어 시스템을 주로 고려하였으며, 가속도 및 변위 응답해석을 통하여 모델 상태를 확인하였다. 다음으로는 홍수 시 부유물 충돌에 발생 가능한 다양한 파라미터를 기반으로 교량의 취약도 곡선을 성공적으로 도출하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.586-595
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• 2002

The Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) or seismic margin assessment (SMA) have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plant structures and equipments. For the SPRA or SMA, the reference response spectrum should be defined. The site-specific median spectrum has been generally used for the seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipments in a Korean nuclear power plant Since the site-specific spectrum has been developed based on the peak ground motion parameter, the site-specific response spectrum does not represent the same probability of exceedance over the entire frequency range of interest. The uniform hazard spectrum is more appropriate to be used in seismic probabilistic risk assessment than the site- specific spectrum. A method for modifying the seismic fragility parameters that are calculated based on the site-specific median spectrum is described. This simple method was developed to incorporate the effects of the uniform hazard spectrum. The seismic fragility parameters of typical NPP components are modified using the uniform hazard spectrum. The modification factor is used to modify the original fragility parameters. An example uniform hazard spectrum is developed using the available seismic hazard data for the Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) site. This uniform hazard spectrum is used for the modification of fragility parameters.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.217-230
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• 2006

This paper describes a procedure to develop fragility curves for woodframe structures subjected to lateral wind loads. The fragilities are cast in terms of horizontal displacement criteria (maximum drift at the top of the shearwalls). The procedure is illustrated through the development of fragility curves for one and two-story residential woodframe buildings in high wind regions. The structures were analyzed using a monotonic pushover analysis to develop the relationship between displacement and base shear. The base shear values were then transformed to equivalent nominal wind speeds using information on the geometry of the baseline buildings and the wind load equations (and associated parameters) in ASCE 7-02. Displacement vs. equivalent nominal wind speed curves were used to determine the critical wind direction, and Monte Carlo simulation was used along with wind load parameter statistics provided by Ellingwood and Tekie (1999) to construct displacement vs. wind speed curves. Wind speeds corresponding to a presumed limit displacement were used to construct fragility curves. Since the fragilities were fit well using a lognormal CDF and had similar logarithmic standard deviations (${\xi}$), a quick analysis to develop approximate fragilities is possible, and this also is illustrated. Finally, a compound fragility curve, defined as a weighted combination of individual fragilities, is developed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.569-581
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• 2017

The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based seismic fragility analysis (SFA) approach allows defining more realistic relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. However, the approach requires simulating large number of nonlinear dynamic analyses of structure for reliable estimate of fragility. It makes the approach computationally challenging. The response surface method (RSM) based metamodeling approach which replaces computationally involve complex mechanical model of a structure is found to be a viable alternative in this regard. An adaptive moving least squares method (MLSM) based RSM in the MCS framework is explored in the present study for efficient SFA of existing structures. In doing so, the repetition of seismic intensity for complete generation of fragility curve is avoided by including this as one of the predictors in the response estimate model. The proposed procedure is elucidated by considering a non-linear SDOF system and an existing reinforced concrete frame considered to be located in the Guwahati City of the Northeast region of India. The fragility results are obtained by the usual least squares based and the proposed MLSM based RSM and compared with that of obtained by the direct MCS technique to study the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.431-441
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• 2018

This study provides fragility-based assessment of seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges. Seismic fragility curves were created using nonlinear analysis (NA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Nonlinear response history analyses were performed, in order to calculate the seismic performances of the bridges. To this end, 306 bridge-earthquake cases were considered. A multi-layered perceptron (MLP) neural network was implemented to predict the seismic performances of the selected bridges. The MLP neural networks considered herein consist of an input layer with four input vectors; two hidden layers and an output vector. In order to train ANNs, 70% of the numerical results were selected, and the remained 30% were employed for testing the reliability and validation of ANNs. Several structures of MLP neural networks were examined in order to obtain suitable neural networks. After achieving the most proper structure of neural network, it was used for generating new data. A total number of 600 new bridge-earthquake cases were generated based on neural simulation. Finally, probabilistic seismic safety analyses were conducted. Herein, fragility curves were developed using numerical results, neural predictions and the combination of numerical and neural data. Results of this study revealed that ANNs are suitable tools for predicting seismic performances of RC bridges. It was also shown that yield stresses of the reinforcements is one of the important sources of uncertainty in fragility analysis of RC bridges.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.463-475
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• 2019

In this paper, a procedure to develop fragility curves of structures equipped with semi-active tuned mass dampers (SATMDs) considering multiple failure criteria has been presented while accounting for the uncertainties of the input excitation, structure and control device parameters. In this procedure, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method has been employed to generate 30 random SATMD-structure systems and nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been conducted under 20 earthquakes to determine the structural responses, where failure probabilities in each intensity level have been evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. For numerical analysis, an eight-story nonlinear shear building frame with bilinear hysteresis material behavior has been used. Fragility curves for the structure equipped with optimal SATMDs have been developed considering single and multiple failure criteria for different performance levels and compared with that of uncontrolled structure as well as structure controlled using passive tuned mass damper (TMD). Numerical analysis has shown the capability of SATMDs in significant enhancement of the seismic fragility of the nonlinear structure. Also, considering multiple failure criteria has led to increasing the fragility of the structure. Moreover, it is observed that the influence of the uncertainty of input excitation with respect to the other uncertainties is considerable.

• 국제강구조저널
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.1684-1698
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• 2018

Fragility functions are determined for braced steel moment frames (SMFs) with plans such as square-, T-, L-, U-, trapezoidal-, and semicircular-shaped, subjected to blast. The frames are designed for gravity and seismic loads, but not necessarily for the blast loads. The blast load is computed for a wide range of scenarios involving different parameters, viz. charge weight, standoff distance, and blast location relative to plan of the structure followed by nonlinear dynamic analysis of the frames. The members failing in rotation lead to partial collapse due to plastic mechanism formation. The probabilities of partial collapse of the SMFs, with and without bracing system, due to the blast loading are computed to plot fragility curves. The charge weight and standoff distance are taken as Gaussian random input variables. The extent of propagation of the uncertainties in the input parameters onto the response quantities and fragility of the SMFs is assessed by computing Sobol sensitivity indices. The probabilistic analysis is conducted using Monte Carlo simulations. The frames have least failure probability for blasts occurring in front of their corners or convex face. Further, the unbraced frames are observed to have higher fragility as compared to counterpart braced frames for far-off detonations.